Resource 2023 AFL Draft Discussion...

[1990crow]

It’s possible we would rise yes, but if you were betting your house on what ladder position WCE finish in next year what’s your bet? That’s all you can go on when trading future picks. Suggesting your risk should be zero isn’t realistic.

I would bet 15th. You are under valuing the risk still with Adelaide with swap of F1s.

 

[Mostyn]

10 with future 1sts swapped is about right,

That's probably the only deal that has a good mix of risk for both clubs.

 

[LoBu]

I can almost guarantee that if we ended up with WC F1, we'd get gazumped for pick 1 and 2 by a priority pick probably to North, Richmond, Geelong or Gold Coast, whoever finishes bottom.

We'd end up with pick 3 for sure.

 

[Crow till I die]

I think you’ll find that the Crows are very keen to get as high up the draft as they can next year and I suspect you’ll play less to do it this year than you will next year. I don’t think it will be a trade where either club is looking to screw the other, I think it might just suit mutual interests.

I agree if we thought we could get up into next years top 3-5, then losing a good 1st this year and risking next years to do it would be worth trying

 

[1990crow]

I agree if we thought we could get up into next years top 3-5, then losing a good 1st this year and risking next years to do it would be worth trying

eaglevision and WC board are advocating for us also losing 14 and 20.

No deal.

 

[Crow till I die]

eaglevision and WC board are advocating for us also losing 14 and 20.

No deal.

Too much. I would do 20 + melbourne 2nd for their 23 and f2 as a stand alone deal

 

[FR0GGY]

Cook does have some special traits but that’s not the reason he isn’t being played

Cool isn’t being played because he isn’t consistent enough even in the things he does well

The club has played him Wing, HF and as a running HB to try and get him to be more consistent with his weapons, and he has struggled for consistency




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Cook got 1 game this year and played well, that’s very disheartening for a bloke to not get the chance to back it up the next week.

 

[LoBu]

10 with future 1sts swapped is about right,

This is a possible deal if our preferred players are gone at 10, but even then I'd prefer 14 and future firsts, much better to get our best player this year first then do a deal.

Pick 1 (2024) - 3000
for
pick 14 - 1161
pick 12 (2024) - 1268

the difference is pick 33

If the F1st slid to pick 2 the difference is just pick 66

If F1st slid to pick 3 the points are in favour of West Coast.

I know it's not all about points, but it seems evenly placed, we may need to sweeten with pick 20 sliding back to 23 this year (pick 38 in our favour).

 

[Big Dub]

What if Hawthorn have a crap year, Richmond self destruct and North stay rubbish?

West Coast could end up with pick 5, not pick 1. And we might be pick 8 or so, so we've given away three firsts for a tiny upgrade and a second round pick.

We're not finished rebuilding yet and we can't start treating picks like we're Gold Coast.

If all of those things happen, then West Coast still end up with a pick anywhere from pick 1 to 4. Some media pundits have us as a potential top 4 team next year (at least as likely as Weagles finishing 15th). So our pick will be anywhere from pick 9 to pick 15.

A top 5 pick is more than four times more likely to produce an all australian than any pick from 11 to 30 (based on last 5 years). We give up three of those 11 to 30 picks and get one back.

We haven't finished our rebuild yet, but we are a lot further in than them and have a lot better young (below 24) depth. One top end mid is worth more to us than two pretty good footballers. They need to build a base of pretty good footballers.

 

[1990crow]

This is a possible deal if our preferred players are gone at 10, but even then I'd prefer 14 and future firsts, much better to get our best player this year first then do a deal.

Pick 1 (2024) - 3000
for
pick 14 - 1161
pick 12 (2024) - 1268

the difference is pick 33

If the F1st slid to pick 2 the difference is just pick 66

If F1st slid to pick 3 the points are in favour of West Coast.

I know it's not all about points, but it seems evenly placed, we may need to sweeten with pick 20 sliding back to 23 this year (pick 38 in our favour).

WC also don't do the deal if its not pick 10.
The point is clear, anything more than swap of F1s is ridiculous.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Paul seedsman ring a bell ? Or did he play something else ?

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He does, great example thank you

Only played half the games in Nicks' first season. Didn't know how to use him at all

And he was comfortably our best wingman at the time

Illustrates the point perfectly

 

[Mostyn]

The other issue in this - future picks are always worth slightly less than current picks. That's true in EVERY sport where you can trade into the future.

Knowing what the pick is and what you will get - and having them a year earlier - that's worth something.

So - pick 10 is probably worth a future pick 5 to 8.

I'm not sure what else we should give on top of pick 10 to get a F1.

And if Curtin IS there, we should draft him.

 

[Mostyn]

If all of those things happen, then West Coast still end up with a pick anywhere from pick 1 to 4. Some media pundits have us as a potential top 4 team next year (at least as likely as Weagles finishing 15th). So our pick will be anywhere from pick 9 to pick 15.

A top 5 pick is more than four times more likely to produce an all australian than any pick from 11 to 30 (based on last 5 years). We give up three of those 11 to 30 picks and get one back.

We haven't finished our rebuild yet, but we are a lot further in than them and have a lot better young (below 24) depth. One top end mid is worth more to us than two pretty good footballers. They need to build a base of pretty good footballers.

Except that WCE pick 4 gets blown out with Brisbane father-sons, with possible compo picks and who knows what else.

I'm not convinced us giving up Curtin and another top ten pick to get something that might be around pick 5 or so is worth it.

 

[Afcprophet]

It's gonna be a shame when all these other clubs get some exciting players like Reid, Watson, Duursma, all the GC academy kids, Curtin, Sanders... Then its our turn and we draft some vanilla backman that will have the same career as someone we could have drafted in the third round. It'll be Ollie Murphy or Leake or someone equally uninspiring.

Wish we'd take a punt on someone with a higher ceiling and lower floor.

 

[Mostyn]

He does, great example thank you

Only played half the games in Nicks' first season. Didn't know how to use him at all

And he was comfortably our best wingman at the time

Illustrates the point perfectly

Except he must have known how to use him, as Seedsman played the best football of his career under Nicks?

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Except he must have known how to use him, as Seedsman played the best football of his career under Nicks?

exactly, played career best football under Nicks so its a funny argument

FWIW i don't think it was due to Nicks coaching either way

 

[Mostyn]

It's gonna be a shame when all these other clubs get some exciting players like Reid, Watson, Duursma, all the GC academy kids, Curtin, Sanders... Then its our turn and we draft some vanilla backman that will have the same career as someone we could have drafted in the third round. It'll be Ollie Murphy or Leake or someone equally uninspiring.

Wish we'd take a punt on someone with a higher ceiling and lower floor.

That's what you think of Leake, is it?

Which games did you see that made you think that?

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Except he must have known how to use him, as Seedsman played the best football of his career under Nicks?

I'm sure you recall the heart-to-heart they had to have after the dire 2020 season because Seedsman's career under Nicks had flatlined

We end up with inside mids and contested ball winners on our wings and at half forward because that's what we value

 

[119others]

The other issue in this - future picks are always worth slightly less than current picks. That's true in EVERY sport where you can trade into the future.

Knowing what the pick is and what you will get - and having them a year earlier - that's worth something.

So - pick 10 is probably worth a future pick 5 to 8.

I'm not sure what else we should give on top of pick 10 to get a F1.

And if Curtin IS there, we should draft him.

Doesn’t it depend on what pick 10 buys? If it’s a moderate talent in an underwhelming draft (which is my understanding of this years draft position) with next years draft higher overall quality stocked with elite mids, then surely relative value needs to be factored in.

 

[Big Dub]

Except that WCE pick 4 gets blown out with Brisbane father-sons, with possible compo picks and who knows what else.

I'm not convinced us giving up Curtin and another top ten pick to get something that might be around pick 5 or so is worth it.

Curtin won't be there. But, if he was, I would draft him and trade him to West Coast next year for a swap of firsts when we know what pick they have. Even if they don't trade, we still have a quality player.

But Curtin won't be there. It will be Wilson, Windsor or Leake and a teens pick.

I'd much rather the chance to have the next Rozee (but up to 4 picks better) than the next Chayce (but hopefully better) and Ned right now.

 

[1990crow]

Curtin won't be there. But, if he was, I would draft him and trade him to West Coast next year for a swap of firsts when we know what pick they have. Even if they don't trade, we still have a quality player.

But Curtin won't be there. It will be Wilson, Windsor or Leake and a teens pick.

I'd much rather the chance to have the next Rozee (but up to 4 picks better) than the next Chayce (but hopefully better) and Ned right now.

Leake doesn't excite me.

 

[Crows I Am]

Except that WCE pick 4 gets blown out with Brisbane father-sons, with possible compo picks and who knows what else.

I'm not convinced us giving up Curtin and another top ten pick to get something that might be around pick 5 or so is worth it.

West Coast are in all sort of trouble with their list. They are a lock for pick 1 or 2 next year. I can't see us going backwards next year either. I know nothing is guaranteed of course, but it's a risk vs reward call that I think is weighted in our favour. If we want to find that generational mid this could be the pathway to do it.

And Father son picks don't affect who we can select with our pick if we did get a hold of their F1. We would still get access to the best couple of available players in the pool.

The only compo pick I can see being given out next year is is to the Eagles if they have another year like this one, pretty unlikely it would be pick 1 though as their first year of compensation, would likely be similar to Kangaroos package this year.

Not saying i would do the pick that was floated with all of our first rounds picks this year, plus our F1 for their F1, that is overs imo. But if there was another way we could bring in their F1 we should be looking at it.

 

[BACCS]

Exactly

SA clubs would interview any SA kids they rate even if they no intention of picking them at the picks we have as it’s important for future relationships

As soon as they are drafted interstate they will be tracked , all the way until they are ultimately delisted

Listening to that Reid interview on Sensible Crow, he mentioned that we have tracked Burgess since his draft year, even though it obviously then took some time until he was picked up by Gold Coast in his early 20s. Relationships with these players is very important.

 

[hugecannon]

It seems a shame we don’t have a few more spots available for this draft, despite people saying it’s a shallow draft it seems like there’s some value and depth on key positions and rucks which are both areas where we have a serious lack of depth for the future.

Plus there does seem to be opportunities to get some value in the 20’s and 30’s where we could take some punts on a few of these types of players.

 

[Mostyn]

I'm sure you recall the heart-to-heart they had to have after the dire 2020 season because Seedsman's career under Nicks had flatlined

We end up with inside mids and contested ball winners on our wings and at half forward because that's what we value

This is a weird point you're trying to make - I don't really remember that, but I do remember Seedsman being All Australian quality and playing career best football. I was really sad when his injury hit.