A Highly Unhelpful Mock Draft

[HedgeFund]

Always enjoy your posts on other threads so was looking forward to this. Terrific effort hedge, very impressive. Some real food for thought.

One thing stands out - you have not coloured your draft with your support for the Hawks. Often I see strong draftees being dropped down the order to land at the club the drafter supports.

Our drafting recently has been odd to say the least. Frankly it seems that we have essentially spurned the under 18s in deference to trading in mature players to fill immediate needs.

As several here have said before, it’s an absolute lottery after about pick 30. Hawks don’t have a pick until 43. Whilst no doubt there will be players available there who end up playing solid careers and perhaps become elite, picking which ones Hawthorn will seek to land is problematic. All four are from Melbourne/Victoria. Stoddart is in the Box Hill zone, Wellings and Brayshaw are already mature (19yo) and are/were TAC club captains. Amartey is a developing ruckman (which we need) and could be anything with more intensive coaching. I like them all.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Our drafting recently has been odd to say the least. Frankly it seems that we have essentially spurned the under 18s in deference to trading in mature players to fill immediate needs.

As several here have said before, it’s an absolute lottery after about pick 30. Hawks don’t have a pick until 43. Whilst no doubt there will be players available there who end up playing solid careers and perhaps become elite, picking which ones Hawthorn will seek to land is problematic. All four are from Melbourne/Victoria. Stoddart is in the Box Hill zone, Wellings and Brayshaw are already mature (19yo) and are/were TAC club captains. Amartey is a developing ruckman (which we need) and could be anything with more intensive coaching. I like them all.

Amartey's only 195 isn't he? Bit undersized for a ruckman. Shown talent up forward though, pushing high up the group to take marks. I'm hoping we can get him in the rookie draft.

 

[HedgeFund]

Amartey's only 195 isn't he? Bit undersized for a ruckman. Shown talent up forward though, pushing high up the group to take marks. I'm hoping we can get him in the rookie draft.

Yeah - he might be nudging 196ish, which is a good 5-10cm short of most AFL types, but that doesn’t mean he has stopped growing and in any event his leap is pretty handy.

I agree he could develop into a really good mobile key forward who can pinch hit ruck as a serviceable 2nd string. Deep down, he probably misses out on the ND and gets picked up as a rookie, but as another one of those who has been more into basketball than footy, if he goes full time and a club is willing to invest 2-3 years, he should become a “moneyball” type.

FWIW - he just won the Dragons Most Improved player award last night and also tied with Andy Brayshaw for Player of the Finals. So he has done really well in his first season of serious football.

 

[chels]

Slightly off topic Hedge. How many years with an afl club should it take before real talent (or lack of it) is apparent. Presumably rookies take longer? In particular, I thought Kade Stewart came on really quickly last year but regressed (at the afl level) this year. If the club asks for new skills / change of position does a kid get more time?

 

[HedgeFund]

Slightly off topic Hedge. How many years with an afl club should it take before real talent (or lack of it) is apparent. Presumably rookies take longer? In particular, I thought Kade Stewart came on really quickly last year but regressed (at the afl level) this year. If the club asks for new skills / change of position does a kid get more time?

Can’t recall if it was Leigh Matthews or perhaps Malcolm Blight who I first heard this from:

“If you’re 5 foot 8, you’ve got 5 minutes to show me you can play. If you’re 6 foot 6, you’ve got 5 years to show me you can’t play”.

That’s obviously a generalisation but one of the reasons clubs use the rookie List for tall “project players” is that they feel there’s a big gap between where the kid is at when rookied, and where they need to get to in order to play AFL, BUT they’re optimistic that if/when it can be narrowed, they’ll get a better long term player than someone who has a “lower ceiling“.

No doubt if a club drafts/rookies a player with the intention of him playing a particular role, or two (eg. forward crumber with defensive attributes) and coaches him accordingly and THEN changes its view after a year or two, it’s only fair to give that player time to adjust. A bit like being re-drafted.

History suggests the most successful Long term rookie listers (eg. M. Boys, Priddis, Maxwell, Kirk, Jack, Sewell) are the smalls/mids who don’t get senior listed but bust their arse in the AFL environment and earn promotion on merit rather than potential.

As for Kade Stewart - I’m not really sure why he regressed but hopefully he gets to continue on in 2018

 

[Langers is Life]

I'd be wrapped with Coffield, McCartin, McClean and Brown. I know you're a massive fan of Brayshaw but can't see Freo going for midfielders with both their first 2 picks, think most likely Brander or Naughton at 5

 

[Scham]

Just had a look at Bailey Hendersons highlight package and he looks good. Too good for a pick so late and most don't have him getting drafted. What are the knocks on him Hedge?

 

[Scham]

Won the Haileybury B&F in 2016 as a year 11, in a side with Scrimshaw, Battle, LDU, etc. Was their Captain of both Sport and their 1st XVIII in an undefeated 2017 season.

Missed 6 weeks in the middle of the year with a quad but still recovered to play midfield in two Metro games and didn’t miss a beat, despite being underdone. Second half of the year with Dragons was probably the best player in the TAC competition. Named captain of one of the All-Star sides.

If he hasn’t missed 6 weeks in the middle of the year (including the lead-up to and first three weeks of the U18 Champs), no-one would be questioning this.

As for him as a player, well he chases and tackles more than any of the others (defensive mindset is excellent), is as hard at the contest as any of them. Kicks goals and sets goals up with exceptional ball use. Is the best of the lot for elite endurance (both 2k and Yo-Yo).

If you read the highly respected Knightmare’s rundown, the only knock on he has on Andy is he has “no identifiable second position”. Basically, he has no weaknesses. So as a coach, you don’t have to address anything to get him up to AFL level.

Surely we can get him at 5 though? Who would you see as the most different type to AB in your top 5?

 

[LemmingMaster]

I'd be slightly more interested in your rough player rankings more so than your mock draft.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Surely we can get him at 5 though? Who would you see as the most different type to AB in your top 5?

There are plenty of reports of Brisbane keen on using pick 1 on him, so getting to pick 5 would be lovely.

 

[HedgeFund]

There are plenty of reports of Brisbane keen on using pick 1 on him, so getting to pick 5 would be lovely.

^^^^^^
This.

No point me giving anyone “power ranking” as its irrelevant.

I’m only concerned with pick, club, player. What happens after 24/11 is up to the player and his coaches.

 

[Bishop]

Hi Hedge,

What can you tell me about Richmond's Pick 92?

Is he a good ball user?

 

[triggering bro]

HedgeFund freo taking Brayshaw at 2 would strengthen the chance they take Naughton at 5? Or do you see them investing heavily in the midfield?

I must admit I’ve seen very little of Murphy. What’s his strengths/weaknesses & which current player/s do you compare his style to?

 

[HedgeFund]

HedgeFund freo taking Brayshaw at 2 would strengthen the chance they take Naughton at 5? Or do you see them investing heavily in the midfield?

I must admit I’ve seen very little of Murphy. What’s his strengths/weaknesses & which current player/s do you compare his style to?

If what the Freo fans are barking on about is true, they’re well stocked for key talls (at least defensively). So I wouldn’t be surprised if they take 2 midfielders with their high picks.

Murphy plays like Corey Enright did with Geelong. Good at rolling off, but not loose and can shut down an opponent. When the ball hits the deck he has good agility and closing speed. Super honest and hates getting beaten.

Invariably kicks long though, so an RFI would be working on lowering his eyes a bit and hitting shorter targets where appropriate.

 

[triggering bro]

If what the Freo fans are barking on about is true, they’re well stocked for key talls (at least defensively). So I wouldn’t be surprised if they take 2 midfielders with their high picks.

Murphy plays like Corey Enright did with Geelong. Good at rolling off, but not loose and can shut down an opponent. When the ball hits the deck he has good agility and closing speed. Super honest and hates getting beaten.

Invariably kicks long though, so an RFI would be working on lowering his eyes a bit and hitting shorter targets where appropriate.

If Murphy is a small-medium defender then I doubt we pick him. One of his teammates that you have going at 2 we are rumoured to like though (if he lasts).

 

[eDPS]

Won the Haileybury B&F in 2016 as a year 11, in a side with Scrimshaw, Battle, LDU, etc. Was their Captain of both Sport and their 1st XVIII in an undefeated 2017 season.

Missed 6 weeks in the middle of the year with a quad but still recovered to play midfield in two Metro games and didn’t miss a beat, despite being underdone. Second half of the year with Dragons was probably the best player in the TAC competition. Named captain of one of the All-Star sides.

If he hasn’t missed 6 weeks in the middle of the year (including the lead-up to and first three weeks of the U18 Champs), no-one would be questioning this.

As for him as a player, well he chases and tackles more than any of the others (defensive mindset is excellent), is as hard at the contest as any of them. Kicks goals and sets goals up with exceptional ball use. Is the best of the lot for elite endurance (both 2k and Yo-Yo).

If you read the highly respected Knightmare’s rundown, the only knock on he has on Andy is he has “no identifiable second position”. Basically, he has no weaknesses. So as a coach, you don’t have to address anything to get him up to AFL level.

First time I saw him this year was a practise match against Oakleigh, he started in defence and just looked classy as hell back there, 2nd half he pushed up the ground more and kicked 2 goals. For me he could easily slot in an AFL team next at HB or HF and have an impact.

 

[HedgeFund]

Surprised at one particular slider in round 5. I've got Your Mum earmarked for #69

Your Mum will slide.....believe me

 

[PrinceofSeaford]

are you confident of the chances that Brayshaw goes top 4?
Would love one of Stephenson and Cerra to slide to the saints picks... Even better if freo and Collingwood go tall so we could get both but I doubt it

 

[Sin City]

Your Mum will slide.....believe me

She's going down at this moment.

 

[HedgeFund]

are you confident of the chances that Brayshaw goes top 4?
Would love one of Stephenson and Cerra to slide to the saints picks... Even better if freo and Collingwood go tall so we could get both but I doubt it

Very confident.

I still think Cerra will go before Stephenson, even though Jayden is probably more eye-catching.

 

[D2D3]

Why would St Kilda take a dedicated half back flanker at 8 when we are already heavily stocked in that area? Makes no sense

 

[HedgeFund]

Why would St Kilda take a dedicated half back flanker at 8 when we are already heavily stocked in that area? Makes no sense

He can play both ends. Who said he was a dedicated back flanker? I said he played like Corey Enright, but that doesn’t mean he’s purely a defender.

Kicked 7 for Brighton Grammar this year against Caulfield and 3.2 for Dragons in a half against Bendigo.

At the National Combine he was classified as a “medium forward”.

Most interestingly when he went down in a screaming heap with an ankle early in the elimination final against Murray, the St Kilda recruiters went white like a sheet and ran down to the rooms to check on him and tell him not to get too upset that his season appeared to be over.

You can draw your own conclusions if you wish.

 

[coryne]

You nailed Pick 89.

That said everyone has nailed pick 89 ............

 

[Stars align]

He can play both ends. Who said he was a dedicated back flanker? I said he played like Corey Enright, but that doesn’t mean he’s purely a defender.

Kicked 7 for Brighton Grammar this year against Caulfield and 3.2 for Dragons in a half against Bendigo.

At the National Combine he was classified as a “medium forward”.

Most interestingly when he went down in a screaming heap with an ankle early in the elimination final against Murray, the St Kilda recruiters went white like a sheet and ran down to the rooms to check on him and tell him not to get too upset that his season appeared to be over.

You can draw your own conclusions if you wish.

Hey Hedge yours is the second phantom I have seen with Dixon at mid twenties . club whispers or a genuine belief this is where he rates in this draft

Also cant see him going to Bulldogs now with sache joining boyd cloke and roughhead

 

[HedgeFund]

Hey Hedge yours is the second phantom I have seen with Dixon at mid twenties . club whispers or a genuine belief this is where he rates in this draft

Also cant see him going to Bulldogs now with sache joining boyd cloke and roughhead

Cloke just retired.

Roughead isn’t much of an AFL KPP, more of a ruckman who fills a gap. After Boyd and Schache, who are both (with respect) less than 100% resilient, they haven’t got much more. Dixon fits IMO and I rate him higher than others as one who can develop pretty swiftly.