Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[dangertroy]

The best strategy to deal with bids is to have the points available to cover them. It’s why so many times we see bids coming later than expected, as there’s little incentive to bid when the bid can be covered.

The issue we’ve got with our current picks is that if everything goes naturally, we will get another first round pick in along with Dean. There’s incentive for other clubs to bid early to push us back out of the first round. It sounds like the club is sending the message that we’re not a threat - we’re planning to get out of the way and not aiming to get another first round pick in.

I think the * deal makes a lot of sense. Load up on picks in the 20s, some of which will come in after the early bids. Playing around with the draft simulator, we can trade out 9 and 43 as soon as the draft starts for 21,27,30. Hold 11 and wait for the bid. At worst, it comes at 3, and we pay for it with 11, 21 and 27, leaving us with 24, 25 and 39 after Annable and Patterson bids.

But as we can easily cover out bid and end up with 2 mid 20s picks, there’s less imperative for the early bid, so the bid comes later. We still end up with 24 and 25, but we would have more points to match Ison. 24 and 25 gives us options. Use one pick and trade the other into next year, trade them both, try and move up…

Either way, I don’t think we need to trade 11 out to north at the start of the draft - I think we can get a f2 later - there will be someone left on the board that someone wants badly enough. My actual ideal trade situation is to give * pick 43 instead of 54 (helps with their academy picks), but also swap their f1 for Sydney’s F1. Shouldn’t impact us this draft and helps next year. Dean, mid 20s picks, ison and more points next year sounds like a good outcome.

Overall, after playing with the draft sim, I think the mooted * trade is a slam dunk. Big thanks to Pommy for creating such an excellent tool!

 

[Milshouse]

Just let teams draft Dean at 2 or what ever and then get him in few years
F#%k the ransom

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Just let teams draft Dean at 2 or what ever and then get him in few years
F#%k the ransom

Why would Dean come back in a few years if we pass on him for essentially saying we don't rate you enough to pick you?

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Between trade week and harry Dean, Big footy has lost the plot more than usual this year

 

[Milshouse]

Why would Dean come back in a few years if we pass on him for essentially saying we don't rate you enough to pick you?

Because pick 2 or whatever is too high

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Because pick 2 or whatever is too high

According to who?

 

[Milshouse]

According to who?

Me I guess

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Me I guess

I think that pretty much sums it up.

 

[DZ4]

It’s an interesting question. Where do we actually draw the line?

Pick 1 for Dean? Pick 2? What happens if a club throws out a bid at 15 for Ison? Do we get bent over again?

9+11 is a great draft hand that would land us two really decent talents. I would prefer to take Dean even if at slight overs, Ison I’m neither here nor there on, but some of the rumours of high bids are getting ridiculous. We wouldn’t be the first club to say no to another taking the piss. I don’t care what anyone says, Dean isn’t a top 3 or even 5 kid in this crop, Ison might just sneak into the top 30, seems like we’re getting taken for a ride.

 

[Michael Jezz]

I will play this game.

Currently we have fairly sizeable list holes in key positions at both ends.

At pick 9 and 11 we are likely to be able to pick up maybe Schubert or Marsh.

Dean is the top Key defensive prospect and we get him for discount.

Picking up a slow inside mid to get lost in the mix behind Cripps and Hewett and Cerra and Lord and Ben Silvagni doesn't make sense.

Dovaston makes more sense, but at the cost of a perfect list fit ?

This isn't about sentimentality, we need key backs and forwards and we need good users going inside 50.

Dean and Ison gets us two thirds of the way there

Great...hope Dean & Ison deliver

 

[chuncey]

I will play this game.

Currently we have fairly sizeable list holes in key positions at both ends.

At pick 9 and 11 we are likely to be able to pick up maybe Schubert or Marsh.

Dean is the top Key defensive prospect and we get him for discount.

Picking up a slow inside mid to get lost in the mix behind Cripps and Hewett and Cerra and Lord and Ben Silvagni doesn't make sense.

Dovaston makes more sense, but at the cost of a perfect list fit ?

This isn't about sentimentality, we need key backs and forwards and we need good users going inside 50.

Dean and Ison gets us two thirds of the way there

Ben Silvagni? Camporealle perhaps.

 

[dangertroy]

If he goes in the Top 3, then we're getting a Top 3 pick as a father-son.

Dean's star keeps rising, we've got the points to cover a bid, and we're still upset about it.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

It’s an interesting question. Where do we actually draw the line?

Pick 1 for Dean? Pick 2? What happens if a club throws out a bid at 15 for Ison? Do we get bent over again?

9+11 is a great draft hand that would land us two really decent talents. I would prefer to take Dean even if at slight overs, Ison I’m neither here nor there on, but some of the rumours of high bids are getting ridiculous. We wouldn’t be the first club to say no to another taking the piss. I don’t care what anyone says, Dean isn’t a top 3 or even 5 kid in this crop, Ison might just sneak into the top 30, seems like we’re getting taken for a ride.

I'm gonna ask the same question as I did above...

According to who?

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I was referring to the idea of ‘working with’ Richmond and WCE to ensure they don’t bid on Dean.

You work with whoever we can get the best deal out of. It’s easy to see a world where we get our best result from working with them.

 

[DZ4]

I'm gonna ask the same question as I did above...

According to who?

According to myself, according to many well respected draft watchers who watch a heap more underage football than myself, and after a quick look at your posting history, even you believe a bid in the top 3 would be a reach for Dean. A bid there would be a pure piss take to force our hand.

But, opinion’s are like assholes as we all know. Time will tell.

 

[Milshouse]

I think that pretty much sums it up.

Was just saying no to a ransom, no need to be a d#$k

 

[Red_man2008]

I think west coast would be less likely to bid on Dean if we were to have a heap of second and third rounders to match as it has no impact on us.

 

[dangertroy]

You work with whoever we can get the best deal out of. It’s easy to see a world where we get our best result from working with them.

Yes, but what does 'working with them' mean? Colluding with them so that they don't pick Dean with their bids? AKA Draft tampering?

The only way to 'work' with them is to trade up so that they can't use their bids to pick Dean. West Coast might bid on Dean with their second pick, so do we trade 9 and 11 for 2 and 41? If so, then do we pick Dean with 2, wasting all our draft capital? Or pick someone else, and then when a bid comes in a few picks lower, have no way to match it and lose him anyway?

The club will be doing all the work it needs to in order to get the best deal we can that will secure Dean, Ison and more. We don't need to 'work with' West Coast and Richmond to get the best deal.

 

[lukep_86]

Thanks to those who are smarter than me and have explained clearly how our pick swap will work, why it's beneficial for us and how some picks will actually shift up due to bids.

Much appreciated

 

[macky99]

I think west coast would be less likely to bid on Dean if we were to have a heap of second and third rounders to match as it has no impact on us.

That is were we have left ourselves exposed, we should have left a pick in the 30's seems like not even Austin was expecting Dean to go top 5 which seemed very unlikely until a few weeks ago.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

According to myself, according to many well respected draft watchers who watch a heap more underage football than myself, and after a quick look at your posting history even you believe a bid in the top 3 would be a reach for Dean. A bid there would be a pure piss take to force our hand.

But, opinion’s are like assholes as we all know. Time will tell.

Well the only thing that really matters is that a select group of recruiting teams have Dean rated in the top 3 and they'll coincidentally be selecting before us this year. There was an article published just today that stated the Eagles see Dean as a potential number 1 talent equal to that of Duursma. Duursma himself said he'd take Dean at number 1 too.

I have Dean at 6, I watched pretty close to all of his matches this year, as I did Cody and Ison (when he wasn't playing for Scotch College). While I don't think he's a top 3 talent, I certainly don't think its farfetched that a team would have him rated a bit higher than I do.

The drama around Dean has come from posters in here who have serially underrated him all year. They've somehow convinced some of the more casual followers of the draft that he's not worth matching a bid on early.

You won't see Brisbane or GCS fans questioning whether it's worth the resources to match a bid on Annable or Uwland because they've been rated as top prospects from a long way out, their fans have expected to pay up for 12 months already.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Was just saying no to a ransom, no need to be a d#$k

It's not a ransom, it's a few spots ahead of where many have him rated.

We're not talking about a top 5 bid on a player who's widely rated in the 20-30 range.

 

[Milshouse]

It's not a ransom, it's a few spots ahead of where many have him rated.

We're not talking about a top 5 bid on a player who's widely rated in the 20-30 range.

Eagles said to be possibly selecting at 1 or 2 is a ransom imho

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Eagles said to be possibly selecting at 1 or 2 is a ransom imho

Well we all better get used to it, we'll almost certainly be paying the same for Cody next year.

Dean at 2 will be considered a reach, but we will undoubtedly match a bid on him there. He's a good enough talent to pay that price.

 

[GoBlues!]

Great...hope Dean & Ison deliver

I would hope anyone we picked delivers, goes without saying ffs.