List Mgmt. 2025 List Management Discussion - Part 3

[Hubnester]

2025 List Management Discussion - Part 3

Now that our season is over, and news is starting to break - it's time for a fresh thread.

This thread is to discuss all things list management - trades, draft, free agency, delistings and more.
As we are now officially in our off-season, we'll be wanting to keep this thread more strictly on-topic than the previous iterations.
Be respectful. You are allowed to disagree with someone - but play the ball, not the man. Repeat offenders will have their posting rights revoked.

Thanks to Lore once again for this incredibly useful spreadsheet.

2025 KEY DATES
Free Agency Period: Friday, October 3rd - Friday, October 10th
Trade Period: Monday, October 6th - Wednesday, October 15th
AFL Draft: Wednesday, November 19th - Thursday, November 20th

See Also:
2025 Year in Review Rumours & Confirmed Movements 2025 Draft Discussion
​

 

[TheJackal]

Something to consider as well is that the changes to the points value index have made it much more difficult to match the earliest of bids. Suns have 2 players who should absolutely be top 5 picks so they are going to need a lot of points to match those 2.

 

[akaifu]

Something to consider as well is that the changes to the points value index have made it much more difficult to match the earliest of bids. Suns have 2 players who should absolutely be top 5 picks so they are going to need a lot of points to match those 2.

They already have PA 1st, GC 1st, COLL 1st

If they're smart with those picks, they can easily get enough points through second and third round trades even if Uwland & Patterson go 2 & 3

Then they also need to match bids for Coulsen, Addinsall, Murray, and White which is also doable if they go in their expected range

 

[Joffaboy]

maybe the player quality is better next year, but Tassie will gut that draft. if we finish 8th our pick will likely be close to the 20's, if you include the academies etc..

Tassie is 2027 at the earliest

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

Maybe, but that's extremely subjective

2024 draft was seen as weak the year before. We all know how that turned out...

What you can say for sure:

• we have a top 10 pick this year. who knows about next year...could be pick 15 if things go to plan on field
• a pick this year gets an extra year of development compared to a pick next year
• we know precisely the quality of this year's pool. it only takes one player we really like for us to want to stay in this draft
• we have the opportunity to split our pick 7 for multiple first rounders. carlton probably won't take a future 1st for that deal
• a decision is yet to be made whether FS/academy is locked out next year, our pick could be in the 20s if it doesn't happen

SOS pick will be late twenties so yeah we'd probably have to add more to it but my point was pick 7 is way overs for Flanders

There were people on here bagging last year’s draft just prior to the National Champs.

A few weeks later it was shaping up as a super draft.

If what you suggests is accurate & we really like Marsh or someone of that ilk, then moving next year’s 1st is a reasonable strategy.

Of course we may have another 1st and/2nd to play with this year too.

 

[stavro#4]

I am aware of how poor the draft is, but it's not as bad as people are making it out to be

The top 5 (open pool) is pretty shocking, yes. That's where this draft has earned the 'poor' title. But 8-18? It's not that much worse than previous years imo. Compared to last year - yes. Pretty bad. But last year was a super draft and 2026 is no guarantee to be that

Quality between picks 8-18 in recent years.

2024: Tauru Lindsay Hotton Reid
2023: Curtin O’Sullivan Caddy Croft Wilson
2022: Ginbey Phillipou Hewett Weddle
2021: Amiss Nas Aleer Wilmot
2020: Perkins Reid Powell Henry
2019: Serong Henry Green Flanders Pickett Day Bergman Weightman Georgiadies
2018: Caldwell Butters Clark Duursma
2017: Naughton Fogarty Bailey Richards Higgins Starcevich
2016: Florent Simpkin Perryman Marshall Berry SPP
2015: McKay Milera Curnow Rioli Doedee Gresham

Bold are the players playing for us next year. But there have been very good to excellent players every year bar the COVID draft. I’ve also tried to avoid Father son/academies etc. (might have even included some by mistake.)

Point is, if the draft is as good as you are saying. Then you are giving up a chance of some very good footballers based on historical evidence.

Next years pick has every chance of being pick 11(if we finish 8th) in a protected first round if the rules change aswell.

If Flanders isn’t worth pick 7 straight up. Cmac is definitely not based on current evidence and your opinion that the draft “is not that much worse” than 2024s mid first round crop.

However the narrative is that draft doesn’t have the top end talent nor does it have the depth. Which would make more sense with clubs happy to trade out of the first round and it does make sense that we would then be considering Campigli and Voss to round out our list.

 

[akaifu]

Quality between picks 8-18 in recent years.

2024: Tauru Lindsay Hotton Reid
2023: Curtin O’Sullivan Caddy Croft Wilson
2022: Ginbey Phillipou Hewett Weddle
2021: Amiss Nas Aleer Wilmot
2020: Perkins Reid Powell Henry
2019: Serong Henry Green Flanders Pickett Day Bergman Weightman Georgiadies
2018: Caldwell Butters Clark Duursma
2017: Naughton Fogarty Bailey Richards Higgins Starcevich
2016: Florent Simpkin Perryman Marshall Berry SPP
2015: McKay Milera Curnow Rioli Doedee Gresham

Bold are the players playing for us next year. But there have been very good to excellent players every year bar the COVID draft. I’ve also tried to avoid Father son/academies etc. (might have even included some by mistake.)

Point is, if the draft is as good as you are saying. Then you are giving up a chance of some very good footballers based on historical evidence.

Next years pick has every chance of being pick 11(if we finish 8th) in a protected first round if the rules change aswell.

If Flanders isn’t worth pick 7 straight up. Cmac is definitely not based on current evidence and your opinion that the draft “is not that much worse” than 2024s mid first round crop.

However the narrative is that draft doesn’t have the top end talent nor does it have the depth. Which would make more sense with clubs happy to trade out of the first round and it does make sense that we would then be considering Campigli and Voss to round out our list.

I agree with your general point - I still prefer to trade out this year's first than next year's but there's definitely a more efficient way of doing things than just doing pick 7 for Flanders straight up

And I don't think I said the bolded quote, in fact I'm pretty sure I said the opposite: "Compared to last year - yes. Pretty bad."

 

[stavro#4]

They already have PA 1st, GC 1st, COLL 1st

If they're smart with those picks, they can easily get enough points through second and third round trades even if Uwland & Patterson go 2 & 3

Then they also need to match bids for Coulsen, Addinsall, Murray, and White which is also doable if they go in their expected range

I take it you’re not across the DVI for this year if you think a club can “easily get enough points via second and third rounders”

Pick 18 is the equivalent of: picks 31+32 in the second round

Or

Picks 37,38,38 in the third round.

And for a club like Gold Coast those picks will push out and then come in for clubs not needing to match picks in the first round.

As it stands clubs with multiple seconds: North Essendon GWS WCE and this would only be a marginal gain in points.

Third round: Brisbane & Adelaide.

The draft change adding another element to upcoming trade frenzy

Cal Twomey takes a look at how changes to the points model could impact this year's Trade Period

www.afl.com.au

The likely answer is that Gold Coast will need to gain picks via shedding some players.

 

[stavro#4]

I agree with your general point - I still prefer to trade out this year's first than next year's but there's definitely a more efficient way of doing things than just doing pick 7 for Flanders straight up

And I don't think I said the bolded quote, in fact I'm pretty sure I said the opposite: "Compared to last year - yes. Pretty bad."

I gave you 10 years of picks in those ranges. Which points to quality in that area.

 

[akaifu]

I take it you’re not across the DVI for this year if you think a club can “easily get enough points via second and third rounders”

Pick 18 is the equivalent of: picks 31+32 in the second round

Or

Picks 37,38,38 in the third round.

And for a club like Gold Coast those picks will push out and then come in for clubs not needing to match picks in the first round.

As it stands clubs with multiple seconds: North Essendon GWS WCE and this would only be a marginal gain in points.

Third round: Brisbane & Adelaide.

The draft change adding another element to upcoming trade frenzy

Cal Twomey takes a look at how changes to the points model could impact this year's Trade Period

www.afl.com.au

The likely answer is that Gold Coast will need to gain picks via shedding some players.

I wouldn't be claiming stuff like that if I didn't bother studying the new rules or didn't already draw up a scenario that supports the claim

 

[akaifu]

I gave you 10 years of picks in those ranges. Which points to quality in that area.

Yes, and I think there will be quality there still this year

But not to the extent of 2024 as it was a super draft

Just my opinion though. If you disagree, then that's fine

 

[Anythings_sipposible]

Absolutely hilarious that Essendon had a bunch of picks in the COVID draft, and are looking to get a bunch of picks in this shitty draft as well. They AFL may not have made the pay the price for the doping scandal, but the universe is

 

[Sainter62]

maybe the player quality is better next year, but Tassie will gut that draft. if we finish 8th our pick will likely be close to the 20's, if you include the academies etc..

Tassie not until 2027

 

[akaifu]

Tassie not until 2027

Tassie players can nominate for Tassie in 2026 and play for their VFL team in 2027 before the club come into the comp for 2028 & beyond

Charlie Bovill is a top name for next year who might do it. About 3-4 others who look solid might also be in the conversation

There will be an impact but it looks like being quite insignificant

 

[TheJackal]

They already have PA 1st, GC 1st, COLL 1st

If they're smart with those picks, they can easily get enough points through second and third round trades even if Uwland & Patterson go 2 & 3

Then they also need to match bids for Coulsen, Addinsall, Murray, and White which is also doable if they go in their expected range

Pick 2 is worth 2481, pick 3 is worth 2178. With the 10% discount thats 4193 points.

Ports pick 6 will be pick 7 with Allan and possibly (unlikely) 8 with Draper, so I'll say pick 7 - 1543 points.

By the time the Suns pick 13 comes around it will be worth at least pick 15 with Allan/TDK and maybe Draper compo. Factoring in bids, its at least pick 19 maybe more, but I'll be ultra conservative and say pick 19 - 796 points.

Then Collingwoods pick is anywhere from 15-18, which will be at least pick 17 after FA compo - possibly 20. That pushes out to potentially around 25 after bids on players - I'll go 23 being conservative - 653 points.

For clarity, they also have pick 31, I'll suggest 35 at least based on FA, bids but also picks used up picks for points - 338 points.

So, and I think I'm being realistic and probably conservative, their current points value is 3330, but could very easily end up under 3000 if we see some (hopefully) early bids.

Our pick 7 becomes pick 13 with a bid for Dean = 1080.

Give or take, they are our pick short for those first 2 and thats not factoring in any other their other academy players.

 

[Mat Mann]

Tassie not until 2027

I'm a year early, awesome

thanks

 

[akaifu]

Pick 2 is worth 2481, pick 3 is worth 2178. With the 10% discount thats 4193 points.

Ports pick 6 will be pick 7 with Allan and possibly (unlikely) 8 with Draper, so I'll say pick 7 - 1543 points.

By the time the Suns pick 13 comes around it will be worth at least pick 15 with Allan/TDK and maybe Draper compo. Factoring in bids, its at least pick 19 maybe more, but I'll be ultra conservative and say pick 19 - 796 points.

Then Collingwoods pick is anywhere from 15-18, which will be at least pick 17 after FA compo - possibly 20. That pushes out to potentially around 25 after bids on players - I'll go 23 being conservative - 653 points.

For clarity, they also have pick 31, I'll suggest 35 at least based on FA, bids but also picks used up picks for points - 338 points.

So, and I think I'm being realistic and probably conservative, their current points value is 3330, but could very easily end up under 3000 if we see some (hopefully) early bids.

Our pick 7 becomes pick 13 with a bid for Dean = 1080.

Give or take, they are our pick short for those first 2 and thats not factoring in any other their other academy players.

Yep, which is why they will absolutely end up trading those picks for more points

There will be clubs wanting to climb the order - eg. hypothetically Norf might package up 20 & 21 (757 + 721 before bids) to get to pick 13 (1080 before bids). That's already +398 DVI (before bids). Then they can continue splitting those picks

Hence why I said "if they're smart with those picks"

And all this assuming Uwland + Patterson go 2 & 3, which I feel is unlikely going off recent history with the slides of Lombard, Rogers, Kako etc.

Furthermore, they will get later picks for Flanders (even if the F1 is the core of the deal), Malcolm Rosas, and maybe Fiorini if he chooses to leave as an UFA amongst other potential departures given the incoming influx of players

 

[TheJackal]

Yep, which is why they will absolutely end up trading those picks for more points

There will be clubs wanting to climb the order - eg. hypothetically Norf might package up 20 & 21 (757 + 721 before bids) to get to pick 13 (1080 before bids). That's already +398 DVI (before bids). Then they can continue splitting those picks

Hence why I said "if they're smart with those picks"

And all this assuming Uwland + Patterson go 2 & 3, which I feel is unlikely going off recent history with the slides of Read, Rogers, Kako etc.

Furthermore, they will get later picks for Flanders (even if the F1 is the core of the deal), Malcolm Rosas, and maybe Fiorini if he chooses to leave as an UFA amongst other potential departures given the incoming influx of players

Here's hoping bids for guys like Carmichael, King, Sweid, Addinsall etc can absolutely wreak havoc amongst the first round then.

 

[TheJackal]

Yep, which is why they will absolutely end up trading those picks for more points

There will be clubs wanting to climb the order - eg. hypothetically Norf might package up 20 & 21 (757 + 721 before bids) to get to pick 13 (1080 before bids). That's already +398 DVI (before bids). Then they can continue splitting those picks

Hence why I said "if they're smart with those picks"

And all this assuming Uwland + Patterson go 2 & 3, which I feel is unlikely going off recent history with the slides of Lombard, Rogers, Kako etc.

Furthermore, they will get later picks for Flanders (even if the F1 is the core of the deal), Malcolm Rosas, and maybe Fiorini if he chooses to leave as an UFA amongst other potential departures given the incoming influx of players

Pick 13 turns into pick 20 with a bid for King (757 points). So 20 & 21 actually end up around 30, 31 with JSOS, Starcevich etc. So looking at 883 points.

These figures are rough as, and it all depends on too many hypothetical factors such as bids, compo picks and when the points are used etc, but I think the point stands that these picks aren't worth nearly as much on paper as it seems and it will be much harder than it used to be to match.

 

[SG34]

We already have speed and athleticism at quite a good level, and moreseo with TDK and Aleer joining. The Club has also focused on having good running capacity.

The main thing we lack now are more good users of the ball. We have three very good users in Sincs, Nas and Hall by foot and hand, but in particular in their decision making of where to place the ball.

Mind you Hall and Nas are both quick...and good users. They like Sins are all good users when in traffic and under pressure.

We have some ok users.

Hill is good, when not under pressure. Under pressure he is often awful.


Good users of the ball mean that you turn over the ball less. So the opposition get less chances to score. And better use that we gain more opportunities to score.

If we are chasing a mid...it needs to be someone who uses the ball very well. No ore Jones's.

Hill is no worse under pressure and he makes some superb kicks into forward 50 under the gun. I don’t know about Hall but that’s good news if he is good.

We need skill. However, look at Hawthorn. Not elite skills.

 

[bergholt]

Especially since one of our favourite draft prospects Mitch Marsh looks like he could be available

Surely Mitch Marsh will end up with back issues too

 

[SainterinSydney]

Breaking News! Bigfooty campaigner assails Mitch Marsh before draft combine

 

[Sully111]

Where are you hearing that?

crickets

I'm guessing it's the kgb who have a missile pointed at your house in case you say yo sully I heard it from the kgb

 

[Saintos The ITK]

Anyone else celebrating contributing to brisbanes romance? I’m ecstatic can’t stop partying.

 

[KingJim]

Is there current list of newly aquired players, recently re-signed players, hopeful prospects etc for St Kilda?

 

[stfan]

Hill is no worse under pressure

Well I will respectively disgaree.

and he makes some superb kicks into forward 50 under the gun. I don’t know about Hall but that’s good news if he is good.

We need skill. However, look at Hawthorn. Not elite skills.

Hall. How could you not know how effective he was late in the year? He just uses the ball so very well, and the chains he is end often score goals. He has great vision and decision making.


IMO he Nas and Sincs are easily our three best users of the ball. They get the ball to team mates in good positions....and not just to teamayes anywhere.

In that period he was rated within the top 7 players in the AFL.


In that last quarter against the Dees, which many credit to be due to Nas, Hall was the main reason we won. Nas was brilliant, but Hall had a brilliant quarter.


As for the Hawks, how many poor kicks do they have? On the whole their playing group use the ball well.