Opinion 2023 Pass mark (Nicks keeps job)

[Jeffcrowe]

True that.

A weird year. We could have easily beaten Freo and Essendon at the start of the year and got off to a flyer. Or lost those and the Port game and it would have seemed terrible.

Probably where we ended up is about where we should be.

We coughed up that freo game and got lucky in showdown

Should have beaten Essendon in hindsight

The game we p1ssed against the wall was the saints game at home

We were all over them other than finishing them off , wasting so many chances

The most frustrating game in terms of performance was the hawks game for mine where we didn’t turn up

 

[crow2crow]

We coughed up that freo game and got lucky in showdown

Should have beaten Essendon in hindsight

The game we p1ssed against the wall was the saints game at home

We were all over them other than finishing them off , wasting so many chances

The most frustrating game in terms of performance was the hawks game for mine where we didn’t turn up

we didnt turn up for gws either other than that completely agree

 

[Danger in Texas]

We coughed up that freo game and got lucky in showdown

Should have beaten Essendon in hindsight

The game we p1ssed against the wall was the saints game at home

We were all over them other than finishing them off , wasting so many chances

The most frustrating game in terms of performance was the hawks game for mine where we didn’t turn up

Hawks and GWS games equally frustrating, for mine

There's going to be games where you get lucky and games where you don't every year, usually equalling each other out, but it feels like we let a lot more chances slip than usual this year for reasons not necessarily beyond our control

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Hawks and GWS games equally frustrating, for mine

There's going to be games where you get lucky and games where you don't every year, usually equalling each other out, but it feels like we let a lot more chances slip than usual this year for reasons not necessarily beyond our control

Never got too upset with giants game because they just flogged us and all their best talents dominated and made us look 2nd rate

The hawks game we got flogged but lesser lights which made it more frustrating

Bulldogs game prob pipped the showdown for best win , we were hard and tough and resilient . Didn’t mind the win over west coast in Perth either given the hype and game JK played

 

[Danger in Texas]

Never got too upset with giants game because they just flogged us and all their best talents dominated and made us look 2nd rate

The hawks game we got flogged but lesser lights which made it more frustrating

Bulldogs game prob pipped the showdown for best win , we were hard and tough and resilient . Didn’t mind the win over west coast in Perth either given the hype and game JK played

Just frustrating given GWS's (lack of) performance both leading into that game, as well as later in the season. Also a home game. We just straight-up didn't show up at all

Hawks game was frustrating because a lot of our own mistakes (both selection and in-game) let us down, should have otherwise been winnable

Carlton game probably my favourite as it was the catalyst of knocking them out of finals haha, a lot of smart play from us in that game that we didn't see consistently last season

 

[Mr_Moogle]

I think the Freo game was the most frustrating for me. It was round 1 so the optimism hadn't been beaten out of me yet. It always hurts more when you still have hope. Thilthorpe being dropped afterward wasn't great either.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Just frustrating given GWS's (lack of) performance both leading into that game, as well as later in the season. Also a home game. We just straight-up didn't show up at all

Hawks game was frustrating because a lot of our own mistakes (both selection and in-game) let us down, should have otherwise been winnable

Carlton game probably my favourite as it was the catalyst of knocking them out of finals haha, a lot of smart play from us in that game that we didn't see consistently last season

Love beating Carlton

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Love beating Carlton

Would be sweet to play them in the final round & knock them out of finals contention.

 

[Sanders]

I’m not sure about all this culture stuff. I agree it was bad before, and it seems to be better now (?)

That said, I’m intrigued by how
Culture is seen in American football. Players leave college programs, complain about NFL coaches, looking to go to successful places where they will be coached hard to get the best of themselves

Here we seem to suggest culture means hugs and twinkle ponies

I’m just not sure I believe that, players who don’t improve find themselves selling insurance or laying garden pavers sooner than planned

And if a good culture doesn’t produce on the field, then it’s not a good culture

One of many reasons I believe this year is a lot more crucial than some others

 

[cleanhands]

I’m not sure about all this culture stuff. I agree it was bad before, and it seems to be better now (?)

That said, I’m intrigued by how
Culture is seen in American football. Players leave college programs, complain about NFL coaches, looking to go to successful places where they will be coached hard to get the best of themselves

Here we seem to suggest culture means hugs and twinkle ponies

I’m just not sure I believe that, players who don’t improve find themselves selling insurance or laying garden pavers sooner than planned

And if a good culture doesn’t produce on the field, then it’s not a good culture

One of many reasons I believe this year is a lot more crucial than some others

Hey ……Nothing wrong with paving layers

 

[Sanders]

Hey ……Nothing wrong with paving layers

Hence, the sooner than planned

 

[WetCrow1991]

Measurable improvement will probably be a pass mark. That doesn't mean beating up on more bottom teams that we play twice. In line with that, if we see a repeat of 2022 Nicks will be getting the sack.

Nicks cannot afford another run like we had from round 7 where we went 5-11. Those 5 wins against the 2 worst teams in the league and Carlton (lol).

Give me a break, we got smashed by GWS at home and then a few weeks later they sacked their coach. The complete lack of competitiveness in round 7 was unacceptable and flowed through the rest of the season.

Most of my hopes are pinned on the second season impact of the fitness guru on the squad, tempered by the inevitable constant centre square appearances of a 33 year old recovering from an ACL who was beyond cooked before the ACL.

 

[Mr_Moogle]

Measurable improvement will probably be a pass mark. That doesn't mean beating up on more bottom teams that we play twice. In line with that, if we see a repeat of 2022 Nicks will be getting the sack.

Nicks cannot afford another run like we had from round 7 where we went 5-11. Those 5 wins against the 2 worst teams in the league and Carlton (lol).

Give me a break, we got smashed by GWS at home and then a few weeks later they sacked their coach. The complete lack of competitiveness in round 7 was unacceptable and flowed through the rest of the season.

Laughing at Carlton is acceptable but anyone who took encouragement out of those late wins is a rube who should be shot into the sun. North were truly awful and West Coast were tanking like pros.

 

[LeftyLuke]

We coughed up that freo game and got lucky in showdown

Should have beaten Essendon in hindsight

The game we p1ssed against the wall was the saints game at home

We were all over them other than finishing them off , wasting so many chances

The most frustrating game in terms of performance was the hawks game for mine where we didn’t turn up

Hawks and the gws game. Two years in a row gws have pumped us.

 

[AFC979810]

I’m not sure about all this culture stuff. I agree it was bad before, and it seems to be better now (?)

It would appear the culture stuff is sorted now.

Last two offseasons we have had no best 22 players leave, and have secured 2 highly sought after players from other clubs in Rankine and Dawson.

We have 21 players (over half of our list) who never would have even met Don Pyke.

 

[Sanders]

It would appear the culture stuff is sorted now.

Last two offseasons we have had no best 22 players leave, and have secured 2 highly sought after players from other clubs in Rankine and Dawson.

We have 21 players (over half of our list) who never would have even met Don Pyke.

I wonder whether with players who don’t want to be coached hard, if the line between character issues & culture problems gets a bit blurry?

 

[AFC979810]

I have 2025 as the year we should have realistic expectations of making the finals. Anyone who thinks that's even a possibility in 2023 or 2024 either has no understanding whatsoever of our team list, has rocks in their head, or both.

Adelaide Crows 2020 - Average Age - 23.9 (13th oldest), Average games 57.8 games (13th oldest) - 3 wins.

Adelaide Crows 2021 - Average Age - 23.6 (18th oldest), Average games 54.2 games (16th oldest) - 7 wins

Adelaide Crows 2022 - Average age - 23.5 (18th oldest), Average games 45.6 games (18th oldest) - 8 wins

Adelaide Crows 2023 - Average age - 24 years (17th oldest), Average games 56.1 (17th oldest).

Whats interesting is that you really believe that it should be 2025 until we challenge for finals.

Collingwood 2022 - Average age - 24.1 years, Average games 61.1 games - 16 wins in 2022 - 1 point away from a Grand Final. Improved by 10 wins.
Fremantle 2022 - Average age - 24.1 years, Average games 58.7 games - 15 wins in 2022. Improved by 5 wins on previous year.
Brisbane 2021 - Average age 23.9 years, Average games 60.7 - 15 wins in 2021.
Essendon 2021 - Average age 23.8 years, Average games 53.7 - 11 wins and finals.

Thats 4 teams with very very similar list profiles to us that have made the finals in the past two years.

Why shouldn't we expected to make the leap?

Nicks will have had 4 preseasons now. We have added Rankine to our best 22 and now have 11 first round draft picks on our list.

We should be pushing for finals this year if Nicks is any good.

 

[crow2crow]

Adelaide Crows 2020 - Average Age - 23.9 (13th oldest), Average games 57.8 games (13th oldest) - 3 wins.

Adelaide Crows 2021 - Average Age - 23.6 (18th oldest), Average games 54.2 games (16th oldest) - 7 wins

Adelaide Crows 2022 - Average age - 23.5 (18th oldest), Average games 45.6 games (18th oldest) - 8 wins

Adelaide Crows 2023 - Average age - 24 years (17th oldest), Average games 56.1 (17th oldest).

Whats interesting is that you really believe that it should be 2025 until we challenge for finals.

Collingwood 2022 - Average age - 24.1 years, Average games 61.1 games - 16 wins in 2022 - 1 point away from a Grand Final. Improved by 10 wins.
Fremantle 2022 - Average age - 24.1 years, Average games 58.7 games - 15 wins in 2022. Improved by 5 wins on previous year.
Brisbane 2021 - Average age 23.9 years, Average games 60.7 - 15 wins in 2021.
Essendon 2021 - Average age 23.8 years, Average games 53.7 - 11 wins and finals.

Thats 4 teams with very very similar list profiles to us that have made the finals in the past two years.

Why shouldn't we expected to make the leap?

Nicks will have had 4 preseasons now. We have added Rankine to our best 22 and now have 11 first round draft picks on our list.

We should be pushing for finals this year if Nicks is any good.

nicks would appear a fantastic off field coach but selection and game day tactics is sub par so far

 

[AFC979810]

11-12 wins gets you into the finals. That's the 2025 target.

9-10 wins in 2024.

So you think the club would really be happy with this?

After missing the finals in 2018,2019,2020:

2021 - 7 wins
2022 - 8 wins
2023 - 9 wins
2024 - 10 wins
2025 - 11-12 wins and sneak into finals?

For the record - There are only two coaches in history who have coached over 100 games at one club and never made the finals.

Alan Richardson with St.Kilda took over a 5 win team - then went 4 wins, 6 wins, 12 wins, 11 wins, 4 wins, sacked midseason. Finished with a winning percentage of 34%.

Stuart Dew took over a 6 win team and went 4wins, 3 wins, 5 wins (reduced season), 7 wins, 10 wins. Has a winning percentage of 27%.

You really think that in a two team football town - the pressure won't become untenable? You think that at the end of 2024 - the club is gonna back in Mathew Nicks with a 37 win - 67 loss record, no finals appearances and a 35% winning record?

Aint no way Nicks survives missing the 8 in 2023 & 2024.

 

[Danger in Texas]

So you think the club would really be happy with this?

After missing the finals in 2018,2019,2020:

2021 - 7 wins
2022 - 8 wins
2023 - 9 wins
2024 - 10 wins
2025 - 11-12 wins and sneak into finals?

For the record - There are only two coaches in history who have coached over 100 games at one club and never made the finals.

Alan Richardson with St.Kilda took over a 5 win team - then went 4 wins, 6 wins, 12 wins, 11 wins, 4 wins, sacked midseason. Finished with a winning percentage of 34%.

Stuart Dew took over a 6 win team and went 4wins, 3 wins, 5 wins (reduced season), 7 wins, 10 wins. Has a winning percentage of 27%.

You really think that in a two team football town - the pressure won't become untenable? You think that at the end of 2024 - the club is gonna back in Mathew Nicks with a 37 win - 67 loss record, no finals appearances and a 35% winning record?

Aint no way Nicks survives missing the 8 in 2023 & 2024.

Yep - I’d accept no finals in 2023 (provided development was obvious and there to see) - I don’t think I’d accept no finals in 2024

Hopefully the club feels the same way

 

[1970crow]

This seems the most reasonable response.

I've personally heard Silvers and Jameson discussing Nicks privately and say how good a job he's doing.

Eventually that will wear off - I think a lot of the positivity is actually about how's he's fixed a selfish culture - but it's not until he has a year where they do less well than expected.

So far he's probably overachieved, though that's maybe come through an inconsistency.

Has he fixed the selfish culture though? The captain forcing a public captaincy sacking by telling everyone he’s not standing down under his own steam. Sounds like the senior player entitlement issue not totally resolved.

 

[Vader]

So you think the club would really be happy with this?

After missing the finals in 2018,2019,2020:

2021 - 7 wins
2022 - 8 wins
2023 - 9 wins
2024 - 10 wins
2025 - 11-12 wins and sneak into finals?

For the record - There are only two coaches in history who have coached over 100 games at one club and never made the finals.

Alan Richardson with St.Kilda took over a 5 win team - then went 4 wins, 6 wins, 12 wins, 11 wins, 4 wins, sacked midseason. Finished with a winning percentage of 34%.

Stuart Dew took over a 6 win team and went 4wins, 3 wins, 5 wins (reduced season), 7 wins, 10 wins. Has a winning percentage of 27%.

You really think that in a two team football town - the pressure won't become untenable? You think that at the end of 2024 - the club is gonna back in Mathew Nicks with a 37 win - 67 loss record, no finals appearances and a 35% winning record?

Aint no way Nicks survives missing the 8 in 2023 & 2024.

My guess for targets for future years:
2023 - 7-8 wins
2024 - 10 wins
2025 - 12 wins, finals

No, I don't think that the pressure would be untenable. I think they will hold the course, knowing that they committed to a ground-up rebuild, with all that this entails.

We're not making the finals in 2023 or 2024, and the club won't be sacking him based on unrealistic expectations by ignorant fans who demand success now, without any fundamental understanding of what that entails.

 

[Vader]

Adelaide Crows 2020 - Average Age - 23.9 (13th oldest), Average games 57.8 games (13th oldest) - 3 wins.

Adelaide Crows 2021 - Average Age - 23.6 (18th oldest), Average games 54.2 games (16th oldest) - 7 wins

Adelaide Crows 2022 - Average age - 23.5 (18th oldest), Average games 45.6 games (18th oldest) - 8 wins

Adelaide Crows 2023 - Average age - 24 years (17th oldest), Average games 56.1 (17th oldest).

Whats interesting is that you really believe that it should be 2025 until we challenge for finals.

Collingwood 2022 - Average age - 24.1 years, Average games 61.1 games - 16 wins in 2022 - 1 point away from a Grand Final. Improved by 10 wins.
Fremantle 2022 - Average age - 24.1 years, Average games 58.7 games - 15 wins in 2022. Improved by 5 wins on previous year.
Brisbane 2021 - Average age 23.9 years, Average games 60.7 - 15 wins in 2021.
Essendon 2021 - Average age 23.8 years, Average games 53.7 - 11 wins and finals.

Thats 4 teams with very very similar list profiles to us that have made the finals in the past two years.

Why shouldn't we expected to make the leap?

Nicks will have had 4 preseasons now. We have added Rankine to our best 22 and now have 11 first round draft picks on our list.

We should be pushing for finals this year if Nicks is any good.

Have a look at how their experience is distributed. They have a lot more players in the 50+ and 100+ game categories than Adelaide. Adelaide have a smattering of highly experienced players (150+), then it's a huge gap back to the likes of Keays & Dawson, and another gap back to the sub-50 game players.

Note that Adelaide's average games will drop from 56.1, once we add 3 new recruits in the ND & RD.

The youngest & least experienced reference side you gave was Essendon 2021. Their Elimination Final team had 6 players with 100+ games experience, and another 9 with 50+. Adelaide's R23 team had only 3 & 8. Adelaide had 12 players with < 50 games, to Essendon's 8. Essendon's team averaged 80.4 games, to Adelaide's 68.8. We're still miles off having the experience of even the least experienced reference team.

 

[AFC979810]

Have a look at how their experience is distributed. They have a lot more players in the 50+ and 100+ game categories than Adelaide. Adelaide have a smattering of highly experienced players (150+), then it's a huge gap back to the likes of Keays & Dawson, and another gap back to the sub-50 game players.

Note that Adelaide's average games will drop from 56.1, once we add 3 new recruits in the ND & RD.

The youngest & least experienced reference side you gave was Essendon 2021. Their Elimination Final team had 6 players with 100+ games experience, and another 9 with 50+. Adelaide's R23 team had only 3 & 8. Adelaide had 12 players with < 50 games, to Essendon's 8. Essendon's team averaged 80.4 games, to Adelaide's 68.8. We're still miles off having the experience of even the least experienced reference team.

1. Not really. Round 1 2022.

Less than 50 games - Freo 13 Adelaide 14
50 - 99 games - Freo 5 Adelaide 5
100 - 149 games - Freo 3 Adelaide 1
150 or more - Freo 2 Adelaide 3

Our Rd 1 2023 side will be a lot more experienced than our RD 1 2022 team.

2. I would think every other teams average games will drop further than ours as most teams around our bracket - Hawks, North, WCE, etc will have far more list spots to fill than us.

3. At the end of this season we would likely be identical to Essendon's elimination final team. We would have 6 players 100+ Games. Laird, Walker, Smith, Keays, Dawson,Sloane as 100+ gamers - Assuming Crouch and Seedsman aren't available. We would likely have 11+ players with 50 games experience as we head into the finals - Murphy, O'Brien, Milera, Doedee, Fogarty, Jones, McHenry, McAdam, Rankine, Berry, Butts, Schoenberg- with Scholl/Hamill/Himmleburg/McPherson being a chance.

Freo's Final side had 7 100+ gamers and 16 players that had played 0-99 games. Thats exactly what our list should look like at the end of 2023.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I wonder whether with players who don’t want to be coached hard, if the line between character issues & culture problems gets a bit blurry?

Not many Mitch McGovern’s left at the club

While lacking some class most of the current guys listed put their heads down and have a decent crack