Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[GT619]

I actually couldn’t care less if you believe it or not. I really really couldn’t. Just telling the Carlton fans what I’ve heard from sources in the recruiting space and it makes complete sense strategically for both clubs.

do you expect carlton trading up , do we have a specific target before Dean

 

[Jimmae]

A lot would depend on what Cold Goats and Brissy have done with their picks. If they've traded out 15, 17 and 18, suddenly that pick 21 is 24. So we'd have 24 and ~29 to match Dean. A bid earlier than 11 would then eat in to 54 (which by then might be in the early 40s). We'd get something back, but probably not enough to match Ison.

I think we might need to get a third club involved. Not sure what that would look like though.

They've already traded as far back as they realistically can, but they might both need to come into more points. I think they'll need to trade into this draft some more to make that happen.

6 straight up for 9&11 probably improves our hand. Giving away 21 and 27 and pressuring Carlton into doing it with a bid on Dean is the bit that I'm calling bullshit

That's an obscene trade, no one would do that in our position, including you. He's trying to balance it, which is exactly what would happen in negotiations if you wanted to get more top 15 picks (which is a strategy that has merit in this draft).

If your recruitment team thinks your academy boys are sliding down the order, they'll either trade out, or trade up.

the bid matching is probably going to cost you guys 650 points as you get pushed down by the annable, uwland and patterson picks - from 3454 points to 2798 points ouch - (and our 9 and 11 probably becomes 12 and 14, a 400 pt loss itself)

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

You're not accounting for the picks that are deleted, which then bump later picks back up and then some. As for where their earlier picks fall to from a talent pool perspective, the academy players aren't really accessible, it's just about who is next on the shortlist, and that's a pre-draft consideration for acquiring the pick.

ive looked all of the "rankings" and they seem to provide a degree of consensus and are variations on this:

1	duursma	WEST COAST
2	duff-tytler	WEST COAST
3	zeke	GOLD COAST
4	robey	RICHMOND
5	anabble	BRISBANE
6	patterson	GOLD COAST
7	taylor	RICHMOND

with essendon holding 8 and 9 and melbourne holding 10 and 11

All of this is largely the obvious standouts and traditional video/match scouting, limited list analysis, and 3rd hand gossip. People aren't going to get much a read on anything until interview numbers start to rack up from clubs, as well as the number of interviews each candidate saw at the combine, and various pick trade discussion get quietly leaked.

Lots of footage still being sifted through, and all of these media and forum types do not have national scouting networks, they listen to each other a bit but that only carries you so far in a given state or territory.

My memory for Fyfe s draft year is a bit different.

Remember him playing in a champs game as like 3rd tall half forward. Looked very thin and light and a very flakey footballer.

I also Remember him having a couple of big games in the colts right at the end of the year, dominating as a forward.
My understanding was he didn’t do a hell of a lot until the end of the year and those late season big games drew Fremantles attention. I think he was taken at roughly pick 20, and that was seen as a reach.

He was a late developer and the difference between his under 18 year and his first year for freo was huge.

No you're remembering him about the same, but he was playing a far mobile role at Colts, whereas for WA he had to stay at home more. I don't think he was used as a contested mid, at all, but he clearly influenced packs and stoppages in his area all the time, hence the 34 disposal 8 goal game in the WAFL Colts finals.

 

[Stamos]

Carlton will match an early bid on father-son prospect Harry Dean and is likely to use three live picks, with Next Generation Academy prospect Jack Ison also in its sights

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1444419

 

[Coona Blues]

I think we need to factor in a bid for him coming as early as late 1st round. I think people are forgetting that with their pick trade scenarios. Not going to be able to get him for lose change.

And he'll be worth it.

I think it was mick Ablett, said ‘his footy IQ is off the charts’

Mick Ablett thinks every draft has 250 once in a generation players...

Ison is a good, maybe even a great prospect, but let’s get things in perspective, the article quoting Ablett was one talking up the draft. It was “responding” to claims it was a weak draft, rather than an honest appraisal.

I don’t rule out a highish bid for Ison, but it would surprise me. Expecting his range to be much closer to 30 than 20.

Similarly, I have Dean in the range of our first two picks as opposed to having someone reaching in the top half dozen.

A look at our list suggests strongly that we must replace Lemmey with a key forward prospect. With Walker absorbing mist of our draft capital next year and Tassie gazetted to enter the fray the following year, opportunity to draft a quality young key will be limited. The draft is not stacked with key forwards, but there are “enough”.

Aiden Schubert leads the list as a top ten prospect. The SA lad is super athletic and can give a genuine ruck chop out. Some have questioned his kicking, but I does not stand out as an issue to me.

Archie Ludowyke has shown promise since his underage cameos at the carnival. Didn’t have the best of years with some body issues keeping him from fulfilling his promise. This probably leads to a discount in to the teens or perhaps beyond.

Louis Emmett is a forward/ruck prospect with superb attack on the ball and playing with a “but of an edge”. Every thing that Harry Lemmey was not. Another decent option likely in the 20 to 30 range.

The other prospect is the much touted Liam Hetherton. “Australian” development squad pre season, but struggled to get on the park due to injury and therefore largely dropped off the radar of many. His underage form may encourage a team to reach early second round, or he could slip like our own KPD tyro Harry O’Farrell did last year.

There are plenty of other decent prospects in the 10-30 range, but logic absolutely says we look at a key forward. We will have young key defenders for a decade plus in HOF and Dean in coming years, but will need a mature option to be added in the DFA or SSP period. (Numbers suggest all of Hollands, McGovern, White and F.Young are most likely gone)

 

[Uncle Fester]

You're not accounting for the picks that are deleted, which then bump later picks back up and then some.

I have.

Yes we aren’t certain exactly how it will pan out, but this is the best guess

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

Aiden Schubert leads the list as a top ten prospect. The SA lad is super athletic and can give a genuine ruck chop out. Some have questioned his kicking, but I does nit stand out as an issue to me.

Archie Ludowyke has shown promise since his underage cameos at the carnival. Didn’t have the best of years with some body issues keeping him from fulfilling his promise. This probably leads to a discount in to the teens or perhaps beyond.

Louis Emmett is a forward/ruck prospect with superb attack on the ball and playing with a “but of an edge”. Every thing that Harry Lemmey was not. Another decent option likely in the 20 to 30 range.

The other prospect is the much touted Liam Hetherton. “Australian” development squad pre season, but struggled to get on the park due to injury and therefore largely dropped off the radar of many. His underage form may encourage a team to reach early second round, or he could slip like our own KPD tyro Harry O’Farrell did last year.

There are plenty of other decent prospects in the 10-30 range, but logic absolutely says we look at a key forward. We will have young key defenders for a decade plus in HOF and Dean in coming years, but will need a mature option to be added in the DFA or SSP period. (Numbers suggest all of Hollands, McGovern, White and F.Young are most likely gone)

Who would you compare these KPF's with in previous drafts?
I've only watched Schubert's highlights. He doesn't look like a competitive 'Jed Walter type', more 'Lemmyish'.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

I like the look of Thredgold, athletic for his size and tackles blokes like he wants to hurt them. Can play both ends too

 

[Coona Blues]

I like the look of Thredgold, athletic for his size and tackles blokes like he wants to hurt them. Can play both ends too

KPD first, but can’t discount him completely. Getting some good reviews of late and probably considered the no. 2 KPD in the draft. The mix becomes an issue. Dean at 194cm and Thredgold similar is probably not a great combo. Weiters at 197/198cm, but pretty slow needs athletic types around him. Logic says we would be better served with someone to play on the modern stereotype “beanpole” athletic types around or (Darcy) above 200cm.

The “elephant in the room” revolves around Harry O’Farrell. Projects as a “generational” KPD, but has shown promise forward, and a couple of posters (with contacts) have stated that the club sees him as capable of playing forward. Certainly has the skill set. Given the modern game HOF (listed 197cm, but likely now taller) with height and athleticism would team perfectly with Weitering and young Dean to cover all forward types.

In the eventuality that we play a forward mix of McKay, Kemp, Moir and forward/ruck O’Keeffe, in the top team, we would have no AFL listed tall forwards developing in the twos. That makes no sense.

 

[GoBlues!]

A look at our list suggests strongly that we must replace Lemmey with a key forward prospect. With Walker absorbing mist of our draft capital next year and Tassie gazetted to enter the fray the following year, opportunity to draft a quality young key will be limited. The draft is not stacked with key forwards, but there are “enough”.

Aiden Schubert leads the list as a top ten prospect. The SA lad is super athletic and can give a genuine ruck chop out. Some have questioned his kicking, but I does not stand out as an issue to me.

I think trading up for an earlier pick with Essendon makes sense if helps us secure a KPF like Schubert.

If we’re aiming for three selections I would be very happy with Schubert, Dean and Ison.

 

[Coona Blues]

Who would you compare these KPF's with in previous drafts?
I've only watched Schubert's highlights. He doesn't look like a competitive 'Jed Walter type', more 'Lemmyish'.

I haven’t done a deep dive yet, just the eye test. Until Lemmey was delisted, I wasn’t focussed on tall forwards, more on small forwards and rebounding distributors. Our trade period changed that focus.

Schubert became impossible to overlook with the success of the SA team, hybrids like Marsh and Nairn played their part, but Schubert was the focal point. It becomes very hard to assess future KPP. Most talent scouts look for moments over a body of work at the lower level when they are often more physically developed than their opponents. Don’t like projecting type comparisons. Maybe a bit of Shanahan from last year doing well at West Coast. There is a massive range between Walter and Lemmey BTW.

 

[Coona Blues]

I think trading up for an earlier pick with Essendon makes sense if helps us secure a KPF like Schubert.

If we’re aiming for three selections I would be very happy with Schubert, Dean and Ison.

I am not in to the trading up idea. Would not bundle our picks to get ahead of a possible early Dean pick and push our second back too far. It leaves us vulnerable to not having enough draft capital for both Dean and Ison. I would also not use future picks to move up. We need the ‘26 picks to cover Walker, and it is doubtful the ‘27 futures buy much given that they will likely be pushed back to the twenties after Tassies initial haul.

I am hopeful, not confident that both Schubert and Dean reach our first pick, which as you suggest, would be the dream. I am also confident that at least one of Ludowyke, Emmett or Hetherton could provide us with an excellent developing tall option. The recruiters have more insight than I, on where to rate them respectively.

 

[bradfisher14]

Wouldn't mind taking Schubert just to hear us yelling out shooooooooooooo every time he gets near the ball.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Schubert plays and is built, exactly like the type of junior KPFs that struggle to translate to AFL level.

Nothings for sure but Id be nervous taking him just because we need a young KPF. Alot are busts, even in the first round. Can afford to wait a few years for the right prospect.

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

Schubert plays and is built, exactly like the type of junior KPFs that struggle to translate to AFL level.

Nothings for sure but Id be nervous taking him just because we need a young KPF. Alot are busts,

I haven’t done a deep dive yet, just the eye test. Until Lemmey was delisted, I wasn’t focussed on tall forwards, more on small forwards and rebounding distributors. Our trade period changed that focus.

Schubert became impossible to overlook with the success of the SA team, hybrids like Marsh and Nairn played their part, but Schubert was the focal point. It becomes very hard to assess future KPP. Most talent scouts look for moments over a body of work at the lower level when they are often more physically developed than their opponents. Don’t like projecting type comparisons. Maybe a bit of Shanahan from last year doing well at West Coast. There is a massive range between Walter and Lemmey BTW.

In my uneducated viewing, Schubert didn't look physical or aggressive enough.

 

[GoBlues!]

I am hopeful, not confident that both Schubert and Dean reach our first pick, which as you suggest, would be the dream. I am also confident that at least one of Ludowyke, Emmett or Hetherton could provide us with an excellent developing tall option. The recruiters have more insight than I, on where to rate them respectively.

Low likelihood that we’d get both Schubert and Dean with picks 9 + 11. Rather than hope trading up gets us ahead of Melb and Essendon and would make it more certain of getting both Schubert and Dean.

eg.a trade with Essendon for their pick 5 and two R2 picks for our 9 and 11, gives us 5, 21, 27, 43, 54, 67, 72, 87, 105.

Pick 5 gets us Schubert, and the remaining picks Dean and Ison.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Low likelihood that we’d get both Schubert and Dean with picks 9 + 11. Rather than hope trading up gets us ahead of Melb and Essendon and would make it more certain of getting both Schubert and Dean.

eg.a trade with Essendon for their pick 5 and two R2 picks for our 9 and 11, gives us 5, 21, 27, 43, 54, 67, 72, 87, 105.

Pick 5 gets us Schubert, and the remaining picks Dean and Ison.

Personally wouldn't be trading up for Schubert. Good KPF/ruck prospect but doesn't have the upside to invest that heavily in. If he fell to our pick gladly pick him up though.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

thats the joyous bit - one of my favourite carlton players ever - if we get even something approaching his dad..... and the portents are strong, the next generation wont know what hit them.. was talking to my kids about Deano.... best i could come up with was Tom Stewart with more flair and violence

The man himself (Peter) told me he was rapt with how he's progressed. Will be a great pick up.

 

[bluemahogany]

Havent been following the last few days but surely best option is to trade one the firsts out into next years first, take Dean, Ison and one more?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Havent been following the last few days but surely best option is to trade one the firsts out into next years first, take Dean, Ison and one more?

Not many teams would be too keen on trading out of next year. Far stronger draft class at this stage.

 

[Monstablue]

With our new coaching appointment yesterday from Eastern Rangers we'd have some real insight into Robey... I always worry with limited exposed form trading up that high for a bolter but we'd have best insight now youd think and may influence decision...........

 

[GoBlues!]

Personally wouldn't be trading up for Schubert. Good KPF/ruck prospect but doesn't have the upside to invest that heavily in. If he fell to our pick gladly pick him up though.

Schubert was mentioned as a player who’s probably the best KPF in this draft and an area of need. Equally we could look at other players if we traded up to earlier pick.

The key point is our current picks are 9, 11, 43, 54, 67, 72, 87, 105.

Assuming we’re making three selections how do we maximise getting the best 3 players in this shallow draft with these picks - noting that Dean can be matched/obtained with multiple R2 picks, and trading up to # 5/6 opens the door to better players like Robey, Schubert etc. who are unlikely to be there at #11.

It’s all subjective but the option to select a player at 5 or 6, in theory should get you a better player than a selection at 11 imo.

 

[Bluebag13]

I just realised that Josh Lindsay on rookie.me power rankings moved from 10th to 15th August to September rankings.
Pretty interesting with the drop, obviously a couple of "bolters" that jumped him but also and maybe more interestingly that Farrow, Grlj, and Cummings, all jumped him

 

[dangertroy]

Low likelihood that we’d get both Schubert and Dean with picks 9 + 11. Rather than hope trading up gets us ahead of Melb and Essendon and would make it more certain of getting both Schubert and Dean.

eg.a trade with Essendon for their pick 5 and two R2 picks for our 9 and 11, gives us 5, 21, 27, 43, 54, 67, 72, 87, 105.

Pick 5 gets us Schubert, and the remaining picks Dean and Ison.

I don’t think they do that deal as they are losing value on the picks - we’re trading up so generally you would expect us to lose points. I think 6, 27 and 30 is more realistic, with 9, 11 and 43 to them. That way they maintain their first pick and get 4 firsts round picks overall. We get a pick before Dean, and probably enough points to match?

They also have a couple of NGAs in the 20-30 range, so they likely want late points for them - 43 might not add enough for them.

Then there’s the matter of list spots - my understanding is the picks only carry points going into the draft if you have the list spots open for them. However, as soon as the draft starts, you can start trading back and accumulate as many picks and points as you can. I’d say we go I with three live picks. Pick 54 is essentially worthless - only worth 9 points (although it will come in a bit), but not worth anything if we don’t have the list spot.

 

[Stamos]

I don’t think they do that deal as they are losing value on the picks - we’re trading up so generally you would expect us to lose points. I think 6, 27 and 30 is more realistic, with 9, 11 and 43 to them. That way they maintain their first pick and get 4 firsts round picks overall. We get a pick before Dean, and probably enough points to match?

They also have a couple of NGAs in the 20-30 range, so they likely want late points for them - 43 might not add enough for them.

Then there’s the matter of list spots - my understanding is the picks only carry points going into the draft if you have the list spots open for them. However, as soon as the draft starts, you can start trading back and accumulate as many picks and points as you can. I’d say we go I with three live picks. Pick 54 is essentially worthless - only worth 9 points (although it will come in a bit), but not worth anything if we don’t have the list spot.

The way to look at it would be that Essendon would be taking a small slide (6 to 9) with a big jump (27 to 11).
For the deal to really make sense for us, we need to be getting more points in the back end of the deal.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Schubert was mentioned as a player who’s probably the best KPF in this draft and an area of need. Equally we could look at other players if we traded up to earlier pick.

The key point is our current picks are 9, 11, 43, 54, 67, 72, 87, 105.

Assuming we’re making three selections how do we maximise getting the best 3 players in this shallow draft with these picks - noting that Dean can be matched/obtained with multiple R2 picks, and trading up to # 5/6 opens the door to better players like Robey, Schubert etc. who are unlikely to be there at #11.

It’s all subjective but the option to select a player at 5 or 6, in theory should get you a better player than a selection at 11 imo.

Imo we should only be spending the resources it would take to trade up on players that look like they could end up the top bracket in their position.

For me Schubert is a very nice player but doesn't have the same upside as for instance a Jed Walter or even Jobe Shanahan from recent years. Both of them had contested marking ability at the very top end for draftees.

I'd take him at 9 but I wouldn't trade up and use up what could be 2-3 first round picks to get ahead of the Dean bid. For me if Robey and Duursma are off the table at that pick I don't think it's worth the resources it would take to get there.