List Mgmt. 2025 List Management Discussion - Part IV

[Hubnester]

2025 List Management Discussion - Part 4

Now that our season is over, and news is starting to break - it's time for a fresh thread.

This thread is to discuss all things list management - trades, draft, free agency, delistings and more.
As we are now officially in our off-season, we'll be wanting to keep this thread more strictly on-topic than the previous iterations.
Be respectful. You are allowed to disagree with someone - but play the ball, not the man. Repeat offenders will have their posting rights revoked.

Thanks to Lore once again for this incredibly useful spreadsheet.

2025 KEY DATES
Free Agency Period: Friday, October 3rd - Friday, October 10th
Trade Period: Monday, October 6th - Wednesday, October 15th
AFL Draft: Wednesday, November 19th - Thursday, November 20th

See Also:
2025 Year in Review Rumours & Confirmed Movements 2025 Draft Discussion
​

 

[From 45]

What kind of incentives would have doubled his salary? Winning a BnF?

Was that another speculative nonsense from a journo?

 

[saintmike65]

I said this the other day. But everyone seemed to think otherwise.

The likelihood is that SOS has a history of asking agents to work with us to get the desired outcome and this one probably turned around and said no. So we walked away.

If Colin Young was Leek's manager it would've been a smooth transaction

 

[_Maximus_12]

No, that doesn’t explain the agent blowing up with a statement a few hours after straight to Tom Morris.

It doesn’t explain us walking away.

Deals fall apart all the time.

The sticking point was the second rounder. It was seemingly a non negotiable.

At this point I’m guessing we asked to walk Aleer through the PSD. (SOS did so with Martin when at Carlton) the agent probably loyal to the giants told us otherwise and to pay what they wanted and we walked.

Difference between a good agent and the chasing pack.

 

[Mav3rick]

He’s a completely different prospect with Max and even Ryan in the team. Nightmare match up physically

King, Owens, Sharman, Higgins, Ryan, Hall, Marsall/TDK, Phillipou, Wilson, Henry, Collard, Butler, Keeler... the talent of this forward line now is so far above anything we've seen for a while, probably even 2009-10. All guys I could see having 20-30+ goal seasons if they play enough. Almost feel for the selection panel.

 

[NAS THE GOAT]

Salary Cap Estimate

I've estimated the Saints’ salary cap position, based on based on reported contract values and AFL cap accounting assumptions.
It looks very healthy heading into 2026 and primed for a 2026 Free Agent.

2025: AFL salary cap was $17.78m. St Kilda reportedly spent only 83% (~$14.76m).

2025: Unused cap space carried forward – around $3.9m likely front-loaded into existing 2025 contracts.

2026: AFL salary cap $18.29m.

2026: Estimated raw player spend (based on reported contracts and estimates) – $19.64m.

2026: Adjusted cap spend (after front-loading using 2025 savings) – $15.73m, or 85.9% of the cap.

2026: Remaining capacity to front-load – approximately $1.65m in existing 2026 contracts.

2027 salary cap $18.44m.

2027: Estimated spend $17.99m – around 97.6% of the cap, a strong and sustainable position.

Summary:
This is a conservative estimate as it assumes our salary spend is $19.64M on average in both 2026 and 2027, but it suggests St Kilda are about $2.5–3 million under the 2026 AFL cap after front-loading adjustments. The club has strong flexibility, with the ability to spend 105% in both 2027 and 2028 and the ability to front-load further without breaching cap limits.

Further allowance for salary increases for up and coming players salary appears to be allowed for given some senior player contracts tapering off and retirements are likely.

It appears to be very well-managed, and will allow St Kilda to be competitive in free agency in 2026.

Go Saints.

Excellent summary and very handy explanation for those who don’t fully understand it

 

[_Maximus_12]

Any suggestion of Owens playing twos is laughable. I can’t wait to see the havoc he causes when he’s not getting one of the oppositions best defenders each week.
He will be an absolute handful.

 

[Captain Paddy]

He’s a completely different prospect with Max and even Ryan in the team. Nightmare match up physically

Most likely going to be too quick and nimble for a key back, but will be way too big and strong for most small to medium defenders

 

[SainterinSydney]

Any suggestion of Owens playing twos is laughable. I can’t wait to see the havoc he causes when he’s not getting one of the oppositions best defenders each week.
He will be an absolute handful.

This. Hence why not having Max in the team was a massive loss to us structurally. Being able to play King and Caminiti/TDK/Marshall will mean Sharman and Owens are getting the 3rd and 4th best defenders, not the 1st and 2nd.

 

[saintmike65]

He was pretty good forward in his first season. Structure wise we seemed to use him as a big pack crasher with Cordy very deep. If King stays very deep that big spiller role is still important. Just as a pure spiller to stop the opposition interceptors picking us off and feed the smalls.

I have doubts Marshall and king would work together up forward...would not be unhappy seeing the Viking forward, he'd give us more defensive presence as well as aerial presence

 

[SG34]

So far, the trade period has been beyond spectacular. I wonder if the Aleer thing will cost us some momentum? I’m expecting a quiet week.

 

[SainterinSydney]

Does anyone have the inside word on what our plans are with the Viking in 2026?

 

[goodie23]

No, that doesn’t explain the agent blowing up with a statement a few hours after straight to Tom Morris.

It doesn’t explain us walking away.

Deals fall apart all the time.

The sticking point was the second rounder. It was seemingly a non negotiable.

At this point I’m guessing we asked to walk Aleer through the PSD. (SOS did so with Martin when at Carlton) the agent probably loyal to the giants told us otherwise and to pay what they wanted and we walked.

Or the manager is a rank amateur, which the quality of his statement does suggest. He read/heard Purple's coverage, panicked, (over)reacted. It's also a questionable coincidence that of his three clients, the two who were seeking trades (Derkson & Aleer) have had clubs turn off them.

 

[Captain Paddy]

This. Hence why not having Max in the team was a massive loss to us structurally. Being able to play King and Caminiti/TDK/Marshall will mean Sharman and Owens are getting the 3rd and 4th best defenders, not the 1st and 2nd.

100% Owens has basically played as the pseudo key forward for most of his time because King has been in and out.

Owens hitting up onto the wings and then running back in is going to cause headaches for oppo coaches

 

[stavro#4]

Or the manager is a rank amateur, which the quality of his statement does suggest. He read/heard Purple's coverage, panicked, (over)reacted. It's also a questionable coincidence that of his three clients, the two who were seeking trades (Derkson & Aleer) have had clubs turn off them.

No doubt he is an amateur.

But it’s been reported we spoke with him and not Aleer. The rationale for that can only be we asked the agent to work with us for a deal to be done.

Aleer has no part to play in this process of trade period.

 

[BrutThough]

I'd be interested to know if it was GWS or Leek's manager who leaked that we pulled out to the press.

 

[Captain Paddy]

Or the manager is a rank amateur, which the quality of his statement does suggest. He read/heard Purple's coverage, panicked, (over)reacted. It's also a questionable coincidence that of his three clients, the two who were seeking trades (Derkson & Aleer) have had clubs turn off them.

Pickers was adamant that the manager that released the statement wasn't actually the manager looking after Aleer or the negotiations.

They had someone on as an interview later in the day and he asked them and they confirmed that the guy that made the statement wasn't actually Aleers manager/the one in the conversation with St.Kilda

 

[stavro#4]

I'd be interested to know if it was GWS or Leek's manager who leaked that we pulled out to the press.

Agent. Same person telling Twomey a late pick or a PSD option the last few weeks.

In all the club interviews this week they have all insinuated they don’t want to tell Twomey much

 

[goodie23]

I'd be interested to know if it was GWS or Leek's manager who leaked that we pulled out to the press.

Would make more sense if it was GWS to advertise Leek's availability and damage control their end.

 

[Remboy]

Salary Cap Estimate

I've estimated the Saints’ salary cap position, based on based on reported contract values and AFL cap accounting assumptions.
It looks very healthy heading into 2026 and primed for a 2026 Free Agent.

2025: AFL salary cap was $17.78m. St Kilda reportedly spent only 83% (~$14.76m).

2025: Unused cap space carried forward – around $3.9m likely front-loaded into existing 2025 contracts.

2026: AFL salary cap $18.29m.

2026: Estimated raw player spend (based on reported contracts and estimates) – $19.64m.

2026: Adjusted cap spend (after front-loading using 2025 savings) – $15.73m, or 85.9% of the cap.

2026: Remaining capacity to front-load – approximately $1.65m in existing 2026 contracts.

2027 salary cap $18.44m.

2027: Estimated spend $17.99m – around 97.6% of the cap, a strong and sustainable position.

Summary:
This is a conservative estimate as it assumes our salary spend is $19.64M on average in both 2026 and 2027, but it suggests St Kilda are about $2.5–3 million under the 2026 AFL cap after front-loading adjustments. The club has strong flexibility, with the ability to spend 105% in both 2027 and 2028 and the ability to front-load further without breaching cap limits.

Further allowance for salary increases for up and coming players salary appears to be allowed for given some senior player contracts tapering off and retirements are likely.

It appears to be very well-managed, and will allow St Kilda to be competitive in free agency in 2026.

Go Saints.

I did some sums based on what's been reported in the media and according to my numbers we're paying about $35 mill next year.

 

[LeonardHayes87]

Interesting, but not enough to read into yet IMO.

I hope that rumour about Wilson isn’t true.

He spent longer in the VFL than he first expected which led to some disappointment however finished the season back in the team and back in form . Nothing to be concerned about.

 

[jimmytigs]

Owens getting squeezed out is a wild call.

Top 10 in the B&F despite missing some games with injury

Won the team trademark award

Has a ridiculous win/loss percentage for one on ones.

Would be one of the first picked I reckon

salivating at the prospect of owens/wilkie spending lots of time 3rd and some time on the 4th defender/forward

 

[Train12]

Any suggestion of Owens playing twos is laughable. I can’t wait to see the havoc he causes when he’s not getting one of the oppositions best defenders each week.
He will be an absolute handful.

This!! He was 21 years old playing on seasoned full backs this year and holding his own.

 

[saintmike65]

I thought Fincher played pretty well in the VFL game i watched and he is not even in any of Twomeys top 30 from the 3 monthly draft ratings he has done

Jonte Ralphsmith has Kye at 30...expecting a bid early second round

 

[BigMonty]

About Alir.
GWS have not played him much over his career so far, so they don't see him as the future. Made it known that he is available. Saints wine and dine as is their right. Saints offer an acceptable contract to Alir. Which seems to be agreed by player and Saints.
Now back to GWS we offer them a trade scenario that they do not regard as fair value this is from the club that is not paying him much, but get astounded at the lack of value being offered for a player they themselves do not value.
Where is the media scruitiny on GWS and their role in this sad affair.

They do not rate him but then get outraged when we do not offer what they think he is worth....thats called a marketplace.

Seriously a f3 and a pick swap is maybe unders but not by much.

Same as Geelong saying Marshall an established star top 8 ruckman in the AFL is worth our FRDP which we think is unders, we want their FFRDP, and a pick swap against a bit player with potential in Alir for F3rdp.

Seems that the media is one eyed to the bleeting of two nice clubs against the evil empire that is StKilda.

FxxK them and look at the putrid Curnow deal which is in effect 3 x early 2rdps.

Go Saints

PS Didn't really want Alir anyway

 

[phantom13]

Would be amazing if we get 24 games from King as the true FF and Camma as the true FB.

Sharman, Owens and Keeler/Roma/whoever as 2/3/4 and then higgo

Wilkie/JSOS/Tauru whoever

Looks unreal