Analysis 2021 draft thread

[Mighty Lions]

If Ashcroft ends up being a top 3 pick and we have a good season, I suspect our first round pick would be needed to trade for points (unless someone of value asks to be traded). Otherwise, I don't think we'd have enough if we traded it into the future. Would be a great situation to be in though.

strong chance a trade will occur that strengthens our number of picks in the 20-22 draft.

 

[briztoon]

strong chance a trade will occur that strengthens our number of picks in the 20-22 draft.

Bye bye Lachie

 

[briztoon]

I agree. Have done a few calculations on this and its not just about Ashcroft in the end. If Fletcher and even MacMillan go within the first 40 picks or so we are up against it pick wise. There is no way I can see that we can trade our first into 2023. We need to turn that first round pick into as many points as we can. Will probably end up having to try and bring forward our 2nd and 3rd rounders from 2023 as well. Collingwood and Western Bulldogs did some neat work this year to accumulate all those points. But they didn't have a second or third player to match as well, like we might.

We don’t need to trade future picks in to 2022. We only need to turn our first and fourth round picks in to a couple of seconds and a third round pick.

If bids come in the second round or later for any of our kids, we can always carry a deficit in to 2023 on our later round picks.

 

[POBT]

We don’t need to trade future picks in to 2022. We only need to turn our first and fourth round picks in to a couple of seconds and a third round pick.

If bids come in the second round or later for any of our kids, we can always carry a deficit in to 2023 on our later round picks.

Yep.

The only reason I would spend our 2023 picks next year is to trade in a best 18 player to meet an identified and immediate list need. I personally don't think we will have that need, given our depth, so it will be a moot point. But, if we're going to wipe out our 2022 draft with priority selections, we should maintain maximum flexibility for 2023.

The one risk we have is if we end up having two players selected in the first round next year. We wouldn't want a significant deficit in the first round carry over to 2023. But that is deadset a first world problem - having priority access to two first round talents.

 

[Quigley]

I expect us to have 6 or so list spots to work with next year. I am sure we can accumulate points although Ashcroft dropping down to 5ish would certainly help. Maybe a year getting some experience in the forward pocket might help his development long term.

On the Academy there are a quite a few who have some very nice traits but they need to improve their overall game. Not out of the question that a couple of them could step up as well as the guys regularly spoken of. On the talls there is not much to really get excited on from a pure KP perspective. Gejas I think has grown quite a lot this year and I like him as a forward / ruck. McNeil moves nicely but I am not sold on him in the ruck. It would be good to see him play some KPD this year as he could end up as he moves well enough to make the switch.

On Fletcher he is a wing who moves nicely and has elite skills. For me he needs to work on getting to space more for the easy ball.

McMillan is a mid/hff who is aggressive in hunting both the ball and the man. He is handy up forward as far as goals go and good onball. Skills are above average and workrate is good. I like him as a potential option to replace Robbo. He probably starts from a higher base skill set than Mitch and has a bit of mongrel about his game but he obviously does not have the workrate that Mitch does at this stage.

 

[Quigley]

Yep.

The only reason I would spend our 2023 picks next year is to trade in a best 18 player to meet an identified and immediate list need. I personally don't think we will have that need, given our depth, so it will be a moot point. But, if we're going to wipe out our 2022 draft with priority selections, we should maintain maximum flexibility for 2023.

The one risk we have is if we end up having two players selected in the first round next year. We wouldn't want a significant deficit in the first round carry over to 2023. But that is deadset a first world problem - having priority access to two first round talents.

If we kept our 2023 first but wiped out the rest of the draft going into to deficit to match the likes of Fletcher and McMillan then I would have no issue. I do not see any of the Academy kids as first round options at the moment so that could be on the cards.

 

[Dalions]

Yep.

The only reason I would spend our 2023 picks next year is to trade in a best 18 player to meet an identified and immediate list need. I personally don't think we will have that need, given our depth, so it will be a moot point. But, if we're going to wipe out our 2022 draft with priority selections, we should maintain maximum flexibility for 2023.

The one risk we have is if we end up having two players selected in the first round next year. We wouldn't want a significant deficit in the first round carry over to 2023. But that is deadset a first world problem - having priority access to two first round talents.

Hopefully things work in our favour a little with the AFL hopefully lifting the list numbers and cap which will allow us to take an extra couple of picks into the draft to match some bids.

 

[royboys4eva]

Good Preston blood in Wilmot, too, so that's a plus.

Was at Preston markets other week - saw a guy in a Fitzroy scarf Best jam donuts in Melbourne btw at Preston Markets.

 

[scoman]

We don’t need to trade future picks in to 2022. We only need to turn our first and fourth round picks in to a couple of seconds and a third round pick.

If bids come in the second round or later for any of our kids, we can always carry a deficit in to 2023 on our later round picks.

Yeah that makes sense, would be difficult and a little pointless trying to bring the 2023 2nd and 3rd forward anyway.

 

[twhowler]

Huh? The second part of the sentence doesn't follow from the first. Harris Andrews is a giant who can play defence very well.


Oscar went back a few times last year and I remember him being an asset in marking packs.

Harris Andrews is more of an exception. And as good as he is would you want 3 of him back there? My point on giants is that generally speaking key defenders are a bit shorter than key forwards. Defenders need to be more mobile to cover leads / change in direction / ground balls. Forwards can win 4-5 contests all game but have had an impact. Key defenders need to be there for just about every contest. Look at the AA defenders this year - Aliir 194cm and Lever 194cm, Steven May Tom Stewart 190cm.

Did Oscar ever play backline? Can't recall him doing that. Floating back and taking a mark is a very different thing to playing on a key forward. Ben McEvoy has been pretty good as a ruckman playing backline. I can't think of any others.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Harris Andrews is more of an exception.

Ben McKay is also a very tall defender.

And as good as he is would you want 3 of him back there?

I think the best backlines have a mix of traits to cover different types of forwards while also being able to take a lot of intercept marks. But if I had to have three of any one tall defender in the AFL in my backline, Harris would be my first or second choice. He can cover and intercept well.

My point on giants is that generally speaking key defenders are a bit shorter than key forwards.

What you said was, giants cannot play defence well. I've given you two examples of giants who do play defence well. Mark Blicavs is another.

Defenders need to be more mobile to cover leads / change in direction / ground balls. Forwards can win 4-5 contests all game but have had an impact. Key defenders need to be there for just about every contest.

Sure. But none of that suggests giants cannot play in defence. Some of them are very mobile and agile.

Did Oscar ever play backline? Can't recall him doing that. Floating back and taking a mark is a very different thing to playing on a key forward.

He's certainly rested in the backline before. Some players' strengths ar e in zoning off and intercept marking, rather than trying to take a key forward out of the game by covering them at all times. That's certainly a role some giants can play.

 

[scoman]

As an exercise for those as bored as me at the moment, lets put our trading hats on and find a way to get maximum point value in the event we have to match bids for all three of Ashcroft, Fletcher and MacMillan.

We can use this provisional draft order from draft guru, based on this years finishing order:


And lets match bids for the three lads at:

Ashcroft #3 (1788 points after 20% discount)
Fletcher #21 (702 points after 20% discount)
MacMillan #42 (316 points after 20% discount)

Total of 2806 points

Based on the provisional draft order above that leaves us 756 points short.

The points table from AFL.com might be useful.



Have at it.

 

[mattsmob]

As an exercise for those as bored as me at the moment, lets put our trading hats on and find a way to get maximum point value in the event we have to match bids for all three of Ashcroft, Fletcher and MacMillan.

We can use this provisional draft order from draft guru, based on this years finishing order:

View attachment 1289411
And lets match bids for the three lads at:

Ashcroft #3 (1788 points after 20% discount)
Fletcher #21 (702 points after 20% discount)
MacMillan #42 (316 points after 20% discount)

Total of 2806 points

Based on the provisional draft order above that leaves us 756 points short.

The points table from AFL.com might be useful.

View attachment 1289412

Have at it.

Be so bad next season that the AFL just let's us pre-list them without having to give up picks/points.

 

[scoman]

Be so bad next season that the AFL just let's us pre-list them without having to give up picks/points.

Well that was quick. Very much an out of the box solution. I'm not giving you a very good grade though

 

[Dalions]

Be so bad next season that the AFL just let's us pre-list them without having to give up picks/points.

More likely to be that they change it that you can’t match a bid for Father Sons in the first round.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Decent exercise, but if my time on BF has taught me anything is that the Qld kids generally get overrated a year out from their draft.

 

[briztoon]

Decent exercise, but if my time on BF has taught me anything is that the Qld kids generally get overrated a year out from their draft.

Even if Ashcroft is the captain of Vic Metro?

 

[dlanod]

Ben McKay is also a very tall defender.


I think the best backlines have a mix of traits to cover different types of forwards while also being able to take a lot of intercept marks. But if I had to have three of any one tall defender in the AFL in my backline, Harris would be my first or second choice. He can cover and intercept well.


What you said was, giants cannot play defence well. I've given you two examples of giants who do play defence well. Mark Blicavs is another.


Sure. But none of that suggests giants cannot play in defence. Some of them are very mobile and agile.


He's certainly rested in the backline before. Some players' strengths ar e in zoning off and intercept marking, rather than trying to take a key forward out of the game by covering them at all times. That's certainly a role some giants can play.

Darcy Moore.
Jordan Roughead.
Dougal Howard.
Rory Thompson.
Lachie Keeffe.
Alex Pearce.

Some fair talent (and some adequate) in that list of 200cm+ defenders.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Decent exercise, but if my time on BF has taught me anything is that the Qld kids generally get overrated a year out from their draft.

The academy kids are often overrated by KM but don't think it applies to our father/sons. Ashcroft is universally rated a top 3 prospect

 

[Nunez]

Even if Ashcroft is the captain of Vic Metro?

Safe to assume he was referring to the Queenslanders mentioned.

 

[briztoon]

Safe to assume he was referring to the Queenslanders mentioned.

I mentioned a week or so ago that Fletcher is somewhat similar to Zac Taylor, and he went at pick 44.

 

[briztoon]

Two sons of guns to train with Lions in bid to press 2022 draft case

Two sons of former Lions - including a top draft prospect - will train with Brisbane

www.afl.com.au

 

[Nunez]

I mentioned a week or so ago that Fletcher is somewhat similar to Zac Taylor, and he went at pick 44.

Quigley would be keen to hear your thoughts.

 

[Lazza16]

Was at Preston markets other week - saw a guy in a Fitzroy scarf Best jam donuts in Melbourne btw at Preston Markets.

Played in the PDJFA my junior years...a colourful league. Leigh Carlson was my captain for a few yrs u14s u16s.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Even if Ashcroft is the captain of Vic Metro?

That's why I said "generally". The buzz on Ashcroft reminds me of what we used to hear about Sam Walsh. I doubt he'd slip that much if any. But I've lost count of the amount of Qld kids who were pumped up the year before only to drop down the mock drafts/power rankings.