Preview 2022 AFL National Draft Preview Thread

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giantroo

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Shinboner1

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Scully would be fantastic for us. 204cm good key forwards don't grow on trees and I assume we'll grab 1-2 KPDs mid year. I think we have to look past comben as the great white hope and actually take someone else who can kick goals and mark in the draft.
At the very least it creates competition and depth for a much needed position on field
 

ferball

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Scully would be fantastic for us. 204cm good key forwards don't grow on trees and I assume we'll grab 1-2 KPDs mid year. I think we have to look past comben as the great white hope and actually take someone else who can kick goals and mark in the draft.
At the very least it creates competition and depth for a much needed position on field
The sooner we take all our eggs out of the Comben basket the more likely he is to come good.
 

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blackshadow

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Just a thought would we do this
2023 first round pick and goldy to the bulldogs for JUH
We might but would the dogs?

English well on the way to being a premier ruck makes Goldie nothing more than back-up and dogs will have put a couple of years development into JUH. Unless he wants out I reckon dogs want to keep him.
 

Sphynx

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Scully would be fantastic for us. 204cm good key forwards don't grow on trees and I assume we'll grab 1-2 KPDs mid year. I think we have to look past comben as the great white hope and actually take someone else who can kick goals and mark in the draft.
At the very least it creates competition and depth for a much needed position on field

I want to see him at the champs first and I'd like to see him at SANFL level before the end of the season.

He's a ruckman that's moved forward this season.

From the vision I have seen of him, he's certainly mobile (for 204cm), but I'm not sure he's Max King/Joe Danniher/Darcy Moore mobile. He looks slightly more lumbering with just an average leap, there's some alarm bells for me at the next level.

A lot of his goals have come with his feet planted on the ground and simply outreaching his opponent who he has a 10cm+ reach advantage over. He's not going to have that at AFL level. I haven't seen too much of him hitting the ball at the highest point and simply being unspoilable like you saw of those other 3 at u/18 level.

I'm not sure he's got elite speed to get separation either against the best AFL defenders.

This is nit picking, he certainly has positives. He has decent enough hands in the marking contest (I wouldn't call them elite), he's definitely mobile (Ben Brown kind of mobile IMO) and he's a lovely kick for goal with a very similar kicking technique to Nick Larkey. Alot of his contested marking stats are because he has a defender hanging off of him and he simply outreaches and marks on their head, rather than being "real" contested marks applicable to AFL football where's he's going to have to get separation above a pack and above 200cm defenders reach.

The problem you find, if they don't have the explosiveness on the lead or vertically at this age, they certainly wont have it when they put on another 20kgs.

Thilthorpe was slightly similar, but he had just enough power, especially when he was playing on the ball, that you could see he was going to have that bit of separation at AFL level. He also had a naturally powerful build like a Hawkins.
 
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Souup

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I want to see him at the champs first and I'd like to see him at SANFL level before the end of the season.

He's a ruckman that's moved forward this season.

From the vision I have seen of him, he's certainly mobile (for 204cm), but I'm not sure he's Max King/Joe Danniher/Darcy Moore mobile. He looks slightly more lumbering with just an average leap, there's some alarm bells for me at the next level.

A lot of his goals have come with his feet planted on the ground and simply outreaching his opponent who he has a 10cm+ reach advantage over. He's not going to have that at AFL level. I haven't seen too much of him hitting the ball at the highest point and simply being unspoilable like you saw of those other 3 at u/18 level.

I'm not sure he's got elite speed to get separation either against the best AFL defenders.

This is nit picking, he certainly has positives. He has decent enough hands in the marking contest (I wouldn't call them elite), he's definitely mobile (Ben Brown kind of mobile IMO) and he's a lovely kick for goal with a very similar kicking technique to Nick Larkey. Alot of his contested marking stats are because he has a defender hanging off of him and he simply outreaches and marks on their head, rather than being "real" contested marks applicable to AFL football where's he's going to have to get separation above a pack and above 200cm defenders reach.

The problem you find, if they don't have the explosiveness on the lead or vertically at this age, they certainly wont have it when they put on another 20kgs.

Thilthorpe was slightly similar, but he had just enough power, especially when he was playing on the ball, that you could see he was going to have that bit of separation at AFL level. He also had a naturally powerful build like a Hawkins.

Great stuff here and I agree with most of your reservations. The one I probably don't agree on is your comment that he lacks the ability to get separation on the lead. I'm keen to see his fitness testing.

I could write more but I'll try keep it brief: I feel like his nous/natural ability as a forward is his best trait. The most annoying thing about this is that in many ways, it's almost intangible. The

If playing well at this level was as simple as being 200cm and outsizing your opponents then we'd see guys performing like this every year. The reality is that we don't, because there's something special about Tom Scully's forward craft, timing, IQ etc. Averaging 5.3 goals a game and 6.6 shots registering a score is clearly operating on another level.

In saying all this, performance at the U18 Champs is going to be more important for him than anyone else in this draft pool and bombing there will sink his draft position for sure.
 

shimaburnsgrieg

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Don't we already have a 202cm Forward/Ruck project player on our list - taken at number 1 in last years PSD?

How many of these types can you have when there are glaring holes in nearly every other part of the ground for us?
 

Krakoueraddict

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Rough Top 50 Rankings update w/ Tiers:

Tier 1

1. George Wardlaw 18/07/04 - Oakleigh Chargers - 181cm Balanced Mid
2. Jedd Busslinger 11/03/04 - East Perth - 195cm - Key Defender
3. Tom Scully 02/11/04 – West Adelaide – 204cm Key Forward
_________________________________________________________________
Tier 2
4. Isaac Keeler 23/04/04 - North Adelaide - 197cm Ruck/Forward
5. Anthony Munkara - West Adelaide – 190cm – Medium Forward
6. Will Ashcroft 06/05/04 - Sandringham Dragons - 183cm Midfielder
7. Harry Lemmey 30/01/04 - West Adelaide - 199cm Key Forward
8. Lachlan Cowan 01/12/04 - Tasmania Devils - 187cm - Rebound defender
_________________________________________________________________
Tier 3
9. Mattaes Phillipou 27/12/04 – WWT – 192cm Midfielder
10. Elijah Tsatas 18/10/04 - Oakleigh Chargers - 184cm Balanced Mid
11. Mitch Szybkowski 09/01/04 – Dandenong Stingrays – 186cm Midfielder
12. Elijah Hewett 27/05/04 - Swan Districts – 27/05/04 - 186cm Midfielder
13. Bailey Humphrey 11/09/04 – Gippsland Power – 184cm Mid/Forward
14. Jhye Clark 23/07/04 - Geelong Falcons - 180cm Midfielder
_________________________________________________________________
Tier 4
15. Jakob Ryan 20/09/2004 – Glenelg – 188cm
16. Brayden George 13/01/04 – Murray Bushrangers – 185cm Forward
17. Harry Sheezel 13/10/04 - Sandringham Dragons - 183cm Forward/Mid
18. Oliver Hollands 16/01/04 – Murray Bushrangers – 182cm Midfielder
_________________________________________________________________
Tier 5
19. Harry Barnett 22/01/04 – West Adelaide – 202cm Ruck
20. Jason Gillbee 15/04/04 – Bendigo Pioneers – 190cm Midfielder
21. Cam Mackenzie 21/01/04 – Sandringham Dragons – 187cm Forward/Mid
22. Henry Hustwaite 20/07/04 – Dandenong Stingrays – 193cm Midfielder/Defender
23. Jackson Broadbent 02/12/04 - Peel Thunder - 202cm Ruck
24. Kobe Ryan 17/02/04 – West Adelaide – 183cm Midfielder
25. Nick Sadler 08/01/04 – Sturt – 180cm Half back
26. Lloyd Johnston 10/08/04 – NT Thunder - ???cm Rebound defender
27. Jed Hagan 15/10/04 – East Fremantle – 175cm Midfielder
28. Seth Campbell 29/12/04 – Tasmania Devils – 182cm Forward
_________________________________________________________________
Tier 6
29. Jaiden Magor 16/02/04 - South Adelaide - 185cm Forward/midfielder
30. Darcy Jones 03/04/04 Swan Districts – 173cm Wing
31. Callum Verrell 22/04/04 – Eastern Ranges – 187cm Defender
32. Sam Gilbey 14/05/04 - Claremont - 185cm Rebounding/3rd tall defender
33. Adam D'Aloia 09/04/04 - Woodville-West Torrens 184cm Midfielder
34. Aaron Cadman 03/03/04 – GWV Rebels – 194cm Forward
35. Kane Bevan 25/04/04 – West Perth – 192cm Midfielder
36. Matthew Jefferson 08/03/04 – Oakleigh Chargers – 194cm Key forward
_________________________________________________________________
Tier 7
37. Jayden Davis ????????? – Glenelg – 182cm Forward
38. Alwyn Davey Jr – 26/02/04 – Oakleigh Chargers – 180cm Forward
39. Rye Penny 03/01/04 – Calder Cannons – 185cm Defender
40. Charlie Clarke 04/01/04 – Sandringham Dragons – 182cm Small Forward
41. Cooper Harvey 12/07/04 – Northern Knights – 180cm Midfielder
_________________________________________________________________
Tier 8
42. Lewis Hayes 17/12/04 – Eastern Ranges – 195cm Key Defender
43. Jaxon Binns 29/10/04 – Dandenong Stingrays – 182cm Forward
44. Billy Dowling 01/07/04 – North Adelaide – 187cm Midfielder
45. Taj Campbell-Farrell 29/06/04 – Dandenong Stingrays – 185cm Midfielder
46. Matthew Payne – Western Jets – 174cm Forward
47. James Van Es 07/08/04 – GWV Rebels – 196cm Key Defender
48. Hudson O’Keefe 16/12/04 – Oakleigh Chargers 201cm Ruck
49. Blake Hansen 08/04/04 – WWT – 178cm Wing
50. Luke Teal 20/05/04 – Oakleigh Chargers – 188cm Wing

Any questions and I can try get around to answering.
Love your work Souup, I know everyone around this place appreciates the time and effort you put in for us plebs to have a better insight.
I would like to know who you'd want at our current picks? Who is the 1 player out of tier 1, and 1 player out of tier 8 that you'd love to see at the club?
 

Souup

Norm Smith Medallist
May 8, 2005
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Love your work Souup, I know everyone around this place appreciates the time and effort you put in for us plebs to have a better insight.
I would like to know who you'd want at our current picks? Who is the 1 player out of tier 1, and 1 player out of tier 8 that you'd love to see at the club?

Part of the idea behind tiers is that those players are close enough that you could take any of them and be justified. I have ordered them within tiers, so that if you put a gun to my head and force me to rank them, that's how I'd rank players within those tiers. Based on the situation we find ourselves in, even though I have Wardlaw #1, I'd take Busslinger, because he's close enough talent-wise to Wardlaw that I wouldn't have a problem with it.

The hope would be (and this generally happens for clubs) that someone I rate around ~30 would slip to around that tier 8 range. It would never happen that a club with say pick 45, would need to pick someone they rate at 40 or later. It's pretty much a guarantee that they'll have someone who's in their top 30-35 still around.

Darcy Jones, Callum Verrell, Rye Penny, Lewis Hayes and and Matthew Payne are all guys I like that could be around with a late selection.
 

Sphynx

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Great stuff here and I agree with most of your reservations. The one I probably don't agree on is your comment that he lacks the ability to get separation on the lead. I'm keen to see his fitness testing.

I could write more but I'll try keep it brief: I feel like his nous/natural ability as a forward is his best trait. The most annoying thing about this is that in many ways, it's almost intangible. The

If playing well at this level was as simple as being 200cm and outsizing your opponents then we'd see guys performing like this every year. The reality is that we don't, because there's something special about Tom Scully's forward craft, timing, IQ etc. Averaging 5.3 goals a game and 6.6 shots registering a score is clearly operating on another level.

In saying all this, performance at the U18 Champs is going to be more important for him than anyone else in this draft pool and bombing there will sink his draft position for sure.

Cheers.

I wasn't claiming he can't get separation at SANFL u/18 level, he clearly can, I was questioning whether he was quick enough the get separation at AFL level, where the defenders are exponentially faster as well as all the other third stalls and intercept defenders cutting off leading channels. I'm not sure he's any quicker than someone like Drew Petrie.

You are right about his output, he's clearly at the very least a Jye Amiss level talent, it's just whether he's a Max King/Thilthorpe top 2-3 pick style 200cm+ forward is my main query.

I've no doubt he's going to be a dangerous and capable AFL forward, it's just whether he's worth the top 2 pick investment we will likely have and whether we can overlook a Wardlaw with those question marks on the table.


The last thing we need at the moment is a Josh Schache or Patty McCartin bomb at the top of the draft...


I'm hoping he comes out and kicks multiple 5+ bags in the champs in all honesty.
 

Mav

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Rough Top 50 Rankings update w/ Tiers:

Tier 1

1. George Wardlaw 18/07/04 - Oakleigh Chargers - 181cm Balanced Mid
2. Jedd Busslinger 11/03/04 - East Perth - 195cm - Key Defender
3. Tom Scully 02/11/04 – West Adelaide – 204cm Key Forward
_________________________________________________________________
Tier 2
4. Isaac Keeler 23/04/04 - North Adelaide - 197cm Ruck/Forward
5. Anthony Munkara - West Adelaide – 190cm – Medium Forward
6. Will Ashcroft 06/05/04 - Sandringham Dragons - 183cm Midfielder
7. Harry Lemmey 30/01/04 - West Adelaide - 199cm Key Forward
8. Lachlan Cowan 01/12/04 - Tasmania Devils - 187cm - Rebound defender
_________________________________________________________________
Tier 3
9. Mattaes Phillipou 27/12/04 – WWT – 192cm Midfielder
10. Elijah Tsatas 18/10/04 - Oakleigh Chargers - 184cm Balanced Mid
11. Mitch Szybkowski 09/01/04 – Dandenong Stingrays – 186cm Midfielder
12. Elijah Hewett 27/05/04 - Swan Districts – 27/05/04 - 186cm Midfielder
13. Bailey Humphrey 11/09/04 – Gippsland Power – 184cm Mid/Forward
14. Jhye Clark 23/07/04 - Geelong Falcons - 180cm Midfielder
_________________________________________________________________
Tier 4
15. Jakob Ryan 20/09/2004 – Glenelg – 188cm
16. Brayden George 13/01/04 – Murray Bushrangers – 185cm Forward
17. Harry Sheezel 13/10/04 - Sandringham Dragons - 183cm Forward/Mid
18. Oliver Hollands 16/01/04 – Murray Bushrangers – 182cm Midfielder
_________________________________________________________________
Tier 5
19. Harry Barnett 22/01/04 – West Adelaide – 202cm Ruck
20. Jason Gillbee 15/04/04 – Bendigo Pioneers – 190cm Midfielder
21. Cam Mackenzie 21/01/04 – Sandringham Dragons – 187cm Forward/Mid
22. Henry Hustwaite 20/07/04 – Dandenong Stingrays – 193cm Midfielder/Defender
23. Jackson Broadbent 02/12/04 - Peel Thunder - 202cm Ruck
24. Kobe Ryan 17/02/04 – West Adelaide – 183cm Midfielder
25. Nick Sadler 08/01/04 – Sturt – 180cm Half back
26. Lloyd Johnston 10/08/04 – NT Thunder - ???cm Rebound defender
27. Jed Hagan 15/10/04 – East Fremantle – 175cm Midfielder
28. Seth Campbell 29/12/04 – Tasmania Devils – 182cm Forward
_________________________________________________________________
Tier 6
29. Jaiden Magor 16/02/04 - South Adelaide - 185cm Forward/midfielder
30. Darcy Jones 03/04/04 Swan Districts – 173cm Wing
31. Callum Verrell 22/04/04 – Eastern Ranges – 187cm Defender
32. Sam Gilbey 14/05/04 - Claremont - 185cm Rebounding/3rd tall defender
33. Adam D'Aloia 09/04/04 - Woodville-West Torrens 184cm Midfielder
34. Aaron Cadman 03/03/04 – GWV Rebels – 194cm Forward
35. Kane Bevan 25/04/04 – West Perth – 192cm Midfielder
36. Matthew Jefferson 08/03/04 – Oakleigh Chargers – 194cm Key forward
_________________________________________________________________
Tier 7
37. Jayden Davis ????????? – Glenelg – 182cm Forward
38. Alwyn Davey Jr – 26/02/04 – Oakleigh Chargers – 180cm Forward
39. Rye Penny 03/01/04 – Calder Cannons – 185cm Defender
40. Charlie Clarke 04/01/04 – Sandringham Dragons – 182cm Small Forward
41. Cooper Harvey 12/07/04 – Northern Knights – 180cm Midfielder
_________________________________________________________________
Tier 8
42. Lewis Hayes 17/12/04 – Eastern Ranges – 195cm Key Defender
43. Jaxon Binns 29/10/04 – Dandenong Stingrays – 182cm Forward
44. Billy Dowling 01/07/04 – North Adelaide – 187cm Midfielder
45. Taj Campbell-Farrell 29/06/04 – Dandenong Stingrays – 185cm Midfielder
46. Matthew Payne – Western Jets – 174cm Forward
47. James Van Es 07/08/04 – GWV Rebels – 196cm Key Defender
48. Hudson O’Keefe 16/12/04 – Oakleigh Chargers 201cm Ruck
49. Blake Hansen 08/04/04 – WWT – 178cm Wing
50. Luke Teal 20/05/04 – Oakleigh Chargers – 188cm Wing

Any questions and I can try get around to answering.
The Lemmey V Scully is an interesting one. With Lemmey being the one Westies have pushed up into seniors but he has struggled.
 

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Souup

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Souup Sphynx roos_fanatic08 any next level size (205cm+) project rucks catching your eye?

Someone with the raw attributes to punt a very late or rookie pick on?
I'm most familiar with the NAB League guys so I'll list four of them.

Clay Tucker from the Eastern Ranges at 203cm is a project-type. Decent vertical, quick over short distance for his height (3.034 20m).

Hudson O'Keefe comes in at 201cm and is very quick over 20m. Has quite a poor endurance base which means there's plenty of room for growth. He also has a late birthday (December 16th) which is always intriguing.

Joshua Tweedale from Murray Bushrangers comes in at 200.8cm but is a very impressive athlete for his height. He has a 93cm vertical and when you watch him leap in the ruck it's really obvious he has a spring. If he grows another couple of cm he'll be right up there for raw prospects.

Cameron Owen is my favourite of all the raw project ruck types and has performed the best of the guys I'm listing. 203cm from Tassie Devils. The last 2 weeks in particular he's stepped up his around the ground stuff and it's caught my eye, particularly with his aggression.
 
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roos_fanatic08

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Souup Sphynx roos_fanatic08 any next level size (205cm+) project rucks catching your eye?

Someone with the raw attributes to punt a very late or rookie pick on?

From my knowledge I don't think there will be any 205+cm ruckman or players that will feature in the state champs. Even at NAB league level there are plenty of 195-198cm players running around in the ruck (Oliver Northam & Felix Fogaty) and not many over the 205cm mark. Flynn Riley (205cm) is the only one I can think of off the top of my head, but at this stage he doesn't look draftable.

Most of the more skilful rucks in this years crop all look to be around 200-204cm. No genuine height monsters there at this stage. Some of these kids might end up being a little bit taller though if they get a final growth spurt.

Jackson Broadbent - 202cm
Harry Barnett - 202cm
Max Ramsden - 202cm
Josh Tweedale - 201cm
Hudson O'Keefe - 200cm
Nick Madden (GWS Academy) - 204cm
Logan Elphinstone - 203cm
 

King Corey

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I'm most familiar with the NAB League guys so I'll list four of them.

Clay Tucker from the Eastern Ranges at 203cm is a project-type. Decent vertical, quick over short distance for his height (3.034 20m).

Hudson O'Keefe comes in at 201cm and is very quick over 20m. Has quite a poor endurance base which means there's plenty of room for growth. He also has a late birthday (December 16th) which is always intriguing.

Joshua Tweedale from Murray Bushrangers comes in at 200.8cm but is a very impressive athlete for his height. He has a 93cm vertical and when you watch him leap at the ruck you can see it. If he grows another couple of cm he'll be intriguing.

Cameron Owen is my favourite of all the raw project ruck types and has performed the best of the guys I'm listing. 203cm from Tassie Devils. The last 2 weeks in particular he's stepped up his around the ground stuff and it's caught my eye, particularly with his aggression.

Thanks. It's interesting you listed guys more around the 200cm even mark.

Do you have a hunch for which way the game will tilt over the next 5-10 years?

Will the next incremental height group (205-210cm) a la Reeves etc prevail - or will more nimble ~200cm-ish types take the fore?
 

Souup

Norm Smith Medallist
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Thanks. It's interesting you listed guys more around the 200cm even mark.

Do you have a hunch for which way the game will tilt over the next 5-10 years?

Will the next incremental height group (205-210cm) a la Reeves etc prevail - or will more nimble ~200cm-ish types take the fore?

It's just that guys at the beginning of their draft year (the numbers I'm using are measurements taken in February) aren't usually taller than that - a 205cm 17 year old is basically a unicorn.

By the end of the year, there's a chance that any of the guys I listed could have grown 3-5cm and hit that 205cm+ mark.
 

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