2022 Federal Election Watch - Part 2 the count

[William Wonka]

I get the feeling that a number of people think that a preference vote is less than a primary vote. We use a top two runoff system and the top two end up getting all the preferences but when the top three or second and third are very close it makes it more difficult to determine the top two. This is what computers are good for so I hope the AEC have some.

All it requires is very basic counting skils.

The only delay is postals coming in.

 

[Burro]

All it requires is very basic counting skils.

The only delay is postals coming in.

It actually gets quite complicated if you need to drill down into preferences, very recursive. Anyone that has done recursive programming will appreciate the problem.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

It actually gets quite complicated if you need to drill down into preferences, very recursive. Anyone that has done recursive programming will appreciate the problem.

Macnamara and Brisbane both are not having preferences counted yet, its the issue of postals and provisional votes that is slowing both down (until these are finished, preference allocations will not start)

 

[Burro]

manual is still manual - you have the issue of data entry error every time you enter the data


also how old are you no one fills out betting slips any more Im a fan of using electronic screens to make your ballot (similar to the punting ones), but the farce in the USA IMO has killed electronic voting in any form here for some time (unfortunately)

Everything is manual until you need to compute it. I used the betting slip analogy so more people here understood my idea. Mark sense cards are easier to use than punch cards. An app could be used but we want a paper evidential trail for voting and in reference to the USA, the problem there is because they don't have a central controlling body for elections, we have the AEC.

 

[Burro]

Macnamara and Brisbane both are not having preferences counted yet, its the issue of postals and provisional votes that is slowing both down (until these are finished, preference allocations will not start)

Yes, there should be a better way of handling Postal and Provisional votes.

 

[Father Jack]

Looks like Labor is going to finish one short of majority. Greens will win Brisbane on micro party preferences, Lyons will be won by the Liberals on outstanding votes, Labor are expected to win Macnamara through greens preferences.

Where exactly does anyone say Lyons won't stay Labor? And I mean an exact link, as everything I've seen from Bonham indicates that Labor will hold on.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Everything is manual until you need to compute it. I used the betting slip analogy so more people here understood my idea. Mark sense cards are easier to use than punch cards. An app could be used but we want a paper evidential trail for voting and in reference to the USA, the problem there is because they don't have a central controlling body for elections, we have the AEC.

the USA have state based commissions. The issues are:

1) most are not independent, so have been designing processes and procedures that help their side

2) most have had their tech options hijacked by (1)

 

[Dave]

I get that but the rest of the party will understand that hes poison too

He certainly doesn't get it if his comments in radio are anything to go by:

“You accept the result and you move on and you’re thankful for the opportunity to serve the country. I can understand after all [we went through] ... sometimes people like to change the curtains.”

Ducking lol. We burnt your bloody house down you clown.

 

[William Wonka]

It actually gets quite complicated if you need to drill down into preferences, very recursive. Anyone that has done recursive programming will appreciate the problem.

Incorrect.
Its as easy as piss.

Lets say you have five candidates.

Each candidates votes are put in a pile.
The smallest piles preferences are distributed onto the other four.

Then the next smallest piles onto the other three.

Then the next smallest piles onto the other two.

Which ever pile is biggest out of those two is the winner.

 

[kranky al]

He certainly doesn't get it if his comments in radio are anything to go by:

“You accept the result and you move on and you’re thankful for the opportunity to serve the country. I can understand after all [we went through] ... sometimes people like to change the curtains.”

Ducking lol. We burnt your bloody house down you clown.

Malignant narcissist cant accept personal failings….

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Where exactly does anyone say Lyons won't stay Labor? And I mean an exact link, as everything I've seen from Bonham indicates that Labor will hold on.

Lyons, TAS - AEC Tally Room

Lyons, TAS

tallyroom.aec.gov.au

Lyons has a TCP gap of 525 votes

There are 4599 votes to count (1011 provisional, 3580 postal).

on a TCP basis, libs need 2563 votes/preferences to overtake the ALP. To do this they need 55.7% of the vote to vote lib or preference lib over alp. Currently postals are preferencing 50.73% to Liberal, so I have no idea how the poster thinks the postals will suddenly skew so hard to the libs

 

[Pessimistic]

He certainly doesn't get it if his comments in radio are anything to go by:

“You accept the result and you move on and you’re thankful for the opportunity to serve the country. I can understand after all [we went through] ... sometimes people like to change the curtains.”

Ducking lol. We burnt your bloody house down you clown.

Like 2010?

2010 national debt would be handy now

 

[DickieKnee]

I have no idea how the poster thinks the postals will suddenly skew so hard to the libs

Maybe going off previous elections re postal votes traditionally favouring LNP. This year will be different because of COVID.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Maybe going off previous elections re postal votes traditionally favouring LNP. This year will be different because of COVID.

annoying thing is all the numbers i mentioned are in that link i posted, they even break down the preference numbers by method/booth

 

[Gough]

Brilliant read.

Morrison government’s fall marks end of Howard-era ascendancy

Every issue that defined Scott Morrison’s downfall had deep roots in John Howard’s prime ministership.

www.smh.com.au

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

can someone tell this newbie why theres still 4 seats that havent counted their votes yet?

When it gets close they obviously have to check and double-check everything.

And plus it comes down to preferences.

So if the person you voted 1 for gets knocked out - by having not attracted enough other first-preference votes - the scrutineers then have to reallocate your vote to whoever you voted 2 for.

 

[Forward Press]

In the continuing fallout from the election...

'Zero appeal to women': Senior Liberals condemn party's approach after WA voters turn away in droves

WA Liberal Party women call on the state party to put strong female candidates in winnable seats and reflect modern society or condemn themselves to long-term opposition, after a second-straight electoral trouncing.

www.abc.net.au

Of note:

• The outgoing and popular Liberal MP Ken Wyatt told stories of women approaching him and saying they did not like the Liberal 'mindset' for women
• The WA Liberal Party still preselected men anyway and in the process lost five seats - of those five lost, four were held by men and four were won by women from the other side (3 ALP, 1 independent)
• The 'clan' that wielded the most power in preselections were still there determining preselections (until Mathias Cormann went overseas)
• None of the recommendations for reform in the report analysing the disastrous 2021 State election were implemented
• There were two Liberal Party MLAs left after the State election, a man and a woman - guess who was chosen as the leader?

We are potentially looking at the extinction of the WA Liberal Party, folks.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Brilliant read.

Morrison government’s fall marks end of Howard-era ascendancy

Every issue that defined Scott Morrison’s downfall had deep roots in John Howard’s prime ministership.

www.smh.com.au

Agreed, just brilliant. I hope that in time John Howard comes to realise the full awfulness of the damage he wreaked on this great country.

 

[1990crow]

Agreed, just brilliant. I hope that in time John Howard comes to realise the full awfulness of the damage he wreaked on this great country.

He will be dead before then. Perhaps when he reaches the gates of hell he will realise.

 

[Gough]

Agreed, just brilliant. I hope that in time John Howard comes to realise the full awfulness of the damage he wreaked on this great country.

The first three years of Howard's government were about him settling scores for being considered a sniveling little pissant for the best part of fifteen years.

 

[Sir_Loin]

Agreed, just brilliant. I hope that in time John Howard comes to realise the full awfulness of the damage he wreaked on this great country.

That would require a level of self-awareness. Not a trait you associate with the LNP on the whole.

 

[Aristotle Pickett the3rd]

The reality is people (in Melbourne) are scared to go out at restaurants of a night time because they’re followed home by these gangs, home invasions, and cars are stolen and we just need to call it for what it is. Of course, it is African gang violence.“ — Peter Dutton

Source: Peter Dutton quotes (6 quotes) | Quotes of famous people

 

[Ned_Flanders]

The reality is people (in Melbourne) are scared to go out at restaurants of a night time because they’re followed home by these gangs, home invasions, and cars are stolen and we just need to call it for what it is. Of course, it is African gang violence.“ — Peter Dutton

Source: Peter Dutton quotes (6 quotes) | Quotes of famous people

Andrews has made the offer to the new opposition to take him out to dinner at a restaurant in melbourne

 

[Blue1980]

They haven't finished counting the votes in any seats yet.

The 4 (or 5) seats you refer too are seats where the ongoing count is too close to call.

In the other seats the result can be reliably predicted from the incomplete count.

#StopTheSteal

 

[Burro]

Andrews has made the offer to the new opposition to take him out to dinner at a restaurant in melbourne

Ned, what is you view on Brisbane? Most likely it will go to Greens but I am not sure.