List Mgmt. 2021 Draft picks: 4/33/75

[Deaneus!]

thanks to Lore as always

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

 

[treeman]

How costly are those junk wins against North Melbourne and Hawthorn now

75% of supporters wanted us to win those games and the media made it seem like it was hugely important for player development.
But we probably would have been sanctioned by the Afl if we did tank.

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[70lethal]

I don’t believe this supposed offer is real. I think much more likely we leaked a false rumour to put pressure on Sydney

There's a possible difference in the delivery and seriousness of the offer.

Here's pick 4, 2022 1st, Melbourne's first let's get this done vs

What would it take? Would you take pick 4, 2023 1st and Melbourne 1st?

Adelaide can then say we offered without intend of a deal in scenario 2.

Very different negotiations from Adelaide past 2 years.
How to quote and be competitive without wanting to get the deal done is strategic artwork.
To be seen as going over and above and demonstrate care and thought for your client without going out of your way.

As much as we may think we want to get a deal done for Dawson I'm not 100% sure. Horne I believe is the same scenario.
Being able to present the other guy refusing a good deal is great PR

 

[70lethal]

75% of supporters wanted us to win those games and the media made it seem like it was hugely important for player development.
But we probably would have been sanctioned by the Afl if we did tank.

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Not the Hawthorn game.
They beat GWS drew with Mel just before our game and beat WB and Bris after our game.

 

[Crow_68]

There's a possible difference in the delivery and seriousness of the offer.

Here's pick 4, 2022 1st, Melbourne's first let's get this done vs

What would it take? Would you take pick 4, 2023 1st and Melbourne 1st?

Adelaide can then say we offered without intend of a deal in scenario 2.

Very different negotiations from Adelaide past 2 years.
How to quote and be competitive without wanting to get the deal done is strategic artwork.
To be seen as going over and above and demonstrate care and thought for your client without going out of your way.

As much as we may think we want to get a deal done for Dawson I'm not 100% sure. Horne I believe is the same scenario.
Being able to present the other guy refusing a good deal is great PR

Bang on the money.

Great PR for North in that they were strong enough to refuse our offer - fans happy.
Great PR for us in that we were prepared to go all in for the best player in the draft - fans happy
Great PR for us in showing Sydney the PSD threat is very real and they need to come to the table very quickly - fans happy.

Not for one minute am I suggesting we and NM nodded and winked before sending an ‘exclusive’ to Twomey…..

 

[Bearded Clam]

Personally I think getting pick 4 up to pick 3 could be the sticking point for North turning down the trade.
If the two clubs are discussing the prospect of a trade there's obviously interest from both parties.
How we get from pick 4 to 3 I don't know.

What makes you think there is interest from both sides?…

Its sounds more likely that we sent them an offer and they simply rejected it because they have no interest at all in trading 1.

 

[Mutineer]

I think Covid might be doing a good job of trashing this year's and next year's drafts. At least as far as the Victorian draft prospects go.

Last year at least the players had a body of work up until that point.

HUH?

The Victorian lads especially Victorian Country lads played considerably more football in the NAB League than last year and the APS school footy which a lot of the Vic Metro lads and some Vic Country lads attend played 6 rounds before it was called off. There were also Challenge matches played between Vic Country and Vic Metro, the AFL Academy lads played a game against the Geelong VFL team and quite a few of the Victorian lads played a game or two with their assigned VFL club as well as the Vic Country lads also played some footy for their local clubs when not required for NAB League. The SA, Tassie and WA lads played a normal SANFL and school footy season.

The biggest downer has been no Nationals.

 

[hey shorty]

HUH?

The Victorian lads especially Victorian Country lads played considerably more football in the NAB League than last year and the APS school footy which a lot of the Vic Metro lads and some Vic Country lads attend played 6 rounds before it was called off. There were also Challenge matches played between Vic Country and Vic Metro, the AFL Academy lads played a game against the Geelong VFL team and quite a few of the Victorian lads played a game or two with their assigned VFL club as well as the Vic Country lads also played some footy for their local clubs when not required for NAB League. The SA, Tassie and WA lads played a normal SANFL and school footy season.

The biggest downer has been no Nationals.

6 games when you add in what they missed last year

 

[Mutineer]

6 games when you add in what they missed last year

That was the metro school footy season Nab League lads at U17 and U19 level played considerably more as well as a lot of the metro lads and some Vic Country lads played games in both competitions.

 

[Vhaluus]

75% of supporters wanted us to win those games and the media made it seem like it was hugely important for player development.
But we probably would have been sanctioned by the Afl if we did tank.

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I was in the 25%.

We tank those games, get pick 1 and likely a priority pick as well.

 

[hey shorty]

I was in the 25%.

We tank those games, get pick 1 and likely a priority pick as well.

I'm sorry did North get a priority pick ?? Must have missed that

 

[NCHammertime]

I listened to that interview and Garry and Tim were leading him massively with those answers. I wasnt worried after hearing the interview. Very misleading quote.

He was far more impressive than Macrae and Kelly in their interviews

 

[Vhaluus]

I'm sorry did North get a priority pick ?? Must have missed that

Did north finish last 2 years in a row?

 

[hey shorty]

That was the metro school footy season Nab League lads at U17 and U19 level played considerably more as well as a lot of the metro lads and some Vic Country lads played games in both competitions.

The last full year they played was 2019

 

[hey shorty]

Did north finish last 2 years in a row?

If you think we were gonna get a priority pick I've got some air to sell you

 

[70lethal]

I Doubt Dawson picks us If we finished bottom and I doubt anyone e would come in 2022 so there's pro's and con's

 

[70lethal]

Freo with pick 6 rules us out of trading to Richmond if we want Erasmus.

 

[DJ75]

Freo with pick 6 rules us out of trading to Richmond if we want Erasmus.

Hadn't thought of that. Probably very true. I suspect the splitting of the pick won't happen now. Both clubs seem to be on different paths.

 

[Vhaluus]

I Doubt Dawson picks us If we finished bottom and I doubt anyone e would come in 2022 so there's pro's and con's

Pick upgrade from 4 to 1 is worth more than Dawson anyway. As we've seen from what we are willing to offer for it.

Not that I agree it'd chase Dawson off. He's clearly just after the money. If he wanted a short term shot at a premiership he'd have gone to Port.

 

[treeman]

I Doubt Dawson picks us If we finished bottom and I doubt anyone e would come in 2022 so there's pro's and con's

That's very true.
You've raised a good point.

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[rabidcrow]

But you are giving up 3 chances to end up with the best player for 1 slightly higher chance.

The probability of getting the best player with the cumulative chances of 3 first rounders is definitely higher than the probably with 1 pick 1.

You aren’t giving up 3 chances though

Pick 4 becomes pick 1 - we go from picking a maybe star Vic kid (Callaghan Hobbs etc) to a maybe star SA kid who has at this stage definitely shown more than those available to us. Definitely improves our odds of a long term star

Next years first , 23 and 44 become Dawson and the price to change to the SA wunderkid.

Yes we upgraded 23 to likely 15-18 but as the club (and all recruiters say) it’s the net of the transactions through the whole trade and draft period

Would do this move in a heartbeat

All assumes though that Dawson goes PSD - he massively evens out the offer to North


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[Apsaalooke]

That's not how this works at all...

That logic is so faulty you are either being intentionally misleading or I have serious concerns for your reasoning skills.

1. We upgrade from 4 to 1 this year so a gain for us
2. The Melbourne pick we were going to give away to Sydney anyway now goes to North on the condition they don’t pick Dawson in the PSD. No gain or loss
3. Our first next year goes to North. Our loss and ultimately the price we pay for JHF

 

[Vhaluus]

You aren’t giving up 3 chances though

Pick 4 becomes pick 1 - we go from picking a maybe star Vic kid (Callaghan Hobbs etc) to a maybe star SA kid who has at this stage definitely shown more than those available to us. Definitely improves our odds of a long term star

Next years first , 23 and 44 become Dawson and the price to change to the SA wunderkid.

Yes we upgraded 23 to likely 15-18 but as the club (and all recruiters say) it’s the net of the transactions through the whole trade and draft period

Would do this move in a heartbeat

All assumes though that Dawson goes PSD - he massively evens out the offer to North


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You are literally giving up 3 chances.

You are giving up pick 4, a top 5 pick next year and a pick that is likely 18 next year.

 

[CrowinNT]

yes, but how big were Danger & Fyfe when you stood next to them?

You have such amazing recall.

 

[Vhaluus]

1. We upgrade from 4 to 1 this year so a gain for us
2. The Melbourne pick we were going to give away to Sydney anyway now goes to North on the condition they don’t pick Dawson in the PSD. No gain or loss
3. Our first next year goes to North. Our loss and ultimately the price we pay for JHF

That's shitty logic.

1)Yes we upgrade and USE our first round pick this year. 1 pick used
2)We dont HAVE to give the Melbourne pick for Dawson even if we don't trade it away. The PSD is available either way. We could PSD him and STILL have pick 18 if we chose. 2 Picks Used.
3)We give away our top 5 pick next year. 3 Picks Used

Therefore the total cost is 3 picks

 

[Vader]

Hadn't thought of that. Probably very true. I suspect the splitting of the pick won't happen now. Both clubs seem to be on different paths.

I don't think that it was ever going to happen.

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