List Mgmt. 2024 Trade & List Management Thread - Part 3

[giantroo]

Spoiler: 2024 Draft Picks

 

[Midas]

There’s no way we’re getting 10 and 11 for next year’s first.

I’m putting that on record and OMG would I love to be wrong.

 

[The Nostradamus]

There’s no way we’re getting 10 and 11 for next year’s first.

I’m putting that on record and OMG would I love to be wrong.

Richmond likely think we finish bottom 4 again so that would be fair

 

[King Corey]

Lot of undervaluing of our F1 on here imo.

We've held a top 10 pick for 8 years in a row. Top 2 pick 5 years in a row.

We can should value it at a top 5 pick valuation, top 8 at worst.

Obviously combos of picks may equate to this, ie 10 + 11 etc.

 

[Lomas]

Lot of undervaluing of our F1 on here imo.

We've held a top 10 pick for 8 years in a row. Top 2 pick 5 years in a row.

We can should value it at a top 5 pick valuation, top 8 at worst.

Obviously combos of picks may equate to this, ie 10 + 11 etc.

It is also surprising that people have the approach ‘this draft is deep, so top picks more valuable this year’. If the draft isn’t as deep next year, and there is strong top end talent, why wouldn’t you want to get a high pick next year in a compromised draft?

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Future 1st for picks 10 and 11 is in play I'm hearing.

Richmond are hesitant to give up pick 6 in this year's draft which is understandable.

Probably close to fair value. Will give them 2 consecutive years where they are likely to have 2 picks inside the top 6-8.

If that is the case, I think Richmond must be looking to bundle up their later first round picks for additional picks further up the list as well.

As much as Richmond fans think it's unlikely, I can't see them taking 7-8 picks this year alone. They'd be better off have 4-5 this year and 4/5 early picks next year.

 

[year of the roo]

It is also surprising that people have the approach ‘this draft is deep, so top picks more valuable this year’. If the draft isn’t as deep next year, and there is strong top end talent, why wouldn’t you want to get a high pick next year in a compromised draft?

The mistake people are making is they're falling in love with names (this draft) whereas in comparison to next year's draft they are just numbers at this stage. F1 is easy to dismiss against the bird in the hand of this draft, until your F1 has a name, a profile, some stats, a youtube clip or 10 and some testing results. Its a nuffy mistake, and hopefully one our club is not going to make again.

 

[Pres]

The mistake people are making is they're falling in love with names (this draft) whereas in comparison to next year's draft they are just numbers at this stage. F1 is easy to dismiss against the bird in the hand of this draft, until your F1 has a name, a profile, some stats, a youtube clip or 10 and some testing results. Its a nuffy mistake, and hopefully one our club is not going to make again.

Yep agree. It's hard for some people to get emotionally invested in the unknown.

 

[Heaps of fun]

I feel like draft forecasting a year out is pretty hit and miss. This draft looked weak until it started getting talked up bigly a few months ago and as soon as the trades started this year next year started to get talked down. Basically all that happened in that time was TAC finals, a futures game and combine testing for this year. Expect the evaluation to be completely different again in six months time once the hype machine kicks into gear for 2025's crop.

 

[Harvey Manfrenjensenden]

I've been working on a formula for those proposing pick trades.

Based on the available data I can accurately predict the following:

If we are trading out picks they are worth approximately 12% more.

If we are trading a pick in they are worth approximately 12% less.

If we are trading picks to a club that a poster doesn't like our pick value increases by approximately 7%.

If we are trading in picks from a club that a poster doesn't like the pick value decreases by approximately 7%.

Add 5% if the poster fancies themselves as a "draft watcher"

Add 2% if the poster has had a few beers.

Add 4% if Brady has done something the poster feels is stupid over the past 72 hours. Decrease it by .25% every week after that for the following 3 weeks. Increase it by 0.50% every week until draft night if the poster holds grudges.

If your farming for likes add one of the following caveats:
"but Brady will probably give (insert really high pick) and only get back (insert really low pick)"
"CCJ (insert something negative)"
"(insert something negative) CCJ"

Using the words "incompetent" or "sack" when referring to Brady is very popular.

The words "overs" and "unders" will be used in response to any trade proposed in which North Melbourne do not gain a significant advantage.

The word realistic when used in reference to any trade scenario often has no basis in reality.

Good luck!

 

[The Filth Wizard]

The mistake people are making is they're falling in love with names (this draft) whereas in comparison to next year's draft they are just numbers at this stage. F1 is easy to dismiss against the bird in the hand of this draft, until your F1 has a name, a profile, some stats, a youtube clip or 10 and some testing results. Its a nuffy mistake, and hopefully one our club is not going to make again.

I'm not sure it's "people"... the club has been trying to shop the F1 since the off season kicked off and are still doing it now. They know what they are playing with even if most people don't.

 

[The Nostradamus]

BRISBANE has farewelled defender Jaxon Prior, while mid-season draftee Darcy Craven and defender Darragh Joyce

41

Darragh Joyce

Age

28

Ht

195cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.4

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

4.6

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.4

3star

MG

207.6

3star

No current season stats available

D

11.4

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

4.6

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.4

4star

MG

207.6

4star

have been delisted but the Lions have vowed to re-select them through the rookie draft.

 

[LB2Snake]

I'm not sure it's "people"... the club has been trying to shop the F1 since the off season kicked off and are still doing it now. They know what they are playing with even if most people don't.

Yep and all the talk of us giving up our F1 for 13 probably required them to be swapping their F1 as well, or at least more involved you'd think.

 

[DuckYeah]

That's ambitious.

I'd be fairly confident we will beat Richmond & West Coast.

Not sure about the rest. We have immediate improvement with Parker, Caleb & Logue, but we just have too many other substandard guys who we will have to play, but will hold us back.

I'm still thinking 15-16th, but more competitive. The big improvement in 2026.

If we build as a team, play as a team with pressure and intensity that we saw post bye, we can and will 100% knock those teams off

 

[rickety]

Like little Johnny Howard telling Costello he was taking over from him after 2 elections

I actually sent Costello a box of tissues after watching his teary press conference when JH decided to keep the keys to the Lodge. Funny as.

 

[DunderHead]

The mistake people are making is they're falling in love with names (this draft) whereas in comparison to next year's draft they are just numbers at this stage. F1 is easy to dismiss against the bird in the hand of this draft, until your F1 has a name, a profile, some stats, a youtube clip or 10 and some testing results. Its a nuffy mistake, and hopefully one our club is not going to make again.

I think because we still have an uneven list righting that an earlier stage has benefits. Also, if we are going to take talls then do it now so they can get into our system and develop.

Agree that the cost may not be worth it but reckon that’s the thought process for moving next years pick into this year minus some value.

 

[DuckYeah]

I think because we still have an uneven list righting that an earlier stage has benefits. Also, if we are going to take talls then do it now so they can get into our system and develop.

Agree that the cost may not be worth it but reckon that’s the thought process for moving next years pick into this year minus some value.

Theres only 1 tall worth taking and thats the GTrain

 

[The Nostradamus]

Tigers have delisted Cumberland and Matt coulthard

 

[koshari]

The mistake people are making is they're falling in love with names (this draft) whereas in comparison to next year's draft they are just numbers at this stage. F1 is easy to dismiss against the bird in the hand of this draft, until your F1 has a name, a profile, some stats, a youtube clip or 10 and some testing results. Its a nuffy mistake, and hopefully one our club is not going to make again.

plus your continually trading in deficit. we have been crap for 7 years and yet we go into a draft with 2 picks!

 

[zoomba23]

Tigers have delisted Cumberland and Matt coulthard

Cumberland must be the laziest campaigner ever. Talented lad, delisted from the worst list in the comp

 

[Scottroo]

Cumberland has all the traits to become a very good player. Must be terribly lazy

 

[Ichiro #51]

I think, in part, that because of our recent priority picks plus the compensation for Magoo plus trading out Sooky pants, people have gotten used to having bunches of picks at various stages of the draft. So to now have only 2 and 62, it seems like we have to get more picks.

I reckon we do a deal if it’s good and it suits us - otherwise don’t panic and focus on nailing the picks we do have.

 

[shimaburnsgrieg]

Richmond likely think we finish bottom 4 again so that would be fair

And if we are playing a home game in Perth against West Coast that increases the likelihood of us finishing below West Coast next year. WC have lost Barrass but have picked 3 first 18 players.

 

[Midas]

I'm not sure it's "people"... the club has been trying to shop the F1 since the off season kicked off and are still doing it now. They know what they are playing with even if most people don't.

Coupled with a refusal to ask for any assistance after our historically poor output continues, one thinks there is a message been sent to this Group - it’s time.

 

[Devington]

I think, in part, that because of our recent priority picks plus the compensation for Magoo plus trading out Sooky pants, people have gotten used to having bunches of picks at various stages of the draft. So to now have only 2 and 62, it seems like we have to get more picks.

I reckon we do a deal if it’s good and it suits us - otherwise don’t panic and focus on nailing the picks we do have.

I agree, but I would also like to reserve the right to occasionally have a sook about all the highest end players we didn't have access to (and the one we traded away...) while bottom 2 for half a decade.

 

[giantroo]