Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Matty411]

I've come to terms with the mail (Cal is almost never wrong) but it'd be hilarious if WC were bluffing hard, didn't bid on Dean after we traded 9+11.

I suppose we just wait / ask for extra time after the bid comes in to allow time for trades though.

 

[Blue__Balls]

West Coast are showing with their said bid on Dean they actually don't know how to work the system. It works against them.

Maybe.

Maybe they're also working with Essendon.

Bid on Uwland at 2, wipe a bunch of GC picks.

Bid on Dean at 3, we trade 10 (formerly 9) to Essendon and 12 (formerly 11) to NM for a bunch of picks in the 20s (plus a future second rounder) and match the bid.

Then WC trade 4 to Essendon for 8 and 11 (formerly 6 and 9).

Essendon were apparently keen on CDT, WC seem to like him but I'm not sure he's a major need for them, and picks 8 and 11 might appeal to them more. Essendon get CDT and retain pick 7 (formerly 5).

 

[Aphrodite]

 

[carlton_99]

With the proposed deals we are essentially trading (based on where each bid comes as per Twomey's phantom guide)

9 + 11 + 54

for

3 + 22 + 35 + 36 + F2


Hard to be unhappy with that. If it ends up panning out like that I can see us moving that 2nd pick in the 30-40 range on for an F3 like someone else mentioned earlier.

And 9 and 11 are really 12 and 14 if Dean didn't exist or we chose not to match.

 

[Poorman53]

Maybe.

Maybe they're also working with Essendon.

Bid on Uwland at 2, wipe a bunch of GC picks.

Bid on Dean at 3, we trade 10 (formerly 9) to Essendon and 12 (formerly 11) to NM for a bunch of picks in the 20s (plus a future second rounder) and match the bid.

Then WC trade 4 to Essendon for 8 and 11 (formerly 6 and 9).

Essendon were apparently keen on CDT, WC seem to like him but I'm not sure he's a major need for them, and picks 6 and 9 might appeal to them more. Essendon get CDT and retain pick 7 (formerly 5).

That's a horrible deal for Essendon, would never happen.

 

[chickendippas]

Would everyone still be up in arms if the bid came at pick 3 under the previous DVI system? Either it wouldn’t have happened due to no value in burning a bunch of picks in the 30s/40s, or the difference in cost would be negligible.

Not sure how the LM team would have been able to swing a different outcome with the Charlie trade running down to the wire. Even then, would we have received a better return for those picks than what has been proposed with Essendon and North? Probably not.

It’s rough that we haven’t been able to take advantage of (rort) the system as others have, but it’s also a clear as day example why the current system shouldn’t be tightened further without more data.

 

[josephone]

Another point on Dean and the idea that we should take pick 9 and 11 instead (which I've seen a few times).

None of the last 10 players taken at Pick 9 has been All Australian. Only two have played 100 games.

Only one of the last 10 players taken at Pick 11 has been All Australian (Nasiah). Again only two have played 100 games.

So the idea that we are losing out on superstars is a bit misguided. These picks aren't going at a high strike rate in recent years.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

You can’t really argue against a bid at 3 for Dean not being overs because the expert WCE list manager says otherwise, then on the other hand claim Taylor and Lindsay amongst others as sliders. They will get picked where they get picked.

It’s all opinions but some are getting slammed for theirs.

I said Taylor would slide because he was concerningly good at Mario Kart on Gettable...

 

[Opium]

I did feel at the time that chasing Sydney's, 2027 1st was a bit of a PR thing so the club could say it got 3 1sts for Curnow.

From a practical perspective we might have been better off forgoing it and giving Sydney less back in the trade.

I agree. The two first rounders this year and next will be swallowed up by father son bids. Keep in mind we also sent them back pick 31 & 42.

 

[Soapy V]

Powerful midfielder with great skills

 

[Opium]

Another point on Dean and the idea that we should take pick 9 and 11 instead (which I've seen a few times).

None of the last 10 players taken at Pick 9 has been All Australian. Only two have played 100 games.

Only one of the last 10 players taken at Pick 11 has been All Australian (Nasiah). Again only two have played 100 games.

So the idea that we are losing out on superstars is a bit misguided. These picks aren't going at a high strike rate in recent years.

Now go through the list of how many top 10 KPD have played 100 games or more.

 

[carlton_99]

I agree. The two first rounders this year and next will be swallowed up by father son bids. Keep in mind we also sent them back pick 21.

We didn't give Syd pick 21. It was used in a deal to get us points from the Hawks.

 

[Stamos]

Keep in mind we also sent them back pick 21.

No, we didn't.

 

[Opium]

We didn't give Syd pick 21. It was used in a deal to get us points from the Hawks.

I edited the post as it was pick 31

 

[Soapy V]

Notice Archie Ludowyke has slipped down most orders and not picked in Twomeys Top 30
Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro
FWD, 197cm

Not sure why he has slipped so far (i know he was inj) Might be available late for us? Mobile Key Forward that looks good to me. Very Jeremy Cameron

5

Jeremy Cameron

Age

32

Ht

196cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.5

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

2.6

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

2.9

2star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.4

4star

G

2.0

5star

like

Get him and Dean and it could set us up KP wise

 

[ferrisb]

Excuse the intrusion, but I believe you started this by trading Owies to us.

He's a role player at best but he did kick 60 goals across his last two seasons with us.

Going at less than half a goal a game in 2025 probably says more about WCE than it does about Owies.

 

[carlton_99]

 

[carlton_99]

I edited the post as it was pick 31

But are you now saying 31 and 42 is better than that 3rd first? Like what exactly should we have sent back because Curnow alone is not worth 3 1sts and Hayward (who on his own is worth a 1st).

 

[bradfisher14]

Looks like they're preparing for an early Addinsal bid.

 

[carlton_99]

Looks like they're preparing for an early Addinsal bid.

Would have been nice if Eagles also bid on Patterson and Annable.

 

[Soapy V]

I reckon Richmond would take him with one of their picks.

Probably but I would be intersted to know who WCE would pick between Dean & CDT

 

[Stamos]

Would have been nice if Eagles also bid on Patterson and Annable.

Sounds like it will be Tiges making those bids before they pick

 

[dangertroy]

Another point on Dean and the idea that we should take pick 9 and 11 instead (which I've seen a few times).

None of the last 10 players taken at Pick 9 has been All Australian. Only two have played 100 games.

Only one of the last 10 players taken at Pick 11 has been All Australian (Nasiah). Again only two have played 100 games.

So the idea that we are losing out on superstars is a bit misguided. These picks aren't going at a high strike rate in recent years.

Got to be cautious of your sample there - players taken in the last 4 years wouldn’t have an opportunity to hit 100 games unless their teams played multiple finals.
Take your sample back to 2011-2020 to give everyone the chance to get to 100 games.
Pick 9: 3AAs, 6 x 100+ games.
Pick 11: 1AA (Toby Greene), 5x 100+ games.

 

[carlton_99]

Dean at 3, Ison at 22 and Rodriguez at 39.

AFL Draft 2025: 54 picks, bidding drama in ESPN's final, full Phantom Draft

The AFL Draft is almost upon us, and here is ESPN's full, final Phantom Draft. Who goes where? How many trades get done, and where to the bids fall?

www.espn.com.au

 

[Stamos]

Got to be cautious if your sample there - players taken in the last 4 years wouldn’t have an opportunity to hit 100 games unless their teams played multiple finals.
Take your sample back to 2011-2020 to give everyone the chance to get to 100 games.
Pick 9: 3AAs, 6 x 100+ games.
Pick 11: 1AA (Toby Greene), 5x 100+ games.

Also, we wouldn't be picking at 9 and 11 if we held our picks. It would be 12 + 14.