List Mgmt. 2024 Draft & Trade Hypotheticals

[Kirkswan]

The belief that soccer and basketball “run second to league” is a myth.

Concern for rugby league in Australia as participation numbers compared with other sports - Serious About Rugby League

Rugby league is often seen as the most popular sport in Australia – the football of Australia. This is where the strength of sport often lies, in the eyes of many at least. It is the strength of the sport down under that has seen them dominate the world stage. They made it three Rugby […]

www.seriousaboutrl.com

Thanks... do you know where the author is from? Why is he calling soccer football?

I'd be curious to know the parameters for those figures... in particular what's excluded? I feel that it may lack some credibility as it appears to be provided by a RL interest... Does it include the inter-school comps, or just those under the RL banner? I'm somehow not convinced.

I know that when my sons came to an age where they could play sport, their choices were league, T-ball, soccer, swimming, or some type of martial arts, and at that time we lived in greater Sydney. There were no AFL clubs available, and I like the vast the majority of mothers I knew, steered them away from league as much too rough and injury provoking. The whole scrum thing gives me nightmares... During the 80s and 90s, soccer was the fast growing sport in NSW, and those numbers were mostly on the back of greater Sydney. So I'm not surprised that 30-40 years on its at the top...

However, I'm not doubting you... just wondering about the source, and the spin they (possibly) put on the numbers... I might have quick look around for what I can find in NSW

 

[Ticky009]

Big game for those who follow the Draft tomorrow.

VFL Metro vs Young Guns - Streaming link is in the article and is freely available

2024 Young Guns Series announced

A host of Victoria's top prospects in contention for this year's AFL Mid-Season Rookie Draft will feature against the state's best under 18 boys footballers in the 2024 Young Guns Series

www.afl.com.au

 

[bedford]

That's Rugby Union, not League.

Same , both no good

 

[bedford]

Big game for those who follow the Draft tomorrow.

VFL Metro vs Young Guns - Streaming link is in the article and is freely available

2024 Young Guns Series announced

A host of Victoria's top prospects in contention for this year's AFL Mid-Season Rookie Draft will feature against the state's best under 18 boys footballers in the 2024 Young Guns Series

www.afl.com.au

A boy i love from my club Luke Kennedy is there , he won our B and F at 16 , absolute star, great family hope he gets picked up.
Sandy Dragons , another one , the footy factory in the S/E Melbourne

 

[caesar88]

No contract extensions announced this week. Does anyone else feel like Beatson is emotionally checked out?

 

[rustycrate]

No contract extensions announced this week. Does anyone else feel like Beatson is emotionally checked out?

No.

 

[Crust]

Thanks... do you know where the author is from? Why is he calling soccer football?

I'd be curious to know the parameters for those figures... in particular what's excluded? I feel that it may lack some credibility as it appears to be provided by a RL interest... Does it include the inter-school comps, or just those under the RL banner? I'm somehow not convinced.

I know that when my sons came to an age where they could play sport, their choices were league, T-ball, soccer, swimming, or some type of martial arts, and at that time we lived in greater Sydney. There were no AFL clubs available, and I like the vast the majority of mothers I knew, steered them away from league as much too rough and injury provoking. The whole scrum thing gives me nightmares... During the 80s and 90s, soccer was the fast growing sport in NSW, and those numbers were mostly on the back of greater Sydney. So I'm not surprised that 30-40 years on its at the top...

However, I'm not doubting you... just wondering about the source, and the spin they (possibly) put on the numbers... I might have quick look around for what I can find in NSW

There's a thing in Nsw at least that you can't call it soccer anymore. All the papers refer to it as "football". Of course that is a massive wank so I continue to say soccer.
When my son was playing in the U10s some years ago I referred to it as soccer and got the typical "it's not soccer it's football".
My usual response to that is to say "Ah yes that explains why the National team is called the Footballeroos". That usually shuts them up.

 

[Jewelsbon]

There's a thing in Nsw at least that you can't call it soccer anymore. All the papers refer to it as "football". Of course that is a massive wank so I continue to say soccer.
When my son was playing in the U10s some years ago I referred to it as soccer and got the typical "it's not soccer it's football".
My usual response to that is to say "Ah yes that explains why the National team is called the Footballeroos". That usually shuts them up.

I have to remember that, I cop the same thing from my 7yo grandson when I say he plays soccer.

 

[Dubai Quacker]

There's a thing in Nsw at least that you can't call it soccer anymore. All the papers refer to it as "football". Of course that is a massive wank so I continue to say soccer.
When my son was playing in the U10s some years ago I referred to it as soccer and got the typical "it's not soccer it's football".
My usual response to that is to say "Ah yes that explains why the National team is called the Footballeroos". That usually shuts them up.

When I was at school it was still called w*gball.

Soccer is fine by me.

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

I agree. All that needs to happen is that the points need to be rebalanced to give the higher picks more value. It would be the cleanest, most efficient response without over-complicating things. In addition, it still allows clubs to trade out of the first round to accumulate points so that clubs without academy/FS picks can take advantage of extra first round picks for themselves.

Yeah agree

My understanding is that the points weightings are based on average games played by different picks. If this is so, it doesn’t pick up the quality of those games (200 games from a 1st round pick will generally be more valuable than 200 games from a fourth round pick).

I’m not the biggest fan of champion data or whatever, but if you used that as the basis - total average champion data points over each pick’s career - I reckon you would get a better balance, with the top end picks being worth more than they are now.

 

[tombomb]

Yeah agree

My understanding is that the points weightings are based on average games played by different picks. If this is so, it doesn’t pick up the quality of those games (200 games from a 1st round pick will generally be more valuable than 200 games from a fourth round pick).

I’m not the biggest fan of champion data or whatever, but if you used that as the basis - total average champion data points over each pick’s career - I reckon you would get a better balance, with the top end picks being worth more than they are now.

An entry level employee at AFL House with a spreadsheet could resolve 95% of the fairness issues in 45 minutes.

That's not how they roll though.

 

[Jewelsbon]

An entry level employee at AFL House with a spreadsheet could resolve 95% of the fairness issues in 45 minutes.

That's not how they roll though.

 

[Callipygian]

My suggestion for bidding would be that a club can use a maximum of two picks to match the points

Interesting idea.

Yeah agree

My understanding is that the points weightings are based on average games played by different picks. If this is so, it doesn’t pick up the quality of those games (200 games from a 1st round pick will generally be more valuable than 200 games from a fourth round pick).

I’m not the biggest fan of champion data or whatever, but if you used that as the basis - total average champion data points over each pick’s career - I reckon you would get a better balance, with the top end picks being worth more than they are now.

I was about to make this same point i.e. the boffins from the AFL didn't just come up with this reviled curve out of nowhere. It was based on an analysis of something like games played by players taken at the various picks. So there was a firm empirical basis for the curve that everyone in this discussion has so far been ignoring, until you.

In a dazzling and sophisticated move, you have gone one step further and delved into a critique about why the number crunching that was done was insufficient. While your idea of evaluating the quality of the games played as well (as the number of games played) is more complex, I think it deserves consideration. I'm less willing to assume that the more complex analysis will lead to top end picks being worth more (although that seems probable). It's also possible that we just have a bias towards top end picks and they aren't quite as valuable as we imagine them to be.


Another reason that a high pick is worth more than multiple later picks is that while they may produce the same number of games played, multiple later picks take up more list spots. As a list manager you need list spots to continually sift through 'maybe' and project players. Having a relatively sure thing taking up one list spot is better than having that investment taking up more 'space'. [Feel like I haven't expressed that elegantly, but hopefully those who are interested will get my gist.]

 

[anotherletdown]

How much is Reid worth at the trade table? Undoubtedly a generational player and future Brownlow winner. Single handedly transforming that team.

Fans win burn the place down if he ever leaves

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

How much is Reid worth at the trade table? Undoubtedly a generational player and future Brownlow winner. Single handedly transforming that team.

Fans win burn the place down if he ever leaves

Let’s offer him a 22 year contract and see what happens. Apparently* a long lost great aunt has left him a Harbourside Manse at Point Piper, a massive joint at Palm Beachand the odd share or two.

 

[Wheresbuddy]

How much is Reid worth at the trade table? Undoubtedly a generational player and future Brownlow winner. Single handedly transforming that team.

Fans win burn the place down if he ever leaves

Had this same thought after watching the highlights. Prior to playing us, I would've said they would've considered Chad and Corey as a trade. Now it would be Chad and Logan........

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

Interesting idea.



I was about to make this same point i.e. the boffins from the AFL didn't just come up with this reviled curve out of nowhere. It was based on an analysis of something like games played by players taken at the various picks. So there was a firm empirical basis for the curve that everyone in this discussion has so far been ignoring, until you.

In a dazzling and sophisticated move, you have gone one step further and delved into a critique about why the number crunching that was done was insufficient. While your idea of evaluating the quality of the games played as well (as the number of games played) is more complex, I think it deserves consideration. I'm less willing to assume that the more complex analysis will lead to top end picks being worth more (although that seems probable). It's also possible that we just have a bias towards top end picks and they aren't quite as valuable as we imagine them to be.


Another reason that a high pick is worth more than multiple later picks is that while they may produce the same number of games played, multiple later picks take up more list spots. As a list manager you need list spots to continually sift through 'maybe' and project players. Having a relatively sure thing taking up one list spot is better than having that investment taking up more 'space'. [Feel like I haven't expressed that elegantly, but hopefully those who are interested will get my gist.]

You could definitely account for risk in the distribution, to reflect your point that higher picks generally have less variance than lower picks.

However, I think there is a simple and more exciting way to do the draft - replace the draft order with an auction where the currency is draft points rather than salary.

The last placed team gets allocated the most draft points so that you can still have equalisation, but everyone can bid for pick 1 and so forth. This way, the clubs get to determine the relative value of each pick. The clubs with father sons / academy players could have their bids on those players boosted by say 10%.

I reckon this would not only get rid of the silly trading shenanigans that go on today, it would also be more exciting to watch. And the strategies would be fascinating. Some clubs might go all in on one player and then take the scraps at the end, while others would be more measured.

The tensions would also be interesting if a club is deciding to let their father-son / academy prospect go to another team.

 

[momentbymoment]

How much is Reid worth at the trade table? Undoubtedly a generational player and future Brownlow winner. Single handedly transforming that team.

Fans win burn the place down if he ever leaves

Geelong will get him for a second rounder and a high paid executive position for his future wife.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Geelong will get him for a second rounder and a high paid executive position for his future wife. wives

No doubt a breeding barn will be built for them with dozens of father-sons/daughters.

 

[Callipygian]

You could definitely account for risk in the distribution, to reflect your point that higher picks generally have less variance than lower picks.

However, I think there is a simple and more exciting way to do the draft - replace the draft order with an auction where the currency is draft points rather than salary.

The last placed team gets allocated the most draft points so that you can still have equalisation, but everyone can bid for pick 1 and so forth. This way, the clubs get to determine the relative value of each pick. The clubs with father sons / academy players could have their bids on those players boosted by say 10%.

I reckon this would not only get rid of the silly trading shenanigans that go on today, it would also be more exciting to watch. And the strategies would be fascinating. Some clubs might go all in on one player and then take the scraps at the end, while others would be more measured.

The tensions would also be interesting if a club is deciding to let their father-son / academy prospect go to another team.

You continue to be by far the most interesting contributor to this discussion! (In case it is unclear, I am not taking the piss - I just worried re-reading my last post.)

I have heard an idea like this before. It's still a kind of mindblowing suggesting and super-interesting. I would love to hear it floated with recruiters. Especially someone like Chris Keane who is good at number crunching. The old school talent spotters might find it too radical but I shouldn't be too quick to stereotype. Is it a bit similar to the IPL style auctions, albeit with draft points rather than salary cap?

 

[the hypnotoad]

I have to remember that, I cop the same thing from my 7yo grandson when I say he plays soccer.

pffft, a few hours in the cellar and he won't be so sass-mouthed ... harder for kids to talk back through the sobbing

 

[dosser]

How much is Reid worth at the trade table? Undoubtedly a generational player and future Brownlow winner. Single handedly transforming that team.

Fans win burn the place down if he ever leaves

Nah, we can't trade him out. He's got another leg injury. Love your enthusiasm, though

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

pffft, a few hours in the cellar and he won't be so sass-mouthed ... harder for kids to talk back through the sobbing

Aye … cellars are for spuds and soccer players … the trapdoor to the space underneath the cellar is reserved for little soccer grandkids of terrifying Bloods Big Nans.

Soz Jewelsbon am certain your grandsons soccer inclination is his only fault and is but temporary..

 

[Cadsky]

No doubt a breeding barn will be built for them with dozens of father-sons/daughters.

2037 horrie. Can you hold on that long?

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

2037 horrie. Can you hold on that long?

Could be a stretch.

I am just willing to concede that