Resource 2024 AFL Draft discussion thread (Wed Nov 20 to Fri Nov 22)

[Carmo]

I've been giving this a bit more thought. My previous answer was No. My new answer is ****ing HELL NO.

The reason for this is that Delisted players have until 13th November to nominate for the draft. Delistings have to occur before this date, to allow the players a chance to nominate. To do otherwise would be to effectively terminate their careers, without giving them any opportunity for finding a new home. There is no way in this universe, or any other, that either the AFL or AFLPA would allow this to happen.

Which is to say we can take 3 players in the draft, but not by delisting, but by making a subsequent main to rookie list swap out.

 

[Vader]

Which is to say we can take 3 players in the draft, but not by delisting, but by making a subsequent main to rookie list swap out.

No.

The only way we can take more than 2 players, across the ND/PSD/RD, is if we were to delist & payout a contracted player. Rookie<->Senior list swaps do not change the total number of players on our list, which currently stands at 40 of a possible 42, they just redistribute where the vacancy lies.

Note that paying a player out requires including their 2025 salary in our 2024 salary cap, which is already mostly spent. It's uncertain how much space we have remaining in our 2024 salary cap, and hence whether it is even possible for us to payout any of our contracted players.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Not sure Dyson is in the same conversation at Jason. Doesn’t have his power out of traffic. Long way to go until draft.

I said last year he was a bit overrated and nothing I’ve seen changes that. Good young footballer make no mistake but it’s still early days

He’s more JHF level than Draper

Definitely still a way to go but got him top rated around the country for next year at moment

 

[Jeffcrowe]

He’s playing league a year earlier than Draper isn’t he?

He played some outstanding league this year and looked right at home

Actually looked like centrals best player already which is phenomenal for bottom ager

They a decent team too

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Sharp when pitted up against his peers in the recent U17's Futures game was fairly average spending time in defence and the midfield.

Them Academy boys Beau Addinsall and Zeke Uwland were far and away the most impressive, Addinsall especially had a ripper game?

That’s one game !

And that was after a sanfl finals campaign where he looked centrals best player

like an after thought game for him compared to what he’d just been thru

Puts him fair way ahead of those guys

 

[Draft Bored]

Note that paying a player out requires including their 2025 salary in our 2024 salary cap.

I never knew this. Even more reason to do it if the cap space is there.

 

[GameofSloanes]

Ben Camporeale was All-Australian and got the MVP award for SA at the U18 Champs. I reckon he'll prove a decent pickup for Carlton. I don't know much about Lucas but I did see he got BOG in one of the games for SA too.

Might be another factor in why they're (apparently) very strongly considering Draper at 3.

The fact they're out of the Top 40 discussions is another signal on just how strong this draft is IMO.

Fisher McAsey was all australian too, means nothing

 

[Vader]

I never knew this. Even more reason to do it if the cap space is there.

It's not just the next year of the contract - it's any remaining years (e.g. we'd have to pay out Laird's 2025 & 2026 salaries if we decided to delist him this year).

That assumes that they don't get picked up by another club. If that happens, then we're only liable for part of the player's 2025 salary, and it goes in our 2025 cap (which is far less problematic).

 

[Big Dub]

No.

The only way we can take more than 2 players, across the ND/PSD/RD, is if we were to delist & payout a contracted player. Rookie<->Senior list swaps do not change the total number of players on our list, which currently stands at 40 of a possible 42, they just redistribute where the vacancy lies.

Note that paying a player out requires including their 2025 salary in our 2024 salary cap, which is already mostly spent. It's uncertain how much space we have remaining in our 2024 salary cap, and hence whether it is even possible for us to payout any of our contracted players.

What would be interesting is how close to the 105% we are. If we are under that after paying out a contract, it will make no difference to our net spend for 2024+2025.

There will be the impact of the salary of the new player that we bring in, but that will be somewhat offset by the amount of rookie salary not counted by retaining (or picking) another player on the rookie list.

 

[Mutineer]

The 2 SA lads I'd have given a shot as rookies if they go undrafted are Jay Polkinghorne a 191cm X factor high leaping forward that loves a snag and 179cm speedy goalkicking midfielder/small forward Jacob Newton a clever nuggety hard at it little terrier with a booming kick and extremely good overhead for his size..Bit of Caleb Serong

3

Caleb Serong

Age

24

Ht

180cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.0

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

6.0

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.6

5star

CL

2.6

4star

D

13.0

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

6.0

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.6

4star

CL

2.6

4star

D

13.0

4star

K

7.0

3star

HB

6.0

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.6

5star

CL

2.6

5star

about Newton I reckon.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

The 2 SA lads I'd have given a shot as rookies if they go undrafted are Jay Polkinghorne a 191cm X factor high leaping forward that loves a snag and 179cm speedy goalkicking midfielder/small forward Jacob Newton a clever nuggety hard at it little terrier with a booming kick and extremely good overhead for his size..Bit of Caleb Serong about Newton I reckon.

Can’t believe both Bowman and Polkinghorne took 2 of the best marks in junior footy of all time both at the same level for the same team in the same year

Polkinghornes almost better mark ? Both amazing

 

[Mutineer]

Can’t believe both Bowman and Polkinghorne took 2 of the best marks in junior footy of all time both at the same level for the same team in the same year

Polkinghornes almost better mark ? Both amazing

I think Polkinghorne would have really set the Nationals alight if he was up and going at full fitness, unfortunately he missed a lot of footy when he did his knee the 1st week of his preseason and spent 14 weeks rehabbing the injury before he could put in any serious work playing only the 6 SANFL U18's games and some for PAC. Still think he moght be a smpkey chance to get to an AFL club given he did get a State Combine invite.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I think Polkinghorne would have really set the Nationals alight if he was up and going at full fitness, unfortunately he missed a lot of footy when he did his knee the 1st week of his preseason and spent 14 weeks rehabbing the injury before he could put in any serious work playing only the 6 SANFL U18's games and some for PAC. Still think he moght be a smpkey chance to get to an AFL club given he did get a State Combine invite.

Yeah same

Another one that will be a watch for mid season draft if he doesn’t get picked up

 

[DaKids]

The 2 SA lads I'd have given a shot as rookies if they go undrafted are Jay Polkinghorne a 191cm X factor high leaping forward that loves a snag and 179cm speedy goalkicking midfielder/small forward Jacob Newton a clever nuggety hard at it little terrier with a booming kick and extremely good overhead for his size..Bit of Caleb Serong about Newton I reckon.

Couple of clubs over the border having a close look at Jay

 

[glengowan]

Agree Mutineer, especially Newton.

 

[Carmo]

I haven't seen many of the draftees, but I have watched a bit of Draper and so here's my take on what he's like as a player.

I have him as a Rory Sloane

9

Rory Sloane

Age

35

Ht

183cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.7

5star

K

11.7

4star

HB

11.9

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

6.6

5star

CL

5.7

5star

D

15.3

4star

K

7.3

3star

HB

8.0

4star

M

1.3

1star

T

3.3

4star

CL

4.2

5star

D

22.2

5star

K

8.6

4star

HB

13.6

5star

M

3.2

4star

T

6.0

5star

CL

4.6

5star

/ Rankine cross breed.

By that I mean to say he has Sloanes frenetic, fanatic, desperate, scrape and scratch competitiveness and crawl over broken glass, will himself to win the ball at all costs mentality - though he doesn't have this to the extent Sloane had it, but he also has a lot of Rankine like attributes, kick, speed, agility, footy IQ, but not to the extent that Rankine has them.

So a faster more skillful Sloaney type or a slightly slower and less skill but more down and dirty Rankine. Not a player to be discounted, especially, if he ends up with a bigger tank than either of those guys. That was one thing hard to tell from watching his SANFL, how big the tank was and the other was just what he'd be like in open attacking space as gets manufactured in AFL games but is a lot less common in a typical south game (low angle cameras don't help see this even when it does exist). Seems like a bit of Taylor too with pretty good ruck tap / center square craft. Anyway I'd be pretty happy with him.

 

[119others]

Jeffcrowe Mutineer ....this is a very intellectual discussion on the Draft ....a bit of fluff early on, but then gets right into player / club discussions ....highly recommend

Good stuff Wayne, listening to the start reminded me of a great book covering this and many other interesting (to me anyway) topics called Freakonomics and Superfreakonomics.

In this case, kids born earlier in the year are disproportionately successful throughout their career vs kids born later in the year (eg draft date start Jan 1st each year) due to naturally being more developed and having an edge early on therefore getting MORE coaching attention and many other similar things,

As an aside, 3-4 other memorable topics in the book covered:

• huge drop in violent crime a few decades after abortion was made more liberal in the US (not getting into Int’l politics here!) for obvious reasons
• real estate agents kept their OWN properties on the market 3 x longer than an average clients property. They would rather earn you (and their proportionate commission) 90% of true value after 4 weeks than get 105% of true value after a few months. (Ie they only get 10-15% more pay by doing 3 x as much work)
• NYC aged care had inherent lateness in pick ups of kids at the end of day, they thought bringing in a late fee ($5-10 per hr from memory) would REDUCE this but it had the opposite effect as suddenly parents didn’t feel as guilty being late picking up kids knowing they were “monetising their lateness”
• drug cartels run in a very similar way to large Organisations

Anyway sorry for sidetrack but fascinating book (audible, NF series was a little lame I thought)

 

[Mutineer]

You kmow it's a good and deep draft when guys like Harry are hardly rating a mention...

 

[TARANTULA]

The more I read about this draft, the more upset i am we only have one single pick in the top 60.....

 

[Jeffcrowe]

You kmow it's a good and deep draft when guys like Harry are hardly rating a mention...

Nice player ! Lost a bit of form in back half of year

You’re so right , most years he’d be a late 2nd rounder but not this year

 

[huludicidal]

I think Langford is terrific, his marking, endurance and long kicking make up for his lack of breakaway speed. But given we've spent 1st round picks on Dawson (as a trade) Curtin (if he's to be a mid) and Edwards, I just can't see us using another one on an oversized mid. Wouldn't make any sense - if we think Curtin and Edwards have a future, which you'd hope we do a year after we drafted them.

Has to be either speed (Draper) or skill (Smith) assuming Lalor and FOS are gone. Those are the things missing from our mix.

I completely agree with this logic surrounding it not making much sense to pick Langford, and it’s exactly this which makes me think we will therefore pick Langford.

Haha no, honestly I think all signs now point to Draper being our guy.

I don’t think Carlton will take Draper - it just reeks of them trading up to take Walsh’s cousin to me. He’s actually a really nice list fit for them too. If he’s off the board before their pick, you’d think they’d pull the trigger on Jagga.

I know Richmond won’t take Draper at pick 1. They’re pretty obviously tossing up between Lalor and Jagga (with FOS the only other one in the mix), and I’d be stunned if anyone else went at pick 1.

North, or North trading their pick 2 present somewhat of a wildcard in the Draper stakes, but ultimately I just feel like the first 3 guys off the board (other than Ashcroft) are going to all be from Victoria (3 of Lalor, Smith, FOS, Langford).

 

[SellarStardom]

What's everyone's thoughts if Draper is taken before 4.

I would take Smith but in all likelihood he will be gone. So then if there is a choice between FOS and Lalor, which one is the pick.

Basically I have outlined my 1, 2 and 3/4 picks

 

[Jeffcrowe]

What's everyone's thoughts if Draper is taken before 4.

I would take Smith but in all likelihood he will be gone. So then if there is a choice between FOS and Lalor, which one is the pick.

Basically I have outlined my 1, 2 and 3/4 picks

I got smith ahead of Draper anyway so I’d take smith if Draper was gone (and presuming Lalor also gone )

Lalor if he was there

Hearing Draper has alot of interest from vic clubs ahead of us especially Richmond and Carlton

 

[Mutineer]

I'm with the hound dog's thinking....

Lalor, FOS, Draper or Bo Allan suit us...

Bass on with Kymbo.

 

[latinoheat]

I'm with the hound dog's thinking....

Lalor, FOS, Draper or Bo Allan suit us...

Bass on with Kymbo.

Was that the right link ?