Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Doubt many would be 'happy' with that option as they'd be hoping we'd be able to do more with our picks.

But if that's the worst case scenario and we can't find a favourable pick swap to get a pick ahead of a Dean bid, it's certainly far from a disastrous outcome.

Why wouldn't people be happy with those outcomes?

It's fine to say some would be hoping we could do more, but if no other clubs come to the party what else can we do with those picks? Offer overs? I wonder how many would be happy with that...

Just pointing out that even a "worst case" scenario is still something that most should be happy with here.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Just watched Pommy on BA. He's said his dream scenario is Dean and Lindsay with our first 2 picks. What are the chances of this actually happening?

It's a pretty good chance if we want it to. I'd imagine that no bid for Dean by the time we get to our first pick and this is where we'd take Lindsay. Then use whatever 11 ends up being to draft Dean (or pay for a bid)

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I think Richmond would take greater pleasure in bidding on thyGCS and Lions Academy players before a bid on Dean.

Rich bid could come in at pick 6 or 7, otherwise Essendon will be waiting at 8 or 9.

If Richmond don't take X.Taylor, I'm pretty sure Ess will. With two consecutive picks, even if they intend on bidding to "keep us honest" they'd do it with their second pick rather than play games that could come back to bite them.

I still doubt they even will tbh... you look at their key back stocks, McKay, Reid, Ridley, Blakiston it will be purely games if they bid on Dean... again, something they'd be wise not to do given the stocks they have coming through in the coming years... acting in bad faith will not go unnoticed by the other clubs.

 

[BlueTongue]

They haven't addressed their mids... this is why I think Grlj is a player they'll take... they need that outside, explosive speed he provides.

Their back stocks are fine with Miller, Balta, Gibcus, Gray... they just delisted Blight and traded Young.

They'd want to look at a Vlastuin replacement too...so Taylor a chance as well.

They got Lalor (Mid/Fwd), Smillie (Mid) & Hotton (Fwd/Mid).
I can see Taylor going to them but with all the Academy players he may get picked up by WCE.
Who knows really, one of the least certain drafts in a while (which is kinda good).

 

[Blue_Fusion]

They got Lalor (Mid/Fwd), Smillie (Mid) & Hotton (Fwd/Mid).
I can see Taylor going to them but with all the Academy players he may get picked up by WCE.
Who knows really, one of the least certain drafts in a while (which is kinda good).

Lalor is more of a power mid/fwd, he still lacks endurance.
Smillie is a big bodied brute
Hotton is a live wire

Grlj would add that endurance, line breaking speedster on the outside that they need.

You're right that it is a really hard draft to predict though

 

[BlueTongue]

Lalor is more of a power mid/fwd, he still lacks endurance.
Smillie is a big bodied brute
Hotton is a live wire

Grlj would add that endurance, line breaking speedster on the outside that they need.

You're right that it is a really hard draft to predict though

So One thing is clear - Father/Sons have been shafted by the AFL, despite them only showing up once in several years for most clubs, yet the Academy players are getting more and more talented and regularly in the top bids, and the Northern clubs are sitting back and laughing.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Why wouldn't people be happy with those outcomes?

It's fine to say some would be hoping we could do more, but if no other clubs come to the party what else can we do with those picks? Offer overs? I wonder how many would be happy with that...

Just pointing out that even a "worst case" scenario is still something that most should be happy with here.

People were pissed that we got 3 First Rounders and a player for Charlie.

They're not an easy crowd to please

 

[GoBlues!]

People were pissed that we got 3 First Rounders and a player for Charlie.

They're not an easy crowd to please

Thanks Robbie D’Orazio….

 

[GT619]

Just watched Pommy on BA. He's said his dream scenario is Dean and Lindsay with our first 2 picks. What are the chances of this actually happening?

strong chance

 

[GT619]

People were pissed that we got 3 First Rounders and a player for Charlie.

They're not an easy crowd to please

which people

 

[Jimmae]

Just watched Pommy on BA. He's said his dream scenario is Dean and Lindsay with our first 2 picks. What are the chances of this actually happening?

I'd say that's a low risk outcome, but you'd expect us to do better. Linsday is in that 14-20 range because his game doesn't seem set to translate to midfield and he's not breaking lines despite excellent footskills.

Same sort of thinking as last year's Lindsay that Melbourne took fairly early... he really should be sitting in defence.

 

[Keystone agony]

If the trade were for 21 and 27 (assuming they become 22 and 25 by the time of the bid), it would actually by more points. That’s the equivalent of pick 10 for our 2nd pick, rather than 14 if we hold our picks, plus the higher choice of player at 6 (9).

Id think this would have to be live, as its too risky with a potential Dean bid in top 5

As it would be 21 and 25 at the time of bid and allowing a pick before Dean bid, id want probably your F2 included in the deal

Id assume at 6 (9) youd probably take Schubert as a replacment for Curnow and lack of quality tall fwds

Would be happy not to bid on 12 or 14 aswell of course, if he somehow gets that far

 

[circusdevil]

Why wouldn't people be happy with those outcomes?

It's fine to say some would be hoping we could do more, but if no other clubs come to the party what else can we do with those picks? Offer overs? I wonder how many would be happy with that...

Just pointing out that even a "worst case" scenario is still something that most should be happy with here.

Why? Because it means that we get no benefit from this years portion of the bounty from trading Curnow. It's great to say we got extra first rounders for the next 3 drafts but it appears no one wants to trade into this draft (or out of next years when we would be wanting to move our 2027 pick in) so it has somewhat diluted the picks in the Curnow deal in my eyes.

 

[DEESNUTSRBIG]

What if Melbourne trade Pick 37 + Suns 2026 R1 pick (12-18 range) to Carlton for Pick 9.

Twobitmey said (Dean will be bid on before Carltons pick for sure) Carlton are open to moving 9 or 11 or just matching the bid for Dean and having the other pick moved back to a mid to late pick in the teens. An extra 1st next year for Carlton would give them 3 1sts (needing 2 R1 picks to match for Walker)

Be funny if Melbourne had Pick 7, 8, 9 in this years draft.

 

[Coona Blues]

If Richmond don't take X.Taylor, I'm pretty sure Ess will. With two consecutive picks, even if they intend on bidding to "keep us honest" they'd do it with their second pick rather than play games that could come back to bite them.

I still doubt they even will tbh... you look at their key back stocks, McKay, Reid, Ridley, Blakiston it will be purely games if they bid on Dean... again, something they'd be wise not to do given the stocks they have coming through in the coming years... acting in bad faith will not go unnoticed by the other clubs.

…and Lewis Hayes. They are plenty stocked for KPD types. Surely their midfield has to be a priority.

The scaremongering about bids is over the top.

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

Sully Robey wants to be a blue …..


(I live a boring life )

 

[Revenant1995]

View attachment 2463177

Sully Robey wants to be a blue …..


(I live a boring life )

When I see that I think, doesn't that look great as gen-next. However, I think our draft strategy might be different...

 

[BlueAbroad]

 

[Blue_Fusion]

People were pissed that we got 3 First Rounders and a player for Charlie.

They're not an easy crowd to please

The uninformed who wanted Gulden or Butters?

Most on here know we got a good deal and were happy...

 

[Blue__Balls]

Why wouldn't people be happy with those outcomes?

It's fine to say some would be hoping we could do more, but if no other clubs come to the party what else can we do with those picks? Offer overs? I wonder how many would be happy with that...

Just pointing out that even a "worst case" scenario is still something that most should be happy with here.

How many trade/draft periods have you seen here on BF?

Surely enough to know that even if every other club publicly stated they had no intention of trading any picks, there would be a dozen or more posters here who would wax lyrical about Carlton's failure to trade with Club A for Pick X which in turn would allow Pick X to be sent to Club B for Picks Y and Z which we could then have used to draft two specific players that a random internet peasant rates in the top 10 (based on their extensive Youtube assessment) and will conveniently forget they ever mentioned 3 years later when they get delisted by whichever club took a punt on them in the second round.

 

[Doro]

People were pissed that we got 3 First Rounders and a player for Charlie.

They're not an easy crowd to please

The point raised was that the value of Hayward equates with the 3 second round picks we gave back (31,42,27f2). That makes the deal the same as the Cats offer of 3 firsts , obviously a better pick from the Swans this year. I wouldn't be putting money on the Cats finishing higher than the Swans in the next 2 years though.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

How many trade/draft periods have you seen here on BF?

Surely enough to know that even if every other club publicly stated they had no intention of trading any picks, there would be a dozen or more posters here who would wax lyrical about Carlton's failure to trade with Club A for Pick X which in turn would allow Pick X to be sent to Club B for Picks Y and Z which we could then have used to draft two specific players that a random internet peasant rates in the top 10 (based on their extensive Youtube assessment) and will conveniently forget they ever mentioned 3 years later when they get delisted by whichever club took a punt on them in the second round.

It's gone from a simple question about a possible scenario to I should know by now they're still be some that whinge no matter what....

Well yeah, obviously, just like trade period there will be some, let's just say there are people on here that are knowledgeable about the kids I mentioned and would value their opinion...

 

[Blue__Balls]

It's gone from a simple question about a possible scenario to I should know by now they're still be some that whinge no matter what....

Well yeah, obviously, just like trade period there will be some, let's just say there are people on here that are knowledgeable about the kids I mentioned and would value their opinion...

Oh, I'm not having a dig or anything, was firmly tongue in cheek re: the ridiculous negativity that can prevail here at times.

Will we do the "boring" thing and use 9 to match the Dean bid, pick up Dovaston with whatever our pick 11 becomes and then get Ison with remaining points would we be happy with that?

I think if no Dean bid comes by our first pick, we take Lindsay, use 11 to get Dean + Ison.

I think either of these outcomes are perfectly fine, myself.

With the draft hand we have, our prior commitment to two draftees via F/S and NGA, and the necessity around maintaining a strong draft hand next year to navigate whatever challenges pop up re: Walker and potentially someone like Butters if we wanted to make a play there - the expectation should be that we're getting Dean + Ison + one other.

Most likely, that one other addresses a genuine list need.

Key back will already be addressed long term with Dean and HOF, and short term it's not being addressed with a first rounder in the draft. HFF (aka mid/forward connectivity) well covered with the acquisition of Hayward and Ainsworth, plus the drafting of Ison for the longer term. Wing/HBF options covered with the acquisition of Florent and Chesser.

Leaves a few options:
- developing key forward - dependent on the assessment of HOK and Reidy
- aggressive small forward - I think the most pressing need for the current state of the game
- burst mid - Walker on the horizon, Jagga not "burst" but very slippery, still think there's an opportunity to target midfield pace

The positioning of the bid for Dean will have a massive say in who is still available by the time we're on the clock, but I think as long as one of Schubert, Dovaston and Grlj is available we'd take whichever we rate highest (on talent, or on an assessment of needs or availability of alternatives next year). If they're all gone, then I think we probably take a "best available user" approach and hope for one of Lindsay or Farrow - even if they add to a HBF logjam, they're just good users of the pill and you can always find ways to add those to your team. Farrow, in particular, is one I think we might even take ahead of the "needs" names, like Cowan I think he's just one of those damn good footballers that offer consistency and versatility.

 

[The Smoking Gun]

Just watched Pommy on BA. He's said his dream scenario is Dean and Lindsay with our first 2 picks. What are the chances of this actually happening?

I think we have enough HBFs already. Lindsay, while a beautiful kick is somewhat one-paced. We only have one genuine KPF and should he suffer another mental conniption or be injured we're cactus-stuffus.

People were pissed that we got 3 First Rounders and a player for Charlie.

They're not an easy crowd to please

It's really hard to say how good a deal this was, because

• Does being able to trade Picks from 2 years in advance means clubs can demand more, and get it, for any given player than they could've a year ago??? My suspicion is that players will cost a lot more (in picks) than they ever have going forward. Tradeflation.
• A 1st Rounder in 2027, by the time I allow for Tassie Selections, NGAs, FS & Academy selections could push the 1st Round all the way out to Pick 35 or potentially further. So how much is that 2027 1st Rounder really worth??? Asking for a friend.

FWIW, I've spoken to two former players and we're expected to take Picks 9 & 11 into the draft as is and use 3 selections in total. Make of that what you will.

 

[Stamos]

Does being able to trade Picks from 2 years in advance means clubs can demand more, and get it, for any given player than they could've a year ago??? My suspicion is that players will cost a lot more (in picks) than they ever have going forward. Tradeflation.

Yes

FWIW, I've spoken to two former players and we're expected to take Picks 9 & 11 into the draft as is and use 3 selections in total. Make of that what you will.

Certainly seems the most likely option at the moment.