Prediction 2023 Ladder Predictor

[ctwenty1]

1. Carlton

Not concerned with what happens below us

 

[thylacine60]

My tip for where we finish relative to the month of the year I get asked:

1 Carlton (April)

2

3

4

5 Carlton (May)

6

7

8

9 Carlton (June)

10

11

12

13 Carlton (July)

14

15

16

17 Carlton (August)

18

 

[camskell]

Here it is.

Lions
Pies
Cats
Freo
Blues
Dees
Swans
Tigers
Suns
Dogs
Crows
Saints
Port
Dons
Roos
Hawks
Eagles
Giants

 

[SurreyBlue]

Tough 7 to 10.
Melbourne drop out with limited KP forwards, Collingwood to be found out and Gold Coast the improvers.
Western Bulldogs to be the big player.

Western Bulldogs
Carlton
Brisbane
Geelong
Fremantle
Richmond
Gold Coast
Sydney
———————————
Melbourne
Collingwood
Port Adelaide
Greater Western Sydney
St Kilda
Adelaide

Hawthorn
North Melbourne
Essendon
West Coast

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Dogs will slide post Dunkley, ditto Pies (they had incredible luck last year) and Freo (discarded too many good players, Luke Jackson...meh).

 

[camskell]

Here it is.

Lions
Pies
Cats
Freo
Blues
Dees
Swans
Tigers
Suns
Dogs
Crows
Saints
Port
Dons
Roos
Hawks
Eagles
Giants

Finals predictions follow:

Week 1:
Q1. Lions v Freo (lions win)
E1. Blues v Tigers (blues win)
E2. Dees v Swans (dees win)
Q2. Pies v Cats (cats win)

Week 2:
S1. Freo v Blues (blues win)
S2. Pies v Dees (pies win)

Week 3:
P1. Lions v Pies (lions win)
P2. Cats v Blues (cats win)

Week 4:
Grand Final: Lions v Cats (lions win premiership)

 

[SurreyBlue]

Dogs will slide post Dunkley, ditto Pies (they had incredible luck last year) and Freo (discarded too many good players, Luke Jackson...meh).

WB biggest asset has been midfield and their achillies, the KP. They addressed the KP deficiency over the summer and have 2 up and coming youngsters who will grow and become elite over the next few years. They won't slide due to losing one midfielder player, and IMO will be our biggest challenger in the coming 2-3 years.

IMO Fremantle have a great young list and are very, very, well coached. Long term injuries to key personal, is the major factor, but most teams are similar.

 

[Arr0w]

I think Dockers come back a touch, before coming again.

Losing Mundy, Logue, Acres hurts in terms of ready made maturity, even injury cover in Tucker and Meek

Jackson cancels out Lobb

 

[Pablito]

WB biggest asset has been midfield and their achillies, the KP. They addressed the KP deficiency over the summer and have 2 up and coming youngsters who will grow and become elite over the next few years. They won't slide due to losing one midfielder player, and IMO will be our biggest challenger in the coming 2-3 years.

IMO Fremantle have a great young list and are very, very, well coached. Long term injuries to key personal, is the major factor, but most teams are similar.

They also lost Hunter and Cordy who played 24 games between them last year. Their depth took a hit. I'd be shocked if Jones is the same player he was with us 2 years later at 32 years old when the season starts.

In saying that I have us in 9th again and WB finishing 8th.

 

[Coona Blues]

WB biggest asset has been midfield and their achillies, the KP. They addressed the KP deficiency over the summer and have 2 up and coming youngsters who will grow and become elite over the next few years. They won't slide due to losing one midfielder player, and IMO will be our biggest challenger in the coming 2-3 years.

IMO Fremantle have a great young list and are very, very, well coached. Long term injuries to key personal, is the major factor, but most teams are similar.

Both of the teams you named could go either way.

WB has a prolific midfield as opposed to a dominant one. High possession is the order of the day. They have an acute reliance on Libba and Bont to do the grunt work, which will be heightened with the departure of Dunkley, who I believe was under rated by Beveridge. Smith will need to step up as a balanced mid rather than a seagull as he has been turned in to. West and McLean can step up, but are not “big bodies”. Darcy will be a star at either end in a year or two, needs probably have him developed in the back half. Ugle-Hagan will be a slow burn, but showed signs late last season. Draftee Charlie Clarke will become a key player for them in the near future.

Realistically they now have all of the pieces to be a dominant side. They will need to recruit a midfield bull in the near future to continue their development. If the pieces come together will be a big player, however they may be a season or two short of peaking.

Freo is another team putting the pieces of a dominant team together. Their defence is packed, thus the exit of a quality player in Logue was “acceptable”. They do need Pearce to stay on the park. They have some excellent developing outside mids in particular. The departure of Mundy will place greater importance on Fyfe to stay on the field to provide a presence on the inside to assist young guns Brayshaw and Serong with Brodie again filling a role.

Freo’s forward line is an Achilles heel, but the pieces are there if it comes together. Jackson adds a presence, young Amiss will be a star in the future, Taberner is inconsistent, but dominant in his day. They have some quality pressure forwards (Schultz, Frederick, Switkowski), but perhaps need a goal kicker to step up from Walters.

Both sides have the “artillery” to be a force, but maturity and “luck” will play a part.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

1. Melbourne
2. Brisbane
3. Geelong
4. Freo
5. Carlton
6. Sydney
7. Richmond
8. Gold Coast
9. Collingwood
10. Port Adelaide
11. Bulldogs
12. St kilda
13. GWS
14. Essendon
15. Adelaide
16. Hawks
17. North
18. West Coast

 

[tarczonandjane]

In keeping with my glass half empty (and hope to be pleasantly surprised) approach, I will tip Carlton to finish 10th-12th. This is a modest improvement on the 12th-14th I predicted in 2022. Injuries will continue to bite, but in happier news, Sir Charles will win the Coleman again.

Keeping with the doom and gloom, I will also predict a Richmond v Collingwood grand final, and a lead up to the game which focuses ad nauseum on KB in the 1980 GF. I guess it could be worse, the media could figure out some way of making it all about Sheedy. I’m hoping they won’t.

There will be another coaching review for us at the end of the year. After some precarious moments of deliberation, the club will decide Voss is the right man, but he needs more support.

Don’t shoot the messenger

 

[JustaBattler]

Richmond Brisbane Geelong are locks
then
Melbourne
then
a bunch of sides

Carlton will have to develop a third and 4th forward option to score if the Club is to have a break-out year as well as have access to the midfield it had for most of the year- and we are already down(at least) Walsh. I can see Carlton finishing Top4 if all goes well - but flank weakness including HFF is a big issue as is availability and continuity of mids. The other elephant in the room is the ruck of course.

Not much difference between any of Carlton/Collingwood/Fremantle/Doggies/Saints/Suns /Port in my books - on any day any of these teams can beat the locks above.

So I see 7 sides competing for the lower 4 finals spots.

Out of these I think with a fit side Carlton wins over: Collingwood Doggies and Port and 50/50 against Fremantle Suns and Saints.

Out of my top4 locks I see Carlton a 40% chance to beat any of Richmond / Brisbane Geelong or Melbourne.

However - if the weaknesses in the team are able to be exposed by sides developing as in the Adelaide game and even the Saints game - things could get really nasty really fast.

Not enough mongrel competitive depth in my books to jag wins in close games ( as seen over and over again in '22) and carrying 3-4 naturally weak players will cost.

Until the side can beat most sides by comfortable margins - every week will be a grind - based on '22 Carlton is a middling side with claims for a 10th- 7th finish. 10th would be a disaster and in my books 7th not much better.

 

[skadoosh]

Finals predictions follow:

Week 1:
Q1. Lions v Freo (lions win)
E1. Blues v Tigers (blues win)
E2. Dees v Swans (dees win)
Q2. Pies v Cats (cats win)

Week 2:
S1. Freo v Blues (blues win)
S2. Pies v Dees (pies win)

Week 3:
P1. Lions v Pies (lions win)
P2. Cats v Blues (cats win)

Week 4:
Grand Final: Lions v Cats (lions win premiership)

Just curious is all (not meant to be rude or telling you to go elsewhere), but is there any particular reason your first 2 posts were in the Carlton forum, and you've listed yourself as a Collingwood supporter?

 

[macky99]

Richmond Brisbane Geelong are locks
then
Melbourne
then
a bunch of sides

Carlton will have to develop a third and 4th forward option to score if the Club is to have a break-out year as well as have access to the midfield it had for most of the year- and we are already down(at least) Walsh. I can see Carlton finishing Top4 if all goes well - but flank weakness including HFF is a big issue as is availability and continuity of mids. The other elephant in the room is the ruck of course.

Not much difference between any of Carlton/Collingwood/Fremantle/Doggies/Saints/Suns /Port in my books - on any day any of these teams can beat the locks above.

So I see 7 sides competing for the lower 4 finals spots.

Out of these I think with a fit side Carlton wins over: Collingwood Doggies and Port and 50/50 against Fremantle Suns and Saints.

Out of my top4 locks I see Carlton a 40% chance to beat any of Richmond / Brisbane Geelong or Melbourne.

However - if the weaknesses in the team are able to be exposed by sides developing as in the Adelaide game and even the Saints game - things could get really nasty really fast.

Not enough mongrel competitive depth in my books to jag wins in close games ( as seen over and over again in '22) and carrying 3-4 naturally weak players will cost.

Until the side can beat most sides by comfortable margins - every week will be a grind - based on '22 Carlton is a middling side with claims for a 10th- 7th finish. 10th would be a disaster and in my books 7th not much better.

Not so sure how you are so positive on Richmond, if you compare our list age profile to theirs our best 6-10 players are in a much better age profile than the tigers list, our best players are 22-25, yet the Tigers have Riewoldt/Cotchin/Lynch/Martin & among others all very much in the back end of their career.

They scrapped into the 8, & yes they have picked up two players but maybe some of those 30+ players will start to fall away further in 23, we have a large group with more upside in the phrase of their career, l would be surprised if we do not finish above the Tigers.

 

[Dadda Dave]

Just curious is all (not meant to be rude or telling you to go elsewhere), but is there any particular reason your first 2 posts were in the Carlton forum, and you've listed yourself as a Collingwood supporter?

Are you thinking what I'm thinking

 

[JustaBattler]

Not so sure how you are so positive on Richmond, if you compare our list age profile to theirs our best 6-10 players are in a much better age profile than the tigers list, our best players are 22-25, yet the Tigers have Riewoldt/Cotchin/Lynch/Martin & among others all very much in the back end of their career.

They scrapped into the 8, & yes they have picked up two players but maybe some of those 30+ players will start to fall away further in 23, we have a large group with more upside in the phrase of their career, l would be surprised if we do not finish above the Tigers.

They have fixed the glaring weakness in their side by picking up two genuine AFL quality mids - which frees Martin and Bolton to play in the forward lines adding to the firepower of their two talls. They have a very strong defense and they have no weaknesses on the outside. They are my reasons- as for age - if players are fit enough to play then they are players - I am talking 2023 not 2024 0r 2025.

 

[camskell]

Just curious is all (not meant to be rude or telling you to go elsewhere), but is there any particular reason your first 2 posts were in the Carlton forum, and you've listed yourself as a Collingwood supporter?

The thing is, this is a thing for 2023 predictions so even though its a carlton forum its not particularly dedicated to the club. And it may sound weird but i dont mind carlton theyre an epic side in my opinion and i hope they make prelims

 

[passmark]

After a promising start to the season that has the fans up and about, Essendon fall away badly after July missing the finals by a game.

 

[SurreyBlue]

After a promising start to the season that has the fans up and about, Essendon fall away badly after July missing the finals by a game.

There will be no promising start to the season!!!!

 

[camskell]

Theyll do better than last year, surely

 

[macky99]

They have fixed the glaring weakness in their side by picking up two genuine AFL quality mids - which frees Martin and Bolton to play in the forward lines adding to the firepower of their two talls. They have a very strong defense and they have no weaknesses on the outside. They are my reasons- as for age - if players are fit enough to play then they are players - I am talking 2023 not 2024 0r 2025.

That is fair enough, but l don't believe you are factoring in any decline in output in the older players which is very likely over a long season.
I believe our overall list is now in better shape than Richmond and feel we are not heading in the right direction if we finish behind the Tigers, Taranto is a good player for sure but not at all convinced Hopper will make much difference, particuarly when Edwards is now gone and has been a very solid contributor for them.
Bolton has played alot down forward for a few years now, so not certain this will be much change from prior years in his use.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Richmond Brisbane Geelong are locks
then
Melbourne
then
a bunch of sides

Carlton will have to develop a third and 4th forward option to score if the Club is to have a break-out year as well as have access to the midfield it had for most of the year- and we are already down(at least) Walsh. I can see Carlton finishing Top4 if all goes well - but flank weakness including HFF is a big issue as is availability and continuity of mids. The other elephant in the room is the ruck of course.

Not much difference between any of Carlton/Collingwood/Fremantle/Doggies/Saints/Suns /Port in my books - on any day any of these teams can beat the locks above.

So I see 7 sides competing for the lower 4 finals spots.

Out of these I think with a fit side Carlton wins over: Collingwood Doggies and Port and 50/50 against Fremantle Suns and Saints.

Out of my top4 locks I see Carlton a 40% chance to beat any of Richmond / Brisbane Geelong or Melbourne.

However - if the weaknesses in the team are able to be exposed by sides developing as in the Adelaide game and even the Saints game - things could get really nasty really fast.

Not enough mongrel competitive depth in my books to jag wins in close games ( as seen over and over again in '22) and carrying 3-4 naturally weak players will cost.

Until the side can beat most sides by comfortable margins - every week will be a grind - based on '22 Carlton is a middling side with claims for a 10th- 7th finish. 10th would be a disaster and in my books 7th not much better.

Not sure Richmond are locks, Tarranto & Hopper improve their midfield no doubt but can take a while for a midfield group to gell.. Cotchin is at the back end of his career.. They have average rucks, a poor defence with Grimes and Broad ageing, Balta is okay but not in the top levels of d and Jack Riewoldt is basically finished and no support for Lynch up forward. Who knows what shape Dusty returns in for 2023.. Type of side that if it all comes together they could certainly win the whole thing but could also continue to slide and miss the 8 altogether.

 

[TerryWallet]

1. Brisbane - Huge chance to finish top. Zero chance for Premiers.
2. Melbourne - Heard whispers of continued off field worries. But i'll go with my onfield rating.
3. Carlton - I barrack for them so i'll pick confidently. Realistic too.
4. Sydney - Honest, driven side. This seems right in their tight range.
5. Geelong - Even with a flag hangover, the inbuilt draw advantage can't see them finish much lower
6. Richmond - Wildcard. Best players are very ageing. But with recruits, could have another run this year.
7. Fremantle - I like Longmuir. He's real. Pretty tight range for Freo around here.
8. Collingwood - Yes they had luck last year. Yes, teams will have scouted McCrae's game. Yes they play with spirit.
9. W. Bulldogs - Wildcard. To me they are just not balanced.

10. G.C Suns - Good, improving. But it's always a longgggg year for GCS.
11. P. Adelaide - Not a believer. Bit fake. Which i believe is what grinds gears of Port fans with Ken.

12. Adelaide - Pretty tight range around here. Improving gradually but still terrible midfield.
13. West Coast - Should improve a bit ladderwise this year, but list in bad shape.
14. St Kilda - Reaping the reward for short sightedness. A mess. Ross is no longer a Boss.
15. GWS - The guts have fallen out of them. How do you motivate them this year? Tough task.
16. * - Spine of Zerk-Stewart/Reid-Weideman-2Metre is horribly weak. Dodoro midfield is still same failing mix.
17. Hawthorn - Hard rebuild. Hard times.
18. North - Still doing it tough. Doing it right though, and expect nice improvement in 2024.


Wildcard sides are us, Richmond and Bulldogs.

With us it is clearly injury related. We have an injury prone list. Fact. I expect injuries, but it is just how many. Our top end is elite and that, above any other measure, is what wins games.

With Richmond, Cotchin, Reiwoldt, Martin, Tarrant are really ageing. Edwards and Lambert will be missed. Even Grimes is showing signs. Yes, they have recruited Taranto and Hopper, but are they the O'Meara, Tom Mitchell wallpapering over the cracks attempts that Hawthorn made? I think they may have one more fakeish run this year, but don't expect them to win a prelim. Lynch could get them to the prelim if other things go right.

With Bulldogs, their team seems about as scatty nuts as Bevo these days. I like Bevo, like RDB, Parkin, Sheedy, Malthouse, he is nuts. When they get things right they can take teams to flags. But how can you work WB's out. Since their 16 flag, they have been massive teases. To me it seems they have been a team divided. Team Badboys & Team Goodboys. Both groups have lost their leaders. Hunter and Cordy for the Baddies and Dunkley for the Goodies. Is this a belated attempt by Bevo to try to get everyone on the same page? Will it work? Was it even a problem? Is their team balanced? or out of whack? Is Bevo nuts? Can his nutsness conjure another flag run? ..... so many Q's with the Bullies.

 

[goreds]

Not so sure how you are so positive on Richmond, if you compare our list age profile to theirs our best 6-10 players are in a much better age profile than the tigers list, our best players are 22-25, yet the Tigers have Riewoldt/Cotchin/Lynch/Martin & among others all very much in the back end of their career.

They scrapped into the 8, & yes they have picked up two players but maybe some of those 30+ players will start to fall away further in 23, we have a large group with more upside in the phrase of their career, l would be surprised if we do not finish above the Tigers.

*See Geelong side for comparisons to age and top up players…

Tigers still better on the outside than us, run and delivery better…