List Mgmt. 2024 Trade & List Management Thread - Part 3

[giantroo]

Spoiler: 2024 Draft Picks

 

[Shinboner1]

Ralph speculating or has actual knowledge?

 

[DocSholl]

Connors is just using Ralph as a mouthpiece, take it with a grain of salt

 

[My Left Foote]

Given what West Coast just got for 3, I think #6 and #14 would be the best we could hope for.

I think we'd bite their hand off for 6 & 10, the only reason I think we could have the leverage for a deal like that is Richmond really wanting FOS & Lalor and Carlton now being in a position to take FOS at #3, as is rumored why they have wanted to move up.

2 for 6 and 10 OR 2 and 25 for 6, 14 and 23.

 

[Makeshift Park]

Connors is just using Ralph as a mouthpiece, take it with a grain of salt

Ha, I thought it might be us using him as a mouthpiece to say its now or never.

 

[Merlin007]

Connors is just using Ralph as a mouthpiece, take it with a grain of salt

either that, or our deadline has passed and Houston hasn't nominated

 

[Sphynx]

2 for 6 and 10 OR 2 and 25 for 6, 14 and 23.

The third option being 6 & 14 for 2 & 25, which is possibly the most likely scenario, which is approaching reaming territory.

Whatever deal, we need to come out of it with a net positive amount of picks, otherwise it's pointless.

We need more picks in the top 25, not just adjusted position.

 

[The Nostradamus]

2 for 6 and 10 OR 2 and 25 for 6, 14 and 23.

this looks familiar

 

[Roosurgence]

either that, or our deadline has passed and Houston hasn't nominated

Maybe we are playing cat and mouse and not wanting to come off too desperate now that Collingwood are struggling to do a deal and clearly Carlton are going to the draft?

Reality says a deal will get done to Collingwood late and it will be most likely very similar to the deal Port knocked back.

I just can’t see him returning back to Port after all of this effort to get out.

 

[verypoorboy]

The fact that we’re still interested in GC’s pick 13 really concerns me. Fear we’re on the verge of doing something stupid and joining the Eagles as the laughing stock of this trade period

 

[Merlin007]

I'd be keen to follow the Hawks/Saints lead and trade out 25 to send a message to the Bulldogs (and more distantly, Sydney) that it's not in the mix for Daniel (and Parker)

 

[Colby Cheer Squad]

This trade period has singlehandedly ruined the future of the club..

Current completed trades; Jack Darling for Pick 67

There's an art to hyperbole but I don't believe you've quite mastered it.

 

[Flawed Genius]

You are making a similar false assumption as what some of our recruiters did commit in the Serong draft.

With respect you're making the same assumption but in reverse. I know drafts are supposed to get clearer as kids develop and mature and play against men and in rep comps and their talent becomes more obvious, but there's no guarantee it's better than this year. Or good at all. Neither of us can be right until much further down the track

Was viewed as a weak draft 12 months out compared to what was viewed as a really strong draft a year later. So we traded out of it and into 2020 (Didn't/Couldn't forsee Covid obviously...)

It's also what we did with the Polec pick. 'We don't need another R1 pick, because we already have Thomas coming.' (Not what you said, but was the reasoning at the time).

I'm not here to defend the decisions of an administration that was clearly at its nadir and flailing around as an organization during that period 19/20. COVID notwithstanding we made some really fundamental errors in list composition and management and player identification for whatever reason. However my point is that I think it's a far better time now to push to trade that F1, when we have established the young core of Sheezel Wardlaw McKercher Duursma Powell Curtis Goater Comben Archer. It's a far better time to do it now than in 2018 when our best young talent was like. McKay Turner and Tom Murphy. But again hindsight is 20/20

Anyone saying with complete conviction that next years draft is weak, or completely compromised is talking shit. Yes there are a number of top prospects in acadamies at the moment.

Taking the "talking shit" aspect out of it, you can't say with any level of certainty that it's going to be strong or better than this draft. Fact is that it is compromised as players like Uwland are not available to the wider pool

Last year was declared an incredibly weak draft the year prior. Didn't end that way. The top 10 of last years draft was declared as incredibly strong compared to the forecasted one in 2024. Wrong again.

Strengthens my argument. Nobody knows what a draft looks like 12 months out. Ludowyke might do an ACL and fall off the planet. Sharp might be a mummy's boy and not want to leave SA. We have the opportunity to cut through that uncertainty (to gamble, I acknowledge) and bring in a super player that has a few benefits - you say to Sheezel and Hardeman and Goater, we think so highly of you that we are going to spend capital to get this resource and use it to make you better, and when Houston is ready to retire and you are at your prime or entering it, you'll have all this extra knowledge to use.

To say nothing of the idea that a generally accepted elite AFL footballer with two AA blazers choosing to play with us (or being forced to) and what that says about the club. I think regardless of whether you think it will lead to an avalanche of players choosing to join in future years, it certainly doesnt have a detrimental effect in any way shape or form, and doesn't harm the idea of us as a destination organisation in any way

 

[Devski]

100% this is someone trying to spin the public narrative in their favour.

My guess is Connors

 

[My Left Foote]

this looks familiar

I learn from the best.

 

[Only Forwards]

Agree, but its an option available, and an example that demonstrates how its a fallacy to suggest we definitely won't have space for them in the best 23 if Houston was traded in.

It seems to me that a lot of these debates are proxies for two distinct camps around here.

One wants us to become immediately competitive, sees that as a strategic priority in itself, and is prepared to use draft capital to make that happen.

The other wants to retain a draft-heavy focus at all costs because that's what we set out to do back in 2017 and they think any substantial deviation from that risks throwing the project further off-course.

There's obviously pros and cons for either, but clearly I'm in the former camp and Houston helps with that mission.

This is a pretty good take IMO.

I am more in camp 2 with an addendum of, I think that changing a strategy in the middle of its execution exposes us to more risk than sticking to it.

For me there are multiple points at which the Houston stuff falls down for me, it starts with, we are the break glass in case of emergency option. Which is a shithouse place, but then we are needing to pay a premium in terms of $$ and draft capital to even be in that position. All of that is wrapped up in the fact we also have to deal with Port who historically we have been poor traders with. I didn't like the idea at the start and the other stuff around it has just made it worse from my point of view. All for a bloke who is not our biggest need right now.

 

[Roodus]

Ralph speculating or has actual knowledge?

Yeah, take with a grain of salt. As Morris proved last night, there's a lot of BS going around.

 

[JGreezy]

The fact that we’re still interested in GC’s pick 13 really concerns me. Fear we’re on the verge of doing something stupid and joining the Eagles as the laughing stock of this trade period

The Eagles got 12, 14 and Owies for pick 3.
Our F1 for 13 could end up as pick 3 for less than half of the value

 

[giantroo]

 

[cardje]

Have gone from thinking Brady is playing with playdough while everyone else plays chess, to having a feeling that something is potentially cooking. Walk away from Houston, screw Port and make them take unders from Pies. Get pick swapping.

 

[spurs]

So we won't deal with the GoDees for pick swaps.

 

[Merlin007]

The Eagles got 12, 14 and Owies for pick 3.
Our F1 for 13 could end up as pick 3 for less than half of the value

I get the argument, incl the high price WC have paid - on the other hand they will have Baker and Owies on field in 2025, whereas our F1 only becomes of use in 2026.

The question is whether we want to bring improvement forward a year

 

[verypoorboy]

I get the argument, incl the high price WC have paid - on the other hand they will have Baker and Owies on field in 2025, whereas our F1 only becomes of use in 2026.

The question is whether we want to bring improvement forward a year

No, well not for 30-40% of what it’s worth.

 

[The Nostradamus]

So we won't deal with the GoDees for pick swaps.

it was always going to only be richmond to allow them the 2 best kids in the draft and the amount of first rounders they have to play with soon

 

[buttox]

I'd like to get Parker locked away asap.
We need him either way whatever happens with Houston.
Daniel can wait for that outcome.
If we miss on Daniel and Houston it probably means we get more on draft night for any splits we would like.
That's a good thing

 

[Rooboys Rool]

There’s a lot of posters in this thread and the main thread saying that pick 44 will move in a lot due to bids, but that’s unlikely to happen.

I think most might be forgetting that when a F/S or academy player is bid on, them being inserted into the draft then pushes all picks back a spot. So, if two picks are used to match a bid then the later picks only move up by one spot.

Added to that, the need to match list spots to draft picks only applies prior to the start of the draft. Once the draft starts, that rule goes and we typically see clubs that need to match bids then trade their picks in the 20s and 30s for more later picks.

That’s not to mention the fact that F/S and academy players often seem to go later in the draft than anticipated, requiring clubs to use less points to match.

What has actually happened in the past is picks in the 30s get pushed back, picks in the 40s stay about the same, picks in the 50s come in a bit and picks after that come in a lot.

I hope we keep pick 44 and only hand over pick 62 for Parker, but that pick 44 will still end up in the 40s - not the 30s.

Just posting this in this thread too. Further to the above, the mooted pick 25 for Daniel and pick 48 trade is as sh!t as it looks. That pick 48 would come in only a few spots at the most - will be nowhere near the 30s.