Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Christou2Kouta]

I think that was just badly worded.

My interpretation of it was we trade with Essendon for example for their pick 6, and two picks in the 20s.
Then we trade that pick 6 for a future first and another pick in the 20s this year to help with matching bids for Dean and Ison. The idea being that a pick 6 might be more likely to prompt another club to trade their future 1st round pick to us.

Is that right?

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Sucks that we have to wait another month to see what we'll do.

Good thing is, we're in a strong position either way.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Warning: incoming post that is bordering on ridiculous.

First off, I'm extremely confident that WCE won't be bidding on Harry D.

So next comes the Tiggs who just delisted a 23yo key defender who showed promise, so not sure they're in the market for another. With players like Robey and Grlj likely still on the board, their focus will be elsewhere than a frivolous bid.

Over to Essendon who may consider bidding, but they have a couple of academy boys and a gun f/s coming up in 2027, so not sure if they want to piss people off. Karma can be an absolute bitch.

Which then brings us to the Demons. Now this is an interesting one where it the story becomes offbeat.

It all begins with Leek Aleer, who was for all intents was going to the Aints. So GWS in turn make a commitment to Jayden Laverde

15

Jayden Laverde

Age

29

Ht

193cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.8

3star

K

6.3

2star

HB

5.4

4star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.8

4star

MG

152.8

2star

D

8.8

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.8

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.5

3star

MG

116.5

2star

D

11.2

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

5.8

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

3.6

5star

MG

141.2

3star

as a back up key defender to cover the loss of Aleer. SOS subsequently reneges on the deal, Aleer re-signs with GWS, and they still honour their commitment to Laverde.

In turn, they're forced to delist Derkson because they've signed Aleer and Laverde. Now, we know that the Demons have been keen on Derkson for a while, but 'lost interest' probably due to other priorities and the fact that GWS were planning on hanging onto him. So suddenly he's a free hit, and no doubt the Demons would be getting a chub again with the possibility of getting him this time for nothing.

Classical domino effect.

Which brings us to the conclusion that if the Demons sign Derkson as a DFA, their priorities will then be elsewhere (ie midfielders) - rather than bringing in another key defender aka Harry Dean.

Just a long winded way of saying that if the Demons grab Derkson, Dean won't be bid on before pick 9. Possibly.

I need a holiday.

 

[No1Suspect]

We can only do 2 of these things

Depends how high we can get and what someones willing to give up i guess.

 

[Blue and Silver]

I think Derksen might feel some ways about being courted for almost 24 months and then being dropped.

I think it's a little less egregious than the Saints, but still I imagine he might be less keen on them then a month ago

 

[BlueTongue]

Warning: incoming post that is bordering on ridiculous.

First off, I'm extremely confident that WCE won't be bidding on Harry D.

So next comes the Tiggs who just delisted a 23yo key defender who showed promise, so not sure they're in the market for another. With players like Robey and Grlj likely still on the board, their focus will be elsewhere than a frivolous bid.

I assume the opposite - they are now short of Defenders due to said 23yo and retirement of Kamdyn McIntosh

Over to Essendon who may consider bidding, but they have a couple of academy boys and a gun f/s coming up in 2027, so not sure if they want to piss people off. Karma can be an absolute bitch.

Again, the counter to that is, they have a few good defenders and have just lost 2 Ruckmen. They won't be looking for a young ruckman with Top 10 Draft pick, but they may be after another KPF should 2m-Peter have to Ruck more, and maybe a another mid to develop if Merrett raises his head again in 12 months.

Which then brings us to the Demons. Now this is an interesting one where it the story becomes offbeat.

It all begins with Leek Aleer, who was for all intents was going to the Aints. So GWS in turn make a commitment to Jayden Laverde as a back up key defender to cover the loss of Aleer. SOS subsequently reneges on the deal, Aleer re-signs with GWS, and they still honour their commitment to Laverde.

In turn, they're forced to delist Derkson because they've signed Aleer and Laverde. Now, we know that the Demons have been keen on Derkson for a while, but 'lost interest' probably due to other priorities and the fact that GWS were planning on hanging onto him. So suddenly he's a free hit, and no doubt the Demons would be getting a chub again with the possibility of getting him this time for nothing.

Classical domino effect.

Which brings us to the conclusion that if the Demons sign Derkson as a DFA, their priorities will then be elsewhere (ie midfielders) - rather than bringing in another key defender aka Harry Dean.

Just a long winded way of saying that if the Demons grab Derkson, Dean won't be bid on before pick 9. Possibly.

I need a holiday.

Also, May hasn't been picked up and Lever is still there, so I assume no movement from Dees for another year.
Co-incidently, had we have signed May for 12-24 months, we may have done ourselves a mischief with Dean.

 

[Stamos]

Depends how high we can get and what someones willing to give up i guess.

Do you mean to trade up and then trade that pick out? Which is still really only 2 of those things because you wouldn’t be keeping the higher pick.
And that would seem to be an inefficient way of trading, because we’d have to lose points currency to get up. Would be better off trading one of our 1sts for a F1 and hopefully a little bonus, and trade our other one down for points.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

It takes us out of any chance of using another first round pick, no matter how we intend on using it this year or trading it out for a future first round pick…
Understanding that they have every right to do as they please when nominating a draftee, that’s the way it’s tactically played at times…

I wouldn't rule out some sort of "threat" from ess but I doubt it.

I suspect Dean slides out of the top 10. If he was open to all clubs he'd probably be in the 8-12 range. But clubs don't waste time doing due diligence on F/S kids so they almost always slide.

Even Naicos slid to #4 despite being rated #1 all year.

Levi Ashcroft slid to #5 last year was rated #1 all year. The Camporeales were way better than 54 and 43. Gulden was rated 15 and slid to 30+.

Yes the dees did some sh!thousery last year with Kako but that's not common practice.

Either way we're in a pretty strong position.

 

[Uncle Fester]

Mate 100% appreciate what you have done.
But it's not really what I wanted.

It was more about if we don't trade our picks what will happen and what is required if the bids come before or after or inbetween

I’m thinking exactly the same. Will try to do the numbers tomorrow. Feel free to post your suggestions on where the dean and ison bids come. Im thinking 8 and 25 are safe

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Are we not the least bit concerned in giving up a top 10 pick for a key defender that is only 193cm tall?

193cm is tall enough if you're good enough. Same height as Steven May.

Setting aside the fact that he could be taller than that now (he was already 193cm at the start of this year). I read somewhere he was 195cm which is Weiters height.

O'Farrell is taller than I thought at 197cm. Could be anything if he fills out physically.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Warning: incoming post that is bordering on ridiculous.

First off, I'm extremely confident that WCE won't be bidding on Harry D.

So next comes the Tiggs who just delisted a 23yo key defender who showed promise, so not sure they're in the market for another. With players like Robey and Grlj likely still on the board, their focus will be elsewhere than a frivolous bid.

Over to Essendon who may consider bidding, but they have a couple of academy boys and a gun f/s coming up in 2027, so not sure if they want to piss people off. Karma can be an absolute bitch.

Which then brings us to the Demons. Now this is an interesting one where it the story becomes offbeat.

It all begins with Leek Aleer, who was for all intents was going to the Aints. So GWS in turn make a commitment to Jayden Laverde as a back up key defender to cover the loss of Aleer. SOS subsequently reneges on the deal, Aleer re-signs with GWS, and they still honour their commitment to Laverde.

In turn, they're forced to delist Derkson because they've signed Aleer and Laverde. Now, we know that the Demons have been keen on Derkson for a while, but 'lost interest' probably due to other priorities and the fact that GWS were planning on hanging onto him. So suddenly he's a free hit, and no doubt the Demons would be getting a chub again with the possibility of getting him this time for nothing.

Classical domino effect.

Which brings us to the conclusion that if the Demons sign Derkson as a DFA, their priorities will then be elsewhere (ie midfielders) - rather than bringing in another key defender aka Harry Dean.

Just a long winded way of saying that if the Demons grab Derkson, Dean won't be bid on before pick 9. Possibly.

I need a holiday.

Not to disparage your hard work but I don't think any of that really matters. They'd all know we're taking Dean so the bidding part is just to keep us honest.

The dees for example won't not bid on Dean because they've got Derkson lined up.

That's irrelevant.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

I assume the opposite - they are now short of Defenders due to said 23yo and retirement of Kamdyn McIntosh

KM never played in defense. He played wing.

 

[BlueTongue]

I’m thinking exactly the same. Will try to do the numbers tomorrow. Feel free to post your suggestions on where the dean and ison bids come. Im thinking 8 and 25 are safe

My dilemma is that if Dean makes it to our Pick 9 without a bid, will we use it on him, or Run the Gauntlet that Hawks wont use Pick 10 on him and we take him with 11.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Not to disparage your hard work but I don't think any of that really matters. They'd all know we're taking Dean so the bidding part is just to keep us honest.

The dees for example won't not bid on Dean because they've got Derkson lined up.

That's irrelevant.

Thank you.

You're probably right, which is why pick 9 will likely be gone before the Dean bid.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Our midfield still needs work. We need run, speed and ball use.

I would take Grlj. Also like the look of the WA boy Farrow.

If Farrow is rated at #12 it can't be that weak of a draft. Disposal looks outstanding.

I hear Rich are keen on Grlj?

 

[GT619]

If Farrow is rated at #12 it can't be that weak of a draft. Disposal looks outstanding.

I hear Rich are keen on Grlj?

I watched him now, disposal on point

 

[GoBlues!]

My dilemma is that if Dean makes it to our Pick 9 without a bid, will we use it on him, or Run the Gauntlet that Hawks wont use Pick 10 on him and we take him with 11.

What’s the dilemma BT?

If there’s no early bid on Dean we will use #9 on the best available player.

It doesn’t matter if the Hawks bid on Dean at pick 10, we use #11 which will easily match the bid after you apply the 10% discount to #10 points value.

If Hawks don’t bid, we still end up using use #11 on Dean.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

I watched him now, disposal on point

I'd prioritize him above all others in our range then.

How about a new rule for our recruiting team: No more spuds who cannot kick the ball better than your average suburban U13s.

Look at the disposal of Brisbane in the last 2 GFs - and the past few years - they have this one-wood they can just go to whenever they like and that's to not lose the ball in dangerous positions and use it well going inside 50.

Their kicking for goal aint great on occasions but the field kicking gives them so many good looks at goal they often get away with it.

 

[Sheephead]

Hate to be a killjoy, but I absolutely believe a bid for Dean will come very early, probably Richmond. He’s the best rated defender in the draft, why wouldn’t they. They’ve just delisted two, traded one and already leak from the back half. We’ll match obviously and then they’ll take Taylor as a similar type.

The bid will consume what is currently 9 and a large chunk of 11, pushing us back to late 1st early 2nd due to points left over. It’s here we hope no-one bids on Ison prior to that pick and we can select a solid prospect. Getting Ison isn’t an issue, clubs have around 1100 point deficits available to match if needed and we still have about 160 points in the back pocket.

If a club bids on Ison late 1st early 2nd before that affected pick, I think we’lll simply match and do a later trade to move up for our third hit at the draft OR we’ll take a chance on a Blight or similar type.

If we kept that 2nd pick - I like Oskar Taylor from Eastern on a HBF/Wing. Also, Emmett would be a pretty solid TDK replacement. Thredgold (props to NINJA WORRIER)is a natural footballer out of the backline. Nairn has some good smarts up forward. And if he fell, Dovastan has that Wizard/Tiprat feel about him.

 

[BlackGoanna]

I’ve mentioned before and run the various scenarios. Our best option is to slide pick 11 back to pick 12,13 or 14 and pick up extra draft points which may be needed to match ISON. Currently will have a deficit inside first 27 picks which is a risk.

Forget this trading up talk it won’t work.

We go to the draft knowing we have enough points for Ison and see where the Dean bid lands. Best case he is not bid on before our 1st pick and we select another player with that pick and get Dean with the next pick. Or Dean is bid on early and the pick slides into the later teens.

 

[Stamos]

Forget this trading up talk it won’t work.

It could work with Essendon, and we would get extra points.

Agree we should forget about trading higher up with West Coast or Tiges.

 

[BlackGoanna]

It could work with Essendon, and we would get extra points.

Agree we should forget about trading higher up with West Coast or Tiges.

Yes we could get extra points overall but would have less points to deal with Dean and ison, particularly if the bids come in early

 

[Polo]

Mate 100% appreciate what you have done.
But it's not really what I wanted.

It was more about if we don't trade our picks what will happen and what is required if the bids come before or after or inbetween

I wrote this post last week in the academy / next gen thread, it may be what you're looking for? The exercise didn't cover a bid on Ison but there is discussion later in the thread about it.

I apologise if something similar has been posted already and I've missed it but I was bored so have made a table with data on what a bid on Dean at each pick would cost us (if my math is right) in the theoretical case we didn't trade and kept our current picks 9, 11 and 43 through the draft, along with what would happen if/when 1-3 academy bids came in before the Dean bid.

In an interesting quirk, we'd be better off if a bid came in between our first two picks rather than picking him with our own second as we'd get a later pick back which would then come in as other clubs spend multiple picks to match bids after Dean.

Pick​	Points​	Bid Match​	0 Academy Bids​	1 Academy Bid​	2 Academy Bids​	3 Academy Bids​
1​	3000​	2700​	Picks 9, 11, 43 + pick 52 back​	​	​	​
2​	2481​	2232​	Picks 9, 11 + pick 36 back​	Picks 10, 12 + pick 43 back​	​	​
3​	2178​	1960​	Picks 9, 11 + pick 25 back​	Picks 10, 12 + pick 30 back​	Picks 11, 13 + pick 36 back​	​
4​	1962​	1765​	Picks 9, 11 + pick 20 back​	Picks 10, 12 + pick 24 back​	Picks 11, 13 + pick 28 back​	Picks 12, 14 + pick 33 back​
5​	1795​	1615​	Picks 9, 11 + pick 16 back​	Picks 10, 12 + pick 19 back​	Picks 11, 13 + pick 23 back​	Picks 12, 14 + pick 27 back​
6​	1659​	1493​	Picks 9, 11 + pick 14 back​	Picks 10, 12 + pick 17 back​	Picks 11, 13 + pick 20 back​	Picks 12, 14 + pick 23 back​
7​	1543​	1388​	Picks 9, 11 + pick 12 back​	Picks 10, 12 + pick 14 back​	Picks 11, 13 + pick 17 back​	Picks 12, 14 + pick 20 back​
8​	1443​	1298​	Pick 9 + pick 51 back​	Picks 10, 12 + pick 13 back​	Picks 11, 13 + pick 15 back​	Picks 12, 14 + pick 17 back​
9​	1355​	1219​	Pick 9​	Pick 10 + pick 51 back​	Picks 11, 13 + pick 14 back​	Picks 12, 14 + pick 16 back​
10​	1276​	1148​	Pick 11 + pick 51 back​	Pick 10​	Pick 11 + pick 51 back​	Picks 12 + 14 + pick 15 back​
11​	1205​	1084​	Pick 11​	Pick 12 + pick 52 back​	Pick 11​	Pick 12 + pick 52 back​
12​	1140​	1026​	​	Pick 12​	Pick 13 + pick 52 back​	Pick 12​
13​	1080​	972​	​	​	Pick 13​	Pick 14 + pick 52 back​
14​	1024​	921​	​	​	​	Pick 14​

 

[Gingerbread man]

I’m thinking exactly the same. Will try to do the numbers tomorrow. Feel free to post your suggestions on where the dean and ison bids come. Im thinking 8 and 25 are safe

I honestly don't know, they say picks 5 to 15 is even. F & S tend to drift a little and intercept defenders are not rare so hopefully we won't have a bid before 10. Ison I have no idea

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

I wouldn't rule out some sort of "threat" from ess but I doubt it.

I suspect Dean slides out of the top 10. If he was open to all clubs he'd probably be in the 8-12 range. But clubs don't waste time doing due diligence on F/S kids so they almost always slide.

Even Naicos slid to #4 despite being rated #1 all year.

Levi Ashcroft slid to #5 last year was rated #1 all year. The Camporeales were way better than 54 and 43. Gulden was rated 15 and slid to 30+.

Yes the dees did some sh!thousery last year with Kako but that's not common practice.

Either way we're in a pretty strong position.

I think that he’ll get to Melbourne and the Dee’s will bid on him, being directly before us we shouldn’t slide back too far with our next first round pick…
Being a weaker and unpredictable draft than usual, the usual slide of FS and ACD picks may differ a bit this year from the norm of other drafts…