Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[katmanblue]

Depends how you rate the 2026 draft, and if you're happy to have a late pick this year

9 for 16 and F1 is probably closer to correct weight.

 

[mrkyuss]

Why are people throwing up 9+11 for 16 and a future pick most likely 14-17. How is that a deal ? Future picks generally come with value if willing to give up this year firsts…

 

[Stamos]

9 for 16 and F1 is probably closer to correct weight.

Yes.
In general, that sort of rise from 16 to 9 would cost an F1.
Maybe a tiny something going back (F4).

This year is somewhat complicated by its presumed weakness and compromised nature compared with the forecast for 2026. But that doesn’t throw the value out by that much. And then Crows don’t have much later currency that would be useful to us.

So maybe something like

9,11, F4 for 16, 48, F1, F2
(all F picks 2026)

That’s a much more equitable deal, that makes it worth it for us.
But it is a lot for the Crows to give up.

 

[carlton_99]

Yes.
In general, that sort of rise from 16 to 9 would cost an F1.
Maybe a tiny something going back (F4).

This year is somewhat complicated by its presumed weakness and compromised nature compared with the forecast for 2026. But that doesn’t throw the value out by that much. And then Crows don’t have much later currency that would be useful to us.

So maybe something like

9,11, F4 for 16, 48, F1, F2
(all F picks 2026)

That’s a much more equitable deal, that makes it worth it for us.
But it is a lot for the Crows to give up.

The F2 will end up likely in the late 30s next year. Don't think it sways the deal that much. Also if Dean gets bids on early we would struggle to match him and Ison with 16, and a couple of later picks (43, 48, and 54).

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Id rather pick 14-17 in next year's draft than this years that slides out after Dean

 

[Stamos]

Still not sure that is enough. The F2 will end up likely in the late 30s next year. Don't think it sways the deal that much. Also if Dean gets bids on early we would struggle to match him and Ison with 16, and a couple of later picks.

You could trade their F2 back into this draft to match Ison if we were short of points.

 

[macky99]

Some of these proposed deals are shocking.

I think people are undervaluing pick 9 and 11.

For all the talk of the stronger 2026 draft, if a player is available this year that clubs like, there'll be clubs who want the immediate sugar hit.

Think we'll have several options to trade out, that are much better then what's being proposed.

Agree totally with this, the sooner we get as much good young talent in the door the quicker we are going to be in contention for finals again.
We should be finding a way to bring a further quality aside from Dean, Lindsay or a young KPF would be ideal.
l suspect Austin won't make a call till draft night depending on what plays out.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

Think the obvious thing we do is wait for draft night, the club will have multiple options possibilities worked out with other clubs…

See where the first pick bid comes in, how much do we slide back, who’s still available on our ratings list, listen to offers presented to us, if any rated players are available take them if not accumulate a split of overs in our favor of current & future picks…

Thought last year we were tight lipped, hopefully we’re doing the same again cards close to the chest, no leaks…

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

The ball use... Still hoping he slides to our range post Dean bid.

hard to believe there are ten better kids than this one.... looks a gem.

 

[BlueNath]

Think the obvious thing we do is wait for draft night, the club will have multiple options possibilities worked out with other clubs…

See where the first pick bid comes in, how much do we slide back, who’s still available on our ratings list, listen to offers presented to us, if any rated players are available take them if not accumulate a split of overs in our favor of current & future picks…

Thought last year we tight lipped, hopefully we’re doing the same again cards close to the chest, no leaks…

Great point! Many on here were convinced we'd take a Draper, FOS, Lindsay etc. Not that anyone was disappointed when Jagga's name was called. Im sure he will end up being better than all these guys. Lalor was always going 1, and he looks to be pretty special, so Jagga has some competition. In Austin we trust. Im happy to sit back with a bucket of popcorn and enjoy the show

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

I like the look of Blake Oudshoorn-Bennier, seems to be a good user of ball and link player between the arcs.

gees, that's a heck of a name!

Reckon his mates call him Bob.

 

[JJBagger]

hard to believe there are ten better kids than this one.... looks a gem.

Think his defensive application can certainly be questioned. But in the right system and if he is used to his strengths, that can be a complete non-factor

 

[The Return of the Paf]

I just don't think we should be trying to fix today's problems with (probably inefficient) draftees, when we are still quite a way off. Basically attempting the same tactics that created some of the issues in the first place. I'd rather we find players to build the side around, rather than the polish. Trying to draft a small forward reeks of haste as per usual.

 

[GoBlues!]

gees, that's a heck of a name!

Reckon his mates call him Bob.

Every team needs a Bob.

And as they say in the movie The Drop - nobody ever sees Bob coming…

 

[mrb1]

I just don't think we should be trying to fix today's problems with (probably inefficient) draftees, when we are still quite a way off. Basically attempting the same tactics that created some of the issues in the first place. I'd rather we find players to build the side around rather than the polish. Trying to draft a small forward reeks of haste as per usual.

How long do you want to wait until success? 32 years, 34 years, 36 years or longer? We can not wait. We need talent now. Don't trade current picks into future drafts. It's an endless putting off until tomorrow what you can do today.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

Great point! Many on here were convinced we'd take a Draper, FOS, Lindsay etc. Not that anyone was disappointed when Jagga's name was called. Im sure he will end up being better than all these guys. Lalor was always going 1, and he looks to be pretty special, so Jagga has some competition. In Austin we trust. Im happy to sit back with a bucket of popcorn and enjoy the show

O’Farrell was a great get as well, although most Phantoms had him connected to our 2nd pick, there wasn’t much noise from our end also…
Just a matter of him drifting to us without a bid on BenCampo coming in before it…

 

[Coona Blues]

I just don't think we should be trying to fix today's problems with (probably inefficient) draftees, when we are still quite a way off. Basically attempting the same tactics that created some of the issues in the first place. I'd rather we find players to build the side around rather than the polish. Trying to draft a small forward reeks of haste as per usual.

Not sure I follow your line of thinking.

I am not desperate to grab a small forward in this draft, but it would not be “haste”. We have long relied on budget small forward players. The club has not seen them as a priority, while other clubs stockpile them and even build around them as opposed to the time honoured building around talls.

The addition of mid sized Hayward, on top of the developing Moir improves our balance in the front half. Ainsworth is just a rung below elite as a small forward, but sees himself as a high half forward rather than a goal kicker first. Zac Williams is our best small forward from the existing group, but at 31 with a checkered injury history, he likely does not have a long tenure ahead. Frankie Evans was a revelation at the end of last season and has shown the ability to enter the upper echelon of small forwards, if he continues, it is a huge plus. Motlop remains a tease. His best is certainly good enough, but his worst is frustrating to say the least. He needs the penny to drop to provide consistent performances.

Hayward, Ainsworth, Moir, Williams and Motlop would provide us with a very competitive small/medium forward group. Cottrell is a quality high half forward when fit, Fogarty has plenty to like, but just comes up short on x-factor, pace and kicking. Flynn Young was a surprise retention for mine, after acquiring Hayward and Ainsworth. I love the idea, the potential of Young. His left peg can be a weapon, he has the skills, on face value, has the weapons to be a quality league footballer, but he was not quite up to the rise in standard. Voss made him play whatever role opened up as opposed to tailoring a role to maximise his talents. Will be an interesting watch, if he can step up after an AFL pre season could become a real point of difference type. For mine, I wouldn’t have banked on it and used his spot for a younger prospect offering a greater threat around goal. Young seems well liked in the group, but will be 24 next season and is still potential only, I see a bit of Boyd comparison, an almost player.

We definitely have room for a young offensive small forward. Zac is close to the end, and Motlop still needs to consolidate, and could definitely be “upgraded”. I would very much prefer a tall forward developing option with our likely (third) pick, and would also not be against drafting the elite left foot of Josh Lindsay. I am a little torn in Lindsay as I like our developing medium defensive group, Cowan, Carroll, Hollands, and the more subjective Wilson and Charleson. Chesser and Lucas Campo are both wingers who could play back, and we have added Florent who should become a staple, making it hard to justify further investment in that area.

List balance suggests we need a young, developing tall forward after parting with Lemmey, but there is certainly a case for other options.

 

[tarczonandjane]

I’ve said previously that if we were drafting for needs, then my choices in order would be: 1: midfielder with pace; 2: tall forward; 3: small forward.

My guess is that by the time we come to drafting, the midfielders with pace are gone. And perhaps we are happy to wait for Cody anyway. So let’s leave pacy midfielder to the side.

In response to Paf, if we are drafting for need then I am happy enough with Dovaston. Highlight videos are always tricky. But at the very least, his vision shows he is an absolute competitor. Those second, third, and fourth efforts are something to behold. I think he would fit in just fine.

 

[Triniboy]

Dumb club, if true.

Cannot see why the interest in Dovaston

 

[Matty411]

Cannot see why the interest in Dovaston

Pre-trades - must get. Now? Still suits our long term needs as we don't have a Nick Watson, mercurial small forward type and I don't think Ainsworth or Hayward are that either.

If it shakes out that we grab a 2nd first rounder after Dean in that range, I (and we) will be happy with the Dove.

 

[ferrisb]

I just don't think we should be trying to fix today's problems with (probably inefficient) draftees, when we are still quite a way off. Basically attempting the same tactics that created some of the issues in the first place. I'd rather we find players to build the side around rather than the polish. Trying to draft a small forward reeks of haste as per usual.

Draft for talent.

Trade for needs.

Arr0w TM

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Draft for talent.

Trade for needs.

Arr0w TM

This mantra is flawed beyond belief.

 

[Stamos]

This mantra is flawed beyond belief.

I think it generally holds, especially at the pointy end of the draft.

For us this year, if we get to use a 2nd R1 pick along with Dean, whether that's at 6/9 or 9/12 or 14 or 18, we should just go our highest rated player.
Unless they're a slow inside mid.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I think it generally holds, especially at the pointy end of the draft.

For us this year, if we get to use a 2nd R1 pick along with Dean, whether that's at 6/9 or 9/12 or 14 or 18, we should just go our highest rated player.
Unless they're a slow inside mid.

The simple comment 'Unless they're a slow inside mid' proves the mantra doesn't hold up.

You draft the best talent that fits a need. Selecting players based purely on talent is idiotic in today's game where balance across the list is more important than ever.

 

[JustaBattler]

This mantra is flawed beyond belief.

Ask any coach what they think of 'the draft' as far as what they can achieve with a couple of kids- and forget about freakish one off talents like Walsh or Weitering ...and even then look at the LT consequences on playing even the most talented for full seasons - they break down and their LT is impacted negatively

there is a fundamental mismatch between draft 'duration' and coach 'duration' - one is a developmental story and the other is a W/L story - now - or ELSE.

the same people calling fo a coach to play the kids are the same people who call for a coach's head based on W/L.