List Mgmt. 2021 Draft picks: 4/33/75

[Deaneus!]

thanks to Lore as always

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

 

[latinoheat]

But you are giving up 3 chances to end up with the best player for 1 slightly higher chance.

The probability of getting the best player with the cumulative chances of 3 first rounders is definitely higher than the probably with 1 pick 1.

Hamish does his best work with late draft picks, so we really weren’t losing anything

 

[Mutineer]

I just wonder if the confidence about these kids who are rated #1 or #2 is always justified. Maybe JHF is one of the cases where it's a safe bet that he'll become a top-liner but that seems to be the exception rather than the rule if you look over the past 20 years. Most of these kids end up being eclipsed by at least one or two kids taken later.

For example, I remember how high people were about Cam Rayner. And he's by no means a bust. He'll probably play 200 games and be a very fine player. But he's already been eclipsed by a handful of players taken later in that draft.

I remember people saying the same about Christian Petracca, they don't look so clever now, xome players take longer than others.

 

[Vhaluus]

Hamish does his best work with late draft picks, so we really weren’t losing anything

We we did give up a second and third rounder for Melbourne's pick

 

[Sweet Jesus]

I remember people saying the same about Christian Petracca, they don't look so clever now, xome players take longer than others.

Well, Petracca went #2 so that's actually another example of the #1 pick being eclipsed by someone selected later.

Don't get me wrong, there are obviously examples of kids taken at #1 or #2 who lived up to that billing. But I think if you look over the course of 20 years, it's quite rare for the kid taken at #1 to actually be the best player from their draft. That's hardly surprising, but it just goes to show that the confidence around that pick is perhaps not justified.

 

[Vhaluus]

I remember people saying the same about Christian Petracca, they don't look so clever now, xome players take longer than others.

Petracca is a pick 2 to McCartin do he's yet another argument that pick 1 isn't usually the best player.

 

[TheVelourFog]

I know people are saying that we were giving up three first round picks for one player and I may be wrong here but is that really true?
It looks like we were moving pick 4 up to pick 1 and moving the Melbourne first to the Kangaroos second. So potentially moving a pick 17 or 18 to pick 20.
Then we are giving up our first next year. So really I think we are only giving up one decent pick to try and get JHF.

 

[Redline]

Never rated Lukocious personally, Cooney would be the only other player I can think of who played as well in the SANFL at the same age.

Rozee showed similar promise but Horne is something else.

Aish was good, played in two premierships.

 

[ringo200]

But you are giving up 3 chances to end up with the best player for 1 slightly higher chance.

The probability of getting the best player with the cumulative chances of 3 first rounders is definitely higher than the probably with 1 pick 1.

I think generally you’re right, but the chances of each pick aren’t random - we pay people to make judgements on that and if we’re not willing to back them in we might as well save the money and pick whoever Callum Twomey gives us in the phantom draft. Either that or get better people.

It’s a risk based on judgement as much as probability.

 

[conVINCEd]

Need to swop pick 4 and Melbourne's pick 18 for GWS pick 2 and their 2022 second, then pick 2 and 2022 first for Pick 1

That would be us giving up even more, as the Giant’s Future Second will be a lot later than North’s.

But would ensure North could get Callaghan, and if we’re all in…

 

[Stiffy_18]

Well, Petracca went #2 so that's actually another example of the #1 pick being eclipsed by someone selected later.

Don't get me wrong, there are obviously examples of kids taken at #1 or #2 who lived up to that billing. But I think if you look over the course of 20 years, it's quite rare for the kid taken at #1 to actually be the best player from their draft. That's hardly surprising, but it just goes to show that the confidence around that pick is perhaps not justified.

Except everyone was shaking their head that Saints went tall (name escapes me at the moment) instead of Petracca who was seen as a clear #1 pick in that draft. It would be like North shocking everyone and not picking JHF this year as he is a clear #1 pick

 

[rezagun]

Horne Francis is the next big time midfielder. Think Dangerfield, Voss, Martin, Fyfe. Thats what he will become IF everything goes as planned. He is that good.
I love how we offered up the 3 firsts for pick 1.
It gives North something to think about the media will tell them their crazy and puts Sydney back into a corner re Dawson.
I also like how we havent offered players. Internally that can be detrimental to the playing group.
From here all we can do is ask North the question what would it take for them to trade pick 1 and get THEM to write down a list of players to pair up with our draft picks.
If its too much we say no thanks and take the best lad available at 4 and look to use the 2 firsts next year on Luko or Rankine. Atleast we are having a crack.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Except everyone was shaking their head that Saints went tall (name escapes me at the moment) instead of Petracca who was seen as a clear #1 pick in that draft. It would be like North shocking everyone and not picking JHF this year as he is a clear #1 pick

I'm not sure this changes the fact that the club that had pick 1 took a kid who was subsequently eclipsed by a kid selected later.

If the argument is about whether the kid taken at #1 turns out to be the best kid in the draft or not, I'm not sure pointing to a kid taken at #2 makes the case.

That aside, there are obviously examples of kids taken at #1 or #2 living up to that billing. But I think the trend over the past 20 years or so is that some kid taken later has often emerged as the best player in their draft.

 

[Vhaluus]

Horne Francis is the next big time midfielder. Think Dangerfield, Voss, Martin, Fyfe. Thats what he will become IF everything goes as planned. He is that good.
I love how we offered up the 3 firsts for pick 1.
It gives North something to think about the media will tell them their crazy and puts Sydney back into a corner re Dawson.
I also like how we havent offered players. Internally that can be detrimental to the playing group.
From here all we can do is ask North the question what would it take for them to trade pick 1 and get THEM to write down a list of players to pair up with our draft picks.
If its too much we say no thanks and take the best lad available at 4 and look to use the 2 firsts next year on Luko or Rankine. Atleast we are having a crack.

None of those players was a #1 pick

 

[conVINCEd]

We can’t highlight the risk of Horne-Francis not being an absolute star without acknowledging the even greater risk that pick 6 and the Crows and Demons’ Future Firsts could also be busts.

The gap between Melbourne’s Future First and North’s Future Second won’t be much.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

We can’t highlight the risk of Horne-Francis not being an absolute star without acknowledging the even greater risk that pick 6 and the Crows and Demons’ Future Firsts could also be busts.

The gap between Melbourne’s Future First and North’s Future Second won’t be much.

There are no guarantees with any pick but that simply reinforces the advantage of having more bites of the cherry in the first round.

A lot of this discussion revolves around how much Adelaide will improve in 2022. What if you finish in the bottom two?

 

[Bearded Clam]

I know people are saying that we were giving up three first round picks for one player and I may be wrong here but is that really true?
It looks like we were moving pick 4 up to pick 1 and moving the Melbourne first to the Kangaroos second. So potentially moving a pick 17 or 18 to pick 20.
Then we are giving up our first next year. So really I think we are only giving up one decent pick to try and get JHF.

well… technically its not true… you’d also have to factor in all the picks we gave up to get the dees first as well.. and the fact that one of those picks, if kept and used on a player instead, could've unearthed a future gun player..

 

[Vader]

The only time 3 first round picks should be offered for anyone is if they have that years Brownlow or Coleman around their necks.

And they're aged 25 or under.

 

[conVINCEd]

There are no guarantees with any pick but that simply reinforces the advantage of having more bites of the cherry in the first round.

A lot of this discussion revolves around how much Adelaide will improve in 2022. What if you finish in the bottom two?

Yep, it’s a risk. But there’s also risk in holding the picks and we end up with pick 9 next year for another ‘just ok’ midfielder.

We desperately need elite midfielders and I’m glad we’re going hard for elite talent.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Yep, it’s a risk. But there’s also risk in holding the picks and we end up with pick 9 next year for another ‘just ok’ midfielder.

We desperately need elite midfielders and I’m glad we’re going hard for elite talent.

You can't select elite talent with pick 9?

There's a pretty long list of top-liners taken with picks thereabouts or later.

 

[ams4crows]

Well, Petracca went #2 so that's actually another example of the #1 pick being eclipsed by someone selected later.

Don't get me wrong, there are obviously examples of kids taken at #1 or #2 who lived up to that billing. But I think if you look over the course of 20 years, it's quite rare for the kid taken at #1 to actually be the best player from their draft. That's hardly surprising, but it just goes to show that the confidence around that pick is perhaps not justified.

Yeah because they're going to the wooden Spooner, if you've won the wooden spoon your club probably has issues, and Massive holes in its list, that's probably why pick 4 and pick 7 turn out better, in all likelihood they are going to a better club who just had an off year so are surrounded by better players so are given an opportunity to develop better.

 

[conVINCEd]

You can't select elite talent with pick 9?

There's a pretty long list of top-liners taken with picks thereabouts or later.

Absolutely - Aaron Naughton comes to mind at 9. But the Saints also had TWO picks just before that and went with Coffield and Hunter Clark.

If ‘more picks’ is the answer, we may as well trade down to multiple second and third rounders.

[I don’t really disagree with you, the chance to nab Horne-Francis is just incredibly enticing. Especially given he’s a South Australian so no go-home concern - that’s a real issue for us. Plus we’ve already done a lot of trading down for more top 30 options]

 

[King Elvis]

Being conservative is boring as ****, and has largely not worked for us.

Roll the dice -

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Yeah because they're going to the wooden Spooner, if you've won the wooden spoon your club probably has issues, and Massive holes in its list, that's probably why pick 4 and pick 7 turn out better, in all likelihood they are going to a better club who just had an off year so are surrounded by better players so are given an opportunity to develop better.

That's a sweeping generalisation. Cam Rayner, for example, was playing finals in his second season.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Absolutely - Aaron Naughton comes to mind at 9. But the Saints also had TWO picks just before that and went with Coffield and Hunter Clark.

If ‘more picks’ is the answer, we may as trade trade down to multiple second and third rounders.

More picks may definitely be preferable, to a point, particularly if we're talking about multiple first-rounders and a club is committed to a comprehensive rebuild.

 

[Crow till I die]

Never rated Lukocious personally, Cooney would be the only other player I can think of who played as well in the SANFL at the same age.

Rozee showed similar promise but Horne is something else.

Go watch luko in his underage year at SANFL in the prelim final for the eagles v sturt run the 2 best key defenders in the league a merry dance on the way to a 4 goal haul...the kid was 16 years old. He looked an absolute generational talent in his pre AFL years