Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Matty411]

It's actually pretty funny when a couple of posters go hammer and tong on an opposition's board.

Personally, I hope Archie's goss is on the money. Reckon that trade is a win for both club's needs.

I think that kind of deal is great, except I'd rather * future first over Pick 6. They're going downhill fast and next year will likely be a better draft. Plus it gives us more ammo for Humphrey/Butters if we choose to go that way.

 

[Gingerbread man]

Is there somewhere to find out what happens with our draft picks and bids?
If we get a bid at 7, does that take 9 and a pick in the 30s or does it take 9 and push 11 back

 

[dangertroy]

The appeal for Essendon is they go from having 2 R1 picks 5, 6 and 21, 27 to three R1 picks 5, 9, 11.

Effectively losing #27 in the process but improving their hand with three picks in the first half of round 1.

Technically pick 21 is a first rounder still, so it’s still three first round picks - my initial scenario gives them a fourth. Not sure it actually makes sense for them though.

The way to look at it would be that Essendon would be taking a small slide (6 to 9) with a big jump (27 to 11).
For the deal to really make sense for us, we need to be getting more points in the back end of the deal.

That’s how I see it, plus maintaining 21 gives them an extra pick in the first round, meaningless as that really is in this draft.

Ideal scenario for both clubs is:
Carlton has a pick above Dean, plus still matches Dean and Ison. Pick 6, 21, 30 should do the job.

* take three high end picks (because that’s worked well for them before) and then match later bids on their ngas. 5,9,11, 27, 43, 54.

6,21,30 for 9, 11, 43, 54. Very slight points bump for us, but it’s a win for both parties. Still doubt they do it though given their stubbornness over Merrett.

And yes, I’m aware that’s a different deal to what I was talking about before. I’m unpredictable like that.

 

[Bletch]

Technically pick 21 is a first rounder still, so it’s still three first round picks - my initial scenario gives them a fourth. Not sure it actually makes sense for them though.



That’s how I see it, plus maintaining 21 gives them an extra pick in the first round, meaningless as that really is in this draft.

Ideal scenario for both clubs is:
Carlton has a pick above Dean, plus still matches Dean and Ison. Pick 6, 21, 30 should do the job.

* take three high end picks (because that’s worked well for them before) and then match later bids on their ngas. 5,9,11, 27, 43, 54.

6,21,30 for 9, 11, 43, 54. Very slight points bump for us, but it’s a win for both parties. Still doubt they do it though given their stubbornness over Merrett.

And yes, I’m aware that’s a different deal to what I was talking about before. I’m unpredictable like that.

21 and 30 are unlikely to be enough to match both Dean and Ison. It's possible we'd even go into deficit on the Dean match.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Technically pick 21 is a first rounder still, so it’s still three first round picks - my initial scenario gives them a fourth. Not sure it actually makes sense for them though.



That’s how I see it, plus maintaining 21 gives them an extra pick in the first round, meaningless as that really is in this draft.

Ideal scenario for both clubs is:
Carlton has a pick above Dean, plus still matches Dean and Ison. Pick 6, 21, 30 should do the job.

* take three high end picks (because that’s worked well for them before) and then match later bids on their ngas. 5,9,11, 27, 43, 54.

6,21,30 for 9, 11, 43, 54. Very slight points bump for us, but it’s a win for both parties. Still doubt they do it though given their stubbornness over Merrett.

And yes, I’m aware that’s a different deal to what I was talking about before. I’m unpredictable like that.

21 + 30 ain't gonna cut it for Dean + Ison.

I think if we want to trade up, Tigers are a good option.

4 + 38 + F2 for 9 + 11 + 27F1(Swans)

Then on trade their F2 to North for 26 + 48.

4 gets us Robey/Grlj/Lindsay

26 + 38 + 43 +54 ... should be enough to cover the bids especially when the later picks come down.

 

[Stamos]

Technically pick 21 is a first rounder still, so it’s still three first round picks - my initial scenario gives them a fourth. Not sure it actually makes sense for them though.



That’s how I see it, plus maintaining 21 gives them an extra pick in the first round, meaningless as that really is in this draft.

Ideal scenario for both clubs is:
Carlton has a pick above Dean, plus still matches Dean and Ison. Pick 6, 21, 30 should do the job.

* take three high end picks (because that’s worked well for them before) and then match later bids on their ngas. 5,9,11, 27, 43, 54.

6,21,30 for 9, 11, 43, 54. Very slight points bump for us, but it’s a win for both parties. Still doubt they do it though given their stubbornness over Merrett.

And yes, I’m aware that’s a different deal to what I was talking about before. I’m unpredictable like that.

There's no way we throw in 43 + 54.
The deal becomes pretty much useless for us.

 

[ctwenty1]

21 + 30 ain't gonna cut it for Dean + Ison.

I think if we want to trade up, Tigers are a good option.

4 + 38 + F2 for 9 + 11 + 27F1(Swans)

Then on trade their F2 to North for 26 + 48.

4 gets us Robey/Grlj/Lindsay

26 + 38 + 43 +54 ... should be enough to cover the bids especially when the later picks come down.

Depending on who we may be targetting to bring in next year, I would expect we may want to leave our future picks alone, unless its a part of a deal that still leaves us with the same number of future picks

What we have this year is more than enough for Dean and Ison and maybe there is someone else we pick, whether it be before Dean or after

If we are only taking Dean and Ison this year i expect we will try to trade 9 and 11 so w ehav enough points this year and additional picks next year

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Depending on who we may be targetting to bring in next year, I would expect we may want to leave our future picks alone, unless its a part of a deal that still leaves us with the same number of future picks

What we have this year is more than enough for Dean and Ison and maybe there is someone else we pick, whether it be before Dean or after

If we are only taking Dean and Ison this year i expect we will try to trade 9 and 11 so w ehav enough points this year and additional picks next year

Yeah I agree, we should be trying to turn 9 into a F1 and then split 11 for more points.

But if the club wants to trade up, then Tigers are a better option than Ess imo.

 

[Stamos]

But if the club wants to trade up, then Tigers are a better option than Ess imo.

A trade with Essendon would bring us more points to match Dean (and Ison)

 

[Blue_Fusion]

A trade with Essendon would bring us more points to match Dean (and Ison)

But the pick will be later... I'd imagine if we want to trade up, then we'd have a target and that target imo is Robey.

Not sure he's sliding to Essendon's pick 6 (which likely becomes 9).

 

[Stamos]

But the pick will be later... I'd imagine if we want to trade up, then we'd have a target and that target imo is Robey.

Not sure he's sliding to Essendon's pick 6 (which likely becomes 9).

Trading up could also be purely about getting ahead of the Dean bid, with a bonus few extra points.
It would essentially mean being able to take a player at 6 (9) instead of 11 (14).

 

[teagueyubeauty]

I’ve heard we are putting pressure on with a Dean bid to trade 6 plus seconds for 9 and 11. Probably a win win for both clubs but you’d think would happen live on the night so as to protect you from a Richmond bid before just in case.

If Tiges were smart they’d be doing the same for pick 4

 

[Uncle Fester]

If Tiges were smart they’d be doing the same for pick 4

its so hard to read - but you think CDT and Duursma will have already gone and richmond will be doing the hard work by bidding on uwland, annable & paterson (and chewing up Brisbane & GC's picks 15, 17, 18, 23, 24, 28, 29 and 36 and before every screams at me - if they go at 2, 4, 5 thats 5500 points needed post 10% discount and those picks add up to 5263...) - so it feels like they will grab the best 2 for them at that moment - robey and ?, where ? probably doesnt = dean

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Trading up could also be purely about getting ahead of the Dean bid, with a bonus few extra points.
It would essentially mean being able to take a player at 6 (9) instead of 11 (14).

It could, but I doubt it. I think if we're going to trade up, it will be for a player they want to target, just like last year.

 

[Pablito]

Would love if we got Dovaston or Lindsay if they fell later into the first round, doubt that happens though.

I reckon we need a key forward. Losing Harry and Lemmey means we're a bit light.

 

[Uncle Fester]

Is there somewhere to find out what happens with our draft picks and bids?
If we get a bid at 7, does that take 9 and a pick in the 30s or does it take 9 and push 11 back

im using a combo of these

AFL Trade News & Video - AFL.com.au

Keep up-to-date with the latest AFL trade news, rumours, player movements and list lodgement.

www.afl.com.au

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

and a spreadsheet ive built using some of the data to make it easy

 

[SurreyBlue]

im using a combo of these

AFL Trade News & Video - AFL.com.au

Keep up-to-date with the latest AFL trade news, rumours, player movements and list lodgement.

www.afl.com.au

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

and a spreadsheet ive built using some of the data to make it easy

This example of trading 9 & 11 doesn’t give us enough points to take a pick at 6, Dean and Ison. If we trade down, we need enough points for Dean at say 8-10 with the other picks moving back.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

Imo we should only be spending the resources it would take to trade up on players that look like they could end up the top bracket in their position.

For me is a very nice player but doesn't have the same upside as for instance a Jed Walter or even Jobe Shanahan from recent years. Both of them had contested marking ability at the very top end for draftees.

I'd take him at 9 but I wouldn't trade up and use up what could be 2-3 first round picks to get ahead of the Dean bid. For me if Robey and Duursma are off the table at that pick I don't think it's worth the resources it would take to get there.

If it's value for pick that we are worried about then I wouldn't even draft Schubert at 9. I'd be trying my luck next year. I have nothing against him but like a lot of the KPPs this year, he'd be more a strictly needs based acquisition. For me, we are rebuilding on the sly, we've traded in depth and now we need a small handfull od 'star quality' types to set us up.

 

[Gingerbread man]

im using a combo of these

AFL Trade News & Video - AFL.com.au

Keep up-to-date with the latest AFL trade news, rumours, player movements and list lodgement.

www.afl.com.au

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

and a spreadsheet ive built using some of the data to make it easy

Mate 100% appreciate what you have done.
But it's not really what I wanted.

It was more about if we don't trade our picks what will happen and what is required if the bids come before or after or inbetween

 

[Stamos]

This example of trading 9 & 11 doesn’t give us enough points to take a pick at 6, Dean and Ison. If we trade down, we need enough points for Dean at say 8-10 with the other picks moving back.

It depends.
There would be an assumption that Uwland, Paterson and Annable are bid on and matched before we would live-trade with Essendon (and obviously Dean not bid on).
So we would be getting 9, and probably 25 + 26 as those picks move.
25+26 can match a bid at 10, if Melbourne were to bid on Dean at their 1st pick.
If we got Essendon’s current 21 instead of 30, we would get 99 points after matching a bid at 10. If Dees don’t bid thill their 2nd pick (now 11), we would get 163 extra points.

But say it’s +99, to add to our later 2 picks which should come in by say 5 each, we could match a bid for Ison at 27 without going into deficit

 

[Stamos]

Mate 100% appreciate what you have done.
But it's not really what I wanted.

It was more about if we don't trade our picks what will happen and what is required if the bids come before or after or inbetween

If we hold our picks, and the bid for Dean comes at Melbourne’s first pick, we just match with our 1st, and our next pick is not affected.
If the bid doesn’t come until Hawthorn’s pick, then we would get about 50 extra points at the back end.

 

[No1Suspect]

We need to trade up, secure enough cannon fodder picks for Dean and Ison and trade out into next year.

We're going to need all the picks we can get next year for Walker and also to have a realistic chance at getting either Butters or Humphries.

The talent this year isnt screaming trade up higher to get me

 

[Stamos]

We need to trade up, secure enough cannon fodder picks for Dean and Ison and trade out into next year.

We can only do 2 of these things

 

[RattAttack]

Our midfield still needs work. We need run, speed and ball use.

I would take Grlj. Also like the look of the WA boy Farrow.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

We can only do 2 of these things

I think that was just badly worded.