List Mgmt. 2022 List Management and Trading Thread - Part 2

[Scorpus]

Updated list position



And 2024 as it stands

Spoiler

 

[Sanders]

Theoretically, you could argue for anywhere in 2021-2023 being our weakest year. 2024 is the year when we should expect to see significant improvement, and we should (hopefully) make the bottom of the 8 in 2025.

This just isn’t consistent with our actions or public statements

• We declared in mid 2020 that we were half way through our rebuild
• We have stated that our plan was to hit the draft for 3 years before recruiting senior players through trades/free agency to fill gaps
• We declared our rebuild over last year
• Consistent with all that, we recruited Dawson last year and Rankine this year
• 2023 is our second year after our rebuild finished.

So it’s clear we expect results now. Not some snivelling excuse about finals in 2025

It’s finals now or heads roll

 

[Big Dub]

This just isn’t consistent with our actions or public statements

• We declared in mid 2020 that we were half way through our rebuild
• We have stated that our plan was to hit the draft for 3 years before recruiting senior players through trades/free agency to fill gaps
• We declared our rebuild over last year
• Consistent with all that, we recruited Dawson last year and Rankine this year
• 2023 is our second year after our rebuild finished.

So it’s clear we expect results now. Not some snivelling excuse about finals in 2025

It’s finals now or heads roll

I think in 2020 Cornes declared that Reid had declared that we were half way through a rebuild.

Reid himself said that you hit the draft hard for 3-4 years and then get 60-80 games (ie 4 years) into those kids. In 2020 we were halfway through the 4 years hitting the draft, but only a little bit into the games part.

We are now through the hitting the draft hard part, but it will be 2025/ 2026 before we have 60 games into Soligo and Rachele. Not that we couldn't be making finals before then, we just would still be building.

But you are also correct that WE expect results now and that heads will roll if we don't get them. That's how sport works.

Hopefully that doesn't mean that Nicks/ the Crows bow to our pressure for some success now at the expense of future real success (a flag). We are our historically our own worst enemies by always expecting to be in finals (and we have no flag since 1998).

 

[crow2crow]

I think in 2020 Cornes declared that Reid had declared that we were half way through a rebuild.

Reid himself said that you hit the draft hard for 3-4 years and then get 60-80 games (ie 4 years) into those kids. In 2020 we were halfway through the 4 years hitting the draft, but only a little bit into the games part.

We are now through the hitting the draft hard part, but it will be 2025/ 2026 before we have 60 games into Soligo and Rachele. Not that we couldn't be making finals before then, we just would still be building.

But you are also correct that WE expect results now and that heads will roll if we don't get them. That's how sport works.

Hopefully that doesn't mean that Nicks/ the Crows bow to our pressure for some success now at the expense of future real success (a flag). We are our historically our own worst enemies by always expecting to be in finals (and we have no flag since 1998).

we were up in general for a long time and had our chances for flags as you know

dont confuse list management mistakes for just bloody poor finals performances on occaisions

geelong has shown you don't need to bottom out. we and north cut too deep too quick and after the gibbs top up failed we seemed to throw in the towel and start again.

im not sure there is an example of a complete cleanout, build, and premiership- if anyone has a good example please share oh and please please do not say melbourne 2021 premiers because that was a completely different list build.

 

[Scorpus]

This just isn’t consistent with our actions or public statements

• We declared in mid 2020 that we were half way through our rebuild
• We have stated that our plan was to hit the draft for 3 years before recruiting senior players through trades/free agency to fill gaps
• We declared our rebuild over last year
• Consistent with all that, we recruited Dawson last year and Rankine this year
• 2023 is our second year after our rebuild finished.

So it’s clear we expect results now. Not some snivelling excuse about finals in 2025

It’s finals now or heads roll

If the club genuinely thinks that we're going to make another set of bad decisions and prolong the rebuild

 

[Big Dub]

we were up in general for a long time and had our chances for flags as you know

dont confuse list management mistakes for just bloody poor finals performances on occaisions

geelong has shown you don't need to bottom out. we and north cut too deep too quick and after the gibbs top up failed we seemed to throw in the towel and start again.

im not sure there is an example of a complete cleanout, build, and premiership- if anyone has a good example please share oh and please please do not say melbourne 2021 premiers because that was a completely different list build.

Everything you say is correct. I'd say selection policy was also a killer for us in those years we had our chances (picking injured players, not exposing quality young players during the year, lack of depth in areas of the field).

But we did blow up the window after 2017 and we did cut too deep for the rebuild, so we are where we are.

From here, we should be looking to build a list to challenge for a flag, not focus on making finals in 2023/ 2024. (But I'd be really happy if we could play finals in 2024 without hurting the list build)

 

[Sanders]

I think in 2020 Cornes declared that Reid had declared that we were half way through a rebuild.

Reid himself said that you hit the draft hard for 3-4 years and then get 60-80 games (ie 4 years) into those kids. In 2020 we were halfway through the 4 years hitting the draft, but only a little bit into the games part.

We are now through the hitting the draft hard part, but it will be 2025/ 2026 before we have 60 games into Soligo and Rachele. Not that we couldn't be making finals before then, we just would still be building.

But you are also correct that WE expect results now and that heads will roll if we don't get them. That's how sport works.

Hopefully that doesn't mean that Nicks/ the Crows bow to our pressure for some success now at the expense of future real success (a flag). We are our historically our own worst enemies by always expecting to be in finals (and we have no flag since 1998).

The club came out in mid 2020 and said we were half way through, it came out last year and said we were done

It might be superficially convenient to say it was Kornes, except that it’s just not true

 

[Sanders]

If the club genuinely thinks that we're going to make another set of bad decisions and prolong the rebuild

There is no if.

 

[crow2crow]

Everything you say is correct. I'd say selection policy was also a killer for us in those years we had our chances (picking injured players, not exposing quality young players during the year, lack of depth in areas of the field).

But we did blow up the window after 2017 and we did cut too deep for the rebuild, so we are where we are.

From here, we should be looking to build a list to challenge for a flag, not focus on making finals in 2023/ 2024. (But I'd be really happy if we could play finals in 2024 without hurting the list build)

as weve done what weve done i now what to see how they build a list that continually renews through the selection policy you speak of to give us chances every year

we arent a minnow like st kilda or north and should be doing a lot better than we are with our resources, not least of which is the rabid supporter base on this board

 

[WaynesWorld19]

From here, we should be looking to build a list to challenge for a flag, not focus on making finals in 2023/ 2024. (But I'd be really happy if we could play finals in 2024 without hurting the list build)

No ! .....to cut the list as deep as we have ....the goal has to be multiple flags over a decade of contending

Why go thru all this pain for one flag .....

 

[rabidcrow]

This just isn’t consistent with our actions or public statements

• We declared in mid 2020 that we were half way through our rebuild
• We have stated that our plan was to hit the draft for 3 years before recruiting senior players through trades/free agency to fill gaps
• We declared our rebuild over last year
• Consistent with all that, we recruited Dawson last year and Rankine this year
• 2023 is our second year after our rebuild finished.

So it’s clear we expect results now. Not some snivelling excuse about finals in 2025

It’s finals now or heads roll

You don’t make finals as soon as you finish the draft part of the rebuild. It takes 2-3 years after you finish hitting the draft for those players to hit the 40-80 game mark and for the remaining gaps to be identified.

Next year we should be in a position to identify those gaps we need to fill and start recruiting accordingly.

Note the club hasn’t started talking finals yet - just improvement


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[Big Dub]

The club came out in mid 2020 and said we were half way through, it came out last year and said we were done

It might be superficially convenient to say it was Kornes, except that it’s just not true

So, that would be the context then, wouldn't it?

We didn't play finals last year, so "the rebuild is done" could only be relating to the process of resetting the list. Getting the experience into the kids so that we can make/ win finals/ the GF is clearly still ongoing.

Also, here's the Cornes article:

"This is rock bottom": Cornes refutes suggestion over Crows rebuild

“They are at the start line.”

www.sen.com.au

This is the Advertiser article, which I don't have access to:

But here's Thetrader15 's take at the time (which is also my recollection)

I know Kane's not very smart, but he should have listened when someone read the article to him.

Reid didn't say we were in the middle of a rebuild, the journo did. Here are JR's comments relating to it:

“At the end of the last two years we were 22-22 (win/loss record) and probably not getting better, so therefore from a list strategy point of view the best way (forward) is to get games into the kids...."

“So that is a focus where you need to get 60-80 games into your core group as quick as you can, and from a draft point of view there is certainly a bit of work we’ve put into it over the last couple of years.

“Certainly, the ‘18, ‘19 draft and what we do in ‘20, ‘21, a lot of the clubs when they look to rejuvenate or rebuild they do it over a three to four year draft period, because what you’re looking at is getting games into those players where you get some cohesion and they learn their craft by playing at the highest level.

He mentions the 18 and 19 drafts rightly we got some good high picks there, but also says you need 60-80 games into these kids which will take another 3 to 4 years to achieve.

And isn't it just common sense? We were halfway through hitting the draft for 4 years in mid 2020 when the comments were made. Twenty kids with less than 60 games of experience don't win grand finals.

Finally, regardless of what the Club says or thinks, my personal opinion is that we have hit the draft (and some trades) hard over the last 4 years and have largely reset our list. We should continue to top up with (particularly the really top end) quality players from the draft/ trade, but it will be a few years before they have the experience/ hardened bodies to win finals.

If your opinion is different, that's cool too. It's why we have a forum.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

And isn't it just common sense? We were halfway through hitting the draft for 4 years in mid 2020 when the comments were made. Twenty kids with less than 60 games of experience don't win grand finals.

Finally, regardless of what the Club says or thinks, my personal opinion is that we have hit the draft (and some trades) hard over the last 4 years and have largely reset our list. We should continue to top up with (particularly the really top end) quality players from the draft/ trade, but it will be a few years before they have the experience/ hardened bodies to win finals.

If your opinion is different, that's cool too. It's why we have a forum.

What exactly does "Hitting the Draft" mean ?

Each year, we're required to take a min of 3 draft picks .....so does hitting the Draft mean taking 5-6 players, because the reality is we really haven't changed the Draft numbers, Draft on Draft

IMO, after cutting the list hard, it mean't going to the Draft at the pointy end & refilling the list with Top 10 Draft picks over 3-4 years .......one then assumes we start to win games and our 1st Draft pick is #10 - early teens

 

[GrommoT]

What exactly does "Hitting the Draft" mean ?

Each year, we're required to take a min of 3 draft picks .....so does hitting the Draft mean taking 5-6 players, because the reality is we really haven't changed the Draft numbers, Draft on Draft

IMO, after cutting the list hard, it mean't going to the Draft at the pointy end & refilling the list with Top 10 Draft picks over 3-4 years .......one then assumes we start to win games and our 1st Draft pick is #10 - early teens

I think it means a combination of drafting many players and acquiring as best draft picks as you can to do that.

While you have to make 3 draft selections, rookie upgrades counting as selections mean you can largely avoid drafting new players and a club with a contending list could if (they're able to) trade for a pointy end draft pick and only draft one significant player. These would be the opposite of hitting the draft.

 

[Big Dub]

What exactly does "Hitting the Draft" mean ?

Each year, we're required to take a min of 3 draft picks .....so does hitting the Draft mean taking 5-6 players, because the reality is we really haven't changed the Draft numbers, Draft on Draft

IMO, after cutting the list hard, it mean't going to the Draft at the pointy end & refilling the list with Top 10 Draft picks over 3-4 years .......one then assumes we start to win games and our 1st Draft pick is #10 - early teens

"Hitting the draft" is (intentionally) turning over the list by bringing in a larger volume of players and trading out/ retiring older players. Getting access to top 10 is great, but top 30 picks all tend to be pretty handy. Using the draft also resets the age of the list (ie a plan to peak in future not current years).

From 2015 to 2017 we brought in less than 6 players per year by draft, whereas we averaged just under 9 from 2018 to 2020. There was also a big difference between the (at least on paper) quality of drafted players:

Year	Draft Ins	Top 10 picks	Top 30 picks
2015	6	0	2
2016	6	0	1
2017	5	0	1
2018	7	1	3
2019	8	1	3
2020	11	1	4
2021	5	1	1
2022	3	0	0

 

[WaynesWorld19]

"Hitting the draft" is (intentionally) turning over the list by bringing in a larger volume of players and trading out/ retiring older players. Getting access to top 10 is great, but top 30 picks all tend to be pretty handy. Using the draft also resets the age of the list (ie a plan to peak in future not current years).

From 2015 to 2017 we brought in less than 6 players per year by draft, whereas we averaged just under 9 from 2018 to 2020. There was also a big difference between the (at least on paper) quality of drafted players:

Year	Draft Ins	Top 10 picks	Top 30 picks
2015	6	0	2
2016	6	0	1
2017	5	0	1
2018	7	1	3
2019	8	1	3
2020	11	1	4
2021	5	1	1
2022	3	0	0

Some solid investigative work there

But just peeling back 2020 .....where did you get 11 from ? .....not from the National Draft, which I was referring to in my post



Conversely, lets look at the 2016 Draft, when we were in the flag window .....the only real difference was where the picks were sitting

 

[Big Dub]

Some solid investigative work there

But just peeling back 2020 .....where did you get 11 from ? .....not from the National Draft, which I was referring to in my post

View attachment 1549547

Conversely, lets look at the 2016 Draft, when we were in the flag window .....the only real difference was where the picks were sitting

View attachment 1549550

I included delisted free agents (Hinge), cat b rookies (Newchurch, Borlase), pre-season (Murray) and mid-season (Parnell).

Pretty much anything that wasn't a trade.

Didn't include Gibbs.

And yes, the quality is very important

 

[1990crow]

These are the players I want to see significant improvement from next year, with respect to either breaking into the team, improving on 2022 or progressing sufficiently to say they've got a future.

McAsey - high quality key defender prospect is a big hole in our best 22
Thilthorpe - has bided his time so far, expect to see more next year.
Pedlar - big year for Luke. Could become a star prospect.. or put into the bin pile.
Cook - 2022 was a year to forget. Can he turn it around?
Schoenberg - make or break type of year coming. Will lose trust of coaches if he doesn't put the work in.
Milera - needs to put a season together than isn't merely potential. If he doesn't well his future could be decided.
Sholl - I want to see the Sholl we first saw, but with a bigger body. Hopefully he has a big offseason.
Doedee - hopefully the surgery brings him back to the player he should be.
Butts - team is desperate for him to become a dominant KPD
O'Brien - now or never big guy. Club will look to replace you unless there's a reversion to 2020 form.

 

[Sanders]

You don’t make finals as soon as you finish the draft part of the rebuild. It takes 2-3 years after you finish hitting the draft for those players to hit the 40-80 game mark and for the remaining gaps to be identified.

Next year we should be in a position to identify those gaps we need to fill and start recruiting accordingly.

Note the club hasn’t started talking finals yet - just improvement


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Sorry what?!?!?

A 3 year rebuild, plus another 2-3 years before you can be in the top 50% of teams is not real

If it were coaches would 6 year deals from the get go

 

[Sanders]

So, that would be the context then, wouldn't it?

We didn't play finals last year, so "the rebuild is done" could only be relating to the process of resetting the list. Getting the experience into the kids so that we can make/ win finals/ the GF is clearly still ongoing.

Also, here's the Cornes article:

"This is rock bottom": Cornes refutes suggestion over Crows rebuild

“They are at the start line.”

www.sen.com.au

This is the Advertiser article, which I don't have access to:

But here's Thetrader15 's take at the time (which is also my recollection)


And isn't it just common sense? We were halfway through hitting the draft for 4 years in mid 2020 when the comments were made. Twenty kids with less than 60 games of experience don't win grand

Finally, regardless of what the Club says or thinks, my personal opinion is that we have hit the draft (and some trades) hard over the last 4 years and have largely reset our list. We should continue to top up with (particularly the really top end) quality players from the draft/ trade, but it will be a few years before they have the experience/ hardened bodies to win finals.

If your opinion is different, that's cool too. It's why we have a forum.

I don’t begin to understand the thought process here.

The timelines involved are insane, and again don’t reflect reality.

4 years at the draft another 3 or 4 years after. Add them up.

That’s not development, it’s capitulation

 

[Big Dub]

I don’t begin to understand the thought process here.

The timelines involved are insane, and again don’t reflect reality.

4 years at the draft another 3 or 4 years after. Add them up.

That’s not development, it’s capitulation

Come on mate, this is the reality. I'm not so much upset we aren't contending until 2026 than I am that we weren't contending in 2018 and 2019.

If we had been smarter after the 2017 gf, we wouldn't have even needed a rebuild. But we weren't. Instead, we broke the players and needed a rebuild. We then cut deep and made it a full rebuild (maybe we had already lost the players, maybe it was an additional mistake).

But once we were there, it was going to be a 6 to 8 year journey. Clubs like Melbourne and Carlton, who made similar mistakes, have had even worse timeliness. There is no club that has turned over a list like we have (from a grand final no less) that has gone from bottom to top in 5 years.

Be upset with the mistakes that got us here, but to say it's not where we are is not accepting reality.

 

[Sanders]

Come on mate, this is the reality. I'm not so much upset we aren't contending until 2026 than I am that we weren't contending in 2018 and 2019.

If we had been smarter after the 2017 gf, we wouldn't have even needed a rebuild. But we weren't. Instead, we broke the players and needed a rebuild. We then cut deep and made it a full rebuild (maybe we had already lost the players, maybe it was an additional mistake).

But once we were there, it was going to be a 6 to 8 year journey. Clubs like Melbourne and Carlton, who made similar mistakes, have had even worse timeliness. There is no club that has turned over a list like we have (from a grand final no less) that has gone from bottom to top in 5 years.

Be upset with the mistakes that got us here, but to say it's not where we are is not accepting reality.

No it’s not reality at all, it’s excuse making.

No one talks about 6-8 year rebuilds for a reason. And we did not even begin a full rebuild, we wanted a light list refresh so we could stay up and keep contending

By your own admission, even the club doesn’t believe this. And no supporters would (or should) accept this either

You’re not preaching patience your advocating for complete disengagement

Also you might want to check West Coast.

 

[Big Dub]

No it’s not reality at all, it’s excuse making.

No one talks about 6-8 year rebuilds for a reason. And we did not even begin a full rebuild, we wanted a light list refresh so we could stay up and keep contending

By your own admission, even the club doesn’t believe this. And no supporters would (or should) accept this either

You’re not preaching patience your advocating for complete disengagement

Also you might want to check West Coast.

It's hardly excuse making if I'm blaming the decisions of the club for getting us here.

As for West coast:

• Fell from 5th to 14th in 2000. Won the flag in 2006 (6 year rebuild)
• Fell from 3rd to 15th in 2008. Won a flag in 2018 (10 years)

We would all love to be playing for a flag 5 years into a rebuild, but we would be the first.

But that doesn't mean that I don't feel your frustration. I absolutely do.

 

[GreyCrow]

As for West coast:

• Fell from 5th to 14th in 2000. Won the flag in 2006 (6 year rebuild)

2001 - 5 wins
2002-2004 made Elimination Finals
2005-2006 made GF winning 1 losing another by 1 point

Thats not a 6 year rebuild

 

[Big Dub]

2001 - 5 wins
2002-2004 made Elimination Finals
2005-2006 made GF winning 1 losing another by 1 point

Thats not a 6 year rebuild

Wasn't a full rebuild either (but take your point).

I just don't think we are looking at a gf in 2024 given where we got ourselves to in 2020.

 

[crow2crow]

Wasn't a full rebuild either (but take your point).

I just don't think we are looking at a gf in 2024 given where we got ourselves to in 2020.

you would need a coaching messiah and that ain't happening