King Huskii
Norm Smith Medallist
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Won't it be funny when they don't make finals
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Fixture 2023 Fixture
- Thread starter DragoDelph
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Won't it be funny when they don't make finals
Those games still have to be won nothing is a certainty especially as it’s Carlton.
- May 3, 2007
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I am probably gonna be alone in this view and some will call me crazy.
I won't be surprised if we repeat the performance what we did in the 1st 8 games in 2022.
This season, we beat the crows away, lost to the saints at home which was demoralising, yet it gave us the kick up the bum to win the next 6.
Beating the saints in round 1 will be good. Losing to bottom 2 north Melbourne would be bad.
But rounds 3-8 are all winnable even Brisbane at the Gabba
It’s appallingly obvious levels of inner sanctum corruption. But the league continually just waves it through. Grubs.
Clearly your footy IQ is zero. They did the blockbuster trade that brought in the superstar winger, Acres. Pretty sure that’ll shore up the entire group. You should educate yourself and read more of the Vic media. Carton will lose one game max.
- May 3, 2007
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With the fixture we got, nobody should Doubt our credentials if we make finals, even If we get 8th spot
This fixturing variable highlights how ****ed the AFL is. They are desperate for certain clubs to rise up the ladder. Carlton and Essendon are two. They will ALWAYS get an easier set of fixtures than their previous years finishing position deserves.
Having 6 extra games for the AFL to hand select the permutations that suit their favourites is well and truly an example of how incapable the AFL is of being truly fair to all 18 clubs.
Having 6 extra games for the AFL to hand select the permutations that suit their favourites is well and truly an example of how incapable the AFL is of being truly fair to all 18 clubs.
An easier draw isn’t always advantages in the long run. Better to work for it so when the whips are cracking you are ready, if you have a soft run, you don’t get to the end game when you aren’t prepared.
It’s more irritation as how certain favourite clubs are pushed. Subtle little things the AFL does that give them a small leg up here and there.
Travis Auld and his cronies just can’t help themselves. They are like Homer Simpson with the red button.
Gill McLachlan would be DESPERATE for Carlton to come good. They claim impartiality but the undercurrent is always there in everything they do.
Travis Auld and his cronies just can’t help themselves. They are like Homer Simpson with the red button.
Gill McLachlan would be DESPERATE for Carlton to come good. They claim impartiality but the undercurrent is always there in everything they do.
Spot on, Carlton is the perfect example of this point.
Terrible metrics, look at the one on the AFL site instead
serial_thrilla
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Squiggle Ladder Predictor doesn't like our fixtures: it has us finishing 12th with a 9-14 record!
predictor.squiggle.com.au
Squiggle AFL Ladder Predictor
Squiggle, the home of computer-aided AFL footy tipping, offers a handy ladder predictor tool.
predictor.squiggle.com.au
I wouldn't read into it much at the start of the season, 5 rounds in when teams find their feet will be a better judgeSquiggle Ladder Predictor doesn't like our fixtures: it has us finishing 12th with a 9-14 record!
Squiggle AFL Ladder Predictor
Squiggle, the home of computer-aided AFL footy tipping, offers a handy ladder predictor tool.
But yes, we have the hardest fixture in the league so expect a slide this year
Dees may walk away with a top ten for Jackson in the end!
- Oct 17, 2010
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I'm expecting us to be a stronger side next year (because of natural development of our young list, Fyfe's return and the footballers we have brought in being better and more committed than the ones who left), so unless the competition standard increases we're not sliding. As you allude to, fixture assessments are based on outdated data (the previous year's results). It only takes 3-4 sides to significantly under or over perform (usually the case) for pre-season forecasts based on fixture difficulty to fly out the window.
DocT
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Squiggle's auto-tip predictor has built in randomness. I ran it approx 10x and Freo had 10-12 wins. Worryingly consistent but I'm not worried. Nearly all the tippers forecast similarly for the Purple in 2022. They obviously underestimated the awesome power of the colour purple and still do.Squiggle Ladder Predictor doesn't like our fixtures: it has us finishing 12th with a 9-14 record!
Squiggle AFL Ladder Predictor
Squiggle, the home of computer-aided AFL footy tipping, offers a handy ladder predictor tool.
Quazar
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good points - we finished 5th when no so called "experts" predicted it. We could finish top 2 next year and I bet no one will guess that, even here. We could also slide and finish outside the 8, the game is still that unpredictable. I saw people with YT channels picking Essendon and Port to make the 8 last season, some even had Geelong sliding outside the 8 (!). In other words, nobody really knows...not even ex-players and 'experts'.
My biggest 'fear' this season was that Lobb would leave after a career-best season and we'd be lacking in the forwardline, especially with Tabs perennial injuries. It's still a concern for me, but I guess other personnel have to step up to the plate. We won't know...until we know!!
It's a tough fixture, but it's a true-grit test to see exactly how far advanced this club is now, 4th year under J-Lo weaving some kind of magic....I'm quietly optimistic (as ever!), but I also remember the highs and lows of just the 1st 2 rounds last year, a thrilling edge of seat away win at the Crows followed by a lacklustre performance and loss at home to the Saints! Then we went on a winning spree of however many (can't be frigged to check..) after everyone here (including myself) blew a gasket at how crap we still were! The emotional mechanics of footy, when you analyze highsightedly, are really quite amusing.
The game can be weird like this....we could lose to North at home and spank Brisbane at the Gabba, anomalous things happen in the nebulous space of AFL...I guess we'll just have to wait and see what destiny has in store for us, hopefully it's our turn for some jelly & icecream....boy oh boy!!!!
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Doesn't look awful but definitely gets a lot harder after an easy start.
I'd peg us at about 14 wins based off that.
I think a small dip this year is no surprise, it's basically what a lot have been saying this year. A lot of player turnover, a young group. Should still scrape finals as a minimum though, can't see us not winning at least 12-13 games there.
I'd peg us at about 14 wins based off that.
I think a small dip this year is no surprise, it's basically what a lot have been saying this year. A lot of player turnover, a young group. Should still scrape finals as a minimum though, can't see us not winning at least 12-13 games there.
I would say 16-7 would be the benchmark for a top season where everything goes to plan. That means beating all of Richmond, Bulldogs, Sydney, Brisbane, Carlton at home. And winning all the other ones where we should be clear favourites. I don't think we will get to 16-7, but am hopeful we can get close. The critical thing is to start 6-0. We've been given the opportunity to set the year up and can't afford slip ups early.
They had us bottom 4 last year when the fixtures released, not always the most accurateSquiggle Ladder Predictor doesn't like our fixtures: it has us finishing 12th with a 9-14 record!
Squiggle AFL Ladder Predictor
Squiggle, the home of computer-aided AFL footy tipping, offers a handy ladder predictor tool.
Taylor
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If Port don't start the season five games behind, if Collingwood don't come out winners in so many of those close games, if Richmond doesn't lose key players, if the Dogs don't barely slip across the line, if Carlton don't lose so much at the end of the season, if St Kilda don't do that too...
There's a lot of water to go under the bridge.
All of Sydney, Collingwood and Freo get harder draws this season to last.
Sides playing Carlton, Port, Richmond, even Adelaide twice could be in for a rougher draw.
Sides playing Hawthorn, GWS, Dogs could come out better.
But there's so much that could go wrong for every side.
There's a lot of water to go under the bridge.
All of Sydney, Collingwood and Freo get harder draws this season to last.
Sides playing Carlton, Port, Richmond, even Adelaide twice could be in for a rougher draw.
Sides playing Hawthorn, GWS, Dogs could come out better.
But there's so much that could go wrong for every side.
I don't know what it does with these auto-predictions. I did a few and they were always 11-12. The last one I checked and it had us losing by 4-5 goals to North and WC in Rd 2 and 3. Losing to the Dogs by 60 and 41 points. But beating Brisbane by 15 at the Gabba and then 64 points at home. It had us beating Geelong (who were 16-7 and 1st in this simulation) by 76 points at Optus! I think the algorithm for the simulator is a bit dodgy to say the least.
The squiggle is very good for an in-season trend or at predicting an old team slide (it picked both us in 2016 and Sydney just before their bottom 4 finishes. It's also known WC is dog**** for a while (i.e. before last season).
The reason why I wouldn't use it on us is because we have a reasonably long history of coming out strong in the early season before trailing off towards the end. So squiggle stilly sees our ordinary post bye form but doesn't take into account we're likely to be at our best early.
The reason why I wouldn't use it on us is because we have a reasonably long history of coming out strong in the early season before trailing off towards the end. So squiggle stilly sees our ordinary post bye form but doesn't take into account we're likely to be at our best early.
