Analysis 2021 trade thread

[Mighty Lions]

I actually think it is a good thing that we didn't go down the path of asking players to take a pay cut and then compromising the Cap for several years during "pay bacK"...we have taken our medicine and can go forward without that millstone.

We did ask them to take a pay cut in 2020 and they did take a pay cut.

 

[Lazza16]

Ceglar told by Hawks look around..........trade radio.....us? Sam Edmund the source

 

[blueiris]

Ceglar told by Hawks look around..........trade radio.....us? Sam Edmund the source

This is our man we should be chasing fantastic ruckman plays well against the best rucks

 

[jackess]

This is our man we should be chasing fantastic ruckman plays well against the best rucks

Would possibly be at the higher end of what we could afford. Maybe if they take CEY or ESmith off our hands

 

[Scubaveg]

Would possibly be at the higher end of what we could afford. Maybe if they take CEY or ESmith off our hands

They might take Smith and a third rounder?


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Nunez]

Would possibly be at the higher end of what we could afford. Maybe if they take CEY or ESmith off our hands

Hawks were interested in Smith in his draft year.

 

[martinson]

Some of the rucks mentioned have been around the block a few times and also likely to make us slower if we want the 2 ruck system.

Ceglar has at least proven he can play in the ruck position.

What we need is someone like Fullarton who can mark and ruck.

Have we closed the book on bringing Fullarton up to speed ? He's more likely to improve than go backwards you would hope.

 

[BangyBangy]

Some of the rucks mentioned have been around the block a few times and also likely to make us slower if we want the 2 ruck system.

Ceglar has at least proven he can play in the ruck position.

What we need is someone like Fullarton who can mark and ruck.

Have we closed the book on bringing Fullarton up to speed ? He's more likely to improve than go backwards you would hope.

Thought he was contracted for 2022. Personally I think there's massive upside for Fullarton, whether he achieves it time will tell. Another preseason, bit more bulk & confidence to use it in marking contests, and time to improve in the ruck.

If both Lane & Smith move past him in 2022 then he might be in strife, again, that's another if.

In terms of what we need, I still think a pure ruck backup in case of injury to Big O. Ceglar is above that role, but would be a good problem to have if a trade is possible.

 

[pod17]

I think Cox has proven not to be at AFL level and Casboult has proven that his career is on the decline. Fort has just had a decent VFL season, Casboult has just been delisted by a rabble of a club and Cox is likely to be delisted by another rabble.

Fair points. I guess it depends on how we are planning on using the second ruck. If it is purely back up, Fort might be a solid option. Small sample size, but he has been beaten soundly (at least statistically) when playing as the number one man. VFL stats look solid, but they can be misleading. Without looking at the opponents, he might have been up against a couple of younger developing prospects that you would expect a 28 year old to have the better of.

If it is to spend more time forward with a couple of stints per quarter in the ruck, I'd say Casboult and Cox both have a body of work at AFL level that shows they could be effective for us. Their strong marking giving us another big target when games are getting strangled a bit really appeals.

All that said, if news of Ceglar being gettable is true, I'd take him over the three we've currently been linked to (salary availability permitting).

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Fair points. I guess it depends on how we are planning on using the second ruck. If it is purely back up, Fort might be a solid option. Small sample size, but he has been beaten soundly (at least statistically) when playing as the number one man. VFL stats look solid, but they can be misleading. Without looking at the opponents, he might have been up against a couple of younger developing prospects that you would expect a 28 year old to have the better of.

If it is to spend more time forward with a couple of stints per quarter in the ruck, I'd say Casboult and Cox both have a body of work at AFL level that shows they could be effective for us. Their strong marking giving us another big target when games are getting strangled a bit really appeals.

Now that Archie is gone, at minimum we're looking for a proper backup ruck, unless we plan to have Fullarton be the full-time ruck if Oscar ever gets injured or suspended, which I don't think would be wise. I wonder if we're actually looking for someone who can perform both roles though, since Fullarton hasn't fully established himself as the Hipwood replacement either. How does Ceglar go up forward? Haven't paid a lot of attention to that part of his game.

 

[BRAB]

Operation get Ceglar begins.

 

[BangyBangy]

Operation get Ceglar begins.

If we get him over the line would you say it's a bit of a feather in our cap?

 

[BRAB]

If we get him over the line would you say it's a bit of a feather in our cap?

Absolutely. Feathers everywhere

 

[lionsrules]

If we get him over the line would you say it's a bit of a feather in our cap?

More like a peacock

 

[Dalions]

Operation get Ceglar begins.

Can we afford the upward of 400k price tag?

 

[Dalions]

More like a peacock

They have pretty big feathers

 

[Nunez]

Can we afford the upward of 400k price tag?

Yes.

 

[BangyBangy]

Can we afford the upward of 400k price tag?

Also being linked (just via suitability) to Geelong and Collingwood by Matthew Lloyd. Hard to see either of those two clubs being able to afford that either. Especially Collingwood. Geelong might just sling him a cotton on franchise post career.

Might just stay at the Hawks.

Edit: It was the Doggies not Collingwood he was also linked to. Not a bad fit to be honest. But the Doggies cupboard in terms of draft picks is very bare.

 

[Jon Brown]

Can we afford the upward of 400k price tag?

Hawks may pay some of his salary considering they’re trying to offload a contracted player.

 

[pod17]

Now that Archie is gone, at minimum we're looking for a proper backup ruck, unless we plan to have Fullarton be the full-time ruck if Oscar ever gets injured or suspended, which I don't think would be wise. I wonder if we're actually looking for someone who can perform both roles though, since Fullarton hasn't fully established himself as the Hipwood replacement either. How does Ceglar go up forward? Haven't paid a lot of attention to that part of his game.

Yes, true. I think you're probably right - probably someone to perform both roles.

Fages played Oscar and Stef in tandem, with Stef doing the primary rucking and Oscar providing relief with more time spent forward. I guess that was before Daniher, so not sure if that changes his mindset, but you'd think he'd at least explore that arrangement again. That's why I don't mind the idea of Cox /Casboult, with Oscar as the main man (if we can't get Ceglar).

Again, cap permitting, but getting Cox/Casboult might not mean we don't look at a backup primary ruck like Fort so we can persist with that two ruck structure in the event that Oscar goes down.

Ceglar is pretty handy up forward for a big guy. No Brad Ottens, but serviceable. I think him and Oscar aren't too far apart in terms of their forward half ability. He showed in 2016 he could play that back up role to McEvoy.

 

[MacMum]

Jack Gunston

19

Jack Gunston

Age

34

Ht

193cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.5

4star

K

10.5

4star

HB

5.0

4star

M

5.7

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.9

5star

D

10.6

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

2.6

2star

M

4.3

4star

T

1.7

3star

G

1.6

5star

D

11.2

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

4.2

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.6

4star

G

0.6

3star

was mentioned as a trade for us this morning on SEN with Kane Cornes

Kane Cornes

Age

43

Ht

183cm

Wt

78kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.5

5star

K

12.5

5star

HB

11.0

5star

M

5.2

5star

T

3.3

5star

CL

2.6

4star

No current season stats available

D

13.0

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.2

3star

.......said probably won't happen but with our record of fixing older players from other clubs would be a good move for both.

 

[briztoon]

Hawks may pay some of his salary considering they’re trying to offload a contracted player.

Hawks are going to want one of our first round picks if they’re paying part of his salary.

 

[KennyP#42]

Jack Gunston was mentioned as a trade for us this morning on SEN with Kane Cornes.......said probably won't happen but with our record of fixing older players from other clubs would be a good move for both.

Dream scenario IMO… but from observing the chat, doubt we can afford him - hawks feel like paying any? Haha

 

[BangyBangy]

Hawks are going to want one of our first round picks if they’re paying part of his salary.

I doubt they'd be asking for a first round pick for a 30 year old ruckman even if they were paying part of his salary.

Maybe they'd ask whichever team Gubby Allen is now working for, but only in hope.

 

[twhowler]

Interesting times.

Ceglar seems a very different proposition to Fort. To get Ceglar, aside from pick needed and salary cap, you would assume he would need to be told he will be a default selection as long as he is playing well. And I think from Fagan if he tells you that, you trust him. If he can go to the Dogs and be their number 1 man, why would he come to us to play ressies?

So if we do get Ceglar, I would assume Ceglar main ruck, Oscar to play mainly forward with Daniher and McStay. Which makes it interesting if / when Hippy comes back next year. Who gets dropped?!? Maybe the plan would be well if it comes to that in round 18, it's survival of the fittest. And having cover is always good - there is every chance at least one of Ceglar, Hipwood, McStay, McInerney, Daniher is not fit for every game once Hippy returns.

If we get / end up with Fort instead, it would be less certain what we would do from round 1.
Could be that Fort is backup, so Oscar ruck, Daniher and McStay as locks for forward, and third forward is any of Fullarton, Lester, Andrews, depending on how radical we get.
Or if Fort impresses in the ruck and we figure Oscar is our third best key forward, it's Fort as ruck, with Daniher, Oscar, McStay as forwards. Fort and Oscar might be a 50/50 ruck sharing basis, with 20% bench time for each.

On balance I would prefer Ceglar approach. It gives us more genuine options both in terms of set-up and injury cover. It shouldn't cost us too much, so it's a slightly more aggresive approach for a flag in 2022 while not going all in and hurting our changes in 2023 onwards. But if we are competing with the Dogs i am not sure we can pull it off. The main downside would it would really put Fullarton on the backburner. I think he could be quite good. But you can't make decisions based on developing a player. Ceglar is 31 in Feb so Fullarton could be told don't worry, you will get your time.