Game Day 2024 Trade Period - Lian Yu - that liminal space between trade and draft.

[Wray27]

Hey I don't drivel!

I did say most!

 

[Joao]

I think the promise of ALL the draft picks might have unhinged some of the Tigers fans.

It's genuinely hilarious.

 

[Wee Jessies]

I know every year they talk about strong drafts but the volume this year is deafening. This is backed up by how well so many 18 yo kids performed when exposed to senior football this year.

If Carlton is suggesting that the opportunity cost of the kid they miss out on at 12 is not worth it to get a dual All Australian in Dan Houston

9

Dan Houston

Age

28

Ht

186cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.2

5star

K

11.8

4star

HB

6.4

4star

M

4.9

5star

T

3.0

5star

MG

289.2

4star

D

17.6

4star

K

11.6

4star

HB

6.0

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.4

4star

MG

319.9

5star

D

16.6

4star

K

12.4

5star

HB

4.2

4star

M

7.0

5star

T

2.6

4star

MG

279.8

5star

then that should tell you something about the value of those two top picks we hold. I genuinely believe you can almost half the number of each pick in this draft to make it comparable to an average year.

For instance Elijah Hewitt who went at 14 is very comparable if not behind the quality of kids who will be available at 30 this year. In a normal year I don't think the three best tall forwards in the draft are attainable around pick 20 etc.

Long story short, in 2022 I happily pay 10 and 11 for Bolton and change but not this year based on how many clubs are trying to get multiple picks. Equally Richmond should be very excited about the kids they could get with 10 and 18 eg Trainer, Travaglia and Shanahan to round out the gun mids they will get with the earlier picks.

 

[DocT]

Garlick said Richmond can say a flat out no deal for Bolton, Walls points out he’s contracted, in the room with Richmond I hope they’re pointing out that Bolton will be a nightmare for them if they force him to stay.

Bolton needs inspiration to play well. he checks out easily. If he's forced to stay he will have a down year and his trade value will be lower than 10/18 come 2025. I think Walls will be saying 'We both know this', not offering it as conjecture.

 

[arsesmart]

They’re going to lose Baker, Graham, Rioli and a bunch that have retired. They’re not keeping Bolton just because.

Obviously many moving parts for Richmond. Their list management have an ideal scenario and what they grudgingly accept and then a walk away point.

It is interesting their overall gamelan for the trade/draft period. The percentages of scorched earth approach, then across the gamut to leaving enough established talent to shelter the youth from the storms.

 

[Wee Jessies]

I have decided that it would it be rude and insensitive to the Schultz family to re-gift the pick that Collingwood gave us for him and that we therefore are not in a position to trade that pick.

 

[Alfonz]

On that note is there anything stopping a club from pulling a contract like that baseballer who's gonna get paid most of his contract in 10 years time?

Obviously salary cap is an issue but what's to stop a club giving a player a 15-20 year contract and paying them minum salary for 10 years when they expect to contend then a few mil a year for 5 and placing them on the inactive list with knee OA or something every player in the sport would have?

Baseball doesn't have a salary cap and has rules that allowed deferred payments after a player has retired. Would never fly in the AFL. The contract for that baseballer is crazy. He is currently 30, getting 2 million per year until he is 40, then 68 million per year until he is 50.

 

[Joao]

I know every year they talk about strong drafts but the volume this year is deafening. This is backed up by how well so many 18 yo kids performed when exposed to senior football this year.

If Carlton is suggesting that the opportunity cost of the kid they miss out on at 12 is not worth it to get a dual All Australian in Dan Houston then that should tell you something about the value of those two top picks we hold. I genuinely believe you can almost half the number of each pick in this draft to make it comparable to an average year.

For instance Elijah Hewitt who went at 14 is very comparable if not behind the quality of kids who will be available at 30 this year. In a normal year I don't think the three best tall forwards in the draft are attainable around pick 20 etc.

Long story short, in 2022 I happily pay 10 and 11 for Bolton and change but not this year based on how many clubs are trying to get mutliple picks. Equally Richmond should be very excited about the kids they could get with 10 and 18 eg Trainer, Travaglia and Shanahan to round out the gun mids they will get with the earlier picks.

It's great for negotiations how much other list managers are talking up the draft, especially in that range.

 

[ritz]

The longer this Bolton trade goes on, the more it says about how Walls can play hardball. In the past, he's taken unders at the trade table. 10 and 11 would have this deal done in the first hour. I'm pretty keen to see this one drag out a bit longer

Sent from my SM-S916B using Tapatalk

 

[malpaso]

The longer this Bolton trade goes on, the more it says about how Walls can play hardball. In the past, he's taken unders at the trade table. 10 and 11 would have this deal done in the first hour. I'm pretty keen to see this one drag out a bit longer

Sent from my SM-S916B using Tapatalk

Yeah and tea leaves can be read...

 

[Joao]

I'd love to spend 1 trade period at an active club to see how they stretch swapping a few picks and players around into a 10 bonanza.

 

[Paracleet]

Hahaha Walls is fat

Give it a rest team.

 

[s_wd6]

Hahaha Walls is fat

Give it a rest team.

It’s not like there’s any other news to keep this thread going

 

[arsesmart]

Or.... Walls is waylaid going back-to-back mornings smashing the breakfast buffet.

On a Tuesday? The buffet gets a bit stale beyond 9am. Although he might get a good buffet at home.

 

[Paracleet]

It’s not like there’s any other news to keep this thread going

We could weave in old board references to have a laugh and have bonus exclusion of noobs.


8% or less or GTFO Walls..

 

[Purple Suit]

Bolton needs inspiration to play well. he checks out easily. If he's forced to stay he will have a down year and his trade value will be lower than 10/18 come 2025. I think Walls will be saying 'We both know this', not offering it as conjecture.

It’s not a one way street though. We’ve got a coach on a 1 year deal who traded into this year and it cost the team.

If we do it again to get a better deal, it might cost us a legitimate shot at a flag in 25.

 

[ilikepotatoes]

Baseball doesn't have a salary cap and has rules that allowed deferred payments after a player has retired. Would never fly in the AFL. The contract for that baseballer is crazy. He is currently 30, getting 2 million per year until he is 40, then 68 million per year until he is 50.

If there wasn't a need for the AFL to tick the contract off as mentioned by someone else prior I could definitely see it happening.The cap is always going up - but it'll never be to the extent of that baseballer. But let's say we sign Bolton to a 15 year contract and he's on 200k for the first 5 and 1 mil a year for the next 10.

15 years ago the cap was around 8 million, now it's 17.7 million. If it continues like that ~ 1 million dollar per year by the end of the contract will be around a 450-500k deal in current terms.

If that gives us salary to recruit in Warner and Pickett I don't see why a club wouldn't at least consider it if they were allowed too.

 

[ubiquitous226]

I know every year they talk about strong drafts but the volume this year is deafening. This is backed up by how well so many 18 yo kids performed when exposed to senior football this year.

If Carlton is suggesting that the opportunity cost of the kid they miss out on at 12 is not worth it to get a dual All Australian in Dan Houston then that should tell you something about the value of those two top picks we hold. I genuinely believe you can almost half the number of each pick in this draft to make it comparable to an average year.

For instance Elijah Hewitt who went at 14 is very comparable if not behind the quality of kids who will be available at 30 this year. In a normal year I don't think the three best tall forwards in the draft are attainable around pick 20 etc.

Long story short, in 2022 I happily pay 10 and 11 for Bolton and change but not this year based on how many clubs are trying to get multiple picks. Equally Richmond should be very excited about the kids they could get with 10 and 18 eg Trainer, Travaglia and Shanahan to round out the gun mids they will get with the earlier picks.

This is alluding to what I think is one of the biggest differences between how the public and media view trading vs the clubs.

Except for clubs matching bids where the point values is king, the rest of the clubs are most interested in specific targets and ranges of talent, i.e. it doesn't matter what number is attached to a pick but what it might get you. Plus the salary cap and list spot elements which aren't always as clear externally.
Which means trades can look lopsided or out of whack when they go through.

Each club surely still tries to take the comparative route for other trades when it benefits them, but the internal mandate for a trade would be based around what you're giving up access to.

 

[Ge3ks]

Walls and his 3 first round picks.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

When do we start getting completely sensationalised media rumours to get us all frothing and angry?

 

[Ge3ks]

When do we start getting completely sensationalised media rumours to get us all frothing and angry?

It's already tense enough in here.

 

[freo84]

When do we start getting completely sensationalised media rumours to get us all frothing and angry?

Sensationalised trade rumours makes bigfooty posters go crazy...
Crazy! Don't mind if I do!

 

[Tonga Bob]

When do we start getting completely sensationalised media rumours to get us all frothing and angry?

Belly and the Silver Fox would never.






please bring them back

 

[apuchar]

Reporter on Fox reckons Bolton will cost 10 and 11 with something coming back.

 

[dont bowl there]

Reporter on Fox reckons Bolton will cost 10 and 11 with something coming back.

Fair chance that’s right but if it’s pick 21 and salary we shouldn’t rage. Meant to be a super deep draft so we can still pick very good prospects at pick ~20