Draft 2022 AFLW Draft Analysis - Slice of Pie

[Pie 4 Life]

With Jasmine Fleming a possibility for next year's draft, let's look at her lineage.

Outside of footy, dad is Damien Fleming. (Cricket superstar.) (AKA, the Bowlologist.)

In footy, this is where her links get a bit stir crazy.

Her maternal uncle is Gary O'Donnell. (Essendon.)
Gary's dad is Graeme O'Donnell. (Geelong and North Melbourne.)
Graeme's paternal grandfather was Pat O'Donnell. (Geelong.)

Jasmine's 2x great-uncles are:

Bert Rankin.
Cliff Rankin.
Douglas Rankin.

Bert, Cliff's and Doug were the sons of Edwin "Ted" Rankin.

This makes Ted the 2x great-grandfather of Jasmine Fleming.

Ted's brother, Tom Rankin, was Jasmine's 3x great-uncle.

Finally, current Geelong Cats' No. 10, Georgia Rankin, is the 3rd cousin of Jasmine Fleming. (Ted Rankin was their mutual ancestor.)

All the players, Gary O'Donnell aside, have played for Geelong.​

So for those playing at home for tldr; she has a lot of football blood in her family

 

[Pie 4 Life]

I'll also be interested in what the AFLW Academy ends up looking like. If we have a breakdown of the same as this year, my 22 for 2022 for the non-Victorians fills out about right (three WA, two SA, one Tas), with two QLDers (down from four, I can't see them having four again, but Ella Smith could be a third added) and one NSW-ACT (can't see them adding a second one). They like having one from each state/territory so reckon J'Noemi Anderson (though not in the top echelon of players) would be the NT option IMO.

There were seven Vic players last year, taking up an extra two spots (for the fourth QLDer and second NSW-ACT talent), the nine players I would have: Ham, Clarke, Scott, Hurley, Shepherd, Skepper, Baskaran, Eardley and Fleming. I have a feeling Fleming might get in (despite just two games) because of upside, and trying to really convince her footy is the way to go. Hipwell the other obvious one to get in, but I'm in two minds about her (ie great player, first round prospect, but in the Top 10 Vics? Borderline for mine).

 

[RedmanWasHere]

So for those playing at home for tldr; she has a lot of football blood in her family

Sport is life for Jasmine and life is sport for her.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Sport is life for Jasmine and life is sport for her.

I reckon she could be Top 5 in the Vic pool by season's end tbh. Only played the few games, but her highlights in those games are ridiculous. I've got her at fourth atm which is probably really high considering the amount of work others have put in, but Ham, Clarke and Scott the ones ahead of her, obviously Hurley and Baskaran are right there and arguably deserve to be in front, but I know Oakleigh rate her highly, and it is easy to see why.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

I reckon she could be Top 5 in the Vic pool by season's end tbh. Only played the few games, but her highlights in those games are ridiculous. I've got her at fourth atm which is probably really high considering the amount of work others have put in, but Ham, Clarke and Scott the ones ahead of her, obviously Hurley and Baskaran are right there and arguably deserve to be in front, but I know Oakleigh rate her highly, and it is easy to see why.

With her pedigree I want Fleming at Essendon.

 

[Vacuous Space]

I'll also be interested in what the AFLW Academy ends up looking like. If we have a breakdown of the same as this year, my 22 for 2022 for the non-Victorians fills out about right (three WA, two SA, one Tas), with two QLDers (down from four, I can't see them having four again, but Ella Smith could be a third added) and one NSW-ACT (can't see them adding a second one). They like having one from each state/territory so reckon J'Noemi Anderson (though not in the top echelon of players) would be the NT option IMO.

There were seven Vic players last year, taking up an extra two spots (for the fourth QLDer and second NSW-ACT talent), the nine players I would have: Ham, Clarke, Scott, Hurley, Shepherd, Skepper, Baskaran, Eardley and Fleming. I have a feeling Fleming might get in (despite just two games) because of upside, and trying to really convince her footy is the way to go. Hipwell the other obvious one to get in, but I'm in two minds about her (ie great player, first round prospect, but in the Top 10 Vics? Borderline for mine).

Do you think there might be a push for a bigger academy, given that it's a stronger (super?) draft and they need to fill expansion teams? I think it's conceivable that the 2022 first round may be 25-30 picks long.

Aside from the players you've mentioned, I can think of Busch, Di Donato, Duursma, Hay and Williamson (I don't think I got to see any of Williamson this year, but you guys seemed to rate her highly) off the top of my head and there's probably other ones I'm forgetting that you could make arguments for.

 

[PMBangers]

Do you think there might be a push for a bigger academy, given that it's a stronger (super?) draft and they need to fill expansion teams? I think it's conceivable that the 2022 first round may be 25-30 picks long.

Aside from the players you've mentioned, I can think of Busch, Di Donato, Duursma, Hay and Williamson (I don't think I got to see any of Williamson this year, but you guys seemed to rate her highly) off the top of my head and there's probably other ones I'm forgetting that you could make arguments for.

Speaking to Tarkyn Lockyer around NAB League Girls finals time and he was pretty set that numbers wouldn't increase, but there might be less interstate representation (i.e. 2 from QLD, SA and WA) to accommodate the stronger Victorian pool

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Do you think there might be a push for a bigger academy, given that it's a stronger (super?) draft and they need to fill expansion teams? I think it's conceivable that the 2022 first round may be 25-30 picks long.

Aside from the players you've mentioned, I can think of Busch, Di Donato, Duursma, Hay and Williamson (I don't think I got to see any of Williamson this year, but you guys seemed to rate her highly) off the top of my head and there's probably other ones I'm forgetting that you could make arguments for.

Yeah most of them are in my 22. Plus Duursma and Hay in the next group.

Williamson is my favourite player from the Vic pool, I’d love to see her in the Academy as I think it would take her game to another level.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Sometimes people ask how much clubs read our stuff, and while we know they do from the communication we have, this was a nice touch because the Blues didn’t have to include reading the draft guide in their draft video but they did

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Tiny little bump.

The 2022 AFLW Draft is gonna be a huge night.

Everyone is in.

 

[Biggie]

Tiny little bump.

The 2022 AFLW Draft is gonna be a huge night.

Everyone is in.

A massive night!!

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Tiny little bump.

The 2022 AFLW Draft is gonna be a huge night.

Everyone is in.

Can't wait. But also, the lead-up to the draft (pre-signings, free agency, trade the whole shebang) will be absolutely crazy. Huge year for women's footy next year.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Can't wait. But also, the lead-up to the draft (pre-signings, free agency, trade the whole shebang) will be absolutely crazy. Huge year for women's footy next year.

Huge year for yourself and ADC too.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Huge year for yourself and ADC too.

Yeah as someone who has watched the girls play for quite a few years now (seeing Chloe Molloy/Monique Conti in juniors), the rate at development has been absolutely outstanding. It went from basically a couple of players in the teams to being best-on every single week, to say 4-5 consistently in the draft frame, up to 7-8 in the better teams now. It's becoming harder to predict who will get drafted, whereas in the early days you knew the obvious ones, where now we can talk about genuine unlucky talents. Will be even more challenging with four teams coming in!

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Yeah as someone who has watched the girls play for quite a few years now (seeing Chloe Molloy/Monique Conti in juniors), the rate at development has been absolutely outstanding. It went from basically a couple of players in the teams to being best-on every single week, to say 4-5 consistently in the draft frame, up to 7-8 in the better teams now. It's becoming harder to predict who will get drafted, whereas in the early days you knew the obvious ones, where now we can talk about genuine unlucky talents. Will be even more challenging with four teams coming in!

It all shapes up to be a ripper year and one worth keeping tabs on.

 

[Munga]

I'm guessing there won't be much of a draft benefit for clubs finishing low next season?
The four new clubs might get all the early picks, pre-draft picks, picks to trade away for current gems etc....

I just hope the AFLW don't over do the charity like when the Suns and Giants entered the AFL.

 

[briztoon]

I'm guessing there won't be much of a draft benefit for clubs finishing low next season?
The four new clubs might get all the early picks, pre-draft picks, picks to trade away for current gems etc....

I just hope the AFLW don't over do the charity like when the Suns and Giants entered the AFL.

There’s only two new Vic clubs. How many pre-draft picks do you believe they’ll receive?

 

[Pie 4 Life]

I'm guessing there won't be much of a draft benefit for clubs finishing low next season?
The four new clubs might get all the early picks, pre-draft picks, picks to trade away for current gems etc....

I just hope the AFLW don't over do the charity like when the Suns and Giants entered the AFL.

I reckon looking at the most recent expansion is the best idea. Port should do the best as that talent pool is easily strong enough to hold two teams. The Vics teams will be able to attract some good talent but probably still on the lower end. Swans are the ones I’m worried about. They’ll need to find a way to attract interstate players to the club (ditto with GIANTS) as NSW-ACT is the weakest state side that holds a team. They will probably get draft picks dependent on what they take from other teams but the biggest losers will be Adelaide and GIANTS in two team states. Though as the Dockers and Lions have shown, good list management keeps you strong.

 

[Munga]

There’s only two new Vic clubs. How many pre-draft picks do you believe they’ll receive?

No idea. They absolutely need some early picks to build a side. But as I said, I just hope it isn't over done like when GC and GWS entered, that was just over the top, pinching the top talent from five drafts!

Give them the top 8 draft picks in serpentine method (as they are starting from the same base) for the FIRST YEAR ONLY, and draft some kids. Then top them up with extra second and thrid round picks. They can trade away whatever they like for developed talent. NO OTHER compo after the first season, the AFLW clubs will rise and fall naturally, and player movement seems more relaxed and fluid than the mens comp.

This was just ridiculous...

Gold Coast:
2009, 25 pre-draft picks.
2010, 13 pre-draft picks, first 3 national draft picks, 8 of the top 13.
2011, Pick 1 (mini-draft)
2012, Pick 1 (mini-draft)

GWS:
2010, 20 pre-draft picks.
2011, 9 pre-draft picks, first 5 national draft picks, 11 of the top 14.
2012, first 3 national draft picks.
2013, first 2 national draft picks.

 

[Teen Wolf]

The draft concessions (not including pre-listings*) are entirely dependent on what players the new clubs manage to recruit as free agent expansion signings.

If, for example, Essendon are able to pick up a dozen players who are already getting a game at AFLW level (including a couple top ~40 players), then they won't get any extra help. But the greater they fall short of that target, the more draft picks they'll get, and the less competitive they'll be.

*The 2020 teams were able to sign 3 juniors from their respective development regions, which I predict will be the case again.

 

[PMBangers]

*The 2020 teams were able to sign 3 juniors from their respective development regions, which I predict will be the case again.

I forgot about that, so the better Calder girls (McDonald, Sutton and Read currently) could be off the table come draft time due to Essendon, then Hawks probably take Busch, maybe Walsh and Potter as well (decent young backline fwiw). I wonder if given the strength of their VFLW programs will mean the league isn't as generous with the prelisting region

 

[Teen Wolf]

I forgot about that, so the better Calder girls (McDonald, Sutton and Read currently) could be off the table come draft time due to Essendon, then Hawks probably take Busch, maybe Walsh and Potter as well (decent young backline fwiw). I wonder if given the strength of their VFLW programs will mean the league isn't as generous with the prelisting region

But we know Geelong have a strong VFLW program too, from which they picked up 9 players in their initial list build (not including the Hickeys, Cranstons etc). Probably fair to say it proved that more isn't necessarily merrier. I think the ideal breakdown is:

12 established AFLW players via free agency
3 fringe AFLW players via trade
3 Irish
6 u18s
6 elevated from VFLW list

 

[Pie 4 Life]

I forgot about that, so the better Calder girls (McDonald, Sutton and Read currently) could be off the table come draft time due to Essendon, then Hawks probably take Busch, maybe Walsh and Potter as well (decent young backline fwiw). I wonder if given the strength of their VFLW programs will mean the league isn't as generous with the prelisting region

Interesting that Bendigo players headed to Essendon too this year, Di Donato would be an automatic get if so, as is McDonald. I'd actually go Tegan Williams over Sutton (though would come down to needs). Will be interesting to see if it still works out with the Pios because in prior years they have been Richmond but then Richmond became Port Melbourne.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

But we know Geelong have a strong VFLW program too, from which they picked up 9 players in their initial list build (not including the Hickeys, Cranstons etc). Probably fair to say it proved that more isn't necessarily merrier. I think the ideal breakdown is:

12 established AFLW players via free agency
3 fringe AFLW players via trade
3 Irish
6 u18s
6 elevated from VFLW list

I can see with Essendon their midfield will be elite from day dot, but I wonder if focusing so much on that, what they will do around the ground. Might be a bit raw in those areas. Reckon Hawks will be more balanced with Goddard as coach, could be ultra-competitive early days even if they lose more than they win.

 

[PMBangers]

Interesting that Bendigo players headed to Essendon too this year, Di Donato would be an automatic get if so, as is McDonald. I'd actually go Tegan Williams over Sutton (though would come down to needs). Will be interesting to see if it still works out with the Pios because in prior years they have been Richmond but then Richmond became Port Melbourne.

Forgot to involve those poor Pios, Di Donato and McDonald are easy, I'd also take Williams over Sutton, but I've also really liked what I've seen of Tahlia Read this year, probably not as valuable as the Williams KPD though