List Mgmt. 2025 AFL Draft - Draft Analysis

[Groupie_]

I would ask the question : Whats he on ?

what all the other real estate agents are on, same shite as zhelensky

 

[docko911]

I’ve got a bit of a theory that we didn’t draft players that would directly compete with other top young prospects for senior games.

Taylor would’ve been in direct competition with Trainor, Brown, Banks and probably Gibcus.

Robey would’ve been in competition with Lalor, Hotton (to a lesser extent), Smillie and Kmac 2.0. Plus Armstrong, Faull and Sims as forwards.

Grlj and Cumming can play outside running roles + their inside games are different to the young players we already have.

I think we have effectively drafted players that will form our best 23 together rather than compete with each other for seniors spots. It’s a good strategy IMO as we had so many list spots to fill, and will give each top end player a greater chance to prove themselves.

Our list is all of a sudden looking very balanced in all of 2 years… ruck the only exception unless we take an SSP.

 

[Grockadoc]

Nah, we are completely different, personality wise haha. Plus, he is a Geelong supporter. So, he barely qualifies as human.

 

[tigerfan1961]

Better to nip it in the bud early IMO>

Tigers fans are lucky, you get to see Grilj tearing it up at training.

If we only had 1 first rounder it would be more dissapointing, but we still got Sharp and Farrow to be excited about.

Your mob picked two bolters and one slider. Risky imo

 

[sregit]

I’ve got a bit of a theory that we didn’t draft players that would directly compete with other top young prospects for senior games.

Taylor would’ve been in direct competition with Trainor, Brown, Banks and probably Gibcus.

Robey would’ve been in competition with Lalor, Hotton (to a lesser extent), Smillie and Kmac 2.0. Plus Armstrong, Faull and Sims as forwards.

Grlj and Cumming can play outside running roles + their inside games are different to the young players we already have.

I think we have effectively drafted players that will form our best 23 together rather than compete with each other for seniors spots. It’s a good strategy IMO as we had so many list spots to fill, and will give each top end player a greater chance to prove themselves.

Our list is all of a sudden looking very balanced in all of 2 years… ruck the only exception unless we take an SSP.

I'm not sure that your observation is a deliberate ploy by the club, but I can definitely see some merrit in what your saying. Does look a distinct possibility..

 

[SleepingGiant]

Imagine this board right now if we drafted Robey, especially with the issues we are going through with Smillie.

This place would be nuclear on here.

 

[ShereKhan]

It's absolutely fine for us to have different rankings to other industry experts, whether media experts or other recruiters. In fact, I'd be concerned if we didn't have our own rankings. But what happens if we were wrong? I think the post-premiership honeymoon period is over for our club and the era for accountability is fast approaching.

If we rated Grlj over Robey, then I'm completely fine with them picking Grlj in my view. As a non-expert, I liked Grlj at our pick before the draft myself. Wouldn't have picked him over Robey, but that's OK. I'm not the expert here.

However, I now expect Grlj to have a higher impact at AFL level than the likes of Sharp, Taylor, Robey, and anyone else we skipped on. He should be better than anyone below his pick considering this is by all reports a weak draft. Happy to back our club with their rankings, but that also comes with expectations.

I just don't want to hear excuses in 5 years' time on why "the club did the best they could at the time" and "they couldn't have seen this coming" etc. should our 2025 draft rankings not pass the test of time. We rely on our club's expert observations to rank these players according to talent, so I'd want to see accountability if it doesn't end up in our favour.

We'll have a better understanding of our current decisions when 2028 rolls around. That should be enough time to see how our 12 draftees (possibly 13 with SSP pick) over the last two years develop under Yze. I will back their decisions including extending Yze, but not going to lie, it'll be 10x more disappointed if it turns out they were making the wrong decisions all along.

A flag list is built over 6-8 x seasons. Made up of literally hundreds of list management decisions across ND, RD, MSD, Trades, F/S, Academy and free agency.

It’ll be disappointing if Robey, Sharp and Taylor are superior players to Grlj. But if we turn into a flag contending list and Grlj is part of that team, then it’s sort of irrelevant. As maybe Grlj plays a more important role as a great team player than others may play as individuals.

Cripps and Merrett have both been outstanding individual players, far superior to Lambert or Edwards. Would I swap Lambert or Edwards for either of them? Not a chance. (We kicked 2 x goals in the entire last qtr of Port v Tigers PF … Lambert kicked both). He also chased Dusty’s man for most of his career.

So every recruiter will have more losses than hits… 95% of picks will have superior players taken after them.

It’s the sum of the parts over the entire build that’s important, not ‘Robey is better than Grlj’ so we don’t know what we’re doing…

If we are crud in 3-years then we’ve likely stuffed up too many decisions and heads should roll.

 

[Tigerbob]

A flag list is built over 6-8 x seasons. Made up of literally hundreds of list management decisions across ND, RD, MSD, Trades, F/S, Academy and free agency.

It’ll be disappointing if Robey, Sharp and Taylor are superior players to Grlj. But if we turn into a flag contending list and Grlj is part of that team, then it’s sort of irrelevant. As maybe Grlj plays a more important role as a great team player than others may play as individuals.

Cripps and Merrett have both been outstanding individual players, far superior to Lambert or Edwards. Would I swap Lambert or Edwards for either of them? Not a chance. (We kicked 2 x goals in the entire last qtr of Port v Tigers PF … Lambert kicked both). He also chased Dusty’s man for most of his career.

So every recruiter will have more losses than hits… 95% of picks will have superior players taken after them.

It’s the sum of the parts over the entire build that’s important, not ‘Robey is better than Grlj’ so we don’t know what we’re doing…

If we are crud in 3-years then we’ve likely stuffed up too many decisions and heads should roll.

Well said.

One thing is for certain! Blair knows how to build a Premiership list.

 

[ShereKhan]

Yeah he’s definitely a very interesting prospect
Could be an absolute weapon but definitely has those question marks as to if he will be able to play mid at afl level

Similar even to Josh Caddy when he was drafted, the hope at all 3 clubs he played for was that he could go into the middle but ultimately couldn’t so was stuck forward and the wing in his later seasons with us

With the game the way it is medium forwards have kind of been pushed out of the game unless they can play midfield with teams preferring a full kpp marking type or go small for someone who can really pressure

I don’t think it’s an accident that Rhy has mentioned GPS data multiple times both pre draft and post draft.

Blind Freddy can see our major issue over the last few seasons has been how easily we get carved up through the middle, with teams slicing through us like a hot knife through butter.

I’m not sure what Robey will become, but I do know for certain he would not help us solve our major midfield problem.

I can see Grlj and Cumming helping us massively in this area. The balance of our midfield into the future looks brilliant - doesn’t mean the players will be good enough, but the balance is perfect.

 

[ShereKhan]

A club you have said needs small forwards and key position players gives up pick 8 in a weak draft to get 1.6 of those, and now you say it is a poor trade by them.

As for the bolded part, why does that only apply to North? Couldn't Richmond have also taken a range of promising players with the two picks they gave up?

Of course it’s a poor trade right now. At the moment we know next to zero as to whether Whitlock, Dovaston or Grlj are going to be any good or not.

So would anyone trade 2 x mid-20’s picks for pick-8? In any draft …. ever?

All we know from history is pick-8 is highly likely to be superior to later picks. That’s why nobody in their right mind ever trades away pick-8 for 2 x mid-20’s picks. We ain’t even trade pick-8 for 2 x firsts on offer from the Crows they offered us to get Sharp.

 

[lvt06]

Crazy all the pressure Essendon fans put on Robey, they’ve already hurt his back.

 

[Coach_Required]

Crazy all the pressure Essendon fans put on Robey, they’ve already hurt his back.

Did LOL at one of their comments. They said he already has hurt his back just by carrying all their hopes and dreams in 5 days.

 

[THE_GUN]

Well said.

One thing is for certain! Blair knows how to build a Premiership list.

Well he certainly has the blue print in his desk

Dusty - Lalor
Cotchin - Cumming
Shai - Hotton
Rance - Balta
Astbury - Miller
Riewoldt - Faull
Lynch - Armstrong
Rioli - Rioli
Edwards - Grlj
Lambert - Seth
Caddy - Smillie
Castagna - Peucker
Butler - Alger
Broad - Brown
Vlastuin - Gibcus
Nank - Sims
Short - NRT

 

[Burning bright]

Apparently it has leaked out that Robey did his back at Essendon Fields but not on the training track.

Poor kid not knowing the culture at the club he just haphazardly opened the wrong door and walked into the boardroom which at the time was in full session. Kid never stood a chance collaterals got him.

 

[Daka]

A flag list is built over 6-8 x seasons. Made up of literally hundreds of list management decisions across ND, RD, MSD, Trades, F/S, Academy and free agency.

It’ll be disappointing if Robey, Sharp and Taylor are superior players to Grlj. But if we turn into a flag contending list and Grlj is part of that team, then it’s sort of irrelevant. As maybe Grlj plays a more important role as a great team player than others may play as individuals.

Cripps and Merrett have both been outstanding individual players, far superior to Lambert or Edwards. Would I swap Lambert or Edwards for either of them? Not a chance. (We kicked 2 x goals in the entire last qtr of Port v Tigers PF … Lambert kicked both). He also chased Dusty’s man for most of his career.

So every recruiter will have more losses than hits… 95% of picks will have superior players taken after them.

It’s the sum of the parts over the entire build that’s important, not ‘Robey is better than Grlj’ so we don’t know what we’re doing…

If we are crud in 3-years then we’ve likely stuffed up too many decisions and heads should roll.

I've always thought it's what you have around your stars, not the other way around, let's be real most clubs have some sort of stars at their club or very good players.

Once in while you get Dusty type that does really special things, but I think Edwards still far underrated of how good of an inside midfielderr he was during our Premiership years. he just had something.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Of course it’s a poor trade right now. At the moment we know next to zero as to whether Whitlock, Dovaston or Grlj are going to be any good or not.

So would anyone trade 2 x mid-20’s picks for pick-8? In any draft …. ever?

All we know from history is pick-8 is highly likely to be superior to later picks. That’s why nobody in their right mind ever trades away pick-8 for 2 x mid-20’s picks. We ain’t even trade pick-8 for 2 x firsts on offer from the Crows they offered us to get Sharp.

This is made nonsense merely by the fact the 2024 draft is considered way stronger than the 2025 draft, especially for the key position players that you have said North needed to add to their list.

North were trying to get the best mixture of players for their list, which is exactly what any list management team should be doing. What they shouldn't be doing is saying pick 26 & 27 does not equal pick 8 in normal circumstances therefore we should never make that trade even when all circumstances and our list needs indicate we should.

 

[Toadvine]

It's nice North feel like they're clawing back to break even on the trade but reality is they haven't even finished paying for it. They still have the 2026 2nd rounder to play out and as we saw even in a "weaker" draft like this one there are still great players available in the 2nd round of all drafts.

Even if Norf have F/S or academy option they think would make the pick irrelevant, with the new rule changes they actually put those players at risk to being picked up by other teams by trading the pick out given the new rules around bid matching due to come in.

 

[tigs2010]

Of course it’s a poor trade right now. At the moment we know next to zero as to whether Whitlock, Dovaston or Grlj are going to be any good or not.

So would anyone trade 2 x mid-20’s picks for pick-8? In any draft …. ever?

All we know from history is pick-8 is highly likely to be superior to later picks. That’s why nobody in their right mind ever trades away pick-8 for 2 x mid-20’s picks. We ain’t even trade pick-8 for 2 x firsts on offer from the Crows they offered us to get Sharp.

They just traded 2 x 20s picks for pick 15 which seemed like they robbed Carlton.

 

[tigs2010]

This is made nonsense merely by the fact the 2024 draft is considered way stronger than the 2025 draft, especially for the key position players that you have said North needed to add to their list.

North were trying to get the best mixture of players for their list, which is exactly what any list management team should be doing. What they shouldn't be doing is saying pick 26 & 27 does not equal pick 8 in normal circumstances therefore we should never make that trade even when all circumstances and our list needs indicate we should.

2026 shaping up way stronger than 2025 and far closer to 2024.

The reality is they gained 2 x 20's picks (1 strong draft, 1 weak) for pick 8 and gained pick 15 back for 2 x 20's picks (1 strong draft, 1 weak)

Looking at it on paper the deal they did to get 15 was a poor deal for Carlton and the deal they did with us was worse lol.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

2026 shaping up way stronger than 2025 and far closer to 2024.

The reality is they gained 2 x 20's picks (1 strong draft, 1 weak) for pick 8 and gained pick 15 back for 2 x 20's picks (1 strong draft, 1 weak)

Looking at it on paper the deal they did to get 15 was a poor deal for Carlton and the deal they did with us was worse lol.

They are also shifting picks forward in both of those deals in order to get players to the club a year earlier than would otherwise be the case. You pay a little premium for that.

But even if overall you say their manoeuvring cost them 4-5 places in the draft order in value. They will just be targeting specific players or player types and paying the price to get them.

I do think also that as at draft night 2024, the 2024 draft was considered uncommonly strong, especially for its depth of key position players. You had players like the Whitlocks, Sims and Shanahan going either side of pick 30 and Gallop at pick 42. This is after Tauru, Faull, Trainor, Armstrong had gone earlier.

I think the only other draft in memory that offers that sort of key position depth was 2017 where Naughton 9 D Fogarty 12 Brander 13 Coleman-Jones 20 Allen 21 Balta 25 Taylor 28 McCartin 33 Petty 37 Murphy 39 Ballard 42 Payne 54 Miller 63 were available.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Looking at it and if things stayed the same which didn't involve us trading with Norf.
2024
Lalor
Smillie
Hotton
Faull
Trainor
Armstrong
Sims
Dodson
Jasper
2025(if we did the trade with carlton like norf did)
Cumming/Grilj
(16)Dovaston / ?????
Peuker
NRT.

 

[tigs2010]

Looking at it and if things stayed the same which didn't involve us trading with Norf.
2024
Lalor
Smillie
Hotton
Faull
Trainor
Armstrong
Sims
Dodson
Jasper
2025(if we did the trade with carlton like norf did)
Cumming/Grilj
(16)Dovaston / ?????
Peuker
NRT.

Chance we take Alger with the Whitlock pick. The link was there pre-draft but we maybe always intended to trade a pick out and then trade in for Alger when we had a chance and that's the range we were keen on him.

We didn't have the list spots to take Dodson & then trade in for Alger.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Chance we take Alger with the Whitlock pick. The link was there pre-draft but we maybe always intended to trade a pick out and then trade in for Alger when we had a chance and that's the range we were keen on him.

We didn't have the list spots to take Dodson & then trade in for Alger.

Thought that might have been the case.

 

[tigs2010]

Thought that might have been the case.

Is it too late to ask Rhy if we hadnt traded the Whitlock pick if we take Alger there? You got him on speed dial now Michaels ?

 

[THECHIEFTON]

Norf should have just used the pick they traded for Caleb Daniel

5

Caleb Daniel

Age

29

Ht

171cm

Wt

72kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

9.8

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

19.5

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

8.4

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

CL

1.0

3star

D

16.4

4star

K

7.2

3star

HB

9.2

5star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.2

2star

on Shanahan or Whitlock etc... They get to keep all their picks. Get the tall they needed and don't have Daniel spudding it up on their list in a position they can easily cover.