2026 Trade / FA Thread

[Linda Lovelace]

No to Armartey from me - flaky, unreliable, and downhill skier.

When everyone on Bay 13 was picking the Leon Davis medal for that Sydney-Brisbane grand final, he was one of the pre-game favourites. He ultimately came 3rd I think.

The reasoning myself and others who voted for other players used was that he was too obviously going to be sh*t, so it wasn't funny when he was.

And while I know that is a joke award from internet trolls, the fact is that if neutral game watchers are that sure a player is going to be trash in a big game that it isn't even notable when it happens, that's a pretty good sign he is not the type of player we need.

 

[sr36]

The problem with trades everyone has this myopic view that who you are trading in will be just as good if not better as they were at their old club. Yet so many big name recruits never reached the same heights at a second club. Then there is a perceived devaluation in the draft pick due to the risk it carries of the player being a bust.

That second part isn’t helped by our performance in the national draft. Outside of father sons and academy players have been horrible over the last decade.

The pros aren't making those assumptions with either players or picks. It's a combination of maths and informed opinion (hunches).

The value of draft picks would be pretty easy to evaluate. It's the probability of getting a player with that pick based on historical data - adjusted for how highly rated the upcoming draft is.

And if you sell pick 36, you fill the list spot it would address later in the draft - so it's value is less than it's likelihood of getting a player. It's value is the difference between the probability 36 and 56 (or whatever pick you'll use instead) getting a player. And it's a surprisingly small probability between picks outside the top dozen.

When you trade in a player, the probability of success is usually a fair bit higher, but it has to be as you benefit from your successes for less years

 

[Seedsfan]

The pros aren't making those assumptions with either players or picks. It's a combination of maths and informed opinion (hunches).

The value of draft picks would be pretty easy to evaluate. It's the probability of getting a player with that pick based on historical data - adjusted for how highly rated the upcoming draft is.

And if you sell pick 36, you fill the list spot it would address later in the draft - so it's value is less than it's likelihood of getting a player. It's value is the difference between the probability 36 and 56 (or whatever pick you'll use instead) getting a player. And it's a surprisingly small probability between picks outside the top dozen.

When you trade in a player, the probability of success is usually a fair bit higher, but it has to be as you benefit from your successes for less years

Their opinion is an assumption in itself. There is no actual way of calculating future output and you can see the club has felt the pressure of failing year on year at the draft

 

[Ugene41]

Totally agree, but it didn’t make sense trading him in at his highest value either.

2025 first round, Noble, Richards and pick 39 for Dan and pick 58 is not looking great now.

Thats a bargain. 2025 first round ended up being a pick close to 30 in a weak draft. Basically 2 second rounders and a fringe player or two for a 2 x AA quality HB. Way cheaper than the trades for Schultz, Shai Bolton, Liam Baker, Daniel Rioli etc who are all lesser players.

 

[jjsmitty8]

Ngl, seeing the likes of Caddy, Morris, Shanahan, Trembath all look so promising as young key forwards makes me jealous.

 

[gouki88]

Ngl, seeing the likes of Caddy, Morris, Shanahan, Trembath all look so promising as young key forwards makes me jealous.

Trembath looks unreal. Great aerially, athletic as anything, kicks goals and can ruck too. Get him Leppa

 

[kalex6251]

this club needs to learn the ruthless art of how and when to trade assets to capitalise on their worth ...... it also needs to ignore outside noise driven in part by emotional fanbois upset at losing a favourite player (which in fairness it probably does but you do sometimes wonder)

long term i suspect we will regret not accepting trade offers for elliot and cameron

 

[sr36]

Their opinion is an assumption in itself. There is no actual way of calculating future output and you can see the club has felt the pressure of failing year on year at the draft

No there's no way of calculating it, but the past is a pretty good predictor.

It's pretty clear that someone who has been twice AA is much much more likely to play good footy than a pick in the teens, so he's worth much more than a pick in the teens - depending on age, injury history and recency of excellence.

They're crunching the numbers more - it's why trade prices are going up. For years trade has given you much more likelihood of acquiring good footy than taking your picks to the draft. It'll get to balance in terms of what the data says and then it'll be about timing, with some teams preferencing immediacy for a flag tilt or to phase out senior players and others rebuilding and willing to wait for the picks to develop.

 

[WanderingDude]

In the current player market place you have to pay overs. It is the nature of players expectations, competition between clubs and available funds to clubs. I think Shultz, Perryman and Houston were good selections given the list, players available and salary resources at the time. I did not expect Shultz and Houston to need adjustment periods.

 

[stormskye]

this club needs to learn the ruthless art of how and when to trade assets to capitalise on their worth ...... it also needs to ignore outside noise driven in part by emotional fanbois upset at losing a favourite player (which in fairness it probably does but you do sometimes wonder)

long term i suspect we will regret not accepting trade offers for elliot and cameron

Trade offers for free agent Elliot?…

 

[Robroy22]

Trade offers for free agent Elliot?…

Think he means Brisbane 2-3-4 years ago

 

[footballsack35]

How much would Jed Walter cost us as a RFA?

 

[sr36]

How much would Jed Walter cost us as a RFA?

In about 5 years when he qualifies for FA and has become good enough to earn a high enough salary to be an RFA - GC will match and we'll trade pick16 and a future first for him.

 

[Bramax]

In about 5 years when he qualifies for FA and has become good enough to earn a high enough salary to be an RFA - GC will match and we'll trade pick16 and a future first for him.

What if he asked for a trade this season? Just curious on your thoughts.

 

[manicpie]

How much would Jed Walter cost us as a RFA?

GC will probably lose king this year so they will want to keep him

 

[sr36]

What if he asked for a trade this season? Just curious on your thoughts.

No idea. 3rd year and not getting a game is usually cheap. But highly rated young kpf is expensive. Just depends on whether he's still rated. How's he going in the vfl?

 

[gouki88]

No idea. 3rd year and not getting a game is usually cheap. But highly rated young kpf is expensive. Just depends on whether he's still rated. How's he going in the vfl?

He's played 2 consecutive games, kicking 2 a game. Not getting a heap of the footy but they're playing him at least. His contested marking has improved

 

[Bramax]

No idea. 3rd year and not getting a game is usually cheap. But highly rated young kpf is expensive. Just depends on whether he's still rated. How's he going in the vfl?

To be fair I haven’t looked.
Against Sydney he was ok. Kicked 2.1 and had the same or even slightly better stats than King. He’s a powerful unit.

 

[sr36]

To be fair I haven’t looked.
Against Sydney he was ok. Kicked 2.1 and had the same or even slightly better stats than King. He’s a powerful unit.

Youd think he's still cost a bomb. Such an athlete and has shown glimpses of being able to do everything.

 

[Bramax]

Youd think he's still cost a bomb. Such an athlete and has shown glimpses of being able to do everything.

What we really need is JUH to force his way into the side because that would probably mean Walter wouldn’t get a game.

 

[Soups]

GC will probably lose king this year so they will want to keep him

Probably? I dunno about that.

 

[manicpie]

Probably? I dunno about that.

He's from the Gold Coast which doesn't help either

 

[nickyds35]

I rekon Gold Coast acquired Ugle-Hagan expecting that Ben King

34

Ben King

Age

25

Ht

202cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

2.2

2star

M

3.5

4star

T

0.5

3star

G

1.3

5star

D

7.5

2star

K

5.6

2star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.3

1star

G

1.5

5star

D

6.8

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

2.4

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

0.2

3star

G

1.0

4star

would leave this year.

 

[sr36]

What we really need is JUH to force his way into the side because that would probably mean Walter wouldn’t get a game.

Is Jamara playing vfl.

 

[gouki88]

Is Jamara playing vfl.

He's played 1 game against Werribee. Didn't score or get a heap of it. Did kick a bag in a preseason hitout against Southport, for whatever that's worth