Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Gingerbread man]

You’re overthinking it.

Dean is an elite key back who probably would and should be picked in the top 3 this year. It may drift out to a few picks later due to being father / son.

This is a player you build your backline around and if he did cost picks 9 and 11 at worst, you take that and run.

Watch him live and you’ll see this kid is the real deal.

Don’t overthink picks we are giving up this year. We only want Dean and Ison and maybe some more picks for next year.

Adding Dean and Ison for ultimately 2 picks is a very very smart move

Is he a elite key back?? No one knows. What I do know is we lost TDK, SOS and Charlie for what 3 players we were always going to get in dean Ison and walker and a first rounder in the Tassie draft. In the long run it might work out but at this stage I feel like we have lost out.

 

[Jimmae]

Is he a elite key back?? No one knows. What I do know is we lost TDK, SOS and Charlie for what 3 players we were always going to get in dean Ison and walker and a first rounder in the Tassie draft. In the long run it might work out but at this stage I feel like we have lost out.

It's not quite that bad:

If the result was that we only got Dean and Ison and spare change, the sum totality so far is:

OUT: TDK, Charlie, Jack, 2027 R2

IN: Dean, Ison, Hayward, 2026 R1 (Sydney), 2026 R2 (North), 2027 R1 (Sydney)

If we have a good season and we're lucky, the existing 2026 first rounders pay for Walker, and it's a middling outcome that we need to recover in free agency.

 

[Number 10 is cursed]

Apparently we met with Hudson Walker from Subiaco sometime in the last week. We might be having a late speculative pick after Harry & Jack.

 

[dangertroy]

Is he a elite key back?? No one knows. What I do know is we lost TDK, SOS and Charlie for what 3 players we were always going to get in dean Ison and walker and a first rounder in the Tassie draft. In the long run it might work out but at this stage I feel like we have lost out.

How were we going to get those three players without the draft currency that we got by trading out TDK, SOS and Charlie? We had less than 500 draft points coming into the trade period - we'll likely need 1000 more than that just to match a bid on Dean, if we are lucky, to say nothing of Ison or the potential top 3 bid we will need to match next year.

Just because they are father son/NGA players, it doesn't make them free - it just gives us the first right of refusal to pay slightly below market rate on those players.

 

[Bfevola]

Hudson Walker. We are obsessed with little skinny short forwards. For list balance Carlton you need to draft a developing KPP. Unless the small player is super good.

We are obsessed with that type.

 

[Pablito]

Well that's a new name

Been mentioned we're interested a couple times on here.

 

[Mondyboy]

Hudson Walker. We are obsessed with little skinny short forwards. For list balance Carlton you need to draft a developing KPP. Unless the small player is super good.

We are obsessed with that type.

He’s more a mid, though he does scream Lachie Fogarty—though much quicker and a longer (though not necessarily better) kick. Like Fog, he enjoys a tackle.

He did kick the winning goal against Vic Country (watched that one live), so he has composure.

If we did pick him up, he would be mid/high half forward depth. Not another small forward. But you’d think a player like him would be a dime a dozen.

 

[Stamos]

Is he an elite key back?? No one knows. What I do know is we lost TDK, SOS and Charlie for what 3 players we were always going to get in dean Ison and walker and a first rounder in the Tassie draft. In the long run it might work out but at this stage I feel like we have lost out.

How were we going to always get Dean, Ison and Walker without draft currency?

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

He’s more a mid, though he does scream Lachie Fogarty—though much quicker and a longer (though not necessarily better) kick. Like Fog, he enjoys a tackle.

He did kick the winning goal against Vic Country (watched that one live), so he has composure.

If we did pick him up, he would be mid/high half forward depth. Not another small forward. But you’d think a player like him would be a dime a dozen.

He also has senior WAFL experience (played 4 games) so that’s a plus.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

So so are likely heading into the draft with 21, 25, 27, 30, 46

Potential to walk away with Dean, Ison, F2 .. and potentially Pickett/Ludowyke (both I think will slide to the mid-late 20s.).

Not behd.

Pickett will be gone.

Mikunda
Kondogiannis
Allen
Emmett
Kickett
Marron

Could all be available in that range and would all fit a need.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

In other news we have reportedly had quite a bit of interest in Fred Rodriguez.

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

In other news we have reportedly had quite a bit of interest in Fred Rodriguez.

Fits our yearly mandate of “did well as an under-ager”

 

[swuzzlebubble]

In other news we have reportedly had quite a bit of interest in Fred Rodriguez.

Liked Freddy as the lead out man for Robbie McEwan in Le Tour.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Fits our yearly mandate of “did well as an under-ager”

I'd be a touch disappointed, think there's better talents who will be in the same range as him.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Yep, I spent half of yesterday arvo going through all the various permutations and combinations of trade scenarios on Pommy's draft simulator.

We'd absolutely be better off with 13 and 34 for 9 with no bids on Dean from WCE. With bids on Uwland, Paterson and Annable before Dean, it puts us in a pretty good position.

The trade with North could then becomes pick 13 (WCE) for 25 and 2026 2nd.

If we're really bold, we then offer pick 11 to the Tiggs for 38 and 2026 2nd on the proviso they also don't bid on Dean.

Leaves us with 25, 34, 38, 43, 54. Enough points to match a Dean bid at pick 8 or 9, and an Ison bid in the early 20's.

We just take Dean and Ison and disappear into the sunset. Take 2 players in the SSP.

Couldn’t agree with this more. The best move we can make when it comes to points is to stop teams bidding.
Working with Richmond and West Coast could possibly save us 600pts.
Work with them and Dean gets through to 8.

 

[josephone]

What does that mean though? Asking them to be our friend? Sending them life affirming texts? Throwing them a fun brunch Xmas party?

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

What does that mean though? Asking them to be our friend? Sending them life affirming texts? Throwing them a fun brunch Xmas party?

No, its taking the path of least resistance.

Chances are that we've probably got a fair idea where the bids are coming now, but in the trade scenario I posted earlier, we're guaranteed to get Dean, Ison, a pick in somewhere in the 40's - AND a couple of high 2nd round picks for 2026.

And we'll send them all a Christmas card as well.

 

[Blue and Silver]

I'd be a touch disappointed, think there's better talents who will be in the same range as him.

I saw a flash of brilliance in I think the Vic Country game, but nothing after, disappointing?

 

[josephone]

No, its taking the path of least resistance.

Chances are that we've probably got a fair idea where the bids are coming now, but in the trade scenario I posted earlier, we're guaranteed to get Dean, Ison, a pick in somewhere in the 40's - AND a couple of high 2nd round picks for 2026.

And we'll send them all a Christmas card as well.

I was referring to the idea of ‘working with’ Richmond and WCE to ensure they don’t bid on Dean.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

I haven't been able to watch nearly as much u18s as I'd like this year, and compared to others so my opinions this year are mired in ignorance, but if we are looking for a value pick I would be happy with Noah Roberts-Thomson. Walker didn't stand out for me much aside from his tackling pressure

 

[Michael Jezz]

Well that's silly by Essendon unless they believe Sweid won't see a bid until pick 37 at best, which I don't believe to be the case.

They could trade 9 back again via Gold Coast, but it only helps them pay for a pick 28 bid, while giving them pick 15 (pick 19 by the time they use it). So potentially 21, 25, and 26 into 19 and 28... I think instead they'd be just chasing Sharp or Grlj and winging it from there.

I remain hopeful it's reflective of two things for us:

1. Scenario planning and ruffling feathers, rather than a confirmation.
2. It shows how valuable that pick may remain in a trade-up scenario with Richmond, as clearly Essendon think it's worth throwing everything else they have in 2025 at it.

I think what we saw early in the trade period from Hawthorn is that they were prepared to trade down if it meant getting another pick in the top 25 of this draft.

They were willing to take a small bet on our strategy in the process (i.e. 9 would be consumed in a Dean bid), but they were still more than happy to shed what would become probably picks 34 and 35 just to move their 2nd round pick up maybe 4 or 5 spots.

The Essendon trade proposal is further confirmation of Hawthorn's analysis on the quality of the top 25ish vs the rest. I believe there is still more to play out.

If the result was that we only got Dean and Ison and spare change, the sum totality so far is:

OUT: TDK, Charlie, Jack, 2027 R2

IN: Dean, Ison, Hayward, 2026 R1 (Sydney), 2026 R2 (North), 2027 R1 (Sydney)

If we have a good season and we're lucky, the existing 2026 first rounders pay for Walker, and it's a middling outcome that we need to recover in free agency.

As I've said repeatedly, it's not better identifying the situation with TDK at the end of 2024 that stings the most. He should have been locked away or traded.

Accepting a bid for Dean in the 3-7 range compounds it IMO.



I don't appreciate my argument being lumped in with his, but taking your other points it's worth a lot more than that the outcome you've ascribed to it, and that is why expectations should be managed with players and staff. It's a business, one we should be a lot more successful in.

Even holding 9 and 11 would likely result in:

• One of Sharp, Grlj, Taylor, Cumming, and Robey, all of whom who are at Dean's level, some arguably above
• One of Schubert, Greeves, Farrow, Marsh, Hibbens-Hargraves, who are all very close to Dean's level and can realistically move past him

So this idea that Dean should eat up most of those two picks is a horrendous result given there is a discount.


The current thinking is they will see bids on Addinsall and Murray in the second round, and they will pass on one of them.

My pick is they will secure Addinsall.

With respect, he's not. He's an above average player with notable elite traits, but he's not going to break tall opponents apart when his read is off. His fallback is being quick and recovering from mistakes when that's available to him, or being able to sit on smaller opponents and blanket them instead.

He might be an upgrade on Jack in time, but he's not a replacement for Weitering. Jacob is on another level, and we should see that next season with the overall improvement in midfield transition, same as we will in Saad.

Gut feel tells me pass on Dean and use 9 & 11.
Is Dean better than combination of Dovaston & Sharp?
Jimmae is just stating an inconvenient truth and embracing the discomfort that the list management can not be based on sentimentality

 

[marcmurphy3]

Gut feel tells me pass on Dean and use 9 & 11.
Is Dean better than combination of Dovaston & Sharp?
Jimmae is just stating an inconvenient truth and embracing the discomfort that the list management can not be based on sentimentality

But its not Dean for 9+11. Its Dean + Ison + F2 for 9 + 11.

 

[RPCB]

Maybe this guy could be our slider...heard good things...

View attachment 2477816

Sounds made up.

 

[ferrisb]

Reckon we pick up Josiah Landy alongside our 2 guys.

Omg, he's a real player!?!?!

I just assumed you badly mistyped Josh Lindsay...

 

[Blue and Silver]

Gut feel tells me pass on Dean and use 9 & 11.
Is Dean better than combination of Dovaston & Sharp?
Jimmae is just stating an inconvenient truth and embracing the discomfort that the list management can not be based on sentimentality

I will play this game.

Currently we have fairly sizeable list holes in key positions at both ends.

At pick 9 and 11 we are likely to be able to pick up maybe Schubert or Marsh.

Dean is the top Key defensive prospect and we get him for discount.

Picking up a slow inside mid to get lost in the mix behind Cripps and Hewett and Cerra and Lord and Ben Camporeale doesn't make sense.

Dovaston makes more sense, but at the cost of a perfect list fit ?

This isn't about sentimentality, we need key backs and forwards and we need good users going inside 50.

Dean and Ison gets us two thirds of the way there