20th AFL Team

[Canberra Pear]

Ironically, if code wars was the goal for the AFL, Canberra would be a bigger blow.

A Perth NRL team will barely make a dent. It'll just remain an outpost in AFL territory.

Canberra is a multi-code town, but the NRL has bragging rights with the only team. But an AFL team here will be on level-footing with the Raiders.

It's a smaller market, but an AFL team would have a bigger impact in Canberra than an NRL team would have in Perth.

 

[Coolangatta]

Ironically, if code wars was the goal for the AFL, Canberra would be a bigger blow.

A Perth NRL team will barely make a dent. It'll just remain an outpost in AFL territory.

Canberra is a multi-code town, but the NRL has bragging rights with the only team. But an AFL team here will be on level-footing with the Raiders.

It's a smaller market, but an AFL team would have a bigger impact in Canberra than an NRL team would have in Perth.

I agree. The NRL poses no threat to the AFL in WA. If the AFL wants to play code war, Canberra is the perfect target next.

Newcastle, Auckland, Sydney 3, Brisbane 2, Sunshine Coast, and Cairns are too small of an AFL market to target next decade.

 

[Badger17]

In 1903 the NSWFL was formed. When the NSWRL was formed in 1908 many of the teams had the same names and colours. Balmain, East Sydney, North shore and West Sydney. Later teams like St George and Manly, the reverse hapenned.

Most of the foundation NSWRL clubs were outgrowths of the pre-existing RU clubs. Most of them were rebel factions that split off from union loyalist to form the RL clubs, but in the case of Glebe the whole club jumped. Some of the RU clubs that the NSWRL sides split from, or their successors, still exist to this day (Easts, Balmain, Norths), and you'll notice a pattern of them being very similar to the RL clubs.

The normal naming convention for sports clubs of the time was to take the name of local suburb, region, or parish, and use the official, or unofficially official as the case may be, colours of that region. Back in those days many of the local sports clubs were loosely or directly affiliated as well, with many of the same people being involved with the cricket, rugby, bowls, etc, clubs.

Except in the absolutely loosest sense, nobody copied anyone. That's just the way things were done at the time, kind of like Canberra sides being green when blue and gold isn't available is just the done thing these days.

 

[Badger17]

I can see the AFL being code war ****ing idiots though and going for WA3 to take the wind out of any potential NRL sail.

The AFL don't have to worry about that. Be patient enough and the Bears and Daily Tele will do all the work for them.

The Bears don't really want to be in Perth and will take every opportunity to white-ant the Perth project. As soon as the team starts to struggle the calls to play more games in Sydney and/or relocate the club back east will start, and the more they struggle the louder those calls will get.

 

[Badger17]

Ironically, if code wars was the goal for the AFL, Canberra would be a bigger blow.

A Perth NRL team will barely make a dent. It'll just remain an outpost in AFL territory.

Canberra is a multi-code town, but the NRL has bragging rights with the only team. But an AFL team here will be on level-footing with the Raiders.

It's a smaller market, but an AFL team would have a bigger impact in Canberra than an NRL team would have in Perth.

This^^^

A lot could change before 2030, but as things stand Canberra is the weakest chink in the NRL's armour. If the goal is to do as much damage to the NRL as possible, with as little effort as possible, then Canberra is where you'd strike.

The NRL would never see it coming either.

 

[Bjo187]

The AFL don't have to worry about that. Be patient enough and the Bears and Daily Tele will do all the work for them.

The Bears don't really want to be in Perth and will take every opportunity to white-ant the Perth project. As soon as the team starts to struggle the calls to play more games in Sydney and/or relocate the club back east will start, and the more they struggle the louder those calls will get.

Speaking of news corp, the daily tele and their infatuation with Peter Vlandy's, there was an article in the AFR today which was a great read and shows why news corp really pumps up the nrl and gives the afl less exposure these days in comparison (which has been obvious the past few years).

It goes into the extrodinary power he weilds with the media and politicians (including having our own p.m on speed dial) and all the dodgey practices he has used over the years to increase his power and influence.

It's a really long article but is an amazing read for anyone that's interested. The second half of the article is more his NRL/AFL stuff and a source in the NRL saying he's obsessed basically. So I think he'd be well aware of any move into Canberra and would do his best to make life difficult there for the AFL, something Greg Swan mentioned they're doing in North Queensland at the moment too.

https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjFh7Lc0O-MAxW6zjQHHYpGPHYQFnoECA0QAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.afr.com%2Fcompanies%2Fsport%2Finside-the-plot-to-get-rid-of-peter-v-landys-20250422-p5ltej&usg=AOvVaw0qwzYKsyUi5ZF8Zg2nFUBZ&opi=89978449

 

[Badger17]

Speaking of news corp, the daily tele and their infatuation with Peter Vlandy's, there was an article in the AFR today which was a great read and shows why news corp really pumps up the nrl and gives the afl less exposure these days in comparison (which has been obvious the past few years).

It goes into the extrodinary power he weilds with the media and politicians (including having our own p.m on speed dial) and all the dodgey practices he has used over the years to increase his power and influence.

It's a really long article but is an amazing read for anyone that's interested. The second half of the article is more his NRL/AFL stuff and a source in the NRL saying he's obsessed basically. So I think he'd be well aware of any move into Canberra and would do his best to make life difficult there for the AFL, something Greg Swan mentioned they're doing in North Queensland at the moment too.

https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjFh7Lc0O-MAxW6zjQHHYpGPHYQFnoECA0QAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.afr.com%2Fcompanies%2Fsport%2Finside-the-plot-to-get-rid-of-peter-v-landys-20250422-p5ltej&usg=AOvVaw0qwzYKsyUi5ZF8Zg2nFUBZ&opi=89978449

PVL's actions have repeatedly shown that Canberra and Southern NSW more generally is a blind spot, and it's too late anyway.

It would take years for the NRL to have a significant impact on the decline of male participation numbers in the region, the stadium, lack of events and promotion in the region, the NRL's frayed relationship with the ACT government, etc. The NRL has had many opportunities to address those issues in the past, and has consistently chosen to ignore them.

The Raiders and Canberra are well and truly the redheaded stepchild of the NRL, and have been for a long time now. The only time the NRL seem to pay the Raiders any mind is when they need something from them. Barr and the current government is also much more partial to the AFL and cricket than NRL, and I can't see that changing any time soon.

PVL and the NRL would absolutely react if the AFL started making big moves in Canberra, but by that point the AFL would already be inside the gates.

 

[RedV3x]

The normal naming convention for sports clubs of the time was to take the name of local suburb, region, or parish, and use the official, or unofficially official as the case may be, colours of that region.

That contradicts

Except in the absolutely loosest sense, nobody copied anyone.

 

[Badger17]

That contradicts

It doesn't in the slightest.

I don't know which national team was the first to adopt green and gold as their colours, but in a technical sense all that followed suit copied them. However I doubt a single one had that original team in mind when they adopted green and gold for their national team as well, they were just picking up Australia's national colours.

Generally speaking the same was true of the suburban teams back in the day. Despite the cricket club having done it first, the Eastern Suburbs RU and RL clubs didn't really copy the cricket club by picking navy, red, and white for their colours, they just used the colours associated with the Eastern Suburbs.

 

[loco3]

With a new rugby team going to Perth I think it's more and more likely WA3 will be the 20th team, and canberra and NT to follow that

As others have mentioned before, I think WA3 will struggle to get foothold in the market in Perth.

I don’t know that WA3 is the best option for team 20, but if they do go down that route, it might be a clever idea to brand as ‘Celtics’ to tap into the high Irish/Scot/English/Kiwi diaspora in north Perth. I believe there is the highest Irish population per capita in any of the major cities.

There would certainly be
1) interest across the country and might provide a pathway to boost membership numbers outside Perth. I see Perth as being able to sustain 2.5 teams for a while, so being able to attract 10-15k members outside Perth will help.
2) a hook for North Perth locals, with a working class identity to distinguish itself from the eagles
3) might provide a better challenge to an NRL team in Perth, as the Bears will target many from this diaspora.

Lastly, the alternative is a brand new neutral team that may not have the same level of interest to begin with and may struggle for relevance.

 

[GenericUsername202]

Ironically, I think a cairns team is a good idea. Kind of like a North Queensland cowboys situation. It grows the game regionally in QLD, and Cairns is almost a 50/50 split between league and AFL. I would also move GWS to Canberra and make them entirely a western Sydney team.

 

[RedV3x]

they just used the colours associated with the Eastern Suburbs.

In 1899 The Eastern Suburbs cricket club was formed using the tricolour taken from the visiting G.B. team.
In 1900 The Eastern Suburbs rugby club was formed using the tricolour
In 1903 The Eastern Suburbs Football club was formed using the tricolour.
In 1908 The Eastern Suburbs league club was formed using the tricolour

So in this particular case there is a strong connection but generally speaking it was only football and rugby league that had the similarities.
If you look at the SMH of the times they didn't differentiate rugby and football. Both were listed under the title "Football" and you had to know what teams played what. Soccer was listed separately under "British association Football".

 

[The_Wookie]

I can see the AFL being code war ****ing idiots though and going for WA3 to take the wind out of any potential NRL sail.

If they go for WA3 its because its the only likely viable candidate for an AFL expansion team that doesnt cost the league and governments millions annually (See Tas, NT, ACT). WA3 has been mooted LONG before this NRL license - and the only reason it probably hasnt happened is that the WA licenses are held by the WAFC and the AFL isnt overly pleased with the arrangement.

 

[Canberra Pear]

If they go for WA3 its because its the only likely viable candidate for an AFL expansion team that doesnt cost the league and governments millions annually (See Tas, NT, ACT). WA3 has been mooted LONG before this NRL license - and the only reason it probably hasnt happened is that the WA licenses are held by the WAFC and the AFL isnt overly pleased with the arrangement.

I really respect your position as the holder of knowledge in this field, but I'd be keen to understand why you lump the ACT financially with the NT and Tasmania, and hold up WA3 as the only cheap option.

• Yes, Perth has a lot of people. 2.4m people. Canberra has 600k in about an hour.
• WA3 isn't just going to carve out a third of fans. If West Coast and Freo maintain a 60/40 split, and WA3 manages to obtain the same compared to Freo, then WA3 would be aiming for a fifth of Perth (480k).
• Yes, Perth is more AFL focused, but a Canberra team will unite most fans in the region. Even if it's their second team to start with. WA3 is competing against established juggernauts playing in the same city.
• I understand WA teams also have to pay a $1m-plus royalty to the WAFC.
• Yes, Optus is nice and ready. Manuka is already in the early stages for an upgrade to 20k.
• The breakeven on Optus would be much higher than Manuka.
• The ACT Government pays for its national league teams. That's $3m that WA3 wouldn't be getting.
• The ACT Government also seems keen to provide good Manuka deals. Would likely get $1m-plus in in-season naming rights.
• And Canberra has a 40% higher median income. So a higher percentage of fans can afford the price point for memberships, tickets, merch etc.

So I totally get WA3 being a cheaper option than the NT or Tasmania, but can you give some insight why you don't see Canberra as viable, or at least in the same ballpark as WA3?

 

[Philhawk]

I really respect your position as the holder of knowledge in this field, but I'd be keen to understand why you lump the ACT financially with the NT and Tasmania, and hold up WA3 as the only cheap option.

• Yes, Perth has a lot of people. 2.4m people. Canberra has 600k in about an hour.
• WA3 isn't just going to carve out a third of fans. If West Coast and Freo maintain a 60/40 split, and WA3 manages to obtain the same compared to Freo, then WA3 would be aiming for a fifth of Perth (480k).
• Yes, Perth is more AFL focused, but a Canberra team will unite most fans in the region. Even if it's their second team to start with. WA3 is competing against established juggernauts playing in the same city.
• I understand WA teams also have to pay a $1m-plus royalty to the WAFC.
• Yes, Optus is nice and ready. Manuka is already in the early stages for an upgrade to 20k.
• The breakeven on Optus would be much higher than Manuka.
• The ACT Government pays for its national league teams. That's $3m that WA3 wouldn't be getting.
• The ACT Government also seems keen to provide good Manuka deals. Would likely get $1m-plus in in-season naming rights.
• And Canberra has a 40% higher median income. So a higher percentage of fans can afford the price point for memberships, tickets, merch etc.

So I totally get WA3 being a cheaper option than the NT or Tasmania, but can you give some insight why you don't see Canberra as viable, or at least in the same ballpark as WA3?

Few factors.

1) Canberra doesn’t have a deep corporate sponsorship pool — it’s a government town, not a corporate capital compared to the rich market already available on the West Coast.

2) TV revenue and local gate takings would likely rank near the bottom of the leagu unfortunately for a new Canberra team

3) Infrastructure wise, Perth is already ready with the brilliant new Optus Stadium. Money would be needed for a high performance centre for a new team, but we are talking in the tens of millions, not hundreds.

By comparison, I don’t see Canberra getting off the ground unless there’s a lot more money put into upgrading Manuka.

 

[eastfreo75]

Exactly my point. Big first team doesn't equal big second team. Especially if you're getting them to play a handful of home games away.

Very true.

NBA Lakers are huge and Clippers not so much. New York is the same in NBA, Baseball and American Football.

West Coast has almost double the amount of Dockers fans.

A third team would be lucky to get crowds of 15-20k unless they play the other Perth teams or a big Melbourne club ie Collingwood.

West Coast money wise has $100m in the bank and Fremantle breaks even. Adding a third WA would hurt the Dockers and the AFL would need to provide extra money to Fremantle.

The new team would needed to get funding like that of the Northern states.

The excise would cost the AFL $30m per year and would increase the pie only a little.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Few factors.

1) Canberra doesn’t have a deep corporate sponsorship pool — it’s a government town, not a corporate capital compared to the rich market already available on the West Coast.

I hear this one a lot, and I think it's a bit overblown. The majority of major sponsors these days are national.

Canberra would also be attractive to high end sponsors. We were significantly leading the country in Tesla sales. Would've been a perfect sponsorship, before, well, you know.

Also, I actually think Canberra has an advantage with sponsors. A lot of companies, contractors, looking to get an edge to secure lucrative government contracts. Could see some from the likes of Thales, Northrop Grumman, Deloitte etc.

2) TV revenue and local gate takings would likely rank near the bottom of the leagu unfortunately for a new Canberra team

I can't find the stats, but do WA teams rank that well on TV? The_Wookie may be able to provide some insight, but I always thought they were on the lower side in national broadcasts. And WA3 will be lower than them.

As for gate takings, Optus will have a much larger breakeven threshold. Would say gate takings we pretty equal over all, with WA3's more up and down, peaking for the derbies, and losing money against the Giants and Suns.

3) Infrastructure wise, Perth is already ready with the brilliant new Optus Stadium. Money would be needed for a high performance centre for a new team, but we are talking in the tens of millions, not hundreds.

This is the one point that WA3 might have on Canberra. It all depends on whether the latest planned Manuka upgrade can happen.

I'm optimistic it gets the upgrade to coincide with the new BBL team, then Canberra and WA3 will both have new stadium options

 

[Cmarsh]

[

What for? No mergers or expulsions are necessary.

Why not 22 teams with a 21 round home and away season? Each team plays each other once. Home and away status between any two teams to rotate every two years. No conferences or divisions needed.

Three new teams after Tasmania could come from any of the following

Canberra
Darwin
New Zealand
Third SE Qld team
Third WA team

See above.

22 teams? The talent pool would be stretched thin.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Very true.

NBA Lakers are huge and Clippers not so much. New York is the same in NBA, Baseball and American Football.

West Coast has almost double the amount of Dockers fans.

A third team would be lucky to get crowds of 15-20k unless they play the other Perth teams or a big Melbourne club ie Collingwood.

West Coast money wise has $100m in the bank and Fremantle breaks even. Adding a third WA would hurt the Dockers and the AFL would need to provide extra money to Fremantle.

The new team would needed to get funding like that of the Northern states.

The excise would cost the AFL $30m per year and would increase the pie only a little.

A two-team town is amazing. It would be nice if there was more parity between West Coast and Freo, but the derby is strong and gives a "pick a side" vibe like the Showdown in SA.

There aren't many cases of it, but the A Leagues is the only case I can think of when they've added a third team after two were already embedded.

I fear a third team would become the Macarthur of Perth. The annoying third brother nobody asked for, just struggling for relevance. Except West Coast and Freo are much more established than Sydney FC and the Wanderers.

 

[Philhawk]

I hear this one a lot, and I think it's a bit overblown. The majority of major sponsors these days are national.

Canberra would also be attractive to high end sponsors. We were significantly leading the country in Tesla sales. Would've been a perfect sponsorship, before, well, you know.

Also, I actually think Canberra has an advantage with sponsors. A lot of companies, contractors, looking to get an edge to secure lucrative government contracts. Could see some from the likes of Thales, Northrop Grumman, Deloitte etc.



I can't find the stats, but do WA teams rank that well on TV? The_Wookie may be able to provide some insight, but I always thought they were on the lower side in national broadcasts. And WA3 will be lower than them.

As for gate takings, Optus will have a much larger breakeven threshold. Would say gate takings we pretty equal over all, with WA3's more up and down, peaking for the derbies, and losing money against the Giants and Suns.



This is the one point that WA3 might have on Canberra. It all depends on whether the latest planned Manuka upgrade can happen.

I'm optimistic it gets the upgrade to coincide with the new BBL team, then Canberra and WA3 will both have new stadium options

On the sponsorship side, isn’t the best comparison the Raiders? Commercially they do well but still pale in comparison to most other NRL teams.

Regarding TV, the one advantage a Canberra team would have is the east coast tv slot for home games. West Coast would be top 6 in terms of tv ratings, Freo slightly lower. Given the expected growth of the WA population compared to the ACT, I do think this would be a significant advantage.

I would also love to see a Manuka upgrade, but I just can’t see it. Raiders have also been crying for ages for an upgrade and I just can’t see the government stumping for one and risking the political backlash of not helping the other.

 

[Canberra Pear]

On the sponsorship side, isn’t the best comparison the Raiders? Commercially they do well but still pale in comparison to most other NRL teams.

The NRL sponsors seem like a different kettle of fish to me. Just going through their jerseys, and only a handful have high-level national sponsors.

Whereas more than half of the AFL teams have car sponsorships. National level sponsorships seem to gravitate more towards AFL, which means local level isn't as important.

Regarding TV, the one advantage a Canberra team would have is the east coast tv slot for home games. West Coast would be top 6 in terms of tv ratings, Freo slightly lower.

In terms of fans watching their team, absolutely, WA has a lot of people, but is that the case nationally? I can't find the stats, but I swore they were lower on the list in terms of eyeballs.

Given the expected growth of the WA population compared to the ACT, I do think this would be a significant advantage.

I assume you mean overall growth, because percentage, ACT is predicted to grow quicker. As it has for the past two censuses.

I would also love to see a Manuka upgrade, but I just can’t see it. Raiders have also been crying for ages for an upgrade and I just can’t see the government stumping for one and risking the political backlash of not helping the other.

Completely understand this thinking. There's a general view that Barr is an AFL fan, but can't justify an upgrade for AFL, but is able to justify it for cricket. It's a bit of a Trojan horse upgrade.

If we get the BBL team, I fully expect Manuka gets the upgrade.

 

[Coolangatta]

[
22 teams? The talent pool would be stretched thin.

Not now, but 30-50 years.

I’d love to see ACT and NT have teams to make the game truly national.

Make ACT 20 but I guess it could stay at 20 because the NT would be so hard to get over the line.

 

[RedV3x]

22 teams? The talent pool would be stretched thin.

People always get confused between talent, standard of play and watch-ability of a game.
The attractiveness of a game does depend on both teams having a number of champions.
More champions doesn't mean a better game if the number is unbalanced or they simply nullify each other.

The main ingredients for an attractive game are coaches willingness for an attacking game and umpiring consistency.
We've gone through many dour coaching strategies but a.t.m. coaches seem to know the importance of breaking the lines.
i watch a lot of non-AFL football games and I find them attractive when teams are competitive.
The WAFL and SANFL were hugely attractive before the AFL came about, collectively drawing bigger crowds proportionally than AFL games today.

 

[loco3]

On the sponsorship side, isn’t the best comparison the Raiders? Commercially they do well but still pale in comparison to most other NRL teams.

Regarding TV, the one advantage a Canberra team would have is the east coast tv slot for home games. West Coast would be top 6 in terms of tv ratings, Freo slightly lower. Given the expected growth of the WA population compared to the ACT, I do think this would be a significant advantage.

I would also love to see a Manuka upgrade, but I just can’t see it. Raiders have also been crying for ages for an upgrade and I just can’t see the government stumping for one and risking the political backlash of not helping the other.

Wouldn’t a WA team provide a more attractive TV slot? The afl could schedule a Friday night double header or a Sunday twilight game that appears at prime time in the eastern states due to the time difference. I thought this was one of the most compelling arguments for a 3rd WA side

 

[Bjo187]

Eddie was asked his thoughts on team 20 on his podcast today. The media really haven't thought much about this but I'm glad the n.t option isn't being spoken of as much and the w.a 3 and QLD 3 are now gaining some traction.

The question is about half way through.