20th AFL Team

[Canberra Pear]

Fair enough, appreciate the insight. But I don’t think that invalidates my comment that GWS have not grown so quickly as to suggest 11 games in western Sydney is required in the short term at least.

Canberra provides financial security for an expensive expansion. Doubt the AFL will want to step in and prop the club up further if they lose this income.

As I showed before, the Giants' dependence on Canberra is overstated. The Giants could absolutely play 11 games in Western Sydney.

But if the AFL wanted to be more cautious, they could always pick another secondary market that needed less attention.

Picking somewhere that only needs 1 or 2 games a year in a secondary market means they could be playing 9 or 10 in Western Sydney, and one step closer to a full-time presence.

But even if the Giants aren't ready to stand on their own (which I disagree with), there are other options than Canberra.

 

[Giant YoYo]

As I showed before, the Giants' dependence on Canberra is overstated. The Giants could absolutely play 11 games in Western Sydney.

But if the AFL wanted to be more cautious, they could always pick another secondary market that needed less attention.

Picking somewhere that only needs 1 or 2 games a year in a secondary market means they could be playing 9 or 10 in Western Sydney, and one step closer to a full-time presence.

But even if the Giants aren't ready to stand on their own (which I disagree with), there are other options than Canberra.

Canberra is overstated in these forums.

Footy fans want to find a easy solution where there isn't one, Canberra isn't it.

Canberra having its own team would tie in southern NSW and ACT nicely.

 

[Giant YoYo]

Fair enough, appreciate the insight. But I don’t think that invalidates my comment that GWS have not grown so quickly as to suggest 11 games in western Sydney is required in the short term at least.

Canberra provides financial security for an expensive expansion. Doubt the AFL will want to step in and prop the club up further if they lose this income.

Maybe the next few years will prove really fruitful for GWS and they can make the move to western Sydney full time (I hope that’s the case), but the numbers don’t seem to support the case for doing so at the moment.

Canberra undermines what they're trying to achieve with a secondary Sydney team.

You have no idea the hit pieces that occur here, playing in Canberra just adds to it.

I have nothing against Canberra but it's not the fix many think it is.

I'm a football fan first and foremost, I see it very clearly. While I'd love to say Canberra is a solution it actually isn't. The whole conversation has become corrosive.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Canberra provides financial security for an expensive expansion. Doubt the AFL will want to step in and prop the club up further if they lose this income.

You were arguing that the AFL should accept the financial risk of a whole new second Brisbane team due to its high ceiling, but that the $1.5m gap from the Giants leaving Canberra is too much to have two full-time teams in a city twice the size?

 

[Giant YoYo]

Southern NSW and ACT would do well with a team, it would tie it in so well and strengthen footy in this area.

 

[The Educator]

Aussie rules is already pretty well represented across Australia maybe we should pause team 20 until after the olympics and see where the chips fall. Team 20 location is not a slam dunk. For mine it would be Canberra but the gws situation puts it in murky waters, weakening gws just seems like not an option right now.

It’s a bit different for nrl team 20 who have viable options for expansion in nz2 or Brisbane3, or major markets they’re yet to enter like Adelaide.

Haha, Rugby league have more viable options! Remarkably delusional.

Brisbane 3? The Dolphins and the Titans are the two lowest supported NRL clubs according to roy morgan.
Adelaide? Why would Adelaide NRL be more successful than Canberra AFL?
NZ 2? Where? RL has limited popularity outside of Auckland and the cities are smaller than Canberra.

RL hasn't had great success with expansion and it has one club just coming off its honeymoon and 2 more risky ventures that havent even started yet.

Reality is going to kick in a few years that expansion means a long grind in the mid term. There were three low hanging fruit across both codes (First AFL teams in Perth and Adelaide and first NRL team in Brisbane). Everything else takes long term commitment that the AFL has shown far greater stores of.

 

[hampton]

Haha, Rugby league have more viable options! Remarkably delusional.

Brisbane 3? The Dolphins and the Titans are the two lowest supported NRL clubs according to roy morgan.
Adelaide? Why would Adelaide NRL be more successful than Canberra AFL?
NZ 2? Where? RL has limited popularity outside of Auckland and the cities are smaller than Canberra.

RL hasn't had great success with expansion and it has one club just coming off its honeymoon and 2 more risky ventures that havent even started yet.

Reality is going to kick in a few years that expansion means a long grind in the mid term. There were three low hanging fruit across both codes (First AFL teams in Perth and Adelaide and first NRL team in Brisbane). Everything else takes long term commitment that the AFL has shown far greater stores of.

The nrl haven’t even scratched the surface of their low hanging fruits (Perth still coming, dolphins should’ve entered 20 years ago) while afl have already bitten that off (with Canberra remaining, but mucking it up with gws being kinda Canberra based).

You think rugby league in Queensland doesn’t have enough support in SEQ for another nrl team? I’d say it could support another 2-3 more easily. The dolphins are a brand new club and averaging 23k including having to play some of their games in a 10k stadium and also take 1 home game to Darwin pulling their average down. And they’re based in the Redcliffe peninsula of much smaller population than the unserviced Ipswich area. Think it’s a bit rich to say they’re not well supported when the afl expansion teams can’t get close to that after 15 years. Dolphins have been infinitely more successful from day one. If the dolphins are not popular in your view what does that make GWS or the Suns??

The western Brisbane corridor of Ipswich-Logan-Toowomba area as an nrl team location is the most heartland of all league heartlands, is big and rapidly growing in population, and doesn’t have an nrl team. There are multiple other non-QZ nrl teams that have set academies there, because it’s not being serviced adequately by the broncos and because of the rich pathways opportunity there. This area represents 800k+ people.

NZ2 would also be a no brainer in Christchurch. lowest of low hanging fruit for the nrl - massive support in NZ and only being serviced by one Auckland based team, brand new stadium being built. Immediate new north island vs South Island rivalry created. Nz government would be chomping to get a big anchor nrl tenant for their new One Nz stadium. Christchurch has 600k people living within an hour drive of the centre of Christchurch and the South Island has 1.2m people total. Plenty bigger than Canberra.

That’s at least two clearly viable options in larger markets. In fact the nrl just have to pick one of those two (forgetting about other markets) just to get to 20. One will miss out.

The afl team 20 whichever way you go is facing compromises. I still think WA3 makes the most sense, but unlike SEQ for the nrl it doesn’t have as big a population, it doesn’t have any existing club or fan push for it unlike the qrl clubs are doing for another SEQ nrl team, it doesn’t have an obvious rich club that could be promoted from the wafl to the afl unlike a few clubs that could be from the qrl like Brisbane tigers or Ipswich jets with having supporting football infrastructure, programs, staff, leagues clubs and fanbases.

Canberra makes sense but it’s currently propping up GWS and there’s a risk of harming support for GWS (members dropping off, lower average crowds). The only way Canberra can make sense is if and when gws stopping playing there and we can see how GWS fares - which doesn’t look like it’s happening any time soon

Brisbane2 is way too early to be discussed.

Which of those is more viable?

 

[threenewpadlocks]

The nrl haven’t even scratched the surface of their low hanging fruits (Perth still coming, dolphins should’ve entered 20 years ago) while afl have already bitten that off (with Canberra remaining, but mucking it up with gws being kinda Canberra based).

You think rugby league in Queensland doesn’t have enough support in SEQ for another nrl team? I’d say it could support another 2-3 more easily. The dolphins are a brand new club and averaging 23k including having to play some of their games in a 10k stadium and also take 1 home game to Darwin pulling their average down. And they’re based in the Redcliffe peninsula of much smaller population than the unserviced Ipswich area. Think it’s a bit rich to say they’re not well supported when the afl expansion teams can’t get close to that after 15 years. Dolphins have been infinitely more successful from day one.

The Ipswich-Logan area as an nrl team location is the most heartland of all league heartlands, is big and rapidly growing in population, and doesn’t have an nrl team. There are multiple other non-QZ nrl teams that have set academies there, because it’s not being serviced adequately by the broncos and because of the rich pathways opportunity there.

NZ2 would also be a no brainer in Christchurch. lowest of low hanging fruit for the nrl - massive support in NZ and only being serviced by one Auckland based team, brand new stadium being built. Immediate new north island vs South Island rivalry created. Nz government would be chomping to get a big anchor nrl tenant for their new One Nz stadium.

That’s at least two clearly viable options in larger markets. In fact the nrl just have to pick one of those two (forgetting about other markets) just to get to 20. One will miss out.

The afl team 20 whichever way you go is facing compromises. I still think WA3 makes the most sense, but unlike SEQ for the nrl it doesn’t have as big a population, it doesn’t have any existing club or fan push for it unlike the qrl clubs are doing for another SEQ nrl team, it doesn’t have an obvious rich club that could be promoted from the wafl to the afl unlike a few clubs that could be from the qrl like Brisbane tigers or Ipswich jets with having supporting football infrastructure, programs, staff, leagues clubs and fanbases.

Canberra makes sense but it’s currently propping up GWS and there’s a risk of harming support for GWS (members dropping off, lower average crowds). The only way Canberra can make sense is if and when gws stopping playing there and we can see how GWS fares - which doesn’t look like it’s happening any time soon

Brisbane2 is way too early to be discussed.

Which of those is more viable?

Dude, you're on an AFL forum.

Of course you're going to be disagreed with about your propagandised, wide-eyed view about the NRL's successes, as clearly an NRL fan.

You're not going to convince people of it here, so what exactly are you trying to achieve? You're just optimistic to a fault. People are trying to engage with you in good faith, in good humour, providing evidence and justifications to the viewpoint you have, and you're just like "wrong! propaganda!".

Honestly mate, what's the point here, do you get kicks out of the fact that every time you post, zero people agree with you, and that's not a wake up call that you might not actually be right here?

For example, take this paragraph.

NZ2 would also be a no brainer in Christchurch. lowest of low hanging fruit for the nrl - massive support in NZ and only being serviced by one Auckland based team, brand new stadium being built. Immediate new north island vs South Island rivalry created. Nz government would be chomping to get a big anchor nrl tenant for their new One Nz stadium.

There is absolutely not a "no brainer" element to having an NRL team in Christchurch. Christchurch has a small population (less than 500,000), Rugby League remains less popular there than it does on North Island, with a bigger traditional working class base in Auckland. Crusaders gets less attendances for Super Rugby than other franchises. The North Island vs. South Island as "rivalry" is something you've invented in your head as rivalries in NZ are more provincial and within an Island rather than across it, while it does exist, it's not inherent in the Kiwi identity to think of it this way. "NZ government would be chomping at the bit to get a big anchor tenant". Would they? They've already planned for an appropriate use for it which justified its construction - Crusaders, Canterbury NRC, soccer, national team events. There is genuine reason to be fearful about a lack of Christchurch interest in the NRL, simply because of a lowish population in a country where RU s more popular than RL (which is not true in Aus). For context, Newcastle has a bigger population than Christchurch, RL is obviously far stronger there in Chrischurch, yet Newcastle's long term crowd trend is about 22k. If we take that as a baseline and expect Christchurch to get smaller crowds, around the 16-18k mark, it instantly is in the bottom few for average home attendances and therefore is perhaps not ideal as a club.

This isn't to say that a Christchurch team isn't feasible, or indeed that NRL won't put a team there - they likely will. But you yourself used the words "no brainer", and yet there are clearly "brainer" things to think about, and your arguments are just propagandising and can reasonably be disagreed with.

Yet instead of having an intelligent discussion and/or recognising the validity of the arguments here you'd rather go you wrong, me right.

You have previously refused to accept a multitude of valid, generally acceptable data that has NRL at about 80% of the interest of the AFL in Australia (and even less in terms of converting that interest into getting people to spend their money and revenue generation of the sport), yet carry on as if that's not true, for instance.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Geelong a team that was in a remote town (long way to get to before planes and cars)

You ever heard of these things called trains?

 

[The Educator]

The nrl haven’t even scratched the surface of their low hanging fruits

(Perth still coming, dolphins should’ve entered 20 years ago) while afl have already bitten that off (with Canberra remaining, but mucking it up with gws being kinda Canberra based).

You think rugby league in Queensland doesn’t have enough support in SEQ for another nrl team?

Nah, I think another RL team in Queensland will be add nothing but drain the game. This is obvious

I’d say it could support another 2-3 more easily. The dolphins are a brand new club and averaging 23k including having to play some of their games in a 10k stadium and also take 1 home game to Darwin pulling their average down.

They are, and will, continue, to shrink back to a little club. Their crowds are dropping year on year.

And they’re based in the Redcliffe peninsula of much smaller population than the unserviced Ipswich area. Think it’s a bit rich to say they’re not well supported when the afl expansion teams can’t get close to that after 15 years. Dolphins have been infinitely more successful from day one.

I didn't say the Giants or the Suns are low hanging fruit - the complete opposite in fact. The Dockers and the Power werent low hanging fruit but they a far bigger than the Dolphins will ever be. The bottom line is they waited far too long and it doesnt matter if / where they try and plonk another NRL club in Brisbane, it will be another drain like the Titans and the Dolphins will be.

The Ipswich-Logan area is the most heartland of all league heartlands, is big and rapidly growing in population, and doesn’t have an nrl team. There are multiple other non-QZ nrl teams that have set academies there, because it’s not being serviced adequately by the broncos and because of the rich pathways opportunity there.

NZ2 would also be a no brainer in Christchurch. lowest of low hanging fruit for the nrl - massive support in NZ and only being serviced by one Auckland based team, brand new stadium being built. Immediate new north island vs South Island rivalry created.

haha, there is not massive support for rugby league in Christchurch. What are you talking about? There is far more support for AF in Canberra with reasonably close AF hinterland. Christchurch is rugby union central. There are apparently 15 clubs in all of cantebury. You're so deluded!

That’s at least two clearly viable options in larger markets. In fact the nrl just have to pick one of those two (forgetting about other markets) just to get to 20. One will miss out.

18 and 19 havent even started yet and 17 is just finishing its honeymoon phase. What you dont get is that expansion requires an enormous amount of energy to work. After the novelty wears off, more teams that you don't really have any feelings either way towards and less games between clubs with decades of emnity. Longer periods where your club is not competing for ultimate success.

The afl team 20 whichever way you go is facing compromises. I still think WA3 makes the most sense, but unlike SEQ for the nrl it doesn’t have as big a population, it doesn’t have any existing club or fan push for it unlike the qrl clubs are doing for another SEQ nrl team, it doesn’t have an obvious rich club that could be promoted from the wafl to the afl unlike a few clubs that could be in the nrl like Brisbane tigers or Ipswich jets that both having supporting leagues clubs and fanbases.

Mark my words, no additional Brisbane NRL club will be anything but a pissant. Adding more clubs in 2025 that only viable base is a pokies club is insane anyway

Canberra makes sense but it’s currently propping up GWS and there’s a risk of harming support for GWS (members dropping off, lower average crowds).

Brisbane2 is way too early to be discussed.

Which of those is more viable?

Canberra AFL club attached to the NSW riverina is clearly more viable than any additional NRL club. You are just deluded is the thing

 

[Canberra Pear]

Canberra makes sense but it’s currently propping up GWS and there’s a risk of harming support for GWS (members dropping off, lower average crowds). The only way Canberra can make sense is if and when gws stopping playing there and we can see how GWS fares - which doesn’t look like it’s happening any time soon

You need to get past this perception.

It's overstated how much the Giants rely on Canberra; Canberra only has 1/5 (and they're only three-game members); and Canberra is ultimately holding back the Giants in Western Sydney.

The Giants will be fine without Canberra, but if it's deemed that they're not quite ready full-time presence in Sydney, they're are better options than Canberra that don't spread them so thin.

 

[hampton]

Dude, you're on an AFL forum.

Of course you're going to be disagreed with about your propagandised, wide-eyed view about the NRL's successes, as clearly an NRL fan.

You're not going to convince people of it here, so what exactly are you trying to achieve? You're just optimistic to a fault. People are trying to engage with you in good faith, in good humour, providing evidence and justifications to the viewpoint you have, and you're just like "wrong! propaganda!".

I’m also discussing with good faith and humour don’t take it too much to heart if you don’t like my views. I post here plenty purely about afl but when I bring up nrl in response to someone else or as a valid point of comparison I get flamed. If you don’t like it just skip and read on.

There is absolutely not a "no brainer" element to having an NRL team in Christchurch. Christchurch has a small population (less than 500,000),

Christchurch has a bigger population than Hobart, Geelong or Canberra.

Rugby League remains less popular there than it does on North Island, with a bigger traditional working class base in Auckland.

Rugby league has historically been more popular in the north island but is still popular in the South Island and rapidly growing. Many awesome nrl players have come from the south island. Nrl games taken to Christchurch have all sold out. AFL and nrl have previously expanded to cities with way less support for their code than Christchurch has for nrl.

Crusaders gets less attendances for Super Rugby than other franchises.

Super rugby is losing relevance and interest and NRL is rapidly rising in popularity in NZ all over the country. Warriors sell out everywhere they go.

The North Island vs. South Island as "rivalry" is something you've invented in your head as rivalries in NZ are more provincial and within an Island rather than across it, while it does exist, it's not inherent in the Kiwi identity to think of it this way.

If you don’t like north vs south is Auckland vs Canterbury better for you then? The point is it will create a major new rivalry, which it will.

"NZ government would be chomping at the bit to get a big anchor tenant". Would they? They've already planned for an appropriate use for it which justified its construction - Crusaders, Canterbury NRC, soccer, national team events.

You just said crusaders aren’t getting big crowds just like all super rugby crowds- yet that is the best plan Nz have for it? You think they wouldn’t want an nrl team getting 20k+ there every other week?

There is genuine reason to be fearful about a lack of Christchurch interest in the NRL, simply because of a lowish population in a country where RU s more popular than RL (which is not true in Aus). For context, Newcastle has a bigger population than Christchurch, RL is obviously far stronger there in Chrischurch, yet Newcastle's long term crowd trend is about 22k. If we take that as a baseline and expect Christchurch to get smaller crowds, around the 16-18k mark, it instantly is in the bottom few for average home attendances and therefore is perhaps not ideal as a club.

This is flat out wrong not sure where you’re getting your population figures. Newcastle certainly does not have a bigger population than Christchurch has. If you want to incorporate the whole hunter region in your Newcastle population then you also need to incorporate the towns that surround Christchurch - especially considering this would be a team for the whole of South Island and would attract people further afield.

This isn't to say that a Christchurch team isn't feasible, or indeed that NRL won't put a team there - they likely will. But you yourself used the words "no brainer", and yet there are clearly "brainer" things to think about, and your arguments are just propagandising and can reasonably be disagreed with.

It’s more no brainer than any of the options the afl has to consider for team 20. Happy if you want to convince me of otherwise.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Christchurch has a bigger population than Hobart, Geelong or Canberra.

Happy to be corrected, but from what I can tell, the urban area of Christchurch is about 410k. The Significant Urban Area of Canberra-Queanbeyan is 510k.

Greater Christchurch has 550k, but that includes a lot of rural hinterland. The equivalent around Canberra (Yass, Murrumbateman, Googong etc), would get it well over 600k.

 

[hampton]

Nah, I think another RL team in Queensland will be add nothing but drain the game. This is obvious

Since the dolphins entered the nrl:

• overall crowds have sharply risen
• overall tv numbers especially in qld have risen
• the broncos have had to work harder and it’s reinvigorated that club and forced them to do more marketing
• it’s created a much needed rivalry in Brisbane thats become a a major event
• the dolphins are in the top 6 of average crowds in the nrl competition, even though they play a bunch of games in tiny stadiums
• the nrl has never been bigger and better

If this is a drain to the game I’m sure the nrl would love more draining.

They are, and will, continue, to shrink back to a little club. Their crowds are dropping year on year.

More like they will continue to grow to become a major nrl club.

I didn't say the Giants or the Suns are low hanging fruit - the complete opposite in fact. The Dockers and the Power werent low hanging fruit but they a far bigger than the Dolphins will ever be. The bottom line is they waited far too long and it doesnt matter if / where they try and plonk another NRL club in Brisbane, it will be another drain like the Titans and the Dolphins will be.

The giants and suns in comparison are at the bottom of afl crowds by far. The haven’t sparked the imagination of their fanbase (suns is close). Dockers and Power big existing clubs in the lower divisions, similar to the dolphins though there are bigger clubs in the qrl than the Redcliffe dolphins, but those afl clubs have been around now in the afl for what 30 years? Bit unfair to compare the dolphins to them after 3 years. In 30 years I bet the dolphins will be a major club.

haha, there is not massive support for rugby league in Christchurch. What are you talking about? There is far more support for AF in Canberra with reasonably close AF hinterland. Christchurch is rugby union central. There are apparently 15 clubs in all of cantebury. You're so deluded!

There is massive support for rugby league and nrl in nz, including Christchurch. Yes there’s also support for afl in Canberra. But Canberra is a bit fuxked up right now with gws playing games there - Canberra and western Sydney need to figure out what’s going on.

18 and 19 havent even started yet and 17 is just finishing its honeymoon phase. What you dont get is that expansion requires an enormous amount of energy to work. After the novelty wears off, more teams that you don't really have any feelings either way towards and less games between clubs with decades of emnity. Longer periods where your club is not competing for ultimate success.

Ok.

Mark my words, no additional Brisbane NRL club will be anything but a pissant. Adding more clubs in 2025 that only viable base is a pokies club is insane anyway

hard disagree but you’re entitled to your opinion, even if it’s not based on anything other than your wishes than anything based in truth.

Canberra AFL club attached to the NSW riverina is clearly more viable than any additional NRL club. You are just deluded is the thing

Canberra and Riverina are completely seperate areas that vicorians love to lump together for some reason. People from the Riverina don’t consider themselves as Canberrans or anything close and vice versa. It’s not a match like you think it is, it’s a major stretch.

 

[hampton]

You need to get past this perception.

It's overstated how much the Giants rely on Canberra; Canberra only has 1/5 (and they're only three-game members); and Canberra is ultimately holding back the Giants in Western Sydney.

The Giants will be fine without Canberra, but if it's deemed that they're not quite ready full-time presence in Sydney, they're are better options than Canberra that don't spread them so thin.

just one question - do you think the afl would put a team in Canberra without having tested gws being based in western Sydney alone?

If not they would be happy to expand capacity by 20% in western Sydney and 80% in Canberra simultaneously?

What metrics do we have in either market that suggests this would be a sound business decision?

 

[Canberra Pear]

just one question - do you think the afl would put a team in Canberra without having tested gws being based in western Sydney alone?

Yes.

Because, as I've stated many times, the insistence of the Giants' reliance on Canberra is heavily overstated.

People also seem to have this feeling that Canberra can't get a team yet as we're a back up for the Giants. The Giants are never relocating. We don't need to be "saved" for the Giants.

But also, how do we ever "test" the Giants as a standalone if you never let them stand alone?

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Wouldn't write off Southport Sharks.....old established club......big matches at Victoria Stadium , Smaller venue Gold Coast stadium, natural rival to GC and Lions...Direct train line between Southport + Brisbane.

What on earth is "Victoria Stadium"? And no, there isn't a direct train line between Southport and Brisbane. You have to change at Helensvale.

 

[hampton]

Yes.

Because, as I've stated many times, the insistence of the Giants' reliance on Canberra is heavily overstated.

People also seem to have this feeling that Canberra can't get a team yet as we're a back up for the Giants. The Giants are never relocating. We don't need to be "saved" for the Giants.

But also, how do we ever "test" the Giants as a standalone if you never let them stand alone?

If I was the afl I’d be considering that a big risk. We know that Canberra takes the shittier games. They get a few games a year so anything is better than nothing. Still I don’t think it’s a question of Canberra not being able to support a team standalone but more of a question of what would happen to gws in such a scenario they are playing games like gws vs suns and gws vs north Melbourne in western Sydney. The money reliance they get from Canberra is a minor point.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Since the dolphins entered the nrl:

Are you aware of the "cause and effect" and "correlation is not causation"?

People aren't turning up to a Sydney blockbuster because the introduction of Dolphins in the NRL is the direct cause that makes them have a different view of the NRL generally.

More like they will continue to grow to become a major nrl club.

This is a response to the entirely correct factual statement that their crowds have declined year on year in their existence, but you've framed it as "continue[ing] to grow". At least in the context of crowds, there is no debate, there nothing to be discussed, it is an entirely correct and factual statement that Dolphins' crowds have declined year on year, and the nature of their fixturing has been similar enough year on year that it isn't due to fixture effect.

Yet the framing of "continuing to grow", as in there has been year-on-year growth, is just untrue. It's not representitative of the facts that we can all look at of year-on-year crowd numbers.

For instance, of Dolphins 5 biggest crowds not against the Broncos, 4 came in 2023 and 1 in 2024, with zero in 2025. How is that "continuing to grow"?

What's the point of having a conversation if you can't even acknowledge the reality we all know is true and exists, that is, the Dolphins in their NRL existence, at least in the context of crowds, are not "contnuing to grow"?

The giants and suns in comparison are at the bottom of afl crowds by far. The haven’t sparked the imagination of their fanbase (suns is close).

Sure, but this isn't the strategic aim of the AFL - it never was about having a successful club with comparable revenue generation to existing clubs, at least in the 1-2 generation, 20-50 year timeframe.

It was about the AFL, with its rich TV deals from 2007 onwards, using some of that money to attempt to fulfil its non-profit mission of spreading the game, levering the existence of those teams to try and convert fans over the long term. What fanbase is there to spark? It's a slow burn, by design.

Dockers big existing club in the lower divisions,

HAHAHAHAHAHA lol

There is massive support for rugby league and nrl in nz, including Christchurch.

NRL works in Auckland because it's a metro base of 1.5 million people, but Rugby League is less popular relative to RU in Christchurch than it is in the rest of NZ generally and it is one-third of the size of RU.

That is google trends data, as good as any to highlight the relative interest in the two sports. Your assertion for "massive support" is just you making things up because you want them to be true.

Yes there’s also support for afl in Canberra.

You're understating this as a comparable POV. AFL is about equally as popular as RL in Canberra.

Canberra and Riverina are completely seperate areas that vicorians love to lump together for some reason.

Because for the purposes of AFL administration (e.g. Academies, branding) the AFL will lump them in together.

I've gone to Canberra AFL games and you also see people wearing e.g. Wagga club hoodies at games. People are part of the community, they do make the drive.

 

[hampton]

Are you aware of the "cause and effect" and "correlation is not causation"

I’m aware of it.

People aren't turning up to a Sydney blockbuster because the introduction of Dolphins in the NRL is the direct cause that makes them have a different view of the NRL generally.

Being a follower of the game of league I can for sure say that the dolphins have played a big part in the growth of the game in whole. Just have to listen to fans, broadcasters, podcasters, players etc to know that. SEQ is an engine roam of rugby league and adding the dolphins has been equivalent to adding coal into the engine room.

This is a response to the entirely correct factual statement that their crowds have declined year on year in their existence, but you've framed it as "continue[ing] to grow". At least in the context of crowds, there is no debate, there nothing to be discussed, it is an entirely correct and factual statement that Dolphins' crowds have declined year on year, and the nature of their fixturing has been similar enough year on year that it isn't due to fixture effect.

Every new club has a halo in the first year with bigger crowds. You’re making it sound like that support is declining which is not a fair argument to make and I’m sure you know that.

Yet the framing of "continuing to grow", as in there has been year-on-year growth, is just untrue. It's not representitative of the facts that we can all look at of year-on-year crowd numbers.

As above.

For instance, of Dolphins 5 biggest crowds not against the Broncos, 4 came in 2023 and 1 in 2024, with zero in 2025. How is that "continuing to grow"?

As above. You can’t look at a short 3 year history and start making comparison trends. A brand new club is always going to get a boost in in its first year compared to the next ones.

What's the point of having a conversation if you can't even acknowledge the reality we all know is true and exists, that is, the Dolphins in their NRL existence, at least in the context of crowds, are not "contnuing to grow"?

As above you’re trying to keep make this same point which no one would agree with you that knows anything about nrl and rugby league that the dolphins are declining in popularity

Sure, but this isn't the strategic aim of the AFL - it never was about having a successful club with comparable revenue generation to existing clubs, at least in the 1-2 generation, 20-50 year timeframe.

So you want to judge dolphins on 3 years but you give gws and suns a pass as it’s not been a multiple generation timeframe of 50 years that has been reached? This is hypocritical to the nth degree. Why do the dolphins have to be a massive club from day one but it’s ok that gws struggle to get above 10k crowds after 15 years in a city of 5m people?

It was about the AFL, with its rich TV deals from 2007 onwards, using some of that money to attempt to fulfil its non-profit mission of spreading the game, levering the existence of those teams to try and convert fans over the long term. What fanbase is there to spark? It's a slow burn, by design.

Very slow burn, the wick hasn’t started to burn if anything it’s gone backwards over a ‘short’ 15 year period.

View attachment 2495758

NRL works in Auckland because it's a metro base of 1.5 million people, but Rugby League is less popular relative to RU in Christchurch than it is in the rest of NZ generally and it is one-third of the size of RU.

• RU is by far the biggest sport in Nz it’s ok that rugby league isn’t bigger than it
• Nzers have a way more agnostic view of the rugby codes than in Australia, most are happy to follow both and do so
• the trend shows that RL is growing at a fast clip and the nrl should take advantage of that to accelerate that growth further

That is google trends data, as good as any to highlight the relative interest in the two sports. Your assertion for "massive support" is just you making things up because you want them to be true.

I never said rugby league is as popular as union just that it has a lot of fans and is growing rapidly in NZ which it is.

You're understating this as a comparable POV. AFL is about equally as popular as RL in Canberra.

what evidences are there that rugby league and afl are as popular as each other in Canberra? Maybe 40 years ago but not now.

Because for the purposes of AFL administration (e.g. Academies, branding) the AFL will lump them in together.

But fans won’t and that’s the whole point you’re trying to make that a Canberra afl team will attract plenty of fans from the Riverina as ‘their team’ which it won’t.

 

[The Educator]

Since the dolphins entered the nrl:

• overall crowds have sharply risen
• overall tv numbers especially in qld have risen
• the broncos have had to work harder and it’s reinvigorated that club and forced them to do more marketing
• it’s created a much needed rivalry in Brisbane thats become a a major event
• the dolphins are in the top 6 of average crowds in the nrl competition, even though they play a bunch of games in tiny stadiums
• the nrl has never been bigger and better

If this is a drain to the game I’m sure the nrl would love more draining.


More like they will continue to grow to become a major nrl club.

The giants and suns in comparison are at the bottom of afl crowds by far. The haven’t sparked the imagination of their fanbase (suns is close). Dockers and Power big existing clubs in the lower divisions, similar to the dolphins though there are bigger clubs in the qrl than the Redcliffe dolphins, but those afl clubs have been around now in the afl for what 30 years? Bit unfair to compare the dolphins to them after 3 years. In 30 years I bet the dolphins will be a major club.

Precisely missed the point

The Dockers werent a club. Port were a massive club. Both joined within 8 years of the first AFL club in those states. That got in earlier and had sufficient gravitas to become decent sized clubs. Port had barely half the crowds in its 15 year that it got in its first.

It is a long haul even when you have the initial conditions right which the Dolphins and any other new RL brisbane clubs certainly dont.

The Suns and Giants are a much longer haul still. But, unlike gestures towards hampton no body thinks they are going to magic into big clubs.

There is massive support for rugby league and nrl in nz, including Christchurch.

Haha, no there is not! You're deluded!

Yes there’s also support for afl in Canberra.

AFL is far more popular in Canberra than RL is in christchurch.

But Canberra is a bit fuxked up right now with gws playing games there - Canberra and western Sydney need to figure out what’s going on.

Ok.

hard disagree but you’re entitled to your opinion, even if it’s not based on anything other than your wishes than anything based in truth.

haha, the projection!

It is based on the Titans and Dolphins being pissant clubs. Your view is pure fantasy

Canberra and Riverina are completely seperate areas that vicorians love to lump together for some reason. People from the Riverina don’t consider themselves as Canberrans or anything close and vice versa. It’s not a match like you think it is, it’s a major stretch.

What are you talking about? The point is there are several hunded thousand regional AF player bread baskets that could be made academy zones and for whom and Canberra club would be their closest club.

 

[hampton]

Precisely missed the point

The Dockers werent a club. Port were a massive club. Both joined within 8 years of the first AFL club in those states. That got in earlier and had sufficient gravitas to become decent sized clubs. Port had barely half the crowds in its 15 year that it got in its first.

It is a long haul even when you have the initial conditions right which the Dolphins and any other new RL brisbane clubs certainly dont.

It’s ok dolphins will become a big club, they’re already in the top 6 of nrl crowd averages even though they’re late.

The Suns and Giants are a much longer haul still. But, unlike gestures towards hampton no body thinks they are going to magic into big clubs.

The Dolphins are already more popular in their city than the suns or gws are. The suns and gws are certainly not threatening to be a big club any time soon even though the afl are working overtime to try to make it so.

Haha, no there is not! You're deluded!

Then those numerous sold out crowds in Christchurch must all be Aucklanders that crossed the ditch.

Rugby league as a sport is not as popular as union in Nz for sure but that doesn’t mean league isn’t popular. The Warriors are the most supported rugby club of any code in NZ. Sky nrl tv viewerships are overtaking super rugby.

I’d say that’s popular.

It’s a bit like saying afl isn’t popular in Sydney because rugby league is far more popular. Nrl is way bigger but afl is still popular and has a great well supported club. Just like Christchurch can be for the nrl.

AFL is far more popular in Canberra than RL is in christchurch.

Very debatable. Even if closer to being true, Canberra and western Sydney still haven’t proven they can support another team, they’re both just sharing one limp team that still hasn’t developed a strong fanbase or presence.

haha, the projection!

It is based on the Titans and Dolphins being pissant clubs. Your view is pure fantasy

Titans and dolphins must be successful and massive from day one but it’s ok for gws and suns to be pissants after 15 years in your view.

Titans as a club have been woeful. Gold Coast as a rugby league heartland is stronger than ever.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Being a follower of the game of league I can for sure say that the dolphins have played a big part in the growth of the game in whole. Just have to listen to fans, broadcasters, podcasters, players etc to know that. SEQ is an engine roam of rugby league and adding the dolphins has been equivalent to adding coal into the engine room.

Evidence is vibes. Got it.

Every new club has a halo in the first year with bigger crowds. You’re making it sound like that support is declining which is not a fair argument to make and I’m sure you know that.

It's wrong to measure support by crowd numbers?

As above you’re trying to keep make this same point which no one would agree with you that knows anything about nrl and rugby league that the dolphins are declining in popularity

Per Roy Morgan polling, Dolphins have declined from 232,000 people declaring them as supporting the team in 2023 to 168,000 this year:

Brisbane Broncos overtake the Melbourne Storm to be the most widely supported NRL club in 2024 with 1.3 million supporters - Roy Morgan Research

The latest data from Roy Morgan shows the total NRL supporter base has grown strongly from a year ago to over 7.4 million Australians (33.1%), up 2.4% from a year ago, who now support an NRL team.

www.roymorgan.com

NRL Grand Finalists the Brisbane Broncos and Melbourne Storm are the most widely supported NRL clubs in 2025 - Roy Morgan Research

www.roymorgan.com

So you want to judge dolphins on 3 years

I'm not judging them. Read my post again, nothing that I write is a value assertion or a judgement on Dolphins as a team. Again, something you've invented in your own head.

I'm merely stating the factual basis that their support has declined over three years of their NRL existence, both in crowds and now above I've got further evidence of two years of year-on-year decline of people stating that they support them when polled.

Very slow burn, the wick hasn’t started to burn if anything it’s gone backwards over a ‘short’ 15 year period.

And still not yet into the 20-50 year timeframe.

The AFL wants generational support. Ie support from people that don't know any difference other than the fact that there's always been a GWS team. You don't achieve that in 15 years. If families keep going to GWS games (of which there has been a slow change in GWS attendances, its pre-covid attendance was from the existing Aussie Rules community and entertainment theatre goers to a successful team, post-covid it has recovered its growth with families due to fewer night games, which is far more sustianable).

RU is by far the biggest sport in Nz it’s ok that rugby league isn’t bigger than it

Relevant though if you want enough supporters to be interested enough to hand over money to make a professional team viable, of which it's debatable if there is in a city that's still fewer than 500,000 people.

Nzers have a way more agnostic view of the rugby codes than in Australia, most are happy to follow both and do so

Debatable but whatever. This is not untrue in Canberra, where society there has adjusted to being both RL and AF fans precisely because it's a unique community with an exact 50/50 split. Perhaps the only other place this is true is Carins \

the trend shows that RL is growing at a fast clip and the nrl should take advantage of that to accelerate that growth further

There is absolutely zero evidence that the interest in RL is growing in NZ outside of Auckland, this is a thing you have just said to make up. Can you point to anything proving this other than your belief?

Per google trends data the interest in RL relative to RU was about one-eigth pre-covid and is about one-tenth now.

Much less any growth, it's hardly growing at a "fast clip".

I never said rugby league is as popular as union just that it has a lot of fans

In a city of 500,000 people it's reasonable to state that a minority sport cannot generate the amount of revenue that makes an NRL team viable (average home crowds in the minimum 18,000 range).

it has a lot of fans and is growing rapidly in NZ which it is.

Per above - zero evidence other that your assertion because you want to believe it.

Australian Rules Football is growing "rapidly" in Pakistan. My assertion. As much basis as your Rugby League in Christchurch.

what evidences are there that rugby league and afl are as popular as each other in Canberra? Maybe 40 years ago but not now.

AusPlay results | Clearinghouse | ASC

From July 2023 onwards

www.ausport.gov.au

Participation rates etc. and comparing them outside Canberra (I'm not going to hold your hand).

Numbers of things like Supercoach signups per state as well.

Canberra afl team will attract plenty of fans from the Riverina as ‘their team’ which it won’t.

Firstly, nobody's saying "plenty". Again, something you've just made up so you can argue against a point nobody has made.

Secondly, generational support is a thing. For example, in Ballarat, for historical reasons, people support teams that aren't the Western Bulldogs, but the Western Bulldogs since making it their second home is the most-supported club among children in Ballarat, so they will become the most-supported club in Ballarat over the next generation.

Over time, the Canberra team will be the most supported team and contribute a meaningful (note: I'm not saying plenty) base of support for a theoretical Canberra AFL team, especially when towns and football communities will get behind the club that they can send their players too, which obviously will not happen if and when those towns actually produce an AFL-quality player every once in a while.

 

[hampton]

Evidence is vibes. Got it.

I posted figures as well but you didn’t like that either.

It's wrong to measure support by crowd numbers?

No it’s not but it’s unfair to judge a team after 3 years.

Per Roy Morgan polling, Dolphins have declined from 232,000 people declaring them as supporting the team in 2023 to 168,000 this year:

Brisbane Broncos overtake the Melbourne Storm to be the most widely supported NRL club in 2024 with 1.3 million supporters - Roy Morgan Research

The latest data from Roy Morgan shows the total NRL supporter base has grown strongly from a year ago to over 7.4 million Australians (33.1%), up 2.4% from a year ago, who now support an NRL team.

www.roymorgan.com

NRL Grand Finalists the Brisbane Broncos and Melbourne Storm are the most widely supported NRL clubs in 2025 - Roy Morgan Research

www.roymorgan.com

I'm not judging them. Read my post again, nothing that I write is a value assertion or a judgement on Dolphins as a team. Again, something you've invented in your own head.

You are you are saying again that they are losing popularity whilst ignoring me when I’m saying every new team has a halo effect in crowds in its first year or two.

I'm merely stating the factual basis that their support has declined over three years of their NRL existence, both in crowds and now above I've got further evidence of two years of year-on-year decline of people stating that they support them when polled.

You are like a dog with a bone I think you’ve lost sight of what you’re even arguing here about the dolphins.

How about this if you want numbers:
- dolphins are in the top 6 of average crowds in the nrl

In comparison to the most recent expansion efforts in the afl, who are sitting in last and second last.

And still not yet into the 20-50 year timeframe.

The AFL wants generational support. Ie support from people that don't know any difference other than the fact that there's always been a GWS team. You don't achieve that in 15 years. If families keep going to GWS games (of which there has been a slow change in GWS attendances, its pre-covid attendance was from the existing Aussie Rules community and entertainment theatre goers to a successful team, post-covid it has recovered its growth with families due to fewer night games, which is far more sustianable).

Let’s stick to facts over vibes since that’s your thing. GWS are getting about the same kind of crowds and tv viewers that they did 14 years ago. Not much growth there.

Relevant though if you want enough supporters to be interested enough to hand over money to make a professional team viable, of which it's debatable if there is in a city that's still fewer than 500,000 people.

not sure in any of this that you provided any evidence that there’s not enough fans of the nrl in Christchurch to support a team. Clearly there’s enough fans with multiple bids for a Christchurch nrl team out forward by third party investors and the nrl declaring they are a target. But you must have a different set of exclusive data points that you just haven’t shared with us.

Debatable but whatever. This is not untrue in Canberra, where society there has adjusted to being both RL and AF fans precisely because it's a unique community with an exact 50/50 split. Perhaps the only other place this is true is Carins \

Society in Canberra has adjusted to being both afl and nrl but Christchurch are yet to be able to follow both rugby union and rugby league?

There is absolutely zero evidence that the interest in RL is growing in NZ outside of Auckland, this is a thing you have just said to make up. Can you point to anything proving this other than your belief?

Crowds - Christchurch nrl games sold out.

Per google trends data the interest in RL relative to RU was about one-eigth pre-covid and is about one-tenth now.

Much less any growth, it's hardly growing at a "fast clip".

Sure if ‘google trends’ and your specific use case of it is the one and only truth. You barely have to open your eyes to see that rugby league in New Zealand is growing. Just type in rugby league growth in nz in google search since you’re obsessed with google and read some articles.

In a city of 500,000 people it's reasonable to state that a minority sport cannot generate the amount of revenue that makes an NRL team viable (average home crowds in the minimum 18,000 range).

Again you must have some exclusive access data to show that.

Per above - zero evidence other that your assertion because you want to believe it.

Australian Rules Football is growing "rapidly" in Pakistan. My assertion. As much basis as your Rugby League in Christchurch.

View attachment 2495760

AusPlay results | Clearinghouse | ASC

From July 2023 onwards

www.ausport.gov.au

Participation rates etc. and comparing them outside Canberra (I'm not going to hold your hand).

Numbers of things like Supercoach signups per state as well.

Firstly, nobody's saying "plenty". Again, something you've just made up so you can argue against a point nobody has made.

This guy is seriously making the comparison that afl is growing in Pakistan and rugby league in NZ is going backwards and I’m supposed to be having a meaningful discussion here? I wasting my time.

Despite all this talk of Christchurch and Canberra, I still think the 20th teams for the nrl and afl respectively should be Ipswich and WA3.

 

[Canberra Pear]

If I was the afl I’d be considering that a big risk. We know that Canberra takes the shittier games. They get a few games a year so anything is better than nothing. Still I don’t think it’s a question of Canberra not being able to support a team standalone but more of a question of what would happen to gws in such a scenario they are playing games like gws vs suns and gws vs north Melbourne in western Sydney. The money reliance they get from Canberra is a minor point.

Taking the shit games is a part of them evolving into a full-time club.

But the Giants are growing in Western Sydney - no matter how much you deny it.

They got 10.5k to a Suns game this season. That had previously never cracked 8.3k. They are trending in the right direction, and being a full-time club would speed that up.

Canberra as a secondary market it too strong. If the Giants need a secondary market (which I think they no longer do), they need somewhere weaker that doesn't get higher crowds than them; doesn't cause constant calls for relocation; and importantly, doesn't demand so many games.

The Giants must play more games in Western Sydney, and they can't do that tied to Canberra, we already expect more than the three games we're getting.