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List Mgmt. 2022 Draft Thread - Part I

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Sticking this at the top of each page. If it gets annoying, let me know and I can just put it in the original post of the thread. Credit to Lore




 
sunny3193 said:
Do you have a favourite this year ARR?
Click to expand...
I’ve only taken an interest in it the last week or so and have only seen a few minutes footage of the whole crop, but I do like the sound of Mackenzie.

Not super-high numbers, but seems to have a really well balanced game, and I love the fact he’s a good kick and has some speed.

Also a plus that he’s been in our system for years, presumably with Windy, Mitch and co.

Clark sounds like a bulletproof type who every club would love to add, so he’d be a very good get.

Humphrey-B-Bear sounds like an explosive Petracca/De Goey type, so happy days if he slides.

Not sold on Ginbey from what I’ve heard about his relatively low production. Real boom-or-bust, potential “athlete rather than footballer” type, by the sounds of it.

Pou seems to have an extremely high ceiling, so I’d be very happy if we landed him. Hopefully Ross, Banga, Lenny and co would be able to keep his head from exploding. SA clubs would probably come hard for him for years though, so that wouldn’t be ideal.

While if we land Tsatas I’ll be excited, but I won’t hold my breath that he’ll make it in the guts going forward. If he’s been spending a lot of time in there already, yet still posting very low contested numbers, that’s a red flag. Be hoping he’ll end up what Polec would have been minus the injuries, or like a Gaff. If you get that from pick 10 you’re doing fine. Anything more from him I would see as a great bonus.
 
aussierulesrules said:
No idea, but if they were considered good enough to go 2, 3 (?) and 5 in their respective drafts, then they obviously performed at very high levels, in spite of their non-contested styles of play.

I’m not saying I don’t want Tsatas, or that I think he’ll be a bust, I don’t think I’ve seen more than a couple of seconds worth of footage of him play, but the simple fact is that those with very low contested possession ratios are vastly more likely to bust than those who win contested ball, and the extremely low tackle numbers are also somewhat concerning. As is hearing that he only runs one way (may or may not be true).

If we get him I’ll be excited for what he could be, and really excited to see him play, but I’ll also have my heart in my mouth that we could be looking at another Fiora/Toumpas/LOB type, who struggles to replicate his form in the big league.

I’ve been following the drafts since 1996 and I don’t remember anyone off the top of my head who’s gone from winning very low amounts of contested ball in the juniors to winning good amounts at AFL level.

It’s like drafting “HBFers” and hoping to turn them into “mids”, or drafting Gary Rohan’s and hoping you can teach them how to find the footy more than 10 times a game.

What you get is usually what you get.
Click to expand...
Tsatas is very different. I find those stats you used earlier a pretty unfair reflection.

Happy for you to do the research - but I’m not sure any of the players you listed won their u18 BnF off 6 games averaging 34 touches a game.

He has elite speed in comparison to Toumpas

Much more inside compared to Fiora

And more ball that he Carries from stoppages forward then Polec

The bolded is a very big indication of the talent he is. Soft uncontested outside footballers don’t dominate their sides BnF
 

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The Boar said:
We're getting Tsatas or Mackenzie.

If anyone in the League can teach Tsatas to run defensively, it's RTB- he needs to make it to StK for his own benefit!
Click to expand...
I wouldn’t lock it in. Plenty of water to go under the bridge. Hawks could easily take cmac and Geelong could easily take tsatas Aswell as Essendon
 
aussierulesrules said:
I’ve only taken an interest in it the last week or so and have only seen a few minutes footage of the whole crop, but I do like the sound of Mackenzie.

Not super-high numbers, but seems to have a really well balanced game, and I love the fact he’s a good kick and has some speed.

Also a plus that he’s been in our system for years, presumably with Windy, Mitch and co.

Clark sounds like a bulletproof type who every club would love to add, so he’d be a very good get.

Humphrey-B-Bear sounds like an explosive Petracca/De Goey type, so happy days if he slides.

Not sold on Ginbey from what I’ve heard about his relatively low production. Real boom-or-bust, potential “athlete rather than footballer” type, by the sounds of it.

Pou seems to have an extremely high ceiling, so I’d be very happy if we landed him. Hopefully Ross, Banga, Lenny and co would be able to keep his head from exploding. SA clubs would probably come hard for him for years though, so that wouldn’t be ideal.

While if we land Tsatas I’ll be excited, but I won’t hold my breath that he’ll make it in the guts going forward. If he’s been spending a lot of time in there already, yet still posting very low contested numbers, that’s a red flag. Be hoping he’ll end up what Polec would have been minus the injuries, or like a Gaff. If you get that from pick 10 you’re doing fine. Anything more from him I would see as a great bonus.
Click to expand...

I don’t see anything at all in Tsatas that makes me think of Polec or Gaff.

He’s an explosive power athlete… not a run all day on a flank outsider. The kid is literally a jet.

I want Cmac too but if Tsatas falls to us then you don’t blink twice.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Winmar2Lockett said:
I don’t see anything at all in Tsatas that makes me think of Polec or Gaff.

He’s an explosive power athlete… not a run all day on a flank outsider. The kid is literally a jet.

I want Cmac too but if Tsatas falls to us then you don’t blink twice.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I wasn’t comparing his playing style to Gaff, just the position/role he’d be likely to play, if he’s not winning contested footy, or tackling. And Polec was actually very good prior to his serious foot injuries. They’ve derailed his career.

Tsatas obviously has some serious weapons going for him, no-one’s denying that, but there look to also be some serious deficiencies to his game as well.

If he makes it all the way through to pick 10 it will presumably be because of those. He’ll almost certainly be exciting to watch though, at a bare minimum.
 
Bring back Darragh Joyce rookie pick!!
 
stavro#4 said:
Tsatas is very different. I find those stats you used earlier a pretty unfair reflection.

Happy for you to do the research - but I’m not sure any of the players you listed won their u18 BnF off 6 games averaging 34 touches a game.

He has elite speed in comparison to Toumpas

Much more inside compared to Fiora

And more ball that he Carries from stoppages forward then Polec

The bolded is a very big indication of the talent he is. Soft uncontested outside footballers don’t dominate their sides BnF
Click to expand...
It doesn’t matter how they got there, or which attributes they do or don’t have that Tsatas does, the fact that Toumpas went pick 2, Fiora pick 3 and Polec pick 5 suggests that they were every bit as well performed in the juniors as Tsatas has been, if not more so.

This is no “superdraft”.

So talking up Tsatas like he’s on a different level of talent than guys who were drafted higher than he looks like being drafted just doesn’t add up.

All the sort of accolades that Tsatas is being given now, those guys were likewise being given at the time they were drafted. That’s why they went top 2/3/5.

So just like how it was no guarantee that they would make it big as a result of those, there are likewise no guarantees that Tsatas will because of his.

And again, it is considered an undeniable fact that those who have very low contested ball ratios- like Tsatas- are much less likely to go on to have successful AFL careers than those who do.

That’s all I’m saying. If you’re playing the odds, history suggests the odds of him having a notable AFL career are not high.

Does this mean he won’t? No!! He could be in the small percentage who don’t win their own ball in the juniors who do.

Only time will tell.
 
I went looking for where I read that Tsatas has the lowest contested possession ratio of any top 10 pick in the last 10 years, and came across this post, by someone on the Norf board, who seems to really know what they’re talking about (given the detail in his response, and the fact peeps on there are asking his views on guys).

It was in response to a claim that Tsatas has a well balanced game of being able to win the ball both on the inside and outside:

“This is not true at all - he's actually very weak on the inside; both in terms of his ability to win contested ball, and also in his ability to dispose of it under pressure. He can't break out of/through tackles and as a result, he often dump kicks out of congestion. One of his worst traits in addition to this is his handballs under pressure often go to space or at his teammates ankles.

I would put a lot of money on him not ending up a genuine AFL
quality midfielder, due to how poor his stoppage craft and defensive efforts are.

To further add to this, he averaged 34.9% contested possession rate at NAB League level this year and 27.6% in his Under 18 champs game. If you add his U16 Champs game last year and 1 NAB League game, he had 28% and 27.3% contested possession rate respectively in those 2 appearances

Compare this to the following guys this year at NAB League level:

Ashcroft: 44%
Sheezel: 52%
Wardlaw 45.5%
Humphrey: 49.5%
Harley Reid: 49.2%

Some from previous years at NAB League level who have translated well:
Oliver: 59.5%
Noah Anderson: 44%
Brayshaw: 46%
LDU: 48.3%”

Someone else then asked him this:

“Would you not say that this is easily explained by Tsatas playing comparatively more minutes on the outside than the names you listed? Many of which are pure inside mids”

To which he replied:

“That's the thing; he didn't.

He played as a full time midfielder in basically every game he played. Round 1 is the only game you could argue he played on the wing quite a bit early days, and even then, 32.1% of his possessions were contested which is pretty much his average for the season.”

Sounds like he’s a LONG way from being ready to play consistently to any sort of decent level in the middle at AFL level, if he ever does. May even be best suited to a running/rebounding role off HB.

Will be fascinating to see how his career unfolds, as he can obviously find the ball, and really run.
 
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aussierulesrules said:
It doesn’t matter how they got there, or which attributes they do or don’t have that Tsatas does, the fact that Toumpas went pick 2, Fiora pick 3 and Polec pick 5 suggests that they were every bit as well performed in the juniors as Tsatas has been, if not more so.

This is no “superdraft”.

So talking up Tsatas like he’s on a different level of talent than guys who were drafted higher than he looks like being drafted just doesn’t add up.

All the sort of accolades that Tsatas is being given now, those guys were likewise being given at the time they were drafted. That’s why they went top 2/3/5.

So just like how it was no guarantee that they would make it big as a result of those, there are likewise no guarantees that Tsatas will because of his.

And again, it is considered an undeniable fact that those who have very low contested ball ratios- like Tsatas- are much less likely to go on to have successful AFL careers than those who do.

That’s all I’m saying. If you’re playing the odds, history suggests the odds of him having a notable AFL career are not high.

Does this mean he won’t? No!! He could be in the small percentage who don’t win their own ball in the juniors who do.

Only time will tell.
Click to expand...
It's a valid opinion.
 
dudeintheswamp said:
Yeah the top 4 seem to be pretty much locked in. The Bombers pick is the one that will directly shape the rest of the draft. Almost the whole time it's been said they'd take Tsatas, if that doesn't happen then everything looks very different all of a sudden. I have this feeling that won't go away that the Hawks will take CMac. I do believe the Cats will take Clark. Surely the Eagles take Ginbey if he's still there. Humphrey makes sense for the Suns. Definitely looking like we'll get whoever Essendon don't pick out of Tsatas and the Pou. I guess the Hawks are the other one that's a bit harder to predict.

What's everyone's general feeling/preference here, CMac, Tsatas or the Pou?
Click to expand...
Phillipou, McKenzie, Tsatas in that order
 
pebblesofsand said:
So after 122 pages, the Top 9 will be

Cadman - GWS
Ashcroft - Brisbane
Wardlaw - North
Sheezel - North


NFI
NFI
NFI
NFI
NFI


and then we'll select one of the remaining options.
Click to expand...
Yeah, intriguing how it’ll pan out..players from pick 5 to 12 are fairly predictable but in what order is the question.
One things for sure, Dodoro will love the theatre around Essendon @ pick #5!!
 

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CursingFijian said:
www.foxsports.com.au

AFL phantom draft 2022: Every first round pick and bid predicted in Fox Footy mock draft

Why Dons could favour Bont clone over star mid; Cats’ shock call: AFL first-round mock draft
www.foxsports.com.au www.foxsports.com.au

  1. Cadman
  2. Ashcroft
  3. Wardlaw
  4. Sheezel
  5. Phillipou
  6. Humphries
  7. McKenzie
  8. Tsatas
  9. Ginbey
  10. Clark
  11. Fletcher
  12. Hollands
  13. Busslinger
  14. Allan
  15. Jefferson
  16. Weddle
  17. George
  18. Michalanney
  19. Rowston
  20. Ryan
  21. Barnett
Click to expand...
Has anyone got a comparison of stats between Clark and McKenzie? I feeling Clark actually might be a chance to get to us. Trying to come around to the idea
 
saintmike65 said:
Reckon he may go back home to Ireland.
Click to expand...
There was a bit of interest from one or two clubs after he was delisted. Did quite well in the VFL during the year. Also think he quite likes Australia having lived in Melbourne for 6-7 years. There's not a whole lot in Ireland to come back to in fairness either at the moment...if he's smart I'd hope he's made some good business contacts along the way and taken advantage of the pathways the club provides.
He seems a good bloke & a character. Whatever he chooses, I wish him well
 

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