Traded #22: Jake Carlisle - Pt.1 - Traded with some other stuff for pick 5, 24 and a Bird (cont in Part 2)

[Fear Boner]

there is one glaring fallacy in your post.

You can't "ensure" the PSD is a safe option because you do not know for certain what the financial situation of the other clubs is.

You also have a hidden assumption that because Carlisle's preference is the Saints that it's the only club he'll consider, and that further he prefers a good financial deal to a much higher chance of playing in a premiership.

They are all assumptions not certainties.

Based on that I think your conclusions are wrong. The power is with St Kilda in that they have a means of achieving their goal. This isn't like a situation like last year where Port wanted Ryder, but didn't actually possess what we wanted for him, meaning we had to settle. No. You have the means, you just don't want to spend it. Which is fine, but then don't go thinking it's up to Carlisle to do your deal for you. That is actually the biggest fallacy in your post. It is NOT up to Carlisle to get your deal done, it is up to YOU.

Saints have stuffed this big time. They thought they could screw EFC by waiting and extorting. When in fact when YOU commit to a player, it is YOUR responsibility to do what you have to to get him. Sure it may not be ideal, but that's tough tittie.

It blows my mind that St Kilda and Carlisle had all these meetings, and St Kilda CLEARLY convinced Jake they would do whatever it took to get him, but then in fact had no intention of doing that, and instead preferred to leave it in the fates of the negotiation gods and just assumed that they had some rubbish power, when is it now proven what a big lie that was. Carlisle would and should be furious it has come to this.

St Kilda have the means to get him! They obviously conveyed to Jake they'd do what was necessary to get him. Then they played games with that trust. Utterly disgusting.

It's not often I would ever say this, but... take a leaf out of Melbourne's book. They committed to Melksham, and because of that commitment the did what they had to to honour that commitment, even if it did mean they paid marginally overs - which your club refuses to do.

I was going to say the same but in the form of a gif

 

[Foxx]

Make it better than 15 and 18 and you're back in the game..pretty simple

Let's be honest here. St Kilda don't have to offer as good a deal as Hawthorns to get him, if Carlisle says his priority is St Kilda.

 

[Strahany]

there is one glaring fallacy in your post.

You can't "ensure" the PSD is a safe option because you do not know for certain what the financial situation of the other clubs is.

You also have a hidden assumption that because Carlisle's preference is the Saints that it's the only club he'll consider, and that further he prefers a good financial deal to a much higher chance of playing in a premiership.

They are all assumptions not certainties.

Based on that I think your conclusions are wrong. The power is with St Kilda in that they have a means of achieving their goal. This isn't like a situation like last year where Port wanted Ryder, but didn't actually possess what we wanted for him, meaning we had to settle. No. You have the means, you just don't want to spend it. Which is fine, but then don't go thinking it's up to Carlisle to do your deal for you. That is actually the biggest fallacy in your post. It is NOT up to Carlisle to get your deal done, it is up to YOU.

Saints have stuffed this big time. They thought they could screw EFC by waiting and extorting. When in fact when YOU commit to a player, it is YOUR responsibility to do what you have to to get him. Sure it may not be ideal, but that's tough tittie.

It blows my mind that St Kilda and Carlisle had all these meetings, and St Kilda CLEARLY convinced Jake they would do whatever it took to get him, but then in fact had no intention of doing that, and instead preferred to leave it in the fates of the negotiation gods and just assumed that they had some rubbish power, when is it now proven what a big lie that was. Carlisle would and should be furious it has come to this.

St Kilda have the means to get him! They obviously conveyed to Jake they'd do what was necessary to get him. Then they played games with that trust. Utterly disgusting.

It's not often I would ever say this, but... take a leaf out of Melbourne's book. They committed to Melksham, and because of that commitment the did what they had to to honour that commitment, even if it did mean they paid marginally overs - which your club refuses to do.

Of course, the Saints cannot definitely guarantee safe passage via the PSD, but given their available cap space, front-loading, and Carlisle's right to refuse medicals with the only 3 preceding clubs (4, if including Essendon) then it would be considerably likely.

Nowhere in my post did i state why Carlisle would like to come to St Kilda. The only thing I asserted was that they are the only club he has publicly confirmed interest in, and further confirmed it through his manager and by contacting St Kilda (see St Kilda's media release yesterday for that).

I agree that the Saints have somewhat slipped up here, in that they clearly sold the club to Carlisle on, what one can assume, the proviso that they guaranteed he would reach there in one way or another. But, ultimately, you have to sell the club to the player first, before any trade negotiations can truly take place, so St Kilda did what they had to, and what any club would. The problem arose when there was an impasse between the evaluation of Carlisle made by each party in the trade, and that St Kilda have a clearly structured plan which cannot be wavered from (whereas the pick 5 swap may have already occurred under previous St Kilda admins).

I suppose you could draw comparisons with promising your child a present on Christmas day. This particular present has sold out, and you are forced to pay several times more than you had expected. Sure, you technically can afford it, but you would have to sacrifice other necessities to get it done. In such a scenario, you made that promise based on an understanding of the price, which, due to extending circumstances, turned out to be an undervaluing expectation. Whether you go ahead and buy that present is up to you, and matter of comparing how you value "holding your promise" to the true cost of the present.
Sure, the Saints *can* afford Carlisle, but just because one can afford something doesn't mean they should pay it.

 

[hurlygurdy]

This thread is moving as lightning fast as ours; I was wondering if you could point out if the information you guys have is similar to (or contradicts) the following:

• St Kilda don't want to give up pick 5 unless a first round pick is coming back
• Essendon are asking for pick 5
• Carlisle's number one, and only "legitimate" preference at this point in time is St Kilda
• Since the Hawthorn offer, Carlisle has entertained their pitch and considered it
• Carlisle doesn't want to risk going interstate in the PSD (Brisbane, GC) hence desperately wants a trade
• Due to the above, Carlisle would settle for Hawthorn if no trade eventuates

If the above is more or less spot on, it seems the true negotiation power is with Carlisle, himself. St Kilda need to convince him to flat out refuse Hawthorn's approaches (perhaps by ensuring that the PSD is a safe option due to front-loading or whatnot), thus opening the PSD option and weakening Essendon's position. Meanwhile, Essendon need Carlisle to publicly commit to Hawthorn as an alternative suitor, so that St Kilda are left in a vice. From either of these scenarios, the fine points of a trade would then be detailed.
Does that seem about right?

I'm not totally on top of how these things occur, but wouldn't it stand to reason that if Carlisle publicly said he was good to go the Hawks, wouldn't it be pretty much a done deal? They have tabled an offer that we have publicly agreed is fair. Time to sign no?
I would have thought that the Saints need to either sit tight and hope that Carlisle says no to the Hawks, or they need to table an acceptable offer for him right now before Carlisle starts to think about playing in grand finals?
To be honest, i usually like to sit back a bit in these moments, but now that the Hawks have demonstrably established a going price for Carlisle, the Saints are really starting to look "off the pace" to put it kindly. To deal "in good faith", they very clearly need to reconsider their position and put forward a realistic offer pronto.

 

[Conor Mckenna]

Let's be honest here. St Kilda don't have to offer as good a deal as Hawthorns to get him, if Carlisle says his priority is St Kilda.

But he hasn't said that..He's happy to go to hawks if a deal can't be made with the saints....Pick 5 or 2 late first rounders or he's of to the Hawks...Would hate to see him there but we've gotta do what's best for us..

 

[Zach Package]

I'm not totally on top of how these things occur, but wouldn't it stand to reason that if Carlisle publicly said he was good to go the Hawks, wouldn't it be pretty much a done deal? They have tabled an offer that we have publicly agreed is fair. Time to sign no?
I would have thought that the Saints need to either sit tight and hope that Carlisle says no to the Hawks, or they need to table an acceptable offer for him right now before Carlisle starts to think about playing in grand finals?
To be honest, i usually like to sit back a bit in these moments, but now that the Hawks have demonstrably established a going price for Carlisle, the Saints are really starting to look "off the pace" to put it kindly. To deal "in good faith", they very clearly need to reconsider their position and put forward a realistic offer pronto.

So what's the plan then? Dick Carlisle around for another week and then either cave or back away?

 

[Dave]

I was going to say the same thing but poorly.

I was going to say **** off.

 

[Strahany]

I'm not totally on top of how these things occur, but wouldn't it stand to reason that if Carlisle publicly said he was good to go the Hawks, wouldn't it be pretty much a done deal? They have tabled an offer that we have publicly agreed is fair. Time to sign no?
I would have thought that the Saints need to either sit tight and hope that Carlisle says no to the Hawks, or they need to table an acceptable offer for him right now before Carlisle starts to think about playing in grand finals?
To be honest, i usually like to sit back a bit in these moments, but now that the Hawks have demonstrably established a going price for Carlisle, the Saints are really starting to look "off the pace" to put it kindly. To deal "in good faith", they very clearly need to reconsider their position and put forward a realistic offer pronto.

Yep, you're spot on. As soon as Carlisle says he is committed to the Hawks as well as St Kilda, then the clock is on the Saints. Dodoro would likely turn to St Kilda and say "you have a day to offer us pick 5 (plus potentially more) or he's gone to Hawthorn". Either that, or the trade to the Hawks would be done on the spot, but I imagine Dodoro would at least pitch that scenario to attempt to get the best possible trade.

So, you're essentially repeating what I said. The Saints can secure Carlisle with pick 5, but don't want to, hence they will be trying their hardest to prevent Carlisle to commit to Hawthorn. Otherwise, game over to the trade, or retaining pick 5.

 

[Jade]

I was going to say the same but in the form of a gif

I say it through interpretive dance.

 

[Jade]

Of course, the Saints cannot definitely guarantee safe passage via the PSD, but given their available cap space, front-loading, and Carlisle's right to refuse medicals with the only 3 preceding clubs (4, if including Essendon) then it would be considerably likely.

You can front load all you like, any other club can match the offer at the average value of the contract.

 

[Albertross]

I don't even think Carlisle does, or even should, give a tin shit whether EFC are compensated fairly. Why would he truly want to weaken his new team and strengthen his old?

No, it's not about that. It's about him believing that if he publicly committed to the Saints that they'd do what was necessary to get him. Not **** around with stupid games when they have the means to get him right there.

I agree that Jake wouldn't give 2 ****s about us being compensated fairly in this trade. I do wonder though if he is possibly a little offended that the Saints don't think his talent is worth a 1st round pick.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

Let's be honest here. St Kilda don't have to offer as good a deal as Hawthorns to get him, if Carlisle says his priority is St Kilda.

Not really when he's opened to going to Hawthorn

 

[Jade]

I agree that Jake wouldn't give 2 ****s about us being compensated fairly in this trade. I do wonder though if he is possibly a little offended that the Saints don't think his talent is worth a 1st round pick.

I think the threat of being tossed into the PSD after being told they'd get it done would be the catalyst for shittiness.

 

[Rack Watts]

What's happened lads? I've been studying all day.

 

[Lance Uppercut]

Of course, the Saints cannot definitely guarantee safe passage via the PSD, but given their available cap space, front-loading, and Carlisle's right to refuse medicals with the only 3 preceding clubs (4, if including Essendon) then it would be considerably likely.

Nowhere in my post did i state why Carlisle would like to come to St Kilda. The only thing I asserted was that they are the only club he has publicly confirmed interest in, and further confirmed it through his manager and by contacting St Kilda (see St Kilda's media release yesterday for that).

I agree that the Saints have somewhat slipped up here, in that they clearly sold the club to Carlisle on, what one can assume, the proviso that they guaranteed he would reach there in one way or another. But, ultimately, you have to sell the club to the player first, before any trade negotiations can truly take place, so St Kilda did what they had to, and what any club would. The problem arose when there was an impasse between the evaluation of Carlisle made by each party in the trade, and that St Kilda have a clearly structured plan which cannot be wavered from (whereas the pick 5 swap may have already occurred under previous St Kilda admins).

I suppose you could draw comparisons with promising your child a present on Christmas day. This particular present has sold out, and you are forced to pay several times more than you had expected. Sure, you technically can afford it, but you would have to sacrifice other necessities to get it done. In such a scenario, you made that promise based on an understanding of the price, which, due to extending circumstances, turned out to be an undervaluing expectation. Whether you go ahead and buy that present is up to you, and matter of comparing how you value "holding your promise" to the true cost of the present.
Sure, the Saints *can* afford Carlisle, but just because one can afford something doesn't mean they should pay it.

what you're saying is that St Kilda promised something they couldn't deliver. It really is that simple. Your club didn't have a plan. That is the fault of only one party.

I mean, what were they thinking? If they made a promise to Jake, but knew the only way they could deliver on that was circumstances outside their control - when they actually have a way that is in their control but no intent to use it, then that is nothing other than extremely shabby

 

[eth-dog]

What's happened lads? I've been studying all day.

Nothing

 

[Rack Watts]

Nothing

Just saw Jed is off to North, does that mean the Hawks deal is over?

 

[Duckworth]

'Fair' is subjective. Dodoro will believe that he is asking for a 'fair' offer, whilst Bains will also believe that he is presenting a 'fair' offer. There is no absolute truth in subjectivity.

Fair is market value. We have that now. Bad luck Saints Dodoro was right

 

[Albertross]

Of course, the Saints cannot definitely guarantee safe passage via the PSD, but given their available cap space, front-loading, and Carlisle's right to refuse medicals with the only 3 preceding clubs (4, if including Essendon) then it would be considerably likely.

Nowhere in my post did i state why Carlisle would like to come to St Kilda. The only thing I asserted was that they are the only club he has publicly confirmed interest in, and further confirmed it through his manager and by contacting St Kilda (see St Kilda's media release yesterday for that).

I agree that the Saints have somewhat slipped up here, in that they clearly sold the club to Carlisle on, what one can assume, the proviso that they guaranteed he would reach there in one way or another. But, ultimately, you have to sell the club to the player first, before any trade negotiations can truly take place, so St Kilda did what they had to, and what any club would. The problem arose when there was an impasse between the evaluation of Carlisle made by each party in the trade, and that St Kilda have a clearly structured plan which cannot be wavered from (whereas the pick 5 swap may have already occurred under previous St Kilda admins).

I suppose you could draw comparisons with promising your child a present on Christmas day. This particular present has sold out, and you are forced to pay several times more than you had expected. Sure, you technically can afford it, but you would have to sacrifice other necessities to get it done. In such a scenario, you made that promise based on an understanding of the price, which, due to extending circumstances, turned out to be an undervaluing expectation. Whether you go ahead and buy that present is up to you, and matter of comparing how you value "holding your promise" to the true cost of the present.
Sure, the Saints *can* afford Carlisle, but just because one can afford something doesn't mean they should pay it.

The Saints have known what their Christmas present was going to cost them for some time though, the price hasn't changed, but their gift will soon sell out. Time to get out and buy that present before you neighbour does and your kid thinks you're an arseh*le.

 

[Lance Uppercut]

I agree that Jake wouldn't give 2 ****s about us being compensated fairly in this trade. I do wonder though if he is possibly a little offended that the Saints don't think his talent is worth a 1st round pick.

I doubt he'd care about that either. I'm certain the only thing he'd care about is he made a public commitment and is now left with his dick in his hands and a embarrassed look on his face. To commit to someone then go "you know what, actually, **** it, we're not going to do what we need to now, even though we can, we're just not going to, go EAD" is just nasty

 

[Howard Moon]

The other point is stk havebt made what you can call a fair deal, according to reports they have not even put any deal on the table.

 

[eth-dog]

Just saw Jed is off to North, does that mean the Hawks deal is over?

No, they have 15 and 18 still. Hawks deal is in play.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Of course, the Saints cannot definitely guarantee safe passage via the PSD, but given their available cap space, front-loading, and Carlisle's right to refuse medicals with the only 3 preceding clubs (4, if including Essendon) then it would be considerably likely.

Nowhere in my post did i state why Carlisle would like to come to St Kilda. The only thing I asserted was that they are the only club he has publicly confirmed interest in, and further confirmed it through his manager and by contacting St Kilda (see St Kilda's media release yesterday for that).

I agree that the Saints have somewhat slipped up here, in that they clearly sold the club to Carlisle on, what one can assume, the proviso that they guaranteed he would reach there in one way or another. But, ultimately, you have to sell the club to the player first, before any trade negotiations can truly take place, so St Kilda did what they had to, and what any club would. The problem arose when there was an impasse between the evaluation of Carlisle made by each party in the trade, and that St Kilda have a clearly structured plan which cannot be wavered from (whereas the pick 5 swap may have already occurred under previous St Kilda admins).

I suppose you could draw comparisons with promising your child a present on Christmas day. This particular present has sold out, and you are forced to pay several times more than you had expected. Sure, you technically can afford it, but you would have to sacrifice other necessities to get it done. In such a scenario, you made that promise based on an understanding of the price, which, due to extending circumstances, turned out to be an undervaluing expectation. Whether you go ahead and buy that present is up to you, and matter of comparing how you value "holding your promise" to the true cost of the present.
Sure, the Saints *can* afford Carlisle, but just because one can afford something doesn't mean they should pay it.

The Saints just need to make an offer. They still haven't.

And a reasonable offer, in that it needs to include a first round pick to even be worthy of discussion. Hawks have already put two first rounders on the table. I think if anybody ever thought they could land Carlisle without a first round pick, then they were very naive, at best.

Once that happens I reckon things will start moving as they'll start to negotiate.

 

[Stopher]

Just saw Jed is off to North, does that mean the Hawks deal is over?

I'd think it's more likely if anything as there are fewer parties to agree now. Hawthorn will give up 15 and 18 for Jake, but to their credit, haven't left Jed hanging due to St Kilda's bumbling about.

 

[tesla1962]

The Saints have known what their Christmas present was going to cost them for some time though, the price hasn't changed, but their gift will soon sell out. Time to get out and buy that present before you neighbour does and your kid thinks you're an arseh*le.

often children will still love their parents despite what their parents do

if you want further proof of this then wander over to the saints board and laugh at the suggested 'fair' trades, Dodoro being labelled as the antichrist and the current situation being everyone's (mainly the drug cheats) fault bar St Kilda