List Mgmt. 2025 List Management Discussion - Part 3

[Hubnester]

2025 List Management Discussion - Part 3

Now that our season is over, and news is starting to break - it's time for a fresh thread.

This thread is to discuss all things list management - trades, draft, free agency, delistings and more.
As we are now officially in our off-season, we'll be wanting to keep this thread more strictly on-topic than the previous iterations.
Be respectful. You are allowed to disagree with someone - but play the ball, not the man. Repeat offenders will have their posting rights revoked.

Thanks to Lore once again for this incredibly useful spreadsheet.

2025 KEY DATES
Free Agency Period: Friday, October 3rd - Friday, October 10th
Trade Period: Monday, October 6th - Wednesday, October 15th
AFL Draft: Wednesday, November 19th - Thursday, November 20th

See Also:
2025 Year in Review Rumours & Confirmed Movements 2025 Draft Discussion
​

 

[CaptainRisky]

What are they smoking on Twitter?

Get off the gear Paul , you're cooked Pal

 

[Moquo]

Where is tony74

Haven't seen any mention of Windhager from Tony at all.

 

[Teflon]

I like that we are having a crack
It feels a bit like 2 years or bust…
But even with names recruits coming …we are further than 2 years away ….
Aleer TDK Ryan aren’t pushing us into flag contention ….i know our kids will develop …so will other sides ….
Nervous we’ve gone hard early OR
Is 2 years to get us into contention …Boss steps out then Enright has enough for a sustained tilt ??
High risk

 

[Klaatu]

I like that we are having a crack
It feels a bit like 2 years or bust…
But even with names recruits coming …we are further than 2 years away ….
Aleer TDK Ryan aren’t pushing us into flag contention ….i know our kids will develop …so will other sides ….
Nervous we’ve gone hard early OR
Is 2 years to get us into contention …Boss steps out then Enright has enough for a sustained tilt ??
High risk

High risk is better then no risk, what would you rather crawl along for another 3 or 4 years & in the mean time Nas goes & Sincs, Wilkie retire, your choice & we still stay in what 11,12,13th spot.

 

[gubby88]

I like that we are having a crack
It feels a bit like 2 years or bust…
But even with names recruits coming …we are further than 2 years away ….
Aleer TDK Ryan aren’t pushing us into flag contention ….i know our kids will develop …so will other sides ….
Nervous we’ve gone hard early OR
Is 2 years to get us into contention …Boss steps out then Enright has enough for a sustained tilt ??
High risk

honest question. did you think prestia and nankervis would have pushed Richmond into flag contention? Sometimes a right fit is all thats needed

 

[Browny2Carlisle]

Seems like people are starting to catch onto what's (probably) going on here.

Just to run through the numbers again:

- The maximum amount the Saints can possibly have banked to carry forward and pay above the cap is $3.1m excess to spend over the next 4 years.

- A max of just over $900k/year which would use up most within 3 years.

- We're paying Nas $2mil /year and reportedly TDK $1.8m early years then decreasing later in the contract.

- The cap itself only increases slightly in 2026 and 2027.

Given these circumstances, it makes sense we'd need to tighten the belt with some contract renegotiations.

We're already seeing the consequences of St Kilda's big cash splash on new players.

Not true. Without knowing the salaries of all players for 2026 and beyond it’s all just speculation. I’d say this off season has been planned for a long time and not just a last minute cash splash

 

[Anythings_sipposible]

I'll tell you what, I'm glad we didn't do that trade for Essendon's first pick last year.

Melbourne ended up trading:

Pick 28
Pick 40
Pick 46
Pick 54
Pick 65
2025 Pick 5

For:

Xavier Lindsay
2025 Pick 40 (traded to Brisbane)

Ignoring those later picks, that means they could have ended up with:

One of Shanahan, J Whitlock or Sims at 28

One of Boxshall, Gross or Dodson at 40 or 46

And probably one of Sharp, Cummings, Marsh, a different but weirdly similar Lindsay or Schubert at the 2025 pick 5.

So 3 good players for a team that is now rebuilding and will want to get quantity in.

X Lindsay is fine, but people went a bit insane for last year's draft

 

[Sully111]

I like that we are having a crack
It feels a bit like 2 years or bust…
But even with names recruits coming …we are further than 2 years away ….
Aleer TDK Ryan aren’t pushing us into flag contention ….i know our kids will develop …so will other sides ….
Nervous we’ve gone hard early OR
Is 2 years to get us into contention …Boss steps out then Enright has enough for a sustained tilt ??
High risk

It is high risk.

I'm not sure how I feel about it all.

Jury is still out on Sos for me. Yes we signed Nas on 2mil a season but I'm not entirely convinced a better deal couldn't have been worked out sooner.

I'm hopeful TDK can be a gun but f*ck me it's a lot of money to spend on a ruckman.

Aleer doesn't do it for me.

Most excited about our young brigade... which includes Windy.

I eagerly await the insults I'll receive from some for not doing cartwheels yet.

 

[PJays]

Without knowing the salaries of all players for 2026 and beyond it’s all just speculation. I’d say this off season has been planned for a long time and not just a last minute cash splash

You're partly right but you're missing the point.

We know many players are out-of-contract end 2026. And many veterans OOC end 27 (Wood, Hill, Macrae, Wilkie). With only a small number already on long-term deals (King, Higgins etc).

So with front-ended deals, carry forward excess and a relatively clean sheet, they've planned a raid. And it's coming off, bit-by-bit.

What I'm saying is, the cap isn't unlimited and undoubtedly this will have flow-on effects with attempts to re-sign existing players. Maybe we'll keep Windy, but it'll be someone else in question next year.

While we may be happy getting TDK and others, just don't be surprised when we aren't happy losing existing players in coming years.

 

[The Punter]

The salary cap release valve is Marshall and Steele.

 

[BrutThough]

I thought the Port fans were insane but West Coast fans genuinely think Ryan will nab them a first rounder or promising young player.

 

[Minga]

I'll tell you what, I'm glad we didn't do that trade for Essendon's first pick last year.

Melbourne ended up trading:

Pick 28
Pick 40
Pick 46
Pick 54
Pick 65
2025 Pick 5

For:

Xavier Lindsay
2025 Pick 40 (traded to Brisbane)

Ignoring those later picks, that means they could have ended up with:

One of Shanahan, J Whitlock or Sims at 28

One of Boxshall, Gross or Dodson at 40 or 46

And probably one of Sharp, Cummings, Marsh, a different but weirdly similar Lindsay or Schubert at the 2025 pick 5.

So 3 good players for a team that is now rebuilding and will want to get quantity in.

X Lindsay is fine, but people went a bit insane for last year's draft

They backed themselves in to climb the ladder again. And frankly their list was good enough to do so.

Alas, in the end Essendon having an obscene amount of injuries saved Melbourne from being bottom 4 this year, that’s how disastrous their year was. And of course, Nas was the final nail in the coffin for Goodwin.

 

[Sully111]

The salary cap release valve is Marshall and Steele.

I think you're probably right.

 

[holllywood]

I'll tell you what, I'm glad we didn't do that trade for Essendon's first pick last year.

Melbourne ended up trading:

Pick 28
Pick 40
Pick 46
Pick 54
Pick 65
2025 Pick 5

For:

Xavier Lindsay
2025 Pick 40 (traded to Brisbane)

Ignoring those later picks, that means they could have ended up with:

One of Shanahan, J Whitlock or Sims at 28

One of Boxshall, Gross or Dodson at 40 or 46

And probably one of Sharp, Cummings, Marsh, a different but weirdly similar Lindsay or Schubert at the 2025 pick 5.

So 3 good players for a team that is now rebuilding and will want to get quantity in.

X Lindsay is fine, but people went a bit insane for last year's draft

There was this study done in the NFL (The Loser's Curse by C Massey and R Thaler) where they found that NFL teams pay a premium for current-year picks and systematically undervalue future picks.

The Melbourne deal is a textbook example of The Loser's Curse - burning future value for an immediate draft sugar hit.

 

[Speck]

I do think we're pushing harder to improve, particularly because we need to convince Nas to stay longer term, but it doesn't feel like we're doing this at the expense of the draft. We're doing both. We can improve quickly AND set up long term.

TDK costs no picks, Aleer and Ryan are unlikely to impact our first rounder much. Fincher we can combine later picks for, then you take a few swings later like Garcia, Boxshall and Dodson were.

If you add in Marshall potentially moving on then our draft position likely gets even stronger.

 

[Saints TV]

I do think we're pushing harder to improve, particularly because we need to convince Nas to stay longer term, but it doesn't feel like we're doing this at the expense of the draft. We're doing both. We can improve quickly AND set up long term.

TDK costs no picks, Aleer and Ryan are unlikely to impact our first rounder much. Fincher we can combine later picks for, then you take a few swings later like Garcia, Boxshall and Dodson were.

If you add in Marshall potentially moving on then our draft position likely gets even stronger.

Spot on. The Pres always said we wanted to hit 4 drafts before we made this sort of move. 21, 22, 23, 24 - it's worked up until this point building the young core. Now to add some key pillars.

 

[King Patty]

Melbourne ended up trading:

Pick 28
Pick 40
Pick 46
Pick 54
Pick 65
2025 Pick 5

For:

Xavier Lindsay
2025 Pick 40 (traded to Brisbane)

Did the Dees think that Kalani White was going to soak up their first round pick this year?
I think last years draft was pretty strong in mid to the back end.

I wanted Shanahan, but he was gone, before essendons next pick.
Angus Clarke, Zak Johnson look like they are going to be serious players for Essendon.

Saints trade future second for Boxshall was good for saints and probably goes to match Sweid (NGA) for Essendon win-win.

 

[Leap of Faith]

They backed themselves in to climb the ladder again. And frankly their list was good enough to do so.

Alas, in the end Essendon having an obscene amount of injuries saved Melbourne from being bottom 4 this year, that’s how disastrous their year was. And of course, Nas was the final nail in the coffin for Goodwin.

Sorry to be pedantic. But Essendon having an obscene amount of injuries is not "alas". Any hardship, bad luck or self inflicted, that befalls the drug cheats or Carlton is most excellent.

 

[Anythings_sipposible]

There was this study done in the NFL (The Loser's Curse by C Massey and R Thaler) where they found that NFL teams pay a premium for current-year picks and systematically undervalue future picks.

The Melbourne deal is a textbook example of The Loser's Curse - burning future value for an immediate draft sugar hit.

I don't know much about the NFL, but I know Oklahoma City Thunder basically used this type of trading to build their Championship list

 

[bird_man]

Windy's getting concerning.

Yeah if he hasn't signed this week I'll be starting to panic a bit.

I think it's just crazy we have a longer term deal in front of a 29 year old small forward that looks to be past his best than we do for one of our best young prospects.

 

[ThomasR]

Angus McLennan DELISTED -> TDK
Arie Schoenmaker ?
Dougal Howard EXTENDED
Harry Boyd DELISTED -> 1RDP
Isaac Keeler EXTENDED
Jack Carroll (UFA) ?
Jimmy Webster (UFA) RETIRED -> Fincher
Liam O'Connell EXTENDED
Liam Stocker (UFA) EXTENDED
Marcus Windhager ?
Max Heath ?
Ryan Byrnes ?
Zaine Cordy (UFA) DELISTED -> 4RDP
Zak Jones ?

I'm guessing we may know more this time tomorrow.

By the sounds of it we'll need a few more list spots freed up.

McLennan and Boyd were rookie listed

only Webster and Cordy off the primary list so far

if we are to bring in 3 and draft the mandatory 3... seems like 4 of Byrnes/Heath/Jones/Arie/Carroll will go (unless we trade Windy Marshall and/or Steele)

might need to promote Caminiti as well? has had 3 years on the rookie list

 

[phantom13]

Spot on. The Pres always said we wanted to hit 4 drafts before we made this sort of move. 21, 22, 23, 24 - it's worked up until this point building the young core. Now to add some key pillars.

I think the concern is what happens to the young core weve invested into if we keep bringing in guys to take positions and money from them.

TDK pushes Marshall out but people still wanna retain a 30 year old Marshall. List spots and money dictate we gotta lose a few.

Id rather Marshall and Steele go than Windy and co and before people go all STOP PISSING THE BED YOU PUSSY im speculating, none of it has happened yet and im not particualrly concerned im just noting it.

We will lose some of what weve got and i back the admin to make sure those losses are the right ones but we cant keep em all.

 

[stavro#4]

I thought the Port fans were insane but West Coast fans genuinely think Ryan will nab them a first rounder or promising young player.

Nah most are much more balanced. Just a couple who have their heads in the clouds.

Majority understand they will probably get unders and just let him go.

 

[stavro#4]

McLennan and Boyd were rookie listed

only Webster and Cordy off the primary list so far

if we are to bring in 3 and draft the mandatory 3... seems like 4 of Byrnes/Heath/Jones/Arie/Carroll will go (unless we trade Windy Marshall and/or Steele)

might need to promote Caminiti as well? has had 3 years on the rookie list

2 off the rookie list…

And I’ve been told we will rookie campigli and the same bloke thinks we like Voss as a rookie aswell

 

[True Believer]

I think the concern is what happens to the young core weve invested into if we keep bringing in guys to take positions and money from them.

TDK pushes Marshall out but people still wanna retain a 30 year old Marshall. List spots and money dictate we gotta lose a few.

Id rather Marshall and Steele go than Windy and co and before people go all STOP PISSING THE BED YOU PUSSY im speculating, none of it has happened yet and im not particualrly concerned im just noting it.

We will lose some of what weve got and i back the admin to make sure those losses are the right ones but we cant keep em all.

I think this is probably the reality that most are missing - there will be current players that we elect to move on to make room for the incoming recruits, and not all of those departing will be retirements or those that supporters will be happy to say goodbye to! The only one that has me concerned at all is Windy. I think his heart is with the club, but that's why they have managers! There is still plenty of time to get it done with him, but I think there is probably a lot more moving parts than we know......