List Mgmt. 2025 List Management Discussion - Part 3

[Hubnester]

2025 List Management Discussion - Part 3

Now that our season is over, and news is starting to break - it's time for a fresh thread.

This thread is to discuss all things list management - trades, draft, free agency, delistings and more.
As we are now officially in our off-season, we'll be wanting to keep this thread more strictly on-topic than the previous iterations.
Be respectful. You are allowed to disagree with someone - but play the ball, not the man. Repeat offenders will have their posting rights revoked.

Thanks to Lore once again for this incredibly useful spreadsheet.

2025 KEY DATES
Free Agency Period: Friday, October 3rd - Friday, October 10th
Trade Period: Monday, October 6th - Wednesday, October 15th
AFL Draft: Wednesday, November 19th - Thursday, November 20th

See Also:
2025 Year in Review Rumours & Confirmed Movements 2025 Draft Discussion
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[BrutThough]

A great player struggling on a half forward flank. 31 disposal average in 2024. 18 this year.

I like Flanders but thats a very liberal use of the word 'great' to describe him.

 

[akaifu]

All the more reason not to pay pick 7 or a future first.

Future 1st is what I'm hearing but still a lot to play out

 

[bird_man]

Feel like it’s worth pointing out.

Managing a back issue can mean a lot of things.

But a significant back issue wouldn’t have the guy running around for 79% TOG in a do or die final against your local rival.

I’d argue the actual quote in its entirety is Hardwick trying to protect player value, seeing as he doesn’t squash a trade.

However, Hardwick maintained the Sun was not gettable, adding he has been playing through a back injury all season.

"Great players do get interest, that's why they're great," Hardwick told reporters post-game.

"Sam's had a tough year. He was on fire at the start of the year. He's got a back that, if I'm being completely honest, he probably shouldn't have played half the games he played, but he's tough kid and I love him.

"As far as I'm concerned, Sam is one of our best players and I don't love trading our best players."

A great player struggling on a half forward flank. 31 disposal average in 2024. 18 this year.

He was drafted as a hybrid mid/forward so I think whether he has played mid or forward this year his form is a concern.

Whether it's completely down to back issues or just a step back in form, it's a bit of a worry and I'd be cautious about over paying for him on the back of one good year of footy.

 

[akaifu]

He was drafted as a hybrid mid/forward so I think whether he has played mid or forward this year his form is a concern.

Whether it's completely down to back issues or just a step back in form, it's a bit of a worry and I'd be cautious about over paying for him on the back of one good year of footy.

I think there is enough evidence of Flanders being a good midfielder to justify a future 1st (which is what I'm hearing we are interested in paying for him)

There is 0.0000001% chance pick 7 is involved in a straight swap for him imo

IF it was to be involved we'd trade it back first to, say, Carlton's TDK & JSOS compo picks and on trade the JSOS pick for Flanders. Especially since one of our favourite draft prospects Mitch Marsh looks like he could be available along with a few mids at the TDK compo pick

 

[bird_man]

I think there is enough evidence of Flanders being a good midfielder to justify a future 1st (which is what I'm hearing we are interested in paying for him)

There is 0.0000001% chance pick 7 is involved in a straight swap for him imo

IF it was to be involved we'd trade it back first to, say, Carlton's TDK & JSOS compo picks and on trade the JSOS pick for Flanders. Especially since one of our favourite draft prospects Mitch Marsh looks like he could be available along with a few mids at the TDK compo pick

There's a fair argument that a future first is probably worth more than pick 7 this year though.

 

[stfan]

But speed and athleticism will be important, especially if the new boundary rule kicks in. (see that?)

We already have speed and athleticism at quite a good level, and moreseo with TDK and Aleer joining. The Club has also focused on having good running capacity.

The main thing we lack now are more good users of the ball. We have three very good users in Sincs, Nas and Hall by foot and hand, but in particular in their decision making of where to place the ball.

Mind you Hall and Nas are both quick...and good users. They like Sins are all good users when in traffic and under pressure.

We have some ok users.

Hill is good, when not under pressure. Under pressure he is often awful.


Good users of the ball mean that you turn over the ball less. So the opposition get less chances to score. And better use that we gain more opportunities to score.

If we are chasing a mid...it needs to be someone who uses the ball very well. No ore Jones's.

 

[Mat Mann]

There's a fair argument that a future first is probably worth more than pick 7 this year though.

maybe the player quality is better next year, but Tassie will gut that draft. if we finish 8th our pick will likely be close to the 20's, if you include the academies etc..

 

[stavro#4]

I like Flanders but thats a very liberal use of the word 'great' to describe him.

Not sure if we are on the same page here. But I was using Hardwicks words. Not my own

He was drafted as a hybrid mid/forward so I think whether he has played mid or forward this year his form is a concern.

Whether it's completely down to back issues or just a step back in form, it's a bit of a worry and I'd be cautious about over paying for him on the back of one good year of footy.

His best footy was half back to midfield at AFL level.

 

[stfan]

I think there is enough evidence of Flanders being a good midfielder to justify a future 1st (which is what I'm hearing we are interested in paying for him)

There is 0.0000001% chance pick 7 is involved in a straight swap for him imo

IF it was to be involved we'd trade it back first to, say, Carlton's TDK & JSOS compo picks and on trade the JSOS pick for Flanders. Especially since one of our favourite draft prospects Mitch Marsh looks like he could be available along with a few mids at the TDK compo pick

I get that we may want Pick 7 for a kid this year.

But one could argue that Pick 7 this year is lower value than our F1 as:

• Next year's draft is meant to be stronger
• That if the F1 Round becomes an Academy/NGA/FS free zone in 2026 that picks will not be sliding as much.

SOS pick for Flanders would be a stretch as that may be end of Round 1, which would be what 30+ ?

 

[akaifu]

There's a fair argument that a future first is probably worth more than pick 7 this year though.

Maybe, but that's extremely subjective

2024 draft was seen as weak the year before. We all know how that turned out...

What you can say for sure:

• we have a top 10 pick this year. who knows about next year...could be pick 15 if things go to plan on field
• a pick this year gets an extra year of development compared to a pick next year
• we know precisely the quality of this year's pool. it only takes one player we really like for us to want to stay in this draft
• we have the opportunity to split our pick 7 for multiple first rounders. carlton probably won't take a future 1st for that deal
• a decision is yet to be made whether FS/academy is locked out next year, our pick could be in the 20s if it doesn't happen

SOS pick will be late twenties so yeah we'd probably have to add more to it but my point was pick 7 is way overs for Flanders

 

[Veer Right]

Would happily depart with a first rounder, this or next for Flanders.

Well above average ball user who will rack up getting the ball with an on ball or half back position.

FWIW, Flanders last night looked better then Miller and Anderson imo.

 

[Diehard Saint]

1) Walsh dodgy back, ewww. Flanders dodgy back, potential....

2) But really, we'd want to be pretty convinced its not an ongoing issue. You'd question why he played so much if he was too bad.

3) Hardwick says, I love him, I don't love trading our best players. If he wasn't GONE surely he'd say, our best players dont get traded.

Why would he mention his back at all?
Reduced his trade cost.

 

[Diehard Saint]

Future 1st is what I'm hearing but still a lot to play out

Honestly prefer that to this years first. Even if this one blows out a little.

 

[Sully111]

Future 1st is what I'm hearing but still a lot to play out

Where are you hearing that?

 

[Diehard Saint]

There's a fair argument that a future first is probably worth more than pick 7 this year though.

Why?
Hopefully we finish a lot higher and the draft will still be compromised by NGAs etc, won’t it.
Never mind Tassie.

 

[bird_man]

Maybe, but that's extremely subjective

2024 draft was seen as weak the year before. We all know how that turned out...

What you can say for sure:

• we have a top 10 pick this year. who knows about next year...could be pick 15 if things go to plan on field
• a pick this year gets an extra year of development compared to a pick next year
• we know precisely the quality of this year's pool. it only takes one player we really like for us to want to stay in this draft
• we have the opportunity to split our pick 7 for multiple first rounders. carlton probably won't take a future 1st for that deal
• a decision is yet to be made whether FS/academy is locked out next year, our pick could be in the 20s if it doesn't happen

SOS pick will be late twenties so yeah we'd probably have to add more to it but my point was pick 7 is way overs for Flanders

It won't be a top ten pick by the time our selection comes round

 

[luca77]

1) Walsh dodgy back, ewww. Flanders dodgy back, potential....

2) But really, we'd want to be pretty convinced its not an ongoing issue. You'd question why he played so much if he was too bad.

3) Hardwick says, I love him, I don't love trading our best players. If he wasn't GONE surely he'd say, our best players dont get traded.

If I were a small, pale bloke being asked to play in a pink jumper, I'd be pulling the sore back excuse to get out of playing too.

And eyeing off the best jumper in the league...

Looked OK on the built, tanned blokes though. Knobel and Flanders? Not flash.

 

[bird_man]

Why?
Hopefully we finish a lot higher and the draft will still be compromised by NGAs etc, won’t it.
Never mind Tassie.

Better quality reported and less compromised (it may even end up not compromised at all).

 

[Veer Right]

If I were a small, pale bloke being asked to play in a pink jumper, I'd be pulling the sore back excuse to get out of playing too.

And eyeing off the best jumper in the league...

Looked OK on the built, tanned blokes though. Knobel and Flanders? Not flash.

 

[Mangus]

Maybe, but that's extremely subjective

2024 draft was seen as weak the year before. We all know how that turned out...

What you can say for sure:

• we have a top 10 pick this year. who knows about next year...could be pick 15 if things go to plan on field
• a pick this year gets an extra year of development compared to a pick next year
• we know precisely the quality of this year's pool. it only takes one player we really like for us to want to stay in this draft
• we have the opportunity to split our pick 7 for multiple first rounders. carlton probably won't take a future 1st for that deal
• a decision is yet to be made whether FS/academy is locked out next year, our pick could be in the 20s if it doesn't happen

SOS pick will be late twenties so yeah we'd probably have to add more to it but my point was pick 7 is way overs for Flanders

Pick 7 will move out to pick 11-12 this year in a draft that is very poor - So poor in fact SA won the Champs in a canter those VIC teams were so ordinary and bland and normally that is where over 50% of the draftees come from.

If we are dropping out of the first round in any draft this is the draft to do it, any other draft and I would agree pick 7 is too much for CMac or Flanders, this draft they would be a steal.

If they lock out bids on the top 10 or first round from next year the value of future firsts goes through the roof compared to this year. Pick 15 next year is likely to be at least equal or maybe better to this years Pick 7 (11-12)

Essendon have the chance to end up with 5 or 6 first round draft picks this year but if they do I will bet they will be doing everything they can to move as many of those as they can to next year or even 2027. This is not the draft to invest in just like 2020 wasn’t.

 

[beside the seaside]

Future 1st is what I'm hearing but still a lot to play out

Future 1st for Flanders? Why the heck would we do that? The Suns are about to get three more top ten picks or something, they don't need our charity. We're basically taking a salary dump for them. Future 2nd should do it.

 

[akaifu]

It won't be a top ten pick by the time our selection comes round

Pick 11

 

[Coconut_twirl]

we're going to cop payback with an early bid on Fincher I'm guessing... boo hoo - where are we going to possibly find 3 third round picks from

If the price is too high then the club that bids on him can keep him.

 

[akaifu]

Pick 7 will move out to pick 11-12 this year in a draft that is very poor - So poor in fact SA won the Champs in a canter those VIC teams were so ordinary and bland and normally that is where over 50% of the draftees come from.

If we are dropping out of the first round in any draft this is the draft to do it, any other draft and I would agree pick 7 is too much for CMac or Flanders, this draft they would be a steal.

If they lock out bids on the top 10 or first round from next year the value of future firsts goes through the roof compared to this year. Pick 15 next year is likely to be at least equal or maybe better to this years Pick 7 (11-12)

Essendon have the chance to end up with 5 or 6 first round draft picks this year but if they do I will bet they will be doing everything they can to move as many of those as they can to next year or even 2027. This is not the draft to invest in just like 2020 wasn’t.

I am aware of how poor the draft is, but it's not as bad as people are making it out to be

The top 5 (open pool) is pretty shocking, yes. That's where this draft has earned the 'poor' title. But 8-18? It's not that much worse than previous years imo. Compared to last year - yes. Pretty bad. But last year was a super draft and 2026 is no guarantee to be that

Don't get me wrong, I really want us to keep next year's pick. I'd rather split this year's pick then trade it out. But there is still merit to trading the 2026 pick given our circumstances

2020 was a COVID year, you can't compare now to a year where prospects didn't play any footy

An article was released today about it:

"The year was marred by the COVID pandemic, which prevented most underage footy taking place, with recruiters not getting an ideal look at prospects."

The curious case of the 2020 AFL Draft

The 2020 AFL Draft won't be looked back on as fondly as some others.

www.sen.com.au

 

[Speck]

If the price is too high then the club that bids on him can keep him.

The sooner we get to a position where clubs legitimately don't match bids the better! That's how you know its fair price.