Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[AT97]

AFL Draft: The two-club tussle that could see rival swoop in to secure small forward prospect

One club could be left in an “interesting position” toward the end of night one of this year’s draft.

www.zerohanger.com

Sounds like Pickett and Dovaston are two we're targeting.

Surely we wouldn’t limit ourselves to solely small forwards - even if it is a need along with another developing tall imo. There has to be a plan outside of this we are keeping close to our chest.

 

[branedotorg]

Surely we wouldn’t limit ourselves to solely small forwards - even if it is a need along with another developing tall imo. There has to be a plan outside of this we are keeping close to our chest.

I wouldn't be looking at any small forwards, we need to start succession planning for McKay - even if HOF and HOK end up being CHF and FF eventually I'd be looking at one of the 15-20 rated tall forwards

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I wouldn't be looking at any small forwards, we need to start succession planning for McKay - even if HOF and HOK end up being CHF and FF eventually I'd be looking at one of the 15-20 rated tall forwards

Going to be hard to get a quality tall fwd prospect with our academy and father son prospects over the next couple of years unfortunately.

Would love Schubert but can't see him sliding.

Next year's crop has some seriously talented KPP but will be extraordinarily difficult to acquire one with Cody up the top.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

We don't need a top of the range kpf.

Been saying for about 10 years, a mix of gun medium and small forwards that can rotate in the middle is the way to go...

This is where losing Lij really hurts.

Having him in there with Moir, Ainsworth, Hayward... that's actually a really exciting prospect. Harry will be playing for about another 4 years if he doesn't cop too many more head knocks. Having guys like HOK, Kemp and another project style kpf will do just fine imo.

Another reason why I'm leaning more and more toward Dovaston as a great pick up for us this year... we can't pin our hopes on Motlop, White, F.Young, Fogarty, Evans, 32yr old Williams etc.

Would be a dream scenario to be able to get another early first for next year... little Neo or Butler would be amazing to add to picking up Cody...

 

[JJBagger]

Going to be hard to get a quality tall fwd prospect with our academy and father son prospects over the next couple of years unfortunately.

Would love Schubert but can't see him sliding.

Next year's crop has some seriously talented KPP but will be extraordinarily difficult to acquire one with Cody up the top.

Schubert is the only one worst persisting with imo. Even then, if we do draft him, there will still be a hole at small forward - so it doesn’t really make a huge difference in that sense

 

[GoBlues!]

I like the look of Blake Oudshoorn-Bennier, seems to be a good user of ball and link player between the arcs.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I like the look of Blake Oudshoorn-Bennier, seems to be a good user of ball.

Good user of the ball and a very good runner. Bit like Cunners in that he's a bit of a low accumulator despite using it very well when he has it.

I think he'll land right around the Ison bid mark so can't see us ending up with him unfortunately.

 

[TENACIOUS]

We’re in a tough spot. Highly doubt Ison makes it to a late 30s pick.

Could we trade pick 2027 F1, with Essendon (need FS Points) for pick 27 and a guarantee not to bid on Dean?

Picks 9, 11, 27, 43, 54, 67

Pick 7
Melbourne - Bid Pick 7 Dean
Carlton Match - Pick 9 & 11
Carlton Receive - Dean and Pick 12

Pick 12
Draft Slider
Shubert
Pickett
Marsh

Pick 21-27
Ison

Pick 43-67
Pick a slider
Upgrade Lord

Rookie
Pass or best available

LTI - O’Farell
SSP - Hollands

 

[Bletch]

We’re in a tough spot. Highly doubt Ison makes it to a late 30s pick.

Could we trade pick 2027 F1, with Essendon (need FS Points) for pick 27 and a guarantee not to bid on Dean?

Picks 9, 11, 27, 43, 54, 67

Pick 7
Melbourne - Bid Pick 7 Dean
Carlton Match - Pick 9 & 11
Carlton Receive - Dean and Pick 12

Pick 12
Draft Slider
Shubert
Pickett
Marsh

Pick 21-27
Ison

Pick 43-67
Pick a slider
Upgrade Lord

Rookie
Pass or best available

LTI - O’Farell
SSP - Hollands

We're not taking that many picks to the draft. At the moment, we've got 4 live picks. Even if the trade is done live, we'd still not have 67 in that list.

I know 2027 draft is likely to be compromised by Tassie, but a first round pick (either Sydney's or ours) is still worth more than pick 27.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

We’re in a tough spot. Highly doubt Ison makes it to a late 30s pick.

Could we trade pick 2027 F1, with Essendon (need FS Points) for pick 27 and a guarantee not to bid on Dean?

Picks 9, 11, 27, 43, 54, 67

Pick 7
Melbourne - Bid Pick 7 Dean
Carlton Match - Pick 9 & 11
Carlton Receive - Dean and Pick 12

Pick 12
Draft Slider
Shubert
Pickett
Marsh

Pick 21-27
Ison

Pick 43-67
Pick a slider
Upgrade Lord

Rookie
Pass or best available

LTI - O’Farell
SSP - Hollands

Melbourne won't have pick 7 in the live draft... they're likely to bid with pick 11 if Dean is still there at their picks...

I'm not keen on giving up a 27F1 just for points this year.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

AFL Draft: The two-club tussle that could see rival swoop in to secure small forward prospect

One club could be left in an “interesting position” toward the end of night one of this year’s draft.

www.zerohanger.com

Sounds like Pickett and Dovaston are two we're targeting.

Dumb club, if true.

 

[Stamos]

Dumb club, if true.

Which part?

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Which part?

The part where they don't pick who paf wants off YouTube vision

 

[beowulf]

Dumb club, if true.

I think both clubs will have plans for whatever happens. If we want Dovaston, we must be prepared for the cost.

To be honest, this sort of thing happens often. I think the worst case in our history was when Kris Massie unexpectantly was picked up by Adelaide (even if he was a Collingwood fanatic). We were at 6's and 7's and went for guy who dropped a little, Kane Lucas. Anyone with any brains would have selected a key defender, but we were very unprofessional in those days.

 

[MileHigh]

I'd rather us play it safe and trade out pick 9 for a future first early, wait for the Dean bid and use pick 11, then try and trade back into the draft if there is a player on the board we like. There's no guarantee if we trade up we beat the bid.

 

[marcmurphy3]

I'd rather us play it safe and trade out pick 9 for a future first early, wait for the Dean bid and use pick 11, then try and trade back into the draft if there is a player on the board we like. There's no guarantee if we trade up we beat the bid.

Yeah, I think thats always been the most logical approach.

 

[GT619]

Which part?

all of it he doesn't like

 

[Jimmae]

I think both clubs will have plans for whatever happens. If we want Dovaston, we must be prepared for the cost.

To be honest, this sort of thing happens often. I think the worst case in our history was when Kris Massie unexpectantly was picked up by Adelaide (even if he was a Collingwood fanatic). We were at 6's and 7's and went for guy who dropped a little, Kane Lucas. Anyone with any brains would have selected a key defender, but we were very unprofessional in those days.

You're muddling different decades there, was Daniel Talia who slid and we overlooked in favour of Lucas because we thought we needed a mid.

For the '97 draft where we drafted Massie though, it was Tarrant and Chad Cornes right after.

Anyway, we better ****ing trade up

 

[BluesForEternity]

A lot of talk that Essendon really want CDT and that the Eagles want a bit more of a spread of high picks. Been having fun imagining more three way trade scenarios and came up with this one:

WCE
Out: 2, 13, 41, FF2, FF3
In: 5, 9, 11

Essendon
Out: 5, 21
In: 2

Carlton
Out: 9, 11
In: 13, 21, 41, FF2, FF3

Outcome for each team:

Eagles: go into draft with 1, 5, 9, 11, and 34 - enough for four good first round picks, plus a pick to match an NGA or F/S. Main cost is future picks in 2027 - but it’s the Tassie draft so they hold less value.

Essendon: go into draft with CDT for minimal cost. Still get another top 10 pick, and have 27 and 30 to match NGAs (which should be more than enough).

Carlton: consolidate points for Dean and Ison, creating zero risk of not matching them. Gain some extra draft currency for the future. It’s not the same as getting an extra 2026 first, but I’m struggling to think of scenarios where clubs are genuinely willing to deal one to us that don’t screw us over for 2025. That, and I do think we could package up lots of 2027 picks together to nab another 2026 first (and having two extra 2027 picks from West Coast would ideally help with that).

I feel like this is a genuinely good deal for everyone. Ready to be shot down!

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Depending on where the bid for Dean comes, I'd rather just deal with Adelaide.

9 & 11 for 16, 48 and F1

Then could even try to points farm for 16, North or Sydney?

 

[BluesForEternity]

Depending on where the bid for Dean comes, I'd rather just deal with Adelaide.

9 & 11 for 16, 48 and F1

Then could even try to points farm for 16, North or Sydney?

Sydney needs to keep their picks for their academy players.

North is of course the other option to bank points - but it's hard to imagine them willing to trade out 25+26 for 16. I suppose this could work though...:

Adelaide
Out: 48, F1
In: 11

North
Out: 25, 26
In: 9

Carlton
Out: 9, 11
In: 25, 26, 48, F1

This does gives us the 2026 first, which is a big win. But it does make 2025 a lot riskier. Picks 25+26 is just enough to match a bid at around Pick 9/10ish (even accounting for picks coming in, I think), and then we'd need somewhat optimal conditions to match Ison on top of that. With three first 2026 round picks, we could just cop the points deficit for 2026, I suppose, but it could potentially be risky depending on whatever the hell the AFL's new bidding rules become.

 

[SurreyBlue]

Sydney needs to keep their picks for their academy players.

North is of course the other option to bank points - but it's hard to imagine them willing to trade out 25+26 for 16. I suppose this could work though...:

Adelaide
Out: 48, F1
In: 11

North
Out: 25, 26
In: 9

Carlton
Out: 9, 11
In: 25, 26, 48, F1

This does gives us the 2026 first, which is a big win. But it does make 2025 a lot riskier. Picks 25+26 is just enough to match a bid at around Pick 9/10ish (even accounting for picks coming in, I think), and then we'd need somewhat optimal conditions to match Ison on top of that. With three first 2026 round picks, we could just cop the points deficit for 2026, I suppose, but it could potentially be risky depending on whatever the hell the AFL's new bidding rules become.

Just a farce. Disgracefully unprofessional.

 

[carlton_99]

Depending on where the bid for Dean comes, I'd rather just deal with Adelaide.

9 & 11 for 16, 48 and F1

Then could even try to points farm for 16, North or Sydney?

That would be downgrading both first round picks just to bring in 48? We are giving up way too much there.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

That would be downgrading both first round picks just to bring in 48? We are giving up way too much there.

Depends how you rate the 2026 draft, and if you're happy to have a late pick this year

 

[marcmurphy3]

Some of these proposed deals are shocking.

I think people are undervaluing pick 9 and 11.

For all the talk of the stronger 2026 draft, if a player is available this year that clubs like, there'll be clubs who want the immediate sugar hit.

Think we'll have several options to trade out, that are much better then what's being proposed.