AFL 2025 Brownlow

[sohohoho]

Biggest thing against him is how hard it is to win when you have another team mate polling in the 20s.

But he did win the coaches award, only Daicos had more disposals and he is club captain, there is lots to like.

One of those two Suns have a chance to overpoll vs the other and poll into the 30s if that happens.

Anderson outright price above is good on my numbers

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Young club captain is definitely one good factor he has going for him.

One of those two Suns have a chance to overpoll vs the other and poll into the 30s if that happens.

I guess how those 2 and 3 votes are split will go a long way in determining who finishes ahead.

This seems to be the prevailing narrative everywhere but I can't understand why Anderson seemingly has the edge to this in the market.

Polling history: Big time in Rowell's favor.
Eye catching: Definitely Rowell.
Without umpires getting stats the bell weathers become Clearances, Contested Possessions, Tackles: Rowell.

That 'quiet patch' from round 7-14 he could still poll in 5 of those matches. I reckon he beats Anderson even if he polls nothing from those.

And again, even if Anderson overcomes all that he's doing low 30's and has to overcome Daicos, Smith and Dawson. Daicos is $3.50 for 35+.

 

[ExchangeStatMan]

Young club captain is definitely one good factor he has going for him.



This seems to be the prevailing narrative everywhere but I can't understand why Anderson seemingly has the edge to this in the market.

Polling history: Big time in Rowell's favor.
Eye catching: Definitely Rowell.
Without umpires getting stats the bell weathers become Clearances, Contested Possessions, Tackles: Rowell.

That 'quiet patch' from round 7-14 he could still poll in 5 of those matches. I reckon he beats Anderson even if he polls nothing from those.

And again, even if Anderson overcomes all that he's doing low 30's and has to overcome Daicos, Smith and Dawson. Daicos is $3.50 for 35+.

If it means anything, I had Rowell polling more votes than Noah last season- got on at 5.50 and took it lower odds closer to the count at $3 , and he was underdog for sure to win Suns votes last season.

Just feel Anderson goals are a bit more eye catching, and Meters Gained is a metric that umpires look at. And as sohoho mentioned, being a captain means a bit.

Maybe keep an eye out on a Rowell+ Anderson combined votes markets if that comes out.

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Maybe keep an eye out on a Rowell+ Anderson combined votes markets if that comes out.

Yeah nice was real disappointed r23 and r24 with their losses to Giants and Power. The quinella dream could have been in play would've been great to see.

 

[Billionaire Panda]

and Meters Gained is a metric that umpires look at

Do you mean something they subtly notice in game? Coz we're led to believe there's a strict no stats rule in place. And its normally a stat owned by half backs who get shafted on votes each year. Sam Walsh is a metres gained type of player, after he gets the handball from Cripps, and Cripps is the one that gets the votes.

Will be interesting to see if they start to edge away from the pure contested bulls and clearances as their metric and reward outside players more. Makes the Geelong count an important watch coz Holmes is mostly run and carry metres gained, Smith a good mix of the two.

Still with Holmes and Anderson we're asking them to buck the actual trend we see each year so we'd wanna be getting good odds on it.

 

[ExchangeStatMan]

Do you mean something they subtly notice in game? Coz we're led to believe there's a strict no stats rule in place. And its normally a stat owned by half backs who get shafted on votes each year.

Contested possessions, clearances are king. Its a metric that gets discussed quite a bit , metres gained. Score involvements important too, but goals are the cherry off the top.

Dont want to be too stat dependent but my observation seemed like with Gold Coast being a better side this season, I often saw Noah lurk more in front of goal.

Just believe what your instincts are, Ive got some bets spread across other markets. Dont want to put you off from whatever your initial instinct was. I do understand your point about Noah potentially reaching his ceiling of low 30s and other contenders going past him- which could very well happen. Starting to think about it more, a lower count probably favours Noah and Rowell as they will pinch votes off each other.


Naicos starts favourite by name and reputation. But if you strongly feel about your man, back him would be my advice.

 

[Billionaire Panda]

a lower count probably favours Noah and Rowell as they will pinch votes off each other.

Yeah hard to see both of them going well below 30 in a low count that's for sure.

Naicos starts favourite by name and reputation. But if you strongly feel about your man, back him would be my advice.

Daicos well under the odds but that's nothing new.

 

[Trucker Tiger]

Anyone that has Anderson a proper chance, please convince me. What does he get to and what games?

Umps had a mid-season hissy fit about players bumping into them and Rowell was the main offender. If there are half a dozen games where it's hard to split the pair for the three and the two, they could break heavily Anderson's way.

 

[Billionaire Panda]

or they break heavily Rowell's way coz they felt his presence at every contest

 

[sohohoho]

And again, even if Anderson overcomes all that he's doing low 30's and has to overcome Daicos, Smith and Dawson. Daicos is $3.50 for 35+.

These one way prices are all terrible guides though
Actual probability of 35+ is much lower.

That said it's all in both Suns range of outcomes to poll this.

 

[sohohoho]

Daicos is favourite from a combination of name, polling history and the fact he's competing against literal nobodies for votes.

They've won more games this year too

 

[Sausage Legs]

Thought I keep track of most things but has anyone seen the compilation brownlowgenius have? Are they new? Worth a look for free

 

[Rank]

Interesting that Brisbane is $2.50 favourite for total team votes, they had 16 wins and a draw with the worst percentage in the top 4.
I would have thought teams with more wins and a big percentage indicates more dominant wins and closer losses which would result in more votes.

I reckon Geelong $2.75 or Adelaide $10 seems better value.

Adelaide @10

 

[sohohoho]

Thought I keep track of most things but has anyone seen the compilation brownlowgenius have? Are they new? Worth a look for free

just say its your site

 

[Sausage Legs]

just say its your site

If I could post my votes on my napkins I would

 

[Sausage Legs]

Interesting that Brisbane is $2.50 favourite for total team votes, they had 16 wins and a draw with the worst percentage in the top 4.
I would have thought teams with more wins and a big percentage indicates more dominant wins and closer losses which would result in more votes.

I reckon Geelong $2.75 or Adelaide $10 seems better value.

Adelaide @10

Reckon I got the dogs who didnt make the 8

 

[sohohoho]

If I could post my votes on my napkins I would

well you are one of the 5 napkins being used there then.

 

[sohohoho]

Interesting that Brisbane is $2.50 favourite for total team votes, they had 16 wins and a draw with the worst percentage in the top 4.
I would have thought teams with more wins and a big percentage indicates more dominant wins and closer losses which would result in more votes.

I reckon Geelong $2.75 or Adelaide $10 seems better value.

Adelaide @10

have Bris faves but backed Adelaide.

 

[Rank]

Reckon I got the dogs who didnt make the 8

They did win plenty of games easily for a team that missed the 8.

 

[Sausage Legs]

With all the markets pretty much out now, wotz everyone's bests at current odds.
Mine is probably
Rowell 25+
Baz top 5, Finn Call top 20
multi at 2.37 at tab

Best single atm is still LDU kangs team votes 5.50 on sbet

 

[Rank]

With all the markets pretty much out now, wotz everyone's bests at current odds.
Mine is probably
Rowell 25+
Baz top 5, Finn Call top 20
multi at 2.37 at tab

Best single atm is still LDU kangs team votes 5.50 on sbet

I like Rankine round 22 v Eagles 3 votes @5, he had a huge 20 disposal 2nd half and kicked a clutch last quarter goal, Dawson got the 10 coaches votes, Rankine 8, Rankine stood out more to me though and was the match winner.

Also like Rankine round 21 v Hawthorn @5, was huge in last quarter come back kicking a couple of goals including a stunner from the pocket, finished with 9 score involvements 3 goal assists and kicked 3, Dawson was also huge but i reckon Rankine was the difference and brilliant when the game was up for grabs.

 

[ExchangeStatMan]

BetR Free Hit Promo for any bet this weekend.(Until 21 Sept)


Most GWS Votes- Callaghan
Most St.Kilda Votes (W/o NWM)- Marshall

@ $21

 

[Rank]

Head to Head Brownlow multi.
Picks named 1st.

Rankine v Toby Greene

4

Toby Greene

Age

32

Ht

182cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.7

5star

K

12.5

5star

HB

10.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

3.0

5star

G

1.2

4star

D

17.5

4star

K

9.5

4star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.8

4star

T

1.0

2star

G

2.3

5star

D

26.6

5star

K

12.4

5star

HB

14.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

3.6

5star

G

0.0

1star

Gawn v Grundy
Naicos v B Smith
Serong v Tom Green

12

Tom Green

Age

25

Ht

192cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

3star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

5star

Thilthorpe v J Cameron @21.92

 

[ExchangeStatMan]

My H2H bets:

Thilthorpe more votes than J Cameron
Dunkley more votes than Cripps
Hewett more votes than Newcombe
Rozee more votes than Neale

@ 23.41

 

[Sausage Legs]

Serong over green
Trac over jaicos
Big Harry over king
At 6.30