Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[ctwenty1]

Finding delisting candidates has never been a problem at Carlton

THere are some on the choppoing block this year that I would perefer to keep, and some who are contracted that I woudl rather delist

Not so easy this year - I think next year easier

 

[Stamos]

Finding delisting candidates has never been a problem at Carlton

Unfortunately a few of them are contracted for next year.

 

[ferrisb]

Unfortunately a few of them are contracted for next year.

Laugh + Cry Emoji

 

[SwarlesBarkley]

Pretty good comments re Ison on Sen - ‘Bont-esk’….

 

[Stamos]

Pretty good comments re Ison on Sen - ‘Bont-esk’….

****
I don’t want any of those sorts of comments to be public until after the draft

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Is Ess the most likely to trade with now?

Trade 9 and 11 for 6, 21 and 30?

They only slide 3 spots at the top and gain 11 for 2 speculative picks.

That gives us a Grlj, etc. at pick 6 as well as enough points for Dean - yeah?

This assumes Dean isn't bid on prior to that pick 6 which would involve a quiet word to ess not to bid on him at 5 as part of the deal.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Is Ess the most likely to trade with now?

Trade 9 and 11 for 6, 21 and 30?

They only slide 3 spots at the top and gain 11 for 2 speculative picks.

That gives us a Grlj, etc. at pick 6 as well as enough points for Dean - yeah?

This assumes Dean isn't bid on prior to that pick 6 which would involve a quiet word to ess not to bid on him at 5 as part of the deal.

I think we' need to do that on the night to guarantee no bid.

 

[LegendaryBlues]

Is Ess the most likely to trade with now?

Trade 9 and 11 for 6, 21 and 30?

They only slide 3 spots at the top and gain 11 for 2 speculative picks.

That gives us a Grlj, etc. at pick 6 as well as enough points for Dean - yeah?

This assumes Dean isn't bid on prior to that pick 6 which would involve a quiet word to ess not to bid on him at 5 as part of the deal.

Is there at someone at 6 we aim for, try to trade for 5 instead or trade that pick 5/6 into 2026? Duursma, CDT, Robey and X Taylor likely gone first 4. It'll be about whether Grlj/ Sharp or Cumming are worth it, as it looks like it dips in quality after that.

 

[agro]

****
I don’t want any of those sorts of comments to be public until after the draft

I’ll be happy if he turns out to be as good as Joel Freijah (Little Bont) - that would be a win.

 

[King Cripps]

Pretty good comments re Ison on Sen - ‘Bont-esk’….

The more highlights I watch of ISON I’m thinking Pendlebury

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Is there at someone at 6 we aim for, try to trade for 5 instead or trade that pick 5/6 into 2026? Duursma, CDT, Robey and X Taylor likely gone first 4. It'll be about whether Grlj/ Sharp or Cumming are worth it, as it looks like it dips in quality after that.

I think as long as we get the bombres to not bid on Dean it works for both clubs. We get 2 top 10 picks instead of just Dean and the second pick sliding way back .

Even in a shallow draft a pick 5/6 you've still got to be confident there's a player there.

And the bombres get 9 and 11 for 6.

 

[Cowboyblues]

So if we do manage to push up the order or get a pick in before Dean, what is our
Priority??
Reading through some phantoms and watching a little, is Schubert the guy we want to groom as the next key forward to bookend with Dean??
We are going to have mids covered and HOF already showing his wares to pair with Dean down back, a Key forward seems the logical choice.

 

[SurreyBlue]

AFL Draft 2025: Bolters, sliders in post-combine power rankings

With the AFL Draft combine wrapped up and more intel for clubs to go by, ESPN releases its October power rankings featuring the top 40 junior prospects from around the country in 2025.

www.espn.com.au

I don’t believe we need to trade. This one is probably close to the draft pick no.’s
We can get Dean with 9 at worse and still a decent pick in the 10’s with the points left over from 11 or someone with 9 and Dean with 11.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Is Ess the most likely to trade with now?

Trade 9 and 11 for 6, 21 and 30?

They only slide 3 spots at the top and gain 11 for 2 speculative picks.

That gives us a Grlj, etc. at pick 6 as well as enough points for Dean - yeah?

This assumes Dean isn't bid on prior to that pick 6 which would involve a quiet word to ess not to bid on him at 5 as part of the deal.

Theoretically, yes.

But I believe Tigers will take Grlj and Robey with their first two picks. I also believe that if we wanted to move up, we'd want one of those two.

Maybe if we work out a trade with WC?

9 + 11 + 27F1(Swans) -> 2 + 34 + 53 + F2

Then pass that F2 on to get another couple of picks this year. Maybe F2(WCE) -> 26 + 57 from North?

It looks bad giving up 3 first round picks, but 11 will get consumed anyway and Swans 27 1st might not be too far off the Eagles 26 2nd in terms of quality anyway... hopefully they go for it, we'd jump the Tigers, bid on the Suns boy Uwland (to potentially make Dean matching a bit easier) and be left with:

~26 + ~32 + ~40 + ~46 + ~47 + ~50 = ~1409 points.

Dean bid likely comes in at pick 10 (after bids) = 1148 points required...

Cuts it a little close, we'll have about 261 points for Ison plus 84 essentially because that's the discount after pick 18. So we'd be able to match a bid at 35 for him without going into deficit. If he's bid on at 25 (absolute worst case) we'd have 245 points in deficit which is not what we'd want. But I'd say Ison gets bid on around the 35 mark anyway. Maybe we could convince the Eagles to throw in pick 58 as well to help out...

Net result is we get Robey/Grlj + Dean + Ison

Just depends how bad we'd want to move up the order.

 

[GoBlues!]

Maybe if we work out a trade with WC?

9 + 11 + 27F1(Swans) -> 2 + 34 + 53 + F2

Then pass that F2 on to get another couple of picks this year. Maybe F2(WCE) -> 26 + 57 from North?

I like your thinking BF.

Putting aside the 27F1 and F2 swaps. if we traded 9 and 11 to WCE for picks 2, 34, 53, WCE gains 2,560 points and loses 2,869 points, ie. a net loss of around 300 points.

Not sure how keen WCE would be trading down for two Carlton picks and ending up with a nett loss of points especially after last year.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Theoretically, yes.

But I believe Tigers will take Grlj and Robey with their first two picks. I also believe that if we wanted to move up, we'd want one of those two.

Maybe if we work out a trade with WC?

9 + 11 + 27F1(Swans) -> 2 + 34 + 53 + F2

Then pass that F2 on to get another couple of picks this year. Maybe F2(WCE) -> 26 + 57 from North?

It looks bad giving up 3 first round picks, but 11 will get consumed anyway and Swans 27 1st might not be too far off the Eagles 26 2nd in terms of quality anyway... hopefully they go for it, we'd jump the Tigers, bid on the Suns boy Uwland (to potentially make Dean matching a bit easier) and be left with:

~26 + ~32 + ~40 + ~46 + ~47 + ~50 = ~1409 points.

Dean bid likely comes in at pick 10 (after bids) = 1148 points required...

Cuts it a little close, we'll have about 261 points for Ison plus 84 essentially because that's the discount after pick 18. So we'd be able to match a bid at 35 for him without going into deficit. If he's bid on at 25 (absolute worst case) we'd have 245 points in deficit which is not what we'd want. But I'd say Ison gets bid on around the 35 mark anyway. Maybe we could convince the Eagles to throw in pick 58 as well to help out...

Net result is we get Robey/Grlj + Dean + Ison

Just depends how bad we'd want to move up the order.

I don't think we can go in with 6 picks without 6 spots on the list. Plus don't we need a first round pick to bid on someone in the first round?

I've lost track of the rules completely now.

Grlj is rated 13 on cal twomeys PD. He's often wrong but rarely by that much.

 

[StanleyBeren]

I don't think we can go in with 6 picks without 6 spots on the list. Plus don't we need a first round pick to bid on someone in the first round?

I've lost track of the rules completely now.

Grlj is rated 13 on cal twomeys PD. He's often wrong but rarely by that much.

Cal works off whispers from the clubs. His order come draft night will likely look very different.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Theoretically, yes.

But I believe Tigers will take Grlj and Robey with their first two picks. I also believe that if we wanted to move up, we'd want one of those two.

Maybe if we work out a trade with WC?

9 + 11 + 27F1(Swans) -> 2 + 34 + 53 + F2

Then pass that F2 on to get another couple of picks this year. Maybe F2(WCE) -> 26 + 57 from North?

It looks bad giving up 3 first round picks, but 11 will get consumed anyway and Swans 27 1st might not be too far off the Eagles 26 2nd in terms of quality anyway... hopefully they go for it, we'd jump the Tigers, bid on the Suns boy Uwland (to potentially make Dean matching a bit easier) and be left with:

~26 + ~32 + ~40 + ~46 + ~47 + ~50 = ~1409 points.

Dean bid likely comes in at pick 10 (after bids) = 1148 points required...

Cuts it a little close, we'll have about 261 points for Ison plus 84 essentially because that's the discount after pick 18. So we'd be able to match a bid at 35 for him without going into deficit. If he's bid on at 25 (absolute worst case) we'd have 245 points in deficit which is not what we'd want. But I'd say Ison gets bid on around the 35 mark anyway. Maybe we could convince the Eagles to throw in pick 58 as well to help out...

Net result is we get Robey/Grlj + Dean + Ison

Just depends how bad we'd want to move up the order.

I just dont think the club is going to be that desperate to trade up. So much talk of the flexibility our 6 first rounders in 3 years. I think we'll want to maximise that as much possible.

Plus we likely dont have the list spots to take more then 3 picks into the draft.

 

[HBF]

I think as long as we get the bombres to not bid on Dean it works for both clubs. We get 2 top 10 picks instead of just Dean and the second pick sliding way back .

Even in a shallow draft a pick 5/6 you've still got to be confident there's a player there.

And the bombres get 9 and 11 for 6.

I doubt Essendon will bid.
They have Bewick coming through in 27. Reckon the earliest he gets bid on is 7

 

[ESKIE]

Big wraps on Ison on the radio earlier this week

 

[marcmurphy3]

Big wraps on Ison on the radio earlier this week

I think we need to factor in a bid for him coming as early as late 1st round. I think people are forgetting that with their pick trade scenarios. Not going to be able to get him for lose change.

And he'll be worth it.

 

[Mondyboy]

AFL Draft 2025: Bolters, sliders in post-combine power rankings

With the AFL Draft combine wrapped up and more intel for clubs to go by, ESPN releases its October power rankings featuring the top 40 junior prospects from around the country in 2025.

www.espn.com.au

I don’t believe we need to trade. This one is probably close to the draft pick no.’s
We can get Dean with 9 at worse and still a decent pick in the 10’s with the points left over from 11 or someone with 9 and Dean with 11.

This is what I wasn't sure on.

If Dean was called out at 8 (pick 6 current) and we used both 11 and 13 (current pick 9 and 11)—I'm assuming Uwland and Patterson bids--then that's 1299 points needed with the 10% discount.

11 falls short on its own so you need 13.

11+13=2285. Surplus is 986 which is the equivalent of pick 15.

So we get Dean and 15 for 11 and 13.

Is that right?

ETA I forgot Annabale, but I think my maths is right anyway.

 

[ESKIE]

I think we need to factor is a bid for him coming as early as late 1st round. I think people are forgetting that with their pick trade scenarios. Not going to be able to get him for lose change.

And he'll be worth it.

I think it was mick Ablett, said ‘his footy IQ is off the charts’

 

[Mondyboy]

This is what I wasn't sure on.

If Dean was called out at 8 (pick 6 current) and we used both 11 and 13 (current pick 9 and 11)—I'm assuming Uwland and Patterson bids--then that's 1299 points needed with the 10% discount.

11 falls short on its own so you need 13.

11+13=2285. Surplus is 986 which is the equivalent of pick 15.

So we get Dean and 15 for 11 and 13.

Is that right?

ETA I forgot Annabale, but I think my maths is right anyway.

And if he was bid on at pick 11 as per the link above...

That's 1205. Our bids are 12 and 14. So we'd only need 12 with the 10% discount. Anyway, I'm going to stop now before I frazzle my brain.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I think it was mick Ablett, said ‘his footy IQ is off the charts’

Been saying this for quite a while. He's Pendles esq with his movement in and around stoppage.

Id be shocked if he goes any later than 30 on draft night. Personally have him ranked around 15.