Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[SurreyBlue]

Some still don't get it. The draft isn't going to get your there if you keep losing players you have developed and are about to hit their prime. Cowan will be one.

 

[tarczonandjane]

Just for those who haven’t seen my musings on this topic previously. In my view, inference can be made to suggest Cowan will not play for the Devils:

1: he is from the northwest of the state, the team is from the south. Parochialism dominates in Tasmania.
2: he was a Carlton fan growing up. Yes, yes, I know… JSOS. But it means Carlton is as likely to be close to his heart as Tasmania.

I wouldn’t be writing him off as necessarily Devils-bound.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Why? We get a compensation pick, and a floating one at that, where we can pick what year it falls into (presumably in a 2 or 3 year range).

I think we'll do better out of a trade. They have some top end picks they have to move for players.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Just for those who haven’t seen my musings on this topic previously. In my view, inference can be made to suggest Cowan will not play for the Devils:

1: he is from the northwest of the state, the team is from the south. Parochialism dominates in Tasmania.
2: he was a Carlton fan growing up. Yes, yes, I know… JSOS. But it means Carlton is as likely to be close to his heart as Tasmania.

I wouldn’t be writing him off as necessarily Devils-bound.

Think it depends on how good he gets over the next 2 years. They will have silly money to spend but cant spend it on everyone.

On that note, we need to get Jagga signed asap.

 

[Coona Blues]

I absolutely expect Lachie to go home, but by then he will be one of our major players and be worth a mint, we won't loose there

I don’t think you can lock the fanatical boyhood Blue in to a defection back home. He would be a massive get for the Tassie team and a likely leader in his prime.

The Southern base (Hobart) will be a go slow for a lot of boys from the North of the state, with a very real North/South rivalry only appreciated if you are from Tassie.

As suggested, if Moo does go back to Tassie, we will be very well compensated.

 

[Coona Blues]

On an associated note, this year’s draft has a very interesting Avery Thomas from Tassie. Absolute jet off half back. Very robust who can both defend and rebound. Tested off the charts at the combine. Only go slow is disposal and ball use being a little wanting.

Will be a good investment for someone with enough depth to develop the kid in the knowledge that he is likely trade bait for a good pick in ‘27.

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

That's obfuscation, surely?

The worry is that sticking too strictly to the Dean cause, despite high bids, might stop us from 'setting this team up for the next decade'. At any rate, I don't want to take another first round selection this year, I want more points for next year and to draft one (or even two) 'diamonds in the rough' a bit later on. If we are committed to Dean and Walker, we might have to start backing ourselves in with later selections, we might as well start now. Heck - some of the b-graders we have now aren't going to cut the mustard long-term.

How so? Getting access to a talent rated higher than our pick, in a position of need, is hugely advantageous. These opportunities don’t come along very often but we’ve put ourselves in a position to do it three years in a row. The advantage something like this has given Lions and Pies is why they want to change the system.

Would you seriously prefer that we just wave him through and take the 14-16th best kid in a weak draft? More likely to just add another one of those b graders you’re talking about.

 

[tarczonandjane]

On an associated note, this year’s draft has a very interesting Avery Thomas from Tassie. Absolute jet off half back. Very robust who can both defend and rebound. Tested off the charts at the combine. Only go slow is disposal and ball use being a little wanting.

Will be a good investment for someone with enough depth to develop the kid in the knowledge that he is likely trade bait for a good pick in ‘27.

No relation to a more controversial former Tasmanian draft pick?

 

[Red Bull]

On an associated note, this year’s draft has a very interesting Avery Thomas from Tassie. Absolute jet off half back. Very robust who can both defend and rebound. Tested off the charts at the combine. Only go slow is disposal and ball use being a little wanting.

Will be a good investment for someone with enough depth to develop the kid in the knowledge that he is likely trade bait for a good pick in ‘27.

Agree with this theory and have always thought along these lines re Cowan.
Really nice player in the making but an even better investment with Tassie on the horizon.
If he/they stay at their clubs you keep a nice player.
If they elect to return to Tassie you will be compensated what they are worth at a minimum and most likely receive “overs”
If people can look past the “name” and consider the “value” it’s good business.
3 first rounders and Hayward for a 29yo Curnow with dodgy knees and ankles is good business.
The “value” received in return for Curnow sets the team up for a decade

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

That's obfuscation, surely?

The worry is that sticking too strictly to the Dean cause, despite high bids, might stop us from 'setting this team up for the next decade'. At any rate, I don't want to take another first round selection this year, I want more points for next year and to draft one (or even two) 'diamonds in the rough' a bit later on. If we are committed to Dean and Walker, we might have to start backing ourselves in with later selections, we might as well start now. Heck - some of the b-graders we have now aren't going to cut the mustard long-term.

This is what happens when posters listen to what could only loosely be described as 'casual draft watchers' rating Dean in the mid-late teens for months.

Everyone's up in arms that we're probably going to have to match a top 5-6 bid on him despite that being a completely reasonable price to pay based on his performances this year.

 

[bradfisher14]

This is what happens when posters listen to what could only loosely be described as 'casual draft watchers' rating Dean in the mid-late teens for months.

Everyone's up in arms that we're probably going to have to match a top 5-6 bid on him despite that being a completely reasonable price to pay based on his performances this year.

I find it hilarious. We've been crying out for another key back to partner Weitering since the Jones saga. Now we're about to draft the best key back prospect since Weitering and people are complaining that we're going to overpay.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I find it hilarious. We've been crying out for another key back to partner Weitering since the Jones saga. Now we're about to draft the best key back prospect since Weitering and people are complaining that we're going to overpay.

They'll probably be up in arms next year with Walker too somehow. I just find it bizarre.

 

[BlueJet]

This is what happens when posters listen to what could only loosely be described as 'casual draft watchers' rating Dean in the mid-late teens for months.

Everyone's up in arms that we're probably going to have to match a top 5-6 bid on him despite that being a completely reasonable price to pay based on his performances this year.

I know professional draft watchers who have him in the 9-14 range.
Ultimately, the club had committed to him and will pay the appropriate price.

 

[Jimmae]

This is what happens when posters listen to what could only loosely be described as 'casual draft watchers' rating Dean in the mid-late teens for months.

Everyone's up in arms that we're probably going to have to match a top 5-6 bid on him despite that being a completely reasonable price to pay based on his performances this year.

My view when he was being rated far lower than Ison and as a late second round prospect was that it was nonsense, he's properly quick and prepared to attack the ball in the air, but that he lacks a clear contested game and is just a functional disposer of the ball.

My viewing hasn't shifted, but the draft pool isn't the strongest. Happily admit that Melbourne may bid, but anything before that is utter nonsense.

I don't care that the Bombers were interested in Weddle, that's not remotely the same proposition.

I find it hilarious. We've been crying out for another key back to partner Weitering since the Jones saga. Now we're about to draft the best key back prospect since Weitering and people are complaining that we're going to overpay.

The best key back prospect since Weitering's draft was Aaron Naughton, followed by Balta, Taylor, SDK, then perhaps Cox (who was a reach), and Tauru.

What's changed over that time is where the smart and skillful talls typically wind up - including in the league as you can see with Naughton - as well as how most clubs evaluate the value of a key defender in terms of draft and salary cost given the current game structures and personnel demands.

The 'failed forward' thinking has become maybe a little too baked in as well, and plenty have made the switch since Liam Jones' success, an era we're now coming towards the end of.

Any evaluation of Dean being ahead of Balta, Naughton, SDK, Tauru, and Cox at the same age is deeply flawed and reflects typical clubland whispers designed to make us rethink our approach.

It's worked for 20 years, why would they stop now? It's on us to see through it and figure out who would bid in earnest.

They'll probably be up in arms next year with Walker too somehow. I just find it bizarre.

If he doesn't smooth out his ability to track contests such that he can release others by hand, give and go, or hit the outside kick more consistently, yes I will.

He's that kid who smashes himself into everything, including how he drives his feet into the turf, and he needs to pick those moments a bit better while having some different gears elsewhere.

Still a lot of work to be done, or I'd expect him to slide a bit as the 2026 season progresses.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

I know professional draft watchers who have him in the 9-14 range.
Ultimately, the club had committed to him and will pay the appropriate price.

Yeah but this how the discontents get nervy. 'Professional draft watchers' will also tell you that they would be rapt to draft a 200 game AFL player in the first round. Dean is as good a lock an AFL player as about anyone in the top dozen. As walshy said, we are not a better chance of finding a player at 13/14

 

[agro]

Just for those who haven’t seen my musings on this topic previously. In my view, inference can be made to suggest Cowan will not play for the Devils:

1: he is from the northwest of the state, the team is from the south. Parochialism dominates in Tasmania.
2: he was a Carlton fan growing up. Yes, yes, I know… JSOS. But it means Carlton is as likely to be close to his heart as Tasmania.

I wouldn’t be writing him off as necessarily Devils-bound.

Avid Carlton fan and proud Taswegian Tim Lane has said he’d switch allegiance if and when a Tasmanian side entered the AFL.

 

[ferrisb]

They'll probably be up in arms next year with Walker too somehow. I just find it bizarre.

The club would probably draft Walker as a key defender

 

[King Patty]

Just for those who haven’t seen my musings on this topic previously. In my view, inference can be made to suggest Cowan will not play for the Devils:

1: he is from the northwest of the state, the team is from the south. Parochialism dominates in Tasmania.
2: he was a Carlton fan growing up. Yes, yes, I know… JSOS. But it means Carlton is as likely to be close to his heart as Tasmania.

I wouldn’t be writing him off as necessarily Devils-bound.

I would see it as an opportunity for Blues to get an early pick in 2027 draft.
If he wants to stay fine, but if he chooses $$ and tassie, Carlton will be well compensated.

 

[tarczonandjane]

Avid Carlton fan and proud Taswegian Tim Lane has said he’d switch allegiance if and when a Tasmanian side entered the AFL.

It could happen Agro. As a born and bred Tasmanian, I face the same choice. But I just don’t think it is a lay down misere that Cowan chooses Tassie. To be honest, I think the wages on offer mean it will be just as likely that big name Victorian players will head down there.

 

[Jimmae]

Yeah but this how the discontents get nervy. 'Professional draft watchers' will also tell you that they would be rapt to draft a 200 game AFL player in the first round. Dean is as good a lock an AFL player as about anyone in the top dozen. As walshy said, we are not a better chance of finding a player at 13/14

That's nice, but we'll effectively have picks 12 and 14 going into the night, so I'd prefer that we maximise our value.

If the offers to get ahead are ludicrous, then we need to be smart about how we fall back, not just sinking into rank offers from Adelaide and St Kilda.

 

[BlueJet]

Yeah but this how the discontents get nervy. 'Professional draft watchers' will also tell you that they would be rapt to draft a 200 game AFL player in the first round. Dean is as good a lock an AFL player as about anyone in the top dozen. As walshy said, we are not a better chance of finding a player at 13/14

The discontents will become nervous either way. With respect, that is not my concern as it doesn't impact the outcome.

 

[marcmurphy3]

My view when he was being rated far lower than Ison and as a late second round prospect was that it was nonsense, he's properly quick and prepared to attack the ball in the air, but that he lacks a clear contested game and is just a functional disposer of the ball.

My viewing hasn't shifted, but the draft pool isn't the strongest. Happily admit that Melbourne may bid, but anything before that is utter nonsense.

I don't care that the Bombers were interested in Weddle, that's not remotely the same proposition.

The best key back prospect since Weitering's draft was Aaron Naughton, followed by Balta, Taylor, SDK, then perhaps Cox (who was a reach), and Tauru.

What's changed over that time is where the smart and skillful talls typically wind up - including in the league as you can see with Naughton - as well as how most clubs evaluate the value of a key defender in terms of draft and salary cost given the current game structures and personnel demands.

The 'failed forward' thinking has become maybe a little too baked in as well, and plenty have made the switch since Liam Jones' success, an era we're now coming towards the end of.

Any evaluation of Dean being ahead of Balta, Naughton, SDK, Tauru, and Cox at the same age is deeply flawed and reflects typical clubland whispers designed to make us rethink our approach.

It's worked for 20 years, why would they stop now? It's on us to see through it and figure out who would bid in earnest.

If he doesn't smooth out his ability to track contests such that he can release others by hand, give and go, or hit the outside kick more consistently, yes I will.

He's that kid who smashes himself into everything, including how he drives his feet into the turf, and he needs to pick those moments a bit better while having some different gears elsewhere.

Still a lot of work to be done, or I'd expect him to slide a bit as the 2026 season progresses.

I watch the draft closely and Dean is ahead of all those guys, except maybe Naughton. Tauru was very raw and drafted more on athleticism. Balta and Taylor were taken in the 20s. SDK and Cox not as well performed as Dean.

Denver Granger Barras was a good prospect but think Dean is better. DGB always struggled 1 on 1, which isnt ideal for a KPD prospect.

No KPD prospect since Weitering that I would take over Dean.

 

[SurreyBlue]

I watch the draft closely and Dean is ahead of all those guys, except maybe Naughton. Tauru was very raw and drafted more on athleticism. Balta and Taylor were taken in the 20s. SDK and Cox not as well performed as Dean.

Denver Granger Barras was a good prospect but think Dean is better. DGB always struggled 1 on 1, which isnt ideal for a KPD prospect.

No KPD prospect since Weitering that I would take over Dean.

This sounds exciting but please wait until after the draft to post such info…

 

[agro]

It could happen Agro. As a born and bred Tasmanian, I face the same choice. But I just don’t think it is a lay down misere that Cowan chooses Tassie. To be honest, I think the wages on offer mean it will be just as likely that big name Victorian players will head down there.

Big wages does funny things to people - some people are even persuaded to play for Shit Kilda.

 

[bradfisher14]

The best key back prospect since Weitering's draft was Aaron Naughton, followed by Balta, Taylor, SDK, then perhaps Cox (who was a reach), and Tauru.

Any evaluation of Dean being ahead of Balta, Naughton, SDK, Tauru, and Cox at the same age is deeply flawed and reflects typical clubland whispers designed to make us rethink our approach.

That was my opinion based on their draft range rather than an evaluation of their respective junior careers. Dean will probably end up being the highest drafted KPD since Weitering, hence why it could be argued that he's the best prospect at that position since him.