List Mgmt. 2021 Draft picks: 4/33/75

[Deaneus!]

thanks to Lore as always

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

 

[Vader]

Assuming JHF is no chance of happening, I would be happy to see if we can get pick 22 from Fremantle in a swap for McAdam (includes later pick swaps as well).
Then I'm willing to offer Melbourne 1st in 2022, pick 22 this year and pick 33 for Dawson, Hayward and 39. That gives Sydney a good pick for Dawson, a good pick for Hayward and an upgrade of a 3rd round pick.

No chance whatsoever of any of this happening - not the McAdam trade, nor adding Hayward to the mix, let alone getting Sydney to agree with it. Heck, based on what they're asking, they wouldn't accept that for Dawson, let alone Dawson + Hayward, let alone Dawson + Hayward + 39.

 

[Dante Thunderstone]

Hi all! I'm a BF newbie, so please be gentle. Just thought I'd introduce myself. I'm a lifetime Crows supporter and like you all I have endured the rollercoaster that has been the AFC over the past 20 years or so, but despite it all, I still love the club and I'm bullish about what we have done to our football department over the past 18 months to get us moving forward again.

I like to consider myself a common sense type operator (I like to stick to the facts and leave personal stuff out of my discussion as much as I can), but I just love robust sports discussion in general, so that's why I have finally jumped on the forum.

I also know an employee or two at the AFC and I have some extended family members that played high level footy and know many current AFL players, so from time to time I do happen across some little tidbits of info. and I will pass on what information I can, but I am not someone who will just post information to create unnecessary gossip, so hopefully everyone will understand that.

Anyway enough about me; I look forward to having some good discussions with you all in the future and I'm looking forward to another growth year from the club in 2022.

Cheers

 

[triggyscrewedus]

JUH doesn’t seem like he’s all that interested in working too hard or doing the team first things. If rumours are to be believed

takes a *lot* more than talent to succeed

Rubbish.

Your just making shit up now.

 

[Vhaluus]

Of those who are in favour of selling the farm to get pick 1:

How many of you realized that the Gibbs deal was a terrible idea before it happened?

I'm noticing a pattern here...

 

[Vhaluus]

Hi all! I'm a BF newbie, so please be gentle. Just thought I'd introduce myself. I'm a lifetime Crows supporter and like you all I have endured the rollercoaster that has been the AFC over the past 20 years or so, but despite it all, I still love the club and I'm bullish about what we have done to our football department over the past 18 months to get us moving forward again.

I like to consider myself a common sense type operator (I like to stick to the facts and leave personal stuff out of my discussion as much as I can), but I just love robust sports discussion in general, so that's why I have finally jumped on the forum.

I also know an employee or two at the AFC and I have some extended family members that played high level footy and know many current AFL players, so from time to time I do happen across some little tidbits of info. and I will pass on what information I can, but I am not someone who will just post information to create unnecessary gossip, so hopefully everyone will understand that.

Anyway enough about me; I look forward to having some good discussions with you all in the future and I'm looking forward to another growth year from the club in 2022.

Cheers

I mean I'm skeptical about the claim of insider knowledge, on the other hand your name is a Brooklyn 99 reference... so for now I'll figure you're ok.

Welcome.

 

[hey shorty]

Of those who are in favour of seling the farm to get pick 1:

How many of you realized that the Gibbs deal was a terrible idea before it happened?

I'm noticing a pattern here...

No you're not

 

[Vhaluus]

No you're not

You're a good example actually. Pro Gibbs trade, Pro selling the farm.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I like to consider myself a common sense type operator (I like to stick to the facts and leave personal stuff out of my discussion as much as I can), but I just love robust sports discussion in general, so that's why I have finally jumped on the forum.

Welcome .....but you may be mistaken about the need for commonsense

 

[hey shorty]

You're a good example actually. Pro Gibbs trade, Pro selling the farm.

I was pro Gibbs after losing a GF yes.

I'm not trading away a large bounty for a very very talented but unproven kid.

Try again Alex

 

[Dante Thunderstone]

I mean I'm skeptical about the claim of insider knowledge, on the other hand your name is a Brooklyn 99 reference... so for now I'll figure you're ok.

Welcome.

Definitely not claiming any direct insider knowledge at all. I do know a person quite well that is involved on game days with the club, but they are not ever going to share the inner workings with me and I wouldn't ask them too either. The club is quite professional now with how they manage their information. Just want to make that clear. I really just hear second hand information like many of you do, but if I can ever clarify information for anyone I will do my best to do this.

 

[Vhaluus]

I was pro Gibbs after losing a GF yes.

I'm not trading away a large bounty for a very very talented but unproven kid.

Try again Alex

Sorry can't hear you, I died.

That being said if I misunderstood your position here, my bad. Sorry.

 

[feenix67]

Of those who are in favour of selling the farm to get pick 1:

How many of you realized that the Gibbs deal was a terrible idea before it happened?

I'm noticing a pattern here...

Look I know you're a numbers guy, but not all drafts are equal. And the Gibbs trade is a completely different scenario.

I'm firmly of the view that picks are a commodity, and that the focus should be on outcomes. So, leaving aside the fact that for the sake of culture, we won too many bloody games, we have a situation where we could leave this off season with:

* A genuine rising star in Dawson, who has the attributes that exactly fit our needs.
* Probably the most exciting midfield SA prospect since Bunji

So essentially, we could leave this period with our midfield complete - Schoey, Berry, JHF, Laird, Keayes, Dawson, Seed, perhaps even Cook.

Who cares what it costs? The outcome is the midfield is done. Our Defence is also pretty much done, and our forward line is probably a small short and maybe a tall (although Gollant will be good and Fish may end up down there) of being done.

The value of the picks we have (in 21 and 22) collectively gives us that outcome. What you're saying is those picks individually are more valuable taking to a player lottery than spending on quantifiable talent. And yes, JHF is quantifiable.

The draft is not a game of numbers, it's a game of value and outcomes.

 

[Vhaluus]

Look I know you're a numbers guy, but not all drafts are equal. And the Gibbs trade is a completely different scenario.

I'm firmly of the view that picks are a commodity, and that the focus should be on outcomes. So, leaving aside the fact that for the sake of culture, we won too many bloody games, we have a situation where we could leave this off season with:

* A genuine rising star in Dawson, who has the attributes that exactly fit our needs.
* Probably the most exciting midfield SA prospect since Bunji

So essentially, we could leave this period with our midfield complete - Schoey, Berry, JHF, Laird, Keayes, Dawson, Seed, perhaps even Cook.

Who cares what it costs? The outcome is the midfield is done. Our Defence is also pretty much done, and our forward line is probably a small short and maybe a tall (although Gollant will be good and Fish may end up down there) of being done.

The value of the picks we have (in 21 and 22) collectively gives us that outcome. What you're saying is those picks individually are more valuable taking to a player lottery than spending on quantifiable talent. And yes, JHF is quantifiable.

The draft is not a game of numbers, it's a game of value and outcomes.

you are assuming that JHF will be a hit rather than a Tambling.

and for that price he does have to be a HIT, he has to wear a Brownlow in the future otherwise we overpaid. Just being a decent player and best 22 will be a failure.

 

[GROTTO]

So essentially, we could leave this period with our midfield complete - Schoey, Berry, JHF, Laird, Keayes, Dawson, Seed, perhaps even Cook.

Who cares what it costs? The outcome is the midfield is done. Our Defence is also pretty much done, and our forward line is probably a small short and maybe a tall (although Gollant will be good and Fish may end up down there) of being done.

That leaves next year as very exciting with Luko and Rankine both out of contract.

Grabbing both, would IMO complete the rebuild in ~ 3 years and then we look upwards in our ladder projectory estimations.

The 8 is achievable in 2023.

 

[feenix67]

you are assuming that JHF will be a hit rather than a Tambling. and I do me a HIT, for that price he has to wear a Brownlow in the future otherwise we overpaid. Just being a decent player and best 22 will be a failure.

I am, and Im willing to bet your house on it

I do get your point, but the same could be said for any player. So at some stage, you just have to take a position on a player and, having done that, do what it takes to get them.

 

[GROTTO]

you are assuming that JHF will be a hit rather than a Tambling.

and for that price he does have to be a HIT, he has to wear a Brownlow in the future otherwise we overpaid. Just being a decent player and best 22 will be a failure.

I think with every trade and or pick, there is always a risk of failure. Regardless of who it is.

I would be happy to roll the dice with SA kid as an elite mid. We havent had one in a long time now.

 

[GROTTO]

I am, and Im willing to bet your house on it

I do get your point, but the same could be said for any player. So at some stage, you just have to take a position on a player and, having done that, do what it takes to get them.

Pick 4, our 2022 1st and Melbourne's 2022 1st is a huge price. Im not sure we can pay any more than that?

To be honest, North have more to lose here. I comfortable in saying one of these picks will end up being A class.

Even if JHF becomes elite and the best, Im more confident that he wont be at NM 4-5 years from now.

 

[GROTTO]

Tas I liked your post about North taking our three 1sts.

Would love for you to share your views here. I just think JHF being from SA and if he turns out to be elite is going to be hard for North to keep him.

Three 1sts now may be as good as your going to get for him? Thoughts?

I mean not to mention, you would accelerate your rebuild massively too.

 

[feenix67]

Pick 4, our 2022 1st and Melbourne's 2022 1st is a huge price. Im not sure we can pay any more than that?

To be honest, North have more to lose here. I comfortable in saying one of these picks will end up being A class.

Even if JHF becomes elite and the best, Im more confident that he wont be at NM 4-5 years from now.

I think NM would be crazy to give #1 away (even for Callaghan), unless there was a flight risk. The problem is, they have to sell giving #1 away to their fans, and I just dont think thats something they can do. So they will back their culture and take him imo, even if we sweeten the deal by dropping their 22 2nd rounder coming back.

The sad part is, when Jason does come back to SA, he will likely go to his step dad's former club.

 

[Vhaluus]

I am, and Im willing to bet your house on it

I do get your point, but the same could be said for any player. So at some stage, you just have to take a position on a player and, having done that, do what it takes to get them.

Sure, but why not take that position with him once we've seen how he goes at AFL level?

Surely he doesn't get any MORE expensive than 2 top 5s and another first rounder?

So if he's at the very top of his price tag now, what do we lose by leaving it a few years and making him a set for life offer if he proves to live up to expectations?

 

[GROTTO]

I think NM would be crazy to give #1 away (even for Callaghan), unless there was a flight risk. The problem is, they have to sell giving #1 away to their fans, and I just dont think thats something they can do. So they will back their culture and take him imo, even if we sweeten the deal by dropping their 22 2nd rounder coming back.

The sad part is, when Jason does come back to SA, he will likely go to his step dad's former club.

But can North literally afford to say NO to multiple 1sts given their financial viability in the AFL?

Sure teams like Hawks, Pies can take a longer time for their rebuild. Im just not sure North can afford to do this and then lose him in potentially 2 years time and then develop new kids again.

I agree about your thoughts of selling this idea to their fans. However, it would be stupid on those grounds IMO.

North of all teams IMO in Victoria wont keep an elite kid from SA long term on their list.

 

[GROTTO]

Sure, but why not take that position with him once we've seen how he goes at AFL level?

Surely he doesn't get any MORE expensive than 2 top 5s and another first rounder?

So if he's at the very top of his price tag now, what do we lose by leaving it a few years and making him a set for life offer if he proves to live up to expectations?

Didnt Cats ask for three 1sts for Kelly?

 

[feenix67]

Sure, but why not take that position with him once we've seen how he goes at AFL level?

Surely he doesn't get any MORE expensive than 2 top 5s and another first rounder?

So if he's at the very top of his price tag now, what do we lose by leaving it a few years and making him a set for life offer if he proves to live up to expectations?

Because it's not about numbers. You are setting his price tag based on picks. The value of those picks changes every year, based on the available talent pool.

You're also losing two years of him being in our system, gelling with the team etc. You're also, of course, risking that he wont want to leave his current club or will want to go to the Power. You're also assuming we will have the cap space, list spots etc.

To be honest, there's more risk in taking #4 to the draft this year then giving it to NM for #1. As for next year, we can cross that bridge when we get to it.

 

[Vhaluus]

Didnt Cats ask for three 1sts for Kelly?

Were there two top 5's in those firsts?

Did they GET three firsts?

They got pick 14, 18, 24 and 37.

FAR less than what we're offering for JFH AND Kelly was an actual proven player who performed at the top level (All Australian and top 5 in the Brownlow)

 

[feenix67]

But can North literally afford to say NO to multiple 1sts given their financial viability in the AFL?

Sure teams like Hawks, Pies can take a longer time for their rebuild. Im just not sure North can afford to do this and then lose him in potentially 2 years time and then develop new kids again.

I agree about your thoughts of selling this idea to their fans. However, it would be stupid on those grounds IMO.

North of all teams IMO in Victoria wont keep an elite kid from SA long term on their list.

I agree, but I think that's the major sticking point for them. I still think if we remove their 22 second rounder from the deal, it may get done, unless they're not confident Callaghan gets to 4. If that's the case, I can understand them saying no.