List Mgmt. 2025 List Management Discussion - Part 3

[Hubnester]

2025 List Management Discussion - Part 3

Now that our season is over, and news is starting to break - it's time for a fresh thread.

This thread is to discuss all things list management - trades, draft, free agency, delistings and more.
As we are now officially in our off-season, we'll be wanting to keep this thread more strictly on-topic than the previous iterations.
Be respectful. You are allowed to disagree with someone - but play the ball, not the man. Repeat offenders will have their posting rights revoked.

Thanks to Lore once again for this incredibly useful spreadsheet.

2025 KEY DATES
Free Agency Period: Friday, October 3rd - Friday, October 10th
Trade Period: Monday, October 6th - Wednesday, October 15th
AFL Draft: Wednesday, November 19th - Thursday, November 20th

See Also:
2025 Year in Review Rumours & Confirmed Movements 2025 Draft Discussion
​

 

[stavro#4]

Yeah but that's not normal right.

They actually went backwards.

That Achilles ruined Gresham.

We all forget, but his first 2 games in 2021. Was also having a decent 2020 before the stress fractures.

28.5 disposals
8.5 inside 50s
5.5 clearances
0.5 Goals per game
1 direct goal assist per game.

 

[PJays]

Morris did not mention Melbourne doing the same with May, Lever, Melksham, Ben Brown & Hibbert from Essendon

It was referring to teams who try to build Rome in a day, making heaps of moves in one off-season.

(Including St Kilda 2013 was ridiculous, but anyway).

Melbourne added May, Lever, Hibberd, Melksham, Brown over a 5 year period

Much like Hawthorn adding Gibson, Burgoyne, Hale, Lake, Gunston and Mcevoy over 5-6 years.

No one's suggesting you can't successfully add players from other clubs.

The implication is doing everything in one off-season indicates rushing and may result in poor decision making.

The implication also is, when you're a struggling team outside the 8 you'll always pay overs, and that doesn't work long-term (eg Polec at North, and McKay at Essendon looking the same).

Better to focus on drafting, or trading for young players who won't demand the earth in salary or draft assets.

Eg Steele, Higgins, Membrey, Bruce. The first 3 were quality players who did/will play 150-200 games for St Kilda. Bruce played 99 then we got back better draft picks than we initially traded for him. Huge wins all round.

 

[Present Not Past]

Bruce, Delaney, Weller, Longer and... I'm missing one

Shane Savage.

 

[ScrappyDo]

I personally just don't see a world where NAS and Owens resign and Windy leaves to some bottom feeder club for a few extra bucks

I'm very confident he'll stay with his mates and this is all posturing

Exactly. I think it's once again the manager squeezing whatever he can and it'll get done in due course. If Windy is set on a bigger pay check or becoming a centre clearance mid then it may just be a matter that he has to look elsewhere.

 

[The Punter]

It was referring to teams who try to build Rome in a day, making heaps of moves in one off-season.

(Including St Kilda 2013 was ridiculous, but anyway).

Melbourne added May, Lever, Hibberd, Melksham, Brown over a 5 year period

Much like Hawthorn adding Gibson, Burgoyne, Hale, Lake, Gunston and Mcevoy over 5-6 years.

No one's suggesting you can't successfully add players from other clubs.

The implication is doing everything in one off-season indicates rushing and may result in poor decision making.

The implication also is, when you're a struggling team outside the 8 you'll always pay overs, and that doesn't work long-term (eg Polec at North, and McKay at Essendon looking the same).

Better to focus on drafting, or trading for young players who won't demand the earth in salary or draft assets.

Eg Steele, Higgins, Membrey, Bruce. The first 3 were quality players who did/will play 150-200 games for St Kilda. Bruce played 99 then we got back better draft picks than we initially traded for him. Huge wins all round.

The only issue here is opportunity. What if all the opportunity to bring in players from other clubs happens at once? It's not easy to manipulate a drip feed of opportunity, although Hawthorn managed it to huge success and Melbourne managed it for success we'd all settle for.

 

[phantom13]

I get that they aren't at his production just yet.. but all could be, and at much less hit to the cap.

Why not just dump everyone who costs a lot for someone who might be good?

Dump King for Keeler?

That principle doesnt work all that well in practise.

 

[stavro#4]

The wins are relatively minor on the field and cost us plenty in cap and flexability moving forward so it’s questionable.

Just as an example TDK + Flanders isn’t a win of any real significance over Marshall + Windhager and it’s got to be a dollar loss of $1 million plus. The kicker is what do we do with the Windhager pick ?, that’s what will determine the outcome of that exercise and if we’re using it on a trade we’re now down $1.8 million at least.

Just look at how much we improve on the field. Silvagni I like that’s a win, Ryan over a fit butler not much imo, Aleer nothing in the short term.

Again it’s all about part two or all we’ve done is make noise. If part two are just B graders or worse like CMac currently is then we’ve spent a lot of money to improve slightly. A slight improvement won’t get us another 5 or 6 wins which we’d need to make finals.

I’m just pondering what we’d look like with a fit team if we’d stopped at TDK, Silvagni and Ryan then added a mid using pick 7. Marshall stays, Windhager stays, Steele stays. We could also have taken pick 7 to the draft and picked up Fincher with later picks.

Anyway you tell me what you think of it all. I think there’s plenty to to play out and some genuine concerns about what we do from here.

Also I definitely don’t see Windhager leaving as a win, far from it.

This is Flanders 2024 vs Windy this year. I don’t know whether it’s role or injury that’s impacting Flanders right now. But that 2024 is a significant upgrade on windy.



This is 2025 TDK v Marshall. (Left to right).
Keep in mind, people are slamming TDK. But this is half a season as a #1 ruck and half a season as a forward v Marshall as a sole ruck.

TDKs data set rounds 1 v 12 were comparable to Gawn. I posted awhile back.



Worst case you get Marshall but 4 years younger. Best case you can the next elite ruck.

How can you argue only a marginal gain?

 

[Broski]

I, like many here, want to see Windy stay but I can't fathom paying him the reported $800,000-$900,000. Ultimately, I am leaning on the side of him eventually staying, but I could easily see him jump at the chance of money and security.

For several years, I attached myself probably too heavily to certain players and felt flat when they left, but I am now at the stage of wanting us to be unrelenting in its search for a flag, even if that means a favourite leaving for a net positive return.

Toyota Camrys are great reliable vehicles. They might not be able to reach the heights of an expensive sports car but they are good for the price. However, I will feel slightly more negative about a Camry if I was trying to be sold one for $90,000.

 

[phantom13]

I’d say the acquisition of talls and even Flyin Ryan as he is an incredible overhead mark. Play into what Cal Twomey has written this morning.

I’ve mentioned it a few times. Specifically after the Carlton defeat as they murdered us on intercept and just aerially in general.

“Champion Data's stats showed teams scored from 42 per cent of inside 50s on the weekend, down from the average of 45 per cent this year, highlighting the defensive impact of those intercept players.

That number alone (three per cent down) doesn't seem like much, but it would drop a team from sixth to 15th for the season, so the discrepancy is real. Only two rounds this season were lower on average.”



As a side, we improved our clearance numbers and just general midfield numbers. But we got very little from hit outs to advantage and our ball use hurt us.

It seems we would be addressing those 3 items.

I sort of get the idea but its gonna naturally have a downside.

There is no way were playing a defensive 6 of JSOS, Aleer, Wilkie, Camma/Howard, Tauru and IMO Wilkie and Camma/Howard MUST play so were either moving (which creates a problem up forward) or dumping Tauru, Aleer or JSOS which then begs the question of why recruit them?

Were also not playing two first choice rucks, im still sure we trade Roma so i dont really care about this one.

We can play C-Mac, Flanders, Windy, Nas, Steele and Macrae. We probably cant play many more on top of that so Pou, Garcia, Boxshall, Wilson are all then playing twos when theyve been predominantly ones players. Competition, depth etc are all good but some of those guys will walk at seasons end. Again, this one doesnt bother me too much but its worth noting.

I still dont really see it with Ryan but Max King is gonna make far more difference than he will, plus the flow on of Max for Sharman and others cant be overstated but if Tauru goes forward then King, Ryan, Tauru, Sharman, Owens and Keeler (who i still think is prime for forward/2nd ruck) is too tall.

Its alot of change and alot of management. Were gonna shed some to do it and then it becomes a question of how much do we shed and does it simplyt move us sideways rather than forward.

Again, im not anti it, i like the agression and the direction but it has risks.

 

[phantom13]

Whats the windy contract discrepancy being reported?

Weve match the duration (4 years) but were at $700 Melbourne is at $800 is that right?

 

[stavro#4]

I sort of get the idea but its gonna naturally have a downside.

There is no way were playing a defensive 6 of JSOS, Aleer, Wilkie, Camma/Howard, Tauru and IMO Wilkie and Camma/Howard MUST play so were either moving (which creates a problem up forward) or dumping Tauru, Aleer or JSOS which then begs the question of why recruit them?

Were also not playing two first choice rucks, im still sure we trade Roma so i dont really care about this one.

We can play C-Mac, Flanders, Windy, Nas, Steele and Macrae. We probably cant play many more on top of that so Pou, Garcia, Boxshall, Wilson are all then playing twos when theyve been predominantly ones players. Competition, depth etc are all good but some of those guys will walk at seasons end. Again, this one doesnt bother me too much but its worth noting.

I still dont really see it with Ryan but Max King is gonna make far more difference than he will, plus the flow on of Max for Sharman and others cant be overstated but if Tauru goes forward then King, Ryan, Tauru, Sharman, Owens and Keeler (who i still think is prime for forward/2nd ruck) is too tall.

Its alot of change and alot of management. Were gonna shed some to do it and then it becomes a question of how much do we shed and does it simplyt move us sideways rather than forward.

Again, im not anti it, i like the agression and the direction but it has risks.

If Marshall goes. Camma has to play forward.

Wilkie probably plays on a smaller player next year. Even Jamie Elliott types. So it would still allow for Howard (FB) Aleer (CHB) Tauru Sinclair and a Hastie/Stocker.

 

[stavro#4]

Whats the windy contract discrepancy being reported?

Weve match the duration (4 years) but were at $700 Melbourne is at $800 is that right?

No reports on our money.

Just that Melbourne and north are at 800/5 years.

The rumour is we are arguing over 50k not that we are 50k off matching the offer.

 

[pebblesofsand]

Same morons said that Battle was the easiest player on the list to replace and that we wouldn't even notice. Most of them in a rage when they dared to make him AA. Your cognitive dissonance defies all evidence that we are competent at list management.

Jeez - you're carrying as if losing Battle cost us premiership. He is easily replaceable and will be easily replaced next year by either JSOS or Aleer with both costing us less than Battle and very little in draft picks. And in return we've got a Pick 7 who looks to have unlimited potential.

The issue this year was straight forward - lost Battle then lost Howard and Cordy to injury so the only players we had to fill gaps were fwds (Caminiti), inexperienced (Tauru) or not up to it (Schoenmaker).

The list will be better off next year without Battle than it was in 2024 with Battle - simple as that.

 

[beside the seaside]

If Marshall goes. Camma has to play forward.

Wilkie probably plays on a smaller player next year. Even Jamie Elliott types. So it would still allow for Howard (FB) Aleer (CHB) Tauru Sinclair and a Hastie/Stocker.

That concerns me re: Hammer as he has shown very little as a forward.

 

[g_TRAIN]

Whats the windy contract discrepancy being reported?

Weve match the duration (4 years) but were at $700 Melbourne is at $800 is that right?

This is the issue.

No one really knows, all these numbers being thrown around are ballpark at best and seem to be different every time they are reported.

Best estimate from what I've seen would be he's asking for 800k and we're offering 600-650k

Personally I think if we gave 700k he would stay. Its slightly overs but would be a show of faith in one of our core young leaders.

 

[beside the seaside]

Jeez - you're carrying as if losing Battle cost us premiership. He is easily replaceable and will be easily replaced next year by either JSOS or Aleer with both costing us less than Battle and very little in draft picks. And in return we've got a Pick 7 who looks to have unlimited potential.

The issue this year was straight forward - lost Battle then lost Howard and Cordy to injury so the only players we had to fill gaps were fwds (Caminiti), inexperienced (Tauru) or not up to it (Schoenmaker).

The list will be better off next year without Battle than it was in 2024 with Battle - simple as that.

Battle is an AA defender now. Also very durable and plays every week. In no way is he easily replaceable.

 

[g_TRAIN]

That concerns me re: Hammer as he has shown very little as a forward.

He's shown a bit for mine.

He's still really young, his type are often crap until they become really good. Josh Treacy is a good example but there are others.

 

[g_TRAIN]

Battle is an AA defender now. Also very durable and plays every week. In no way is he easily replaceable.

Good player but the fact he's AA now shits me.

He was better or at worst just as good last year and he wasn't even in the picture for AA.

 

[ScrappyDo]

It was referring to teams who try to build Rome in a day, making heaps of moves in one off-season.

(Including St Kilda 2013 was ridiculous, but anyway).

Melbourne added May, Lever, Hibberd, Melksham, Brown over a 5 year period

Much like Hawthorn adding Gibson, Burgoyne, Hale, Lake, Gunston and Mcevoy over 5-6 years.

No one's suggesting you can't successfully add players from other clubs.

The implication is doing everything in one off-season indicates rushing and may result in poor decision making.

The implication also is, when you're a struggling team outside the 8 you'll always pay overs, and that doesn't work long-term (eg Polec at North, and McKay at Essendon looking the same).

Better to focus on drafting, or trading for young players who won't demand the earth in salary or draft assets.

Eg Steele, Higgins, Membrey, Bruce. The first 3 were quality players who did/will play 150-200 games for St Kilda. Bruce played 99 then we got back better draft picks than we initially traded for him. Huge wins all round.

I don't think there's any one model that can be ruled in or out since the player movement market was untethered.
The current influx bears little resemblance to the 2013 & 2019 periods because the club has drafted its arse off and has a very good group of youngsters to underpin the trading.
Moreover there is a good coaching setup and admin in place to support the push. 2 of the incoming are for nothing, whilst the other 2* are low cost.
This admin finally understood the need to put the foundations in place before having another crack which is to be applauded and topping up at this point was the publicised plan. Personally l don't see the picture of what's driving their pursuit of several of the incoming but there's no doubt it makes the squad better so the rest will pan out over the season. As for the salaries being reported it's of no consequence since we don't ever get accurate figures.

 

[Anythings_sipposible]

If Marshall goes. Camma has to play forward.

Wilkie probably plays on a smaller player next year. Even Jamie Elliott types. So it would still allow for Howard (FB) Aleer (CHB) Tauru Sinclair and a Hastie/Stocker.

JSOS as well though. It feels like we're zeroing in on markers with high athleticism (Aleer, Tauru), rather than playing tradition big defenders (Howard, Caminiti). You'd assume the game plan is to get a lot of intercepts and third man up spoils, rather than beating forwards one on one. So you'd think the line up would be:

Aleer Wilkie Tauru
Sinclair JSOS Clark/Hastie/Stocker/Someone

If nothing else, it will be a lot of fun watching Aleer and Tauru jumping everywhere and at every thing, and seeing Wilkie and JSOS using their smarts. We'll be hoping to score a lot from turn over you'd imagine

 

[stavro#4]

That concerns me re: Hammer as he has shown very little as a forward.

34 goals 19 behinds from 33 games as an exclusive forward in 2023/24 as a 19/20 year old.

This year he has played down back for the majority of it.

I think other supporter bases would be very bullish if they had that prospect on their list.

 

[sauce_head]

It’s also digging deeper - so many journos now offer opinions that are often incorrect.

They need to give it context.

Our delistings thus far
Webster over 30?
Cordy 30ish?
Boyd mid 20’s?

JSOS late 20’s
Ryan late 20’s?
TDK mid 20’s
Aleer - early 20’s?

Jones probably gets delisted - 30ish?
Marshall maybe goes - 30ish?
Potentially Steele ? - 30ish?

Every chance we are younger next year.

Exactly. What is important is that the older blokes get money that needs to be used, and the younger blokes don’t cost first round draft picks, unless they are around 22 and a guarantee over what is expected to be a weak draft.

Ryan aside, who I hope won’t cost us too much in cap space for the three years, I think we have achieved the above if everybody comes in. But the details obviously remain to be seen.

 

[stavro#4]

JSOS as well though. It feels like we're zeroing in on markers with high athleticism (Aleer, Tauru), rather than playing tradition big defenders (Howard, Caminiti). You'd assume the game plan is to get a lot of intercepts and third man up spoils, rather than beating forwards one on one. So you'd think the line up would be:

Aleer Wilkie Tauru
Sinclair JSOS Clark/Hastie/Stocker/Someone

If nothing else, it will be a lot of fun watching Aleer and Tauru jumping everywhere and at every thing, and seeing Wilkie and JSOS using their smarts. We'll be hoping to score a lot from turn over you'd imagine

Yeah forgot about JSOS from the list

 

[sauce_head]

I sort of get the idea but its gonna naturally have a downside.

There is no way were playing a defensive 6 of JSOS, Aleer, Wilkie, Camma/Howard, Tauru and IMO Wilkie and Camma/Howard MUST play so were either moving (which creates a problem up forward) or dumping Tauru, Aleer or JSOS which then begs the question of why recruit them?

Were also not playing two first choice rucks, im still sure we trade Roma so i dont really care about this one.

We can play C-Mac, Flanders, Windy, Nas, Steele and Macrae. We probably cant play many more on top of that so Pou, Garcia, Boxshall, Wilson are all then playing twos when theyve been predominantly ones players. Competition, depth etc are all good but some of those guys will walk at seasons end. Again, this one doesnt bother me too much but its worth noting.

I still dont really see it with Ryan but Max King is gonna make far more difference than he will, plus the flow on of Max for Sharman and others cant be overstated but if Tauru goes forward then King, Ryan, Tauru, Sharman, Owens and Keeler (who i still think is prime for forward/2nd ruck) is too tall.

Its alot of change and alot of management. Were gonna shed some to do it and then it becomes a question of how much do we shed and does it simplyt move us sideways rather than forward.

Again, im not anti it, i like the agression and the direction but it has risks.

I think Ryan is a front and centre roving upgrade on Butler. Butler has gotten most of his recent goals by running forward of the ball from memory. I can’t recall him doing a lot on tight spaces at the foot of the taller forwards. I think Ryan is more dangerous in this situation (like Higgo) and much better overhead. So on that basis, I think it’s an upgrade.

People will probably tell me I am wrong and perhaps I am. I haven’t seen a lot of WCE This season, admittedly.

 

[RobbieMuir]

In 2000, we brought in 5 mature players between the ages of 24-25.

• Capuano (mid season delisting 3 years later)
• Lawrence (talented, body failed him and attitude was poor. Gone 3 years later)
• Callaghan ( Talented, injury prone. Gone 3 years later)

And then… Fraser Gehrig and Aaron Hamill


We got a superstar.
And a gun who became captain and a culture setter before injuries robbed him.

I’d say 3 seasons from the other 3 whilst the kids developed behind them is a good outcome aswell.

TDK, JSOS, Aleer, Ryan, Flander?, Cmac?

You get a superstar out of that or 2 high level players and the others hang around for 3-4 seasons.

It’s a win.

Howard Butler Hill Jones are all on the list 5 seasons later. Ryder was immense when fit and playing.

It was a win. What failed was Billings Coffield Clark Dunstan Paton Gresham Long Dmac etc just never came on.

Billings Gresham the big 2. Should have become A graders - is what ruined that build.

Also lost Roberton at his peak as an AA40 member.

Billings had all the tools to become a very good player, and whilst his 2017 and 2019 seasons were excellent, he never put multiple good seasons together (possibly due to constantly dealing with injuries and lacking that bit of mongrel).

He comes from an elite gene pool - his younger sister is the 2nd fastest Australian 800m runner of all time (and is still improving) - so Jack will always be remembered as one of those "if only" players.