Autopsy 2024 Rd 8 Disappointing loss for Blues

Who played well for the Blues in Round 8 vs the Pies?


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It’s a hangover from the Teague years and possibly the type of team we have built, you fear as soon as we turn the ball over we won’t get it back and the opposition are a better than 50-50 chance to score.

Yes. We haven't been a quick side since we Armfield, Yarran, Betts and Garlett were running around together. We get burnt by any quick side with footskills.
 
getting port/Hinkley vibes about us…

Port vibes possibly. I wouldn't compare Voss to Hinkley though. Voss has given us a game plan that allows us to win if we buy in every game. 54 tackles to 86 suggests we did not buy in tonight.
 

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Top4 finals side starring Young/Concotta and Cowan ably assisted by Fantasia/Owies and Durdin with special guest appearance appearances in between injury layoffs from Williams and Cuningham

any more questions?

oh just one other side comment - Coleman medal winner and tallest KPF in the game decides to kick to an outnumber - gifting a turnover in the middle of the ground with opposition players already in position to run it - instead of booting the crap out of the ball to the goals square where his team mate and fellow Coleman medalist winner is waiting in a one on one - for the first time ever in the game.

Oh Carltons mids are too good for Collingwood hmmm Collingwood coach floods contests and strangles the effectiveness of Carlton mids with - wait for it ...wait...more numbers around teh contest! Carlton's response....yeah she'll be right mate...

LOLs all over the place in this game

oh oh oh wait for it - tempofoozball for Carlton means kicking teh ball slowly along teh boundary and waiting for teh opposition to set up behind the ball - ready for an easy rebound - rinse and repeat.


Oh she'll be right when XY and come back...yeah maybe and naaah maybe not - letting that little rooster kick that goal to win teh match - just topped it all off.

Good night.
 
Top4 finals side starring Young/Concotta and Cowan ably assisted by Fantasia/Owies and Durdin with special guest appearance appearances in between injury layoffs from Williams and Cuningham

any more questions?

oh just one other side comment - Coleman medal winner and tallest KPF in the game decides to kick to an outnumber - gifting a turnover in the middle of the ground with opposition players already in position to run it - instead of booting the crap out of the ball to the goals square where his team mate and fellow Coleman medalist winner is waiting in a one on one - for the first time ever in the game.

Oh Carltons mids are too good for Collingwood hmmm Collingwood coach floods contests and strangles the effectiveness of Carlton mids with - wait for it ...wait...more numbers around teh contest! Carlton's response....yeah she'll be right mate...

LOLs all over the place in this game

oh oh oh wait for it - tempofoozball for Carlton means kicking teh ball slowly along teh boundary and waiting for teh opposition to set up behind the ball - ready for an easy rebound - rinse and repeat.


Oh she'll be right when XY and come back...yeah maybe and naaah maybe not - letting that little rooster kick that goal to win teh match - just topped it all off.

Good night.

I wish all of our players would play a whole game with effort and intensity like Cincotta and Cowan.

Can't fault Owies tonight, but that's not a defence overall as he goes missing just as often.

We didn't deserve to be in the game tonight. They smacked us with their defensive intent and inside 50s. Weitering and Boyd saved us a heap tonight, and Cincotta blanketted Hill for most of the game.
 
1. If we had somehow got the win tonight, we would have stolen it..Pies were much better than us for most of the night.

2. I know we have some key players out but where is our pressure!? In our last 3 losses, the games have been very similar and teams have carved us up.

3. The way Sidebottow was free, then kicked it to Pendles who was also on his own and goaled sums up our night.

4. Who the * was on Noble? Did as he pleased most of the game.

5. Their pressure was relentless but any chance we lower the eyes and go for a contest that isn't a 3 on 1?

6. Kennedy should not have been sub and Kemp should have played.

7. Orazio needs to find some form in the 2s.

8. We're lucky they missed goals, the scoreboard definitely flattered us.
 
Yeah nah, they were the better side, we were lucky to be as close as we were.

Let's allow the hard data from AFL and Champion Data to paint a clearer picture

Third quarter frees

Carlton 9
Collingwood 1

Free Kick from Quarters 1, 2 and 4.

Carlton 13
Collingwood 20

Third quarter score

Carlton: 3.2.20 (5 scoring shots)
Collingwood 0.4.4 (4 scoring shots)

First Quarter, Second Quarter, Forth Quarter score

Carlton: 9.5.59
Collingwood: 12.9.71

Average scoring shots per quarter

Carlton: 4.67
Collingwood: 7

Scores Chain Source

Scores with frees in chain

Carlton: 5.3.33
Collingwood: 8.7.55

Scores with no free in chain

Carlton: 7.4.46
Collingwood: 4.6.30

==========

Conclusions:

* Massive difference in the way the game is called in quarters 1, 2 and 4 compared to quarter 3

* Carlton is consistent scoring shot wise regardless of free kick differential (despite the free kick discrepancy in the third quarter it's consistent with 1, 2, 4) - the umpires don't make us a better team.

* Collingwood's increases almost double in the quarters they have the free kick differential in their advantage

* Collingwood scored 64.7% of their score with a free kick in the chain compared to Carlton 41.77%

These numbers are strangely consistent with Collingwood's wins and losses since 2022 (within 5% of the standard deviation of all stats).
 
This.

At the start of the year, I actually disagreed with everyone's predictions and thought we would just miss finals, forcing Voss to realize that the gameplan and list balance has some big problems that need addressing.

I know we've got a big injury list but I'm still leaning towards that outcome being a strong possibility, although we have matched it closely with some of the best, so I hope I'm wrong.

We could definitely miss the finals, heaps of decent sides in the comp if we are a bit off.

With the injuries, we have Marchbank, Cuningham, Martin and Williams who have spent more time at the club unavailable than available. I think we can’t afford to keep carrying so many injury prone players, I’m also not convinced the way we play is sustainable for us to get repeatable results long term.

Nor am I convinced of Russell. I don’t think our coaching or fitness department are s**t, just we might need better if we want to get #17.

It’s going to be more evolution as opposed to revolution, most people would have been ok with us being 5-3 before the start of the season.

But no it wouldn’t surprise me if we missed the finals and people wanted to blow the club up, and heaps of media noise and opposition clubs ridiculing us etc.

I think with Cook we will hold our nerve regardless.
 
Best midfield? We would be lucky to have a top ten in the comp midfield.

Got pantsed yet again.


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You say that but we smashed Cats in the middle and GWS.

Tonight we were poor and less dynamic in there, Nick Daicos is a very special player and had an amazing game.
 
He's got that Pendlebury gift of always seemingly being able to find a way out of trouble. I was hoping one of our players would nail him cold HTB all night, but didn't happen. Just so slippery and appears to have 360 vision.
Nick will be one of the champions of the AFL by the end of his career, a bit scary to think that he's only a couple of years into it.
 
Yes. We haven't been a quick side since we Armfield, Yarran, Betts and Garlett were running around together. We get burnt by any quick side with footskills.

Not having Ollie hurt us, as we don’t have anyone else who can cover the ground like he does, pretty depressing how we miss a bloke who gets sub 10 touches on a wing.
 
All of our losses have been in high quality games, so I'm not going to get too worked up over tonight's game. We were beaten fair and square as Collingwood's pressure game overwhelmed us.

But for all the moaning this match, I also remember how we played against GWS, so this season ain't over yet.
 

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Port vibes possibly. I wouldn't compare Voss to Hinkley though. Voss has given us a game plan that allows us to win if we buy in every game. 54 tackles to 86 suggests we did not buy in tonight.
We had so much more ball in the back half - which partly explains the tackle numbers.
Unfortunately most times we went forward with any intent we turned it over or, at best, sent it to a contest. Not much clean ball.
 
Let's allow the hard data from AFL and Champion Data to paint a clearer picture

Third quarter frees

Carlton 9
Collingwood 1

Free Kick from Quarters 1, 2 and 4.

Carlton 13
Collingwood 20

Third quarter score

Carlton: 3.2.20 (5 scoring shots)
Collingwood 0.4.4 (4 scoring shots)

First Quarter, Second Quarter, Forth Quarter score

Carlton: 9.5.59
Collingwood: 12.9.71

Average scoring shots per quarter

Carlton: 4.67
Collingwood: 7

Scores Chain Source

Scores with frees in chain

Carlton: 5.3.33
Collingwood: 8.7.55

Scores with no free in chain

Carlton: 7.4.46
Collingwood: 4.6.30

==========

Conclusions:

* Massive difference in the way the game is called in quarters 1, 2 and 4 compared to quarter 3

* Carlton is consistent scoring shot wise regardless of free kick differential (despite the free kick discrepancy in the third quarter it's consistent with 1, 2, 4) - the umpires don't make us a better team.

* Collingwood's increases almost double in the quarters they have the free kick differential in their advantage

* Collingwood scored 64.7% of their score with a free kick in the chain compared to Carlton 41.77%

These numbers are strangely consistent with Collingwood's wins and losses since 2022 (within 5% of the standard deviation of all stats).

Sides usually get more free kicks when they are first to the ball.
 
People hate on Nick just cos he’s a pies player and media jizz over him but he is one hell of a player.
We'd have him in a heartbeat I'm pretty sure.
 
Okay I’m gonna say it. That was a cracking game! I hate the Pies but they played us like a fiddle. Just pressured us all night into making mistakes. Crippa outplayed by Pendles… again. Sidebottoms bald head just making an appearance during critical moments. F*ing Hoskin Elliot looking like Tony Modra. Walsh had composure for only one moment tonight. Daicos just farting on us at the end. It was pure filth. We have to smash them the next time we play them. Absolutely gutted.
 
All of our losses have been in high quality games, so I'm not going to get too worked up over tonight's game. We were beaten fair and square as Collingwood's pressure game overwhelmed us.

But for all the moaning this match, I also remember how we played against GWS, so this season ain't over yet.

True but top 4 is becoming increasingly hard and we all know it’s required to be a realistic chance. You need to more often than not beat the top teams to be in the hunt. We are 1-2 so far with a loss against a thereabouts team also. Voss talked preseason about the need to be more consistent for this very reason. So far on evidence we just aren’t polished enough to be consistently the best. Still early days and can for sure be turned around but it’s slipping away.
 
True but top 4 is becoming increasingly hard and we all know it’s required to be a realistic chance. You need to more often than not beat the top teams to be in the hunt. We are 1-2 so far with a loss against a thereabouts team also. Voss talked preseason about the need to be more consistent for this very reason. So far on evidence we just aren’t polished enough to be consistently the best. Still early days and can for sure be turned around but it’s slipping away.

We haven’t outright sucked in any game, but we haven’t been very good in any game either. We have drifted in and out of games basically all season so far.
 
Just a very disappointing defeat. We had an opportunity to make a statement of intent here but it just wasn't availed of.

As disappointing as it is, i'm not going to call the year a bust just yet though.

Hopefully we see a strong response against both the Demons and the Swans.

Get two wins there and the situation looks a lot better. We're in the middle of a tough five game run of fixtures.

Coming out of it with at least three wins would still be a decent enough feat, considering the amount of playing personnel unavailable.
 
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Port vibes possibly. I wouldn't compare Voss to Hinkley though. Voss has given us a game plan that allows us to win if we buy in every game. 54 tackles to 86 suggests we did not buy in tonight.
Respectfully I analysed the tackles stat differently - it was the lack of speed, not lack of attitude, that caused the discrepancy. Speed is the currency in the modern AFL.
 
Had some time to digest on the way home... here's my thoughts.

Voss swung the axe but he hit the wrong tree... I don't blame him for hitting the wrong tree because it wasn't bearing much fruit, but there was another tree that was worse off...

Lewis Young should not have kept his spot. He just doesn't do enough defensively, he panics under pressure and whenever he gets the ball he takes a million years before eventually just bombing it long. Can't trust him in a 1v1 wrestle either.

Durdin, another that shouldn't have kept his spot (and no it's not just because missed from 30m out directly in front last week). Another game, another with pretty much zero impact. Zero forward 50 ground ball gets, zero goals, zero goal assists, zero tackles (but hey, let's release a vid of his tackling pressure leading up to the game lol).

Fantasia, I don't know how long we're going to keep hoping he steps up in a game, but that time has run out now. Another poor performance, it's just not working. He needs to go back to the 2's and earn a call up. You just can't carry blokes who do nothing all game and then fail at the one key job they've got - nailing set shots. He and Durdin have done that in back to back weeks now. Not good enough.

Owies at least redeemed himself and Cats game was his worst for the season, apart from that he was at the very least hitting the scoreboard on a regular basis.

Kennedy, I get why he was sub, due to his versatility and thinking that Pies being a fast team on spread would expose him, but in hindsight, it just wasn't the right move. He's a starting 22 player.

Hewett I thought ducked his head a bit at times but the most disappointing thing was how long he was taking to dispose of the ball... got closed down too many times. Needed to have better awareness than that.

Cunners was pretty good. Three goal assists, 5 ground ball gets, two f50 tackles and 13 pressure acts, 14 disposals going at almost 80% efficiency.

Williams defensively had a couple of great efforts but some poor ones to go with it. I still think the better move would have been to try him forward, couldn't have been worse than Fantasia or Durdin.

Cerra first game back was subpar. He needs a block of games to find form.

Harry I though played a great game. Unfortunate that his late decision kicking i50 was really poor but doesn't deserve to be crucified over it, he played very well.

Charlie looks slow to me. Been noticing it for a while, I think he's definitely carrying something. Weitering too for that matter.

Overall, the bake didn't have the intended affect... rather it looks like its made them play more within themselves. Too many players not willing to take the game on, too many players holding play up and stalling before bombing it long to unfavourable spots. Not enough hunger and desire. They just played like they were afraid of making mistakes, especially when the Pies brought the pressure we fell to pieces.

Some really telling stats we lost:

Tackles: 54 - 88
f50 Tackles: 9 - 22
Clearances: 40 - 44
Centre Clearances: 11 - 12
i50: 38 - 64
Disposals: 365 - 323
 
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So my question, when Newman had a free or mark at half back in the last quarter, was how does Voss WANT us to move the ball? What does Carlton footy look like if it’s working? Credit Pies for pressure, sure, but I don’t get how we are trying to move it. It really seems that if Charlie or Harry don’t take a contested mark on the wing, we can’t progress the ball.
Its a really good question. From the ground, thought Collingwood's press was the difference. Was almost a carbon copy of the round 10 game last year. They block all the outlets in an arc around the player, refusing to give us short pass. Forcing us down the line where theyll back Moore to bring it ground, and beat us on the rebound.

I couldn't work out how we get through. They let Young get the ball because he's going to slow down and invariably kick it long. No idea why he refuses to handball to a runner. With Williams subbed off and no Saad and McGovern, we lacked the speed and penetration to get the ball into the open.

If our ground ball and stoppage game is good, we can grind our way down the ground and control territory. If we had Saad and McGovern, we can attempt to find the open side and break over the top. With neither of those, we had no tricks and were frustrating in our predictability.
 
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