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List Mgmt. 2024 List Mismanagement and Trading

Should the AFC offer Taylor Walker a contract for 2025?


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shouldn't your rating categories reflect the % among those performing the same role? So Laird you have as elite because you're comparing his rating to defenders and forwards. That is a terminal flaw and renders your assessment worthless. Dawson ranks 18/159 (top 11%) midfielders and Laird 40th (top 25%). So neither are in the elite category in their role, but Dawson is close and expect to get there.
There are a few issues with the Stats Insider ranking system, but they do take into account positional differences through a focus on impact as well as stats:

Stats Insider's AFL player ratings are derived through a meticulous process that takes into account various factors and statistical metrics. Similar to our AFL predictions for every game, these ratings are not subjective opinions but are based on objective data and analysis. Multiple criteria are considered to ensure a fair and accurate representation of a player's performance. By canvassing AFL media votes, coaches' votes, and match reports, our models have a much stronger idea of players who played important roles in each individual game. However, these aren't the only inputs; we also use a custom, fantasy-like scoring system to split tiebreakers and sort the players who have received a mention elsewhere to accurately rank every player in the AFL

Positional expectations could create a different issue. Stats Insider lists Dawson as a general defender. For a general defender he gets a heap of possessions, clearances and inside 50's, which probably helps him get to his ranking of 7th of 670 players. I wouldn't agree that he's the 7th best player in the league, but I do believe that he is in the top 55 of the c.550 players who played a game or more in 2023. He also made the All Australian team this year, so excluding him from the top 55 players (I assume based on just stats from your example) wouldn't make sense either (noting also that Stats Insider has 214 midfielders listed, 180 of which are in the top 550 players).

Similarly, Pedlar is listed as a midfielder, and it could be his expected possession count (and other mid-realted expected stats) that have him ranked way too low (in my opinion) at 391.

Stats Insider also uses data from prior seasons, which can understate improving players and overstate declining players. This also means that they list more players than the AFL use to create their rating system (which I've tried to resolve by adding the "Poor" rating for players outside of the top 550, a pretty blunt tool).

But all players are rated under the same basis and the anomalies would largely be expected to be evened out once they are generalised to apply to teams (not individual players) and using the AFL's Elite, Above Av, Av and Below Av ratings (rather than being more detailed like top 10 players, next 10 etc).

This is a trade-off to the issue that you noted in an earlier post, in that overlaying the AFL ratings over the Stats Insider rankings doesn't distinguish between someone who falls just inside Above Average (like Crouch did, by the way) who isn't significantly better than the player who fell just under the bar (like Sloane did). Yet, I would have given Crouch and Sloane those ratings myself (scraping into Above Average for Crouch, Average for Sloane). It also feels right if you look up the AFL ratings assigned to their key stats on our players page of the AFC website.

That's a lot of words to say the system is flawed, but so is every system we could use, but it's likely to be a good guide if used at a general enough level (eg, where each AFL team rates for elite, aboave average average etc).

If there's a better system, then I'm happy to use it (so long as it doesn't take a heap more time). I just haven't found one.
 
According to the logic of this silly offseason Butts would've yielded a pick between 5-15! Surely you wouldn't want to snub your nose at that and they can ask for Murray all they want but they aint getting him.

If you are losing a key positioner, whilst contending, it is helpful if your window is only open for a bit longer to get experience back rather than getting a pick and going the draftee path.

No way we’d get anywhere near that for Butts.
 

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If you believe my conspiracy theory, clubs and players these days are more mature about player movements. If a player wants to move the coach would prefer to know than not and will do what they can to fix up the issue causing the want to move or if that cant be done then to facilitate the move. All they ask in return is that the players work with them and the club to an extent. I think Butts wanted to go back when he got the new contract, I think the club said, if you go uncontracted we'll be screwed by the recieving club, can you re-sign on with us and if you do that, we'll get you to your destination, but it may take a year or two. Would you be willing to do that? I think Butts agreed. Himmelberg was a similar situation.
Yeah nah

On SM-F926B using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
LOL

You make a ridiculous statement with absolutely zero information to back up your claim other than a fertile imagination,
Also, I don't know if you've been on bigfooty long, but ridiculous statements with absolutely zero information to back it up are par for the course.

Don't get me started on people with fertile imagination either. A 2 second shot of curtin from a funny angle on draft night shows him and his family are depressed about coming here and he's going to leave back to WA for sure.
 
Had a few Crows ask about Harry Barnett and having had a look at your list you seem pretty light on for rucks if ROB goes down. Is there consensus that he’d be a trade target for the Crows end of 2024? If so what does that look like?

Glad you didn’t get Oliver and I’d be surprised if Petty has a good season given the significance of his foot injury. Both a blessing in disguise IMO.
 
Doubt it, surely if we wanted a young developing ruck we'd have drafted one this year with so many decent options available. More likely to go after a "proven" AFL level ruck if we were to look. 20 year old 200+cm Forward/Ruck Toby Murray is going to play SANFL for the Crows this season so that would suggest we are looking at him as developing depth.

* Edit : The fact your mob recruited GWS journeyman Matthew Flynn suggests they don't see Harry playing too much AFL for some time yet?
From what I understand Crows would have taken Goad had North not been given their charity picks? I guess it comes down to list management strategy, you’d ideally want your ruckman peaking in 3-4 years when you’re challenging for a flag but you can’t have everything. Don’t know about Toby Murray but if he comes on having a 23-24 year old ruckman at the start of a flag window would be a good result for the Crows.

Other than B Williams we had no other ruckmen on the list apart from Barnett who clearly isn’t ready for a full game if Williams went down. Flynn was a great get free of draft capital which gives Barnett time to develop his craft in the 2s without getting monstered every week. He had some injury concerns last year so hopefully strings some solid games together in 2024. Very much in West Coast’s plans and rated highly but if a deal that worked for both clubs was put on the table I don’t think he’s untradable although it won’t be for peanuts.
 

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Why then would the WCE be interested in trading their only developing pure ruckman?

He's certainly worth no more than his original pick 23 on his 1st year and would need to have a breakout 2024 to be worth anything major depending on what you class as "peanuts" of course.

Callum Jamieson?

203cm Archer Reid and 200cm Coen Livingstone Forward/Rucks?
The interest has come from Crows fans, not from WCE looking to trade him but agree his value certainly hasn’t gone up. Jamo has some admirers but he’s still not doing preseason with the main group and would need to show a fair bit before this contract is up. When we acquired Flynn there was no guarantee we’d get A Reid (in fact it was very unlikely) and Livingstone is years and years away. We still needed a mature body ruckman regardless of who we drafted after Nic Nat retired a year early.

I think Crows and Eagles both have 2024 players/picks the other would like, will be an interesting watch over the next 12 months.
 
A few posters here recently were arguing Oliver’s issues were minimal and overblown. I argued otherwise and thought we were only hearing about the tip of the iceberg. Since then further reports including rocking up to a pre season camp in an unfit manner and being sent home after a day. Wondering if these other posters wil change their tune on him??..

For anyone still wanting this lad it’s worth spending 5 mins reading posts from around midday onwards yesterday.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/13-clayton-oliver-–-unprecedented-4-x-b-f-3-x-aa-2-x-aflca-winner-and-premiership-player.1118178/page-199

iF Dees want to get rid of him end of 2024, we do NOT want to touch him. Ie he will never be a Crows player and we may have dodged the ultimate bullet here.
 
A few posters here recently were arguing Oliver’s issues were minimal and overblown. I argued otherwise and thought we were only hearing about the tip of the iceberg. Since then further reports including rocking up to a pre season camp in an unfit manner and being sent home after a day. Wondering if these other posters wil change their tune on him??..

For anyone still wanting this lad it’s worth spending 5 mins reading posts from around midday onwards yesterday.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/13-clayton-oliver-–-unprecedented-4-x-b-f-3-x-aa-2-x-aflca-winner-and-premiership-player.1118178/page-199

iF Dees want to get rid of him end of 2024, we do NOT want to touch him. Ie he will never be a Crows player and we may have dodged the ultimate bullet here.
12 months is a long time
 
12 months is a long time
Mate it can be but as Kristof mentioned below there seems to be some very serious addiction issues. Plus the MANY things now reported in the media. Not sure any player in the last 10 years has had so many issues reported? And he is a Superstar of the game. It’s all very sad. May I ask if you read the last few pages of Oliver thread on Dees forum?

some first hand accounts off Dees board plus there are many other rumours


“I’m sorry if I’ve said too much pjfairbairn , as I’m usually very conservative on here.

But I can assure you that if you go to the Palace Hotel in Camberwell for the last 2 weeks or the next 2 weeks, you’ll see him playing in the pokies at 2am.

I’m a genuine supporter and wish to see one of my all time favourites succeed, but it’s clear that he hasn’t been able to turn things around after the club called him out publicly in the postseason. It’s not looking good.”



“Heard from a very good source that a senior exec within the club told him that the situation is pretty serious and that there is a good chance now that he may never play AFL football again. Make of that what you will but it’s really not looking good. Would personally be devastated if that’s the case and really hope Clarry can get his life back in order first and then get back to footy ASAP 🙏


IMG_5810.jpeg



Considering the training camp was in Lorne and that’s where this photo was taken, this isn’t great.
 
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Someone will roll the dice on him with Melbourne paying the bulk of his wage

Whether he can get through this period and come out the other side who knows
Not sure about that, do you really think MLB would pay 500K+ for 6 years? With salary cap increases likely to be involved in his base 1m contract that would see - even at only 50% Dees contribution - would see around 3.5-4m paid out by the Dees to a player not on their books. Can’t see that happening and its completely unprecedented at this quantum of $$ and years of contract.

In my view ASSUMiNG things stay as they are reportedly at now or even spiral further out of control (1) Dees try and sack him and void the contract for legal reasons (clearly Oliver not upholding his end of the bargain currently so whatever the legal technical clauses are here for non performance), (2) Oliver quits the game altogether, possibly for a negotiated payout (eg 1-2m) or (3) he does get traded but similar to Cats picking up that contracted GC player last year AND receiving a first round pick that Dees give Oliver and a first rounder to a club to take him. Perhaps they also contribute a small portion of salary (10-20%) but nothing like the bulk of his wage IMO.

but ideally (4) Oliver sorts his stuff out and comes out the other side as otherwise $ and footy may be the least of his problems…

DABM, would you really want the Crows taking him on if he is still like this in 10 months time? It would possibly be the biggest riskiest trade any club has ever taken on
 
Not sure about that, do you really think MLB would pay 500K+ for 6 years? With salary cap increases likely to be involved in his base 1m contract that would see - even at only 50% Dees contribution - would see around 3.5-4m paid out by the Dees to a player not on their books. Can’t see that happening and its completely unprecedented at this quantum of $$ and years of contract.

In my view ASSUMiNG things stay as they are reportedly at now or even spiral further out of control (1) Dees try and sack him and void the contract for legal reasons (clearly Oliver not upholding his end of the bargain currently so whatever the legal technical clauses are here for non performance), (2) Oliver quits the game altogether, possibly for a negotiated payout (eg 1-2m) or (3) he does get traded but similar to Cats picking up that contracted GC player last year AND receiving a first round pick that Dees give Oliver and a first rounder to a club to take him. Perhaps they also contribute a small portion of salary (10-20%) but nothing like the bulk of his wage IMO.

but ideally (4) Oliver sorts his stuff out and comes out the other side as otherwise $ and footy may be the least of his problems…

DABM, would you really want the Crows taking him on if he is still like this in 10 months time? It would possibly be the biggest riskiest trade any club has ever taken on
Usually significant trades are scoped out 12 months plus in advance (of course no one can speak to a contracted player, let alone agree on a contract 🙄).

Not only is the situation for Oliver in 12 months time completely unknown but there is the potential for major changes in our best 22. We might have a young midfield that is flying and really need a key defender or an outside mid to substantially improve our chances of contending. If Keane develops in the manner that I expect and Murray returns to his best by the end of the season, do we really need Petty?

I would prefer to go all in on Phillipou, McCluggage etc
 
Not sure about that, do you really think MLB would pay 500K+ for 6 years? With salary cap increases likely to be involved in his base 1m contract that would see - even at only 50% Dees contribution - would see around 3.5-4m paid out by the Dees to a player not on their books. Can’t see that happening and its completely unprecedented at this quantum of $$ and years of contract.

In my view ASSUMiNG things stay as they are reportedly at now or even spiral further out of control (1) Dees try and sack him and void the contract for legal reasons (clearly Oliver not upholding his end of the bargain currently so whatever the legal technical clauses are here for non performance), (2) Oliver quits the game altogether, possibly for a negotiated payout (eg 1-2m) or (3) he does get traded but similar to Cats picking up that contracted GC player last year AND receiving a first round pick that Dees give Oliver and a first rounder to a club to take him. Perhaps they also contribute a small portion of salary (10-20%) but nothing like the bulk of his wage IMO.

but ideally (4) Oliver sorts his stuff out and comes out the other side as otherwise $ and footy may be the least of his problems…

DABM, would you really want the Crows taking him on if he is still like this in 10 months time? It would possibly be the biggest riskiest trade any club has ever taken on
We took on a cooked Wayne Carey who had a history of off field incidents as well...
 
Usually significant trades are scoped out 12 months plus in advance (of course no one can speak to a contracted player, let alone agree on a contract 🙄).

Not only is the situation for Oliver in 12 months time completely unknown but there is the potential for major changes in our best 22. We might have a young midfield that is flying and really need a key defender or an outside mid to substantially improve our chances of contending. If Keane develops in the manner that I expect and Murray returns to his best by the end of the season, do we really need Petty?

I would prefer to go all in on Phillipou, McCluggage etc
some good points mate. firstly, agree Petty at large money (the reported 800k ish) is less of a need now we picked up Curtin unexpectedly. Cant see why Curtin isnt a much better KPP player than Petty - at both ends of the ground (and midfield!)

Re midfielders, I asked Silvers directly last year and he acknowledged its the clubs greatest need to bring in more elite mids. He also said they are hard to get but the 2 you mentioned would be amazing gets but I think almost zero chance of McCluggage (his agent already said on trade radio they were keen to get extension talks happening) and he is happy in Brissie in a very successful stable team that should be competing over coming years. Yes we could throw massive money at him (1.2m x 5) but still unlikely to get him and it then causes issues within our own existing players salary expectations.

Agree re Philippou - he is the obvious one especially for an assault on the flag from 2025 onwards We would probably need to give up 2 x firsts (with a 24 2nd rounder ideally coming back to help pay for Welsh) to get him though and offer big $ (750-800k+). But he seems the obvious one if trading and assumes he is worth it

Otherwise bundle up 2 x firsts and get one of the many elite mids in this years draft. We will have had a good look at Draper whilst training with us but probably not feasible to get a top 3/4 pick which is likely needed to obtain him. Ideally Welsh doesnt go before pick 10 either and my worry is he has a standout year playing for our seconds and goes higher than expected (say top 7).

Next years trading/drafting will be very interesting and I would be very surprised if we are still holding our 2025 first rounder by the end of it
 
Not sure about that, do you really think MLB would pay 500K+ for 6 years? With salary cap increases likely to be involved in his base 1m contract that would see - even at only 50% Dees contribution - would see around 3.5-4m paid out by the Dees to a player not on their books. Can’t see that happening and its completely unprecedented at this quantum of $$ and years of contract.

In my view ASSUMiNG things stay as they are reportedly at now or even spiral further out of control (1) Dees try and sack him and void the contract for legal reasons (clearly Oliver not upholding his end of the bargain currently so whatever the legal technical clauses are here for non performance), (2) Oliver quits the game altogether, possibly for a negotiated payout (eg 1-2m) or (3) he does get traded but similar to Cats picking up that contracted GC player last year AND receiving a first round pick that Dees give Oliver and a first rounder to a club to take him. Perhaps they also contribute a small portion of salary (10-20%) but nothing like the bulk of his wage IMO.

but ideally (4) Oliver sorts his stuff out and comes out the other side as otherwise $ and footy may be the least of his problems…

DABM, would you really want the Crows taking him on if he is still like this in 10 months time? It would possibly be the biggest riskiest trade any club has ever taken on

I think it depends whether Melbourne want to keep him or not

If Melbourne don't want him, then we shouldn't want him

If Melbourne desperately want to keep him, then we should be all in trying to get him
 
We took on a cooked Wayne Carey who had a history of off field incidents as well...
Yes we did but ….not sure what your point is? Are you saying you would take on Oliver and the massive inherent risk associated with this? You don’t think the game has evolved in the last 20 years where no club would be stupid enough to give up a pick 4 (which became pick 2) for a cooked 32 year old? Or that we as a club have learnt from various stupid historical mistakes?

Does our recent years drafting and trading in of elite players (Rankine/Dawson) for market value or well under market value not give you confidence that what we did 20 years ago is quite irrelevant to what we do now.
 
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