OK, I brought this up last year and I'm bringing it up again now.
Since the final 8 was introduced in 1994, the average number of teams to drop out of the eight from one season to the next is 3. Four finalists from 2001 didn't make the finals in 2002 (Richmond, Carlton, Hawthorn, Sydney) and four came in (Collingwood, Melbourne, Kangaroos, Eagles). That happened from 2000 to 2001 as well.
And yet every year, the vast majority of predictions for the final 8 have only one, or at most two, teams dropping out.
So, what I want to know is: given the likelihood (historically) that three or four teams from the 2002 finals won't be there in 2003, who do you think they will be? And which teams will replace them?
Let's say, three likely drop-outs and one possible.
No "this year it won't happen, because the best eight teams are settled" (I heard that last year). No "how dare you put my team in, I'll bring this post up in September" (after all, it's just a prediction). Just give it a bash. Here's mine:
Out: Melbourne, Kangas and Essendon. Adelaide maybe. (Lord knows why, same bad hunch as last year I suppose).
In: Hawthorn, Bulldogs and Fremantle. St Kilda might.
(Last year I had Richmond, Carlton and Adelaide to drop, and Hawthorn as my possible, which isn't too bad. Can't recall who I thought would come in. I also had Sydney as a Grand Finallist, which is a bit embarrassing)
Since the final 8 was introduced in 1994, the average number of teams to drop out of the eight from one season to the next is 3. Four finalists from 2001 didn't make the finals in 2002 (Richmond, Carlton, Hawthorn, Sydney) and four came in (Collingwood, Melbourne, Kangaroos, Eagles). That happened from 2000 to 2001 as well.
And yet every year, the vast majority of predictions for the final 8 have only one, or at most two, teams dropping out.
So, what I want to know is: given the likelihood (historically) that three or four teams from the 2002 finals won't be there in 2003, who do you think they will be? And which teams will replace them?
Let's say, three likely drop-outs and one possible.
No "this year it won't happen, because the best eight teams are settled" (I heard that last year). No "how dare you put my team in, I'll bring this post up in September" (after all, it's just a prediction). Just give it a bash. Here's mine:
Out: Melbourne, Kangas and Essendon. Adelaide maybe. (Lord knows why, same bad hunch as last year I suppose).
In: Hawthorn, Bulldogs and Fremantle. St Kilda might.
(Last year I had Richmond, Carlton and Adelaide to drop, and Hawthorn as my possible, which isn't too bad. Can't recall who I thought would come in. I also had Sydney as a Grand Finallist, which is a bit embarrassing)
