Opinion 2024 and Beyond

[Kiama Chris]

Brisbane had three - Rayner, Cameron & McCarthy. Four if you include Ah Chee. Carlton had three - Fogarty, Cottrell, Motlop. Even Brisbane were lucky to only lose by under a goal to the Pies considering they had about 10 less scoring shots, a disparity that was aided by the fact Collingwood had 14 more inside 50s, a disparity that was aided by Collingwood's superior forward pressure.

If you take Wicks out, where's the forward pressure gonna come from for us? I look at everyone else and they're all bitsa types. They can lay a tackle or put body on an opponent here and there but that manic chase, tackle, pressure isn't built into their game. I feel like we'd be very easy to repel from our forward 50 against.

I love Wicks and would not take him out unless he lost form drastically or Konstanty overtook him. Surely Rayner is Brisbane's version of Heeney? Carlton I grant you.

 

[Superstar swan]

Really hope warner can get back to his 2022 heights. He's a game change at his absolute best. He was solid this year but he can be alot better

 

[Nuggetz]

Slick wicks will be the robin to papleys batman. They had some good moments together in the 2nd half of last year. I hope we continue to let that combination develop. Promising signs.

 

[Millky95]

Slick wicks will be the robin to papleys batman. They had some good moments together in the 2nd half of last year. I hope we continue to let that combination develop. Promising signs.

Agreed. Wicks allowed Papley to play better imo

 

[Kiama Chris]

caesar88 talked about Pies and their 4 small forwards but I think we can get the same or better attacking impact out of Papley, Wicks, Gulden, Heeney, Campbell, Warner and McInerney with the right setup and approach. Getting the defensive pressure might be the bigger ask. Something to work on.

 

[mtooler]

Leaving aside the Hayward to defence question the rest of your proposition has a lot of merit. Interesting to see what, if any, changes to the game plan (and troops) we see. We have people like Corey available. HHK was the type you propose.

Yeah it was a bit of a shame that HHK didn't kick on with us for whatever reason, I thought he would. The other I thought we'd get a long term player out of was Jordan Lockyer, but he didn't get a shot at all.

 

[caesar88]

caesar88 talked about Pies and their 4 small forwards but I think we can get the same or better attacking impact out of Papley, Wicks, Gulden, Heeney, Campbell, Warner and McInerney with the right setup and approach. Getting the defensive pressure might be the bigger ask. Something to work on.

Oh for sure KC, I'm not worried about the attacking output of our ground level forwards. I feel like we've got a ridiculous number of players who on their day can hit the scoreboard. Even someone like Mills, whose best work is arguably in the defensive half of the ground, can still go forward and be a threat.

It's that defensive aspect you speak of. All those players you mention are all capable of laying tackles, putting body on etc. but I feel like none except Wicks and perhaps Heeney have that defensive aspect built into their game, where they will tackle and chase and throw their body around to create chaos. I feel like you need that for four quarters, every week, or the forward pressure really does drop off in a way that's noticeable.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Oh for sure KC, I'm not worried about the attacking output of our ground level forwards. I feel like we've got a ridiculous number of players who on their day can hit the scoreboard. Even someone like Mills, whose best work is arguably in the defensive half of the ground, can still go forward and be a threat.

It's that defensive aspect you speak of. All those players you mention are all capable of laying tackles, putting body on etc. but I feel like none except Wicks and perhaps Heeney have that defensive aspect built into their game, where they will tackle and chase and throw their body around to create chaos. I feel like you need that for four quarters, every week, or the forward pressure really does drop off in a way that's noticeable.

Needs to be a focus with three talls, although mostly only 2 at a time in the forward half, as none of them are agile in herding defenders as Reid or Wicks or Heeney do. They tackle just fine but creating pressure in space is much trickier.
The best example I can recall is Tom McCartin rounding up Kozi Pickett. Phenomenal!

 

[caesar88]

Needs to be a focus with three talls, although mostly only 2 at a time in the forward half, as none of them are agile in herding defenders as Reid or Wicks or Heeney do. They tackle just fine but creating pressure in space is much trickier.
The best example I can recall is Tom McCartin rounding up Kozi Pickett. Phenomenal!

Ain't that the truth! Showing the replay of our 2022 qualifying final at the G on repeat over the summer would be a great place to start!

 

[Bandicoot]

Oh for sure KC, I'm not worried about the attacking output of our ground level forwards. I feel like we've got a ridiculous number of players who on their day can hit the scoreboard. Even someone like Mills, whose best work is arguably in the defensive half of the ground, can still go forward and be a threat.

It's that defensive aspect you speak of. All those players you mention are all capable of laying tackles, putting body on etc. but I feel like none except Wicks and perhaps Heeney have that defensive aspect built into their game, where they will tackle and chase and throw their body around to create chaos. I feel like you need that for four quarters, every week, or the forward pressure really does drop off in a way that's noticeable.

From memory that was the very reason we drafted Konstanty. A tackling machine IIRC.

 

[Bloods86]

caesar88 - I've come up with some depth tables per position / player type, over the next decade, to help look at when we might have gaps etc. Should I just chuck them in here with initial thoughts (won't all be at once), or create a separate thread? This is "2024 and Beyond", so seems fitting.

 

[Callipygian]

Yeah it was a bit of a shame that HHK didn't kick on with us for whatever reason, I thought he would. The other I thought we'd get a long term player out of was Jordan Lockyer, but he didn't get a shot at all.

Jordan Lockyer didn't recover from being stripped of his number and having it reallocated.

 

[caesar88]

caesar88 - I've come up with some depth tables per position / player type, over the next decade, to help look at when we might have gaps etc. Should I just chuck them in here with initial thoughts (won't all be at once), or create a separate thread? This is "2024 and Beyond", so seems fitting.

Yeah I'd say this thread seems ideal for it

 

[Bloods86]

So I thought I'd do some projections of our list across the next decade, to identify gaps and when we might need to have newish, new or yet to join players ready by. I've broken this down with a bit more granularity in some positions, but I can't get ultra nuanced. There's a few players in multiple categories, but I haven't gone too far with this, rest assured we'll probably still give Paps some midfield minutes, Fox can play on smalls or talls in the short term, Magor may end up going back to the forward line etc etc. I refuse to entertain Ladhams as a forward option though.

Assumptions (I won't be repeating these, thank goodness):

• contract extensions are a given
• player form is reasonably consistent, closer to the better form a player has shown before, rather than basing it off inconsistent or poor years a player has had in 2023 (looking at you Isaac, Will et al)
• If I rate a player, the club rates a player and they have a generally good reputation, that they will be good ongoing and in the 22 despite any cries to the contrary (in before anyone tries any Rowbottom sniping)
• Kids or new draftees I've had to take a punt based on what we've seen and hype, had to assume a few recent draftees will become Best 22 (or the future looks scarier), and some I have hopes for like Magor, I just don't think I can be as confident
• So these inform the dark green (Best 22, shown to be good to great capability or highly rated) to lighter green (decent to good, many will be in the 22, kids hopefully turn out to be AFL quality if not stars).
• Yellow is for players with some uncertainty over how they'll be that year or turn out overall, or if they have considerable injury concerns so that they cannot be trusted. Melican is an example. If fit, he's Best 22 imo, so light green to dark green, but I just can't trust his body. Amartey was close but has had better luck getting on the park in the last 2 years.
• I've tried to taper players off as they get to around 32, a few like Lloyd I think are prolonged a little bit more given durability, others I've ended a year or two earlier given injury issues. Likewise I've guessed at how long new players, or younger players who've had injury issues, would take to get up to speed. That's the peach (won't impact, or on the way out) and grey colouring (done).
• I've stabbed at how many of each position we need e.g. we tend not to overload on genuine small forwards

Let me know if the resolution/size is rubbish. It'll be far better on PC/laptop.

KPDs

To me it's pretty clear that KPD is still an area of concern. We have the numbers, but there's reliability concerns and/or quality question marks over nearly everyone. I think we'll likely lose at least one, probably two of Melican, Francis, Arnold, Edwards either by delisting or they show enough, but can't get a gig. That's before assessing Rampe's final year prospects. So I think we go again for at least a mature ager (rookie, MSD, SSP) and a draftee (national, rookie) in the next 12-15 months. Even if Hamling, Francis, Arnold, Edwards produce the quality (and the latter 3 are retained), it's looking a little dicey from 2025-26 onwards based on age/readiness.

 

[Bloods86]

Won't be posting the rest until later, but finishing off the backline.

Medium and Small Defenders

After talls, which we've done some work on this off season via trade and draft, this is probably the area I have most concern over. As we'll see later, I think we have good half-back depth and options, but not so much those small/medium types with proven lockdown defensive capabilities. Maybe we turn Roberts or Kirk or Wicks into defenders, but that's pure speculation.

In an ideal world where Mills gets back to AA form in the mids, we have Fox and Cunningham as genuine quality (assuming no form fluctuations), but in the short term. Florent has done some decent defensive jobs (as we'll see, I rate his half back work a bit higher), but I don't know if he'll get to the level these other guys have shown for longer periods. Magor and Vickery the only other developing options.

If we have most or all of our young midfield options kick on to greater heights, then it may be that Mills becomes a defensive lock for the rest of his career. What a luxury to have tbh. Florent as a 2nd option. I'd be looking at another small option in the next 12 months, if we haven't considered this for Kirk etc already.



Half Backs

Maybe we look at a Lloyd type in upcoming drafts, in light of another option in Stephens leaving, but I think we're reasonably comfortable at half-back for the time being. There is some overlap with wing options (upcoming), in Campbell and JMac, but we do have other options further afield. Florent may end up being "general defender" but can switch to attack when needed.

As long as we're not crying out for other needs next year and neglect them, another half-back/wing type wouldn't be terrible, it might allow for someone like Campbell to move to half forward or even get some outside mid time. Maybe Florent to focus full time on defensive work as Cunningham finishes up.

 

[Kiama Chris]

So I thought I'd do some projections of our list across the next decade, to identify gaps and when we might need to have newish, new or yet to join players ready by. I've broken this down with a bit more granularity in some positions, but I can't get ultra nuanced. There's a few players in multiple categories, but I haven't gone too far with this, rest assured we'll probably still give Paps some midfield minutes, Fox can play on smalls or talls in the short term, Magor may end up going back to the forward line etc etc. I refuse to entertain Ladhams as a forward option though.

Assumptions (I won't be repeating these, thank goodness):

• contract extensions are a given
• player form is reasonably consistent, closer to the better form a player has shown before, rather than basing it off inconsistent or poor years a player has had in 2023 (looking at you Isaac, Will et al)
• If I rate a player, the club rates a player and they have a generally good reputation, that they will be good ongoing and in the 22 despite any cries to the contrary (in before anyone tries any Rowbottom sniping)
• Kids or new draftees I've had to take a punt based on what we've seen and hype, had to assume a few recent draftees will become Best 22 (or the future looks scarier), and some I have hopes for like Magor, I just don't think I can be as confident
• So these inform the dark green (Best 22, shown to be good to great capability or highly rated) to lighter green (decent to good, many will be in the 22, kids hopefully turn out to be AFL quality if not stars).
• Yellow is for players with some uncertainty over how they'll be that year or turn out overall, or if they have considerable injury concerns so that they cannot be trusted. Melican is an example. If fit, he's Best 22 imo, so light green to dark green, but I just can't trust his body. Amartey was close but has had better luck getting on the park in the last 2 years.
• I've tried to taper players off as they get to around 32, a few like Lloyd I think are prolonged a little bit more given durability, others I've ended a year or two earlier given injury issues. Likewise I've guessed at how long new players, or younger players who've had injury issues, would take to get up to speed. That's the peach (won't impact, or on the way out) and grey colouring (done).
• I've stabbed at how many of each position we need e.g. we tend not to overload on genuine small forwards

Let me know if the resolution/size is rubbish. It'll be far better on PC/laptop.

KPDs

To me it's pretty clear that KPD is still an area of concern. We have the numbers, but there's reliability concerns and/or quality question marks over nearly everyone. I think we'll likely lose at least one, probably two of Melican, Francis, Arnold, Edwards either by delisting or they show enough, but can't get a gig. That's before assessing Rampe's final year prospects. So I think we go again for at least a mature ager (rookie, MSD, SSP) and a draftee (national, rookie) in the next 12-15 months. Even if Hamling, Francis, Arnold, Edwards produce the quality (and the latter 3 are retained), it's looking a little dicey from 2025-26 onwards based on age/readiness.

View attachment 1862482

Love the approach!
May I suggest you add lines for potential trade ins or draftees in a second tab so we can see what that would look like. Obviously assume they are good enough.
This is similar to the approach we used in succession planning in a major multinational that moved people around a lot.
I agree with your conclusion here too.
As you say, when you get to multi-position players you may need to run them in multiple groups or find another way to account for that.
You would imagine the list managers would do something similar.

 

[Bloods86]

Love the approach!
May I suggest you add lines for potential trade ins or draftees in a second tab so we can see what that would look like. Obviously assume they are good enough.
This is similar to the approach we used in succession planning in a major multinational that moved people around a lot.
I agree with your conclusion here too.
As you say, when you get to multi-position players you may need to run them in multiple groups or find another way to account for that.
You would imagine the list managers would do something similar.

Fair call. I guess I've estimated the numbers we need, and when you start seeing significantly less green lines, that indicates we need players ready by then. Whether draft a few years earlier, or trade. So for KPDs, small/medium defenders, I think we either need to find some more on our current list, or get some more in as soon as we can (kind of what I've tried to do with the position header bar, to summarise positionally where we're at in a given year, not just at individual player level).

 

[Kiama Chris]

Won't be posting the rest until later, but finishing off the backline.

Medium and Small Defenders

After talls, which we've done some work on this off season via trade and draft, this is probably the area I have most concern over. As we'll see later, I think we have good half-back depth and options, but not so much those small/medium types with proven lockdown defensive capabilities. Maybe we turn Roberts or Kirk or Wicks into defenders, but that's pure speculation.

In an ideal world where Mills gets back to AA form in the mids, we have Fox and Cunningham as genuine quality (assuming no form fluctuations), but in the short term. Florent has done some decent defensive jobs (as we'll see, I rate his half back work a bit higher), but I don't know if he'll get to the level these other guys have shown for longer periods. Magor and Vickery the only other developing options.

If we have most or all of our young midfield options kick on to greater heights, then it may be that Mills becomes a defensive lock for the rest of his career. What a luxury to have tbh. Florent as a 2nd option. I'd be looking at another small option in the next 12 months, if we haven't considered this for Kirk etc already.

View attachment 1862494

Half Backs

Maybe we look at a Lloyd type in upcoming drafts, in light of another option in Stephens leaving, but I think we're reasonably comfortable at half-back for the time being. There is some overlap with wing options (upcoming), in Campbell and JMac, but we do have other options further afield. Florent may end up being "general defender" but can switch to attack when needed.

As long as we're not crying out for other needs next year and neglect them, another half-back/wing type wouldn't be terrible, it might allow for someone like Campbell to move to half forward or even get some outside mid time.

View attachment 1862500

Again I agree with your conclusion but here I think we are more able to shuffle the magnets than with the talls. Jordon coming in might allow us to swing Campbell or McInerney back if we need to. I'm not sure we need another Lloyd if one or two of our existing list can play the key parts of his role. More worried about the lockdown small post Harry. I think nowadays Rampe is much more a general defender than a key. His leadership though is vital.

 

[rustycrate]

Oh for sure KC, I'm not worried about the attacking output of our ground level forwards. I feel like we've got a ridiculous number of players who on their day can hit the scoreboard. Even someone like Mills, whose best work is arguably in the defensive half of the ground, can still go forward and be a threat.

It's that defensive aspect you speak of. All those players you mention are all capable of laying tackles, putting body on etc. but I feel like none except Wicks and perhaps Heeney have that defensive aspect built into their game, where they will tackle and chase and throw their body around to create chaos. I feel like you need that for four quarters, every week, or the forward pressure really does drop off in a way that's noticeable.

You left out Sheldrick. Defensively he can do the bolded.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Fair call. I guess I've estimated the numbers we need, and when you start seeing significantly less green lines, that indicates we need players ready by then. Whether draft a few years earlier, or trade. So for KPDs, small/medium defenders, I think we either need to find some more on our current list, or get some more in as soon as we can (kind of what I've tried to do with the position header bar, to summarise positionally where we're at in a given year, not just at individual player level).

Can't emphasize how much I like what you're doing here.

 

[rustycrate]

I don't think we have anyone who can bring forward pressure like Wicks and I feel like it's something we need more of, not less of. Collingwood won a flag with four natural small forwards and we want to essentially go in with only one (Papley) just because the other (Wicks) isn't a glamorous option. Doesn't sound promising to me...

I reckon Sheldrick can.

 

[Bloods86]

Again I agree with your conclusion but here I think we are more able to shuffle the magnets than with the talls. Jordon coming in might allow us to swing Campbell or McInerney back if we need to. I'm not sure we need another Lloyd if one or two of our existing list can play the key parts of his role. More worried about the lockdown small post Harry. I think nowadays Rampe is much more a general defender than a key. His leadership though is vital.

Yeah, I think we're reasonably flexible in the wing/HB area. It's the lockdown types in defence that are the bigger worry. Maybe Florent and another stint for Campbell if we get desperate, but the latter I'd prefer to have distributing than spoiling.

 

[caesar88]

Elite work Bloods86!

 

[Bloods86]

Elite work Bloods86!

It's pretty much just looking at ages, knowing the team and issues that players might face / have faced. I do like having a visual of upcoming gaps/needs, and it helps to show why the likes of Rampe, newcomer Hamling, and other older players shouldn't be considered as blockers in drafting, or even some trading decisions.

 

[Jewelsbon]

That's brilliant Bloods, thanks for your hard work