Expansion A third team in Queensland? AFL acknowledges QLD3 as a 20th licence option

[GC2015]

Perth is actually set to go past Brisbane in terms of population anyway so why would you target 3 teams in Qld over WA first?

As has been pointed out before, there's more to it than purely looking at population. If it was just a population decision then a third team in Sydney would trump all other bids. For Brisbane specifically, I think being based on the east coast helps in terms minimising travelling for the majority of the league and also the preferences of broadcasters.

 

[Purple Suit]

As has been pointed out before, there's more to it than purely looking at population. If it was just a population decision then a third team in Sydney would trump all other bids. For Brisbane specifically, I think being based on the east coast helps in terms minimising travelling for the majority of the league and also the preferences of broadcasters.

It is about Population, but you need to look at the population through a filter.

NSW is a Rugby State so you get less engagement from the general population. Maybe 10% of the population compared to 75% of the population in Vic, SA or WA. Canberra might be 40-50%, Qld 15%. I'm obviously making up numbers but you get the point.

So you want to further minimize travel for the east coast now. Give me a spell.

 

[GC2015]

It is about Population, but you need to look at the population through a filter.

NSW is a Rugby State so you get less engagement from the general population. Maybe 10% of the population compared to 75% of the population in Vic, SA or WA. Canberra might be 40-50%, Qld 15%. I'm obviously making up numbers but you get the point.

You could actually use that as a reason to not explore WA as the 20th team. If both cities have near identical populations and Perth is already 75% won over while Brisbane only has a 15% market penetration, then that's a great reason to put more effort into Brisbane going forward because it holds the most potential for growth.

So you want to further minimize travel for the east coast now. Give me a spell.

It's not minimising travel. It's keep it where it currently is with West Coast and Fremantle being the only teams in WA. Don't forget, Queensland teams travel the second most of all teams in the AFL so I can appreciate your concern in this regard and a third team based in Queensland would mean more travel for most Vic teams that travel less than half the Queensland teams and about a third of the WA teams. So it would serve a similar purpose in terms of forcing Vic teams to travel more.

 

[Purple Suit]

You could actually use that as a reason to not explore WA as the 20th team. If both cities have near identical populations and Perth is already 75% won over while Brisbane only has a 15% market penetration, then that's a great reason to put more effort into Brisbane going forward because it holds the most potential for growth.

Using my made up numbers

Perth is 2.2m people @ 75% =1.65m who care about the AFL and will spend money. Lets say it translates into 1m for WC and 650K for Freo. With a 60K stadium, it is sold out every 2nd week and getting close to in some Freo games. As the population grows, you need to cater for these people who are missing out. You get very little money out of the excess supporters who cannot attend, this is like losing a repeat customer. Money for Jam.

Brisbane is 2.6m people @ 15% = 390K fans for Brisbane who care about the AFL and will spend money. That might actually be close considering the attendance and profit difference between the three teams. To generate that sort of interest has been nearly 40 years in the making and a bigger stadium in Brisbane will open up the ceiling of the Lions. No need to add another team that will struggle and fight for the new punters. This is the hardest job, turning someone into a paying fan who was not previously.

As populations grow, the numbers will keep stacking up for WA3 due to the percentages involved.

It's not minimising travel. It's keep it where it currently is with West Coast and Fremantle being the only teams in WA. Don't forget, Queensland teams travel the second most of all teams in the AFL so I can appreciate your concern in this regard and a third team based in Queensland would mean more travel for most Vic teams that travel less than half the Queensland teams and about a third of the WA teams. So it would serve a similar purpose in terms of forcing Vic teams to travel more.

Qld teams still travel about half the distance as WA teams. Travel is only a reason for WA3 to exist.

We already have 2 teams that need to be propped up indefinately in GC & GWS. No need to add a third team in QLD3, WA3 would generate money and they would be mid table on the financial list within 5-10 years.

 

[Supercoach Bargain]

Flip the script.

When asked if there should be Qld3 and the answer was

No way
Get f@cked
F@ck off

He’d get flogged for it


Storm in a small teacup. Professional lawyer having an each way bet.

 

[Atomboy]

I doubt it, the 20th team should be a Canberra or Northern Territory team.

 

[Bjo187]

Brisbane 2 is a good idea, that North Brisbane area up to the sunshine coast is building an Australian football culture and they're into the schools up there, the game is booming. It's more high risk, high reward than both Perth 3 and Canberra and may be a little early, but it's definitely an option at some stage.

Also when bringing in clubs in rugby states, I prefer to use relocations to give them that initial base support. I'd love to see North move to Canberra or north Brisbane, then it opens up the option of another club for team 20.

Order of preference for mine:
Canberra
Perth 3
Brisbane 2
Northern Australia

The order may change in the next 5 year's or so if footy keeps growing quickly in QLD though and Brisbane 2 may in fact jump to the top of the list by 2030.

 

[Canberra Pear]

20% of the population of Perth will be greater than Canberra

Perth's population = 2.4m/5 = 480k
Canberra-Queanbeyan = ~515k (and doesn't include another ~80k also within about an hour of Manuka)

Not sure if you meant future tense instead, but between 2025-66, the ABS has WA growing 34% and the ACT growing 49.9%. Perth will be less than four times the size of Greater Canberra by then.

Perth is actually set to go past Brisbane in terms of population anyway so why would you target 3 teams in Qld over WA first?

This "fact" is so pervasive, but I don't think it's right. There were a bunch of articles stating it around 2013, and the assumption has just stuck.

The above ABS projections have Queensland growing 39% to WA's 34%.

ABC reported in late 2023 that by 2066, Brisbane will reach 4.34m, while Perth will reach 3m. That more or less matches the references ABS projections that have Perth about 3.1m. The latest projections actually have the gap between Brisbane and Perth growing.

It's also misleading competing Brisbane v Perth populations, when it's to have three teams in Southeast Queensland. Throw in the Sunshine and Gold Coasts, and SEQ will have ~6m to Perth's 3.1m. Pretty much double.

 

[GC2015]

Using my made up numbers

Perth is 2.2m people @ 75% =1.65m who care about the AFL and will spend money. Lets say it translates into 1m for WC and 650K for Freo. With a 60K stadium, it is sold out every 2nd week and getting close to in some Freo games. As the population grows, you need to cater for these people who are missing out. You get very little money out of the excess supporters who cannot attend, this is like losing a repeat customer. Money for Jam.

Brisbane is 2.6m people @ 15% = 390K fans for Brisbane who care about the AFL and will spend money. That might actually be close considering the attendance and profit difference between the three teams. To generate that sort of interest has been nearly 40 years in the making and a bigger stadium in Brisbane will open up the ceiling of the Lions. No need to add another team that will struggle and fight for the new punters. This is the hardest job, turning someone into a paying fan who was not previously.

As populations grow, the numbers will keep stacking up for WA3 due to the percentages involved.

Sorry mate. I'm not going to comment on population estimations anymore. There's people in this thread ready to turn those kinds of discussions into lengthy, arduous back and forths. Although I can appreciate the point you're trying to make about supply and demand within the Perth and Brisbane markets.

Qld teams still travel about half the distance as WA teams. Travel is only a reason for WA3 to exist.

We already have 2 teams that need to be propped up indefinately in GC & GWS. No need to add a third team in QLD3, WA3 would generate money and they would be mid table on the financial list within 5-10 years.

Not quite. The travel time for Queensland clubs is misunderstood and rarely reported on. Here is the flight time for each AFL team during the 2025 season:

Team	Flights (return)	Time in air
Fremantle Dockers	10	80 hr, 25 min
West Coast Eagles	10	77 hr, 5 min
Gold Coast Suns	12	63 hr, 30 min
Brisbane Lions	11	56hr, 0 min
Sydney Swans	11	48hr, 5 min
GWS Giants	11	42hr, 0 min
Hawthorn Hawks	10	38hr, 30 min
Adelaide Crows	10	38 hr, 25 min
St Kilda Saints	7	38 hr, 0 min
Melbourne Demons	7	36hr, 10 min
Port Adelaide Power	10	35hr, 45 min
Essendon Bombers	6	30hr, 20 min
North Melbourne Kangaroos	9	28hr, 45 min
Carlton Blues	6	26hr, 40 min
Collingwood Magpies	6	25hr, 10 min
Geelong Cats	6	23hr, 40 min
Richmond Tigers	6	23hr, 20 min
Western Bulldogs	6	19hr, 10min

 

[Canberra Pear]

Sorry mate. I'm not going to comment on population estimations anymore. There's people in this thread ready to turn those kinds of discussions into lengthy, arduous back and forths

My bad. Just defending Canberra's honour.

 

[Freomaniac]

*cough Canberra *cough

I agree. Every Aussie rules fan hears about Tassie people complaining about not having a team in the big league.

Canberra already has a stadium

 

[Colonial]

I agree. Every Aussie rules fan hears about Tassie people complaining about not having a team in the big league.

Canberra already has a stadium

Technically Western Sydney doesn’t have a team. We are part time up here.
That won’t win over the locals.

 

[Roylion]

Time to move them both interstate where they can build a new future.

How's that going to happen?

 

[strand_victor]

How's that going to happen?

North can Relocate and become North Brisbane. They can Play in the New Stadium once it's Built and get Big Crowds.

 

[Coolangatta]

I could actually see the AFL willing to prop up Brisbane 2 for 20 years to be a club that draws good crowds by the 2050s.

Would suck for Canberra to miss out, though.

If they wait, Brisbane 2 won’t need much help to get going.

Same thing as Perth 3/South West WA if they wait, but Auckland or Newcastle could be more enticing options than them in 25 years.

I, too, like the idea of the major cities having a two team rivalry.

 

[sabso]

North can Relocate and become North Brisbane. They can Play in the New Stadium once it's Built and get Big Crowds.

North have refused to relocate to save themselves, since then they’ve tried to partially relocate but nowhere else wants them. It’s a matter of time before wa tells them to piss off as well

 

[greatwhiteshark]

The AFL have to be on drugs to even have a conversation about this. There is only two states a third club can happen and that’s WA and SA . Real football states and both states can handle a third and probably a fourth AFl club.
Brisbane and Sydney need one each so they are already over represented.

 

[MSB ROYS]

A second team for Brisbane is ridiculous. Time to mobilise the NIMBYs.

 

[glengowan]

Keep and extend the use of the Gold Coast Suns as a team also for the NT with a few home games in Darwin.

Do the same for Southport but for North Queensland. Coral Sea Sharks - based in Southport - with a few home games in Cairns/Townsville.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Keep and extend the use of the Gold Coast Suns as a team also for the NT with a few home games in Darwin.

Do the same for Southport but for North Queensland. Coral Sea Sharks - based in Southport - with a few home games in Cairns/Townsville.

So two clubs that half-arse their commitment to the Gold Coast?

Southport's time has passed. No reason to shoehorn them in.

 

[sabso]

Gold Coast could have had the kangas too but someone put a stop to it for whatever reason.

God knows Melbourne doesn’t need north.

 

[Chunky Steak]

Have you actually been to Canberra?

First of all, visitors are not a primary reason to base a team anywhere.

But Canberra is awesome. It's got something for everyone. So many national institutions to visit for free; Questacon; great outdoors, hiking and cycling activities; 40-plus wineries; breweries; great restaurants and bars just next to Manuka.

If you're bored visiting Canberra, you're just a boring person.

Amen brother. Canberra isn't for everyone, but where is?

Might as well list some of the other attractions that draw people to Canberra, because why not?

- The National Museum of Australia which had 600,000 visitors to its site on 2022-2023 FY and over 8 million total engagements.

- Floriade which was attended by 470,000 people in 2024.

- National Multicultural Festival which was attended by 417,000 people in 2024.

- Enlighten festival with over 300,000 attendees in 2024.

- The National Gallery of Australia which had over half a million visitors in 2022-2023 FY.

There's also the Brumbies, the Raiders, Summernats, the Canberra Balloon Spectacular, National Portrait Gallery, Parliament House, Old Parliament House and the Museum of Australian Democracy, the Australian War Memorial (a must for every Australian), the National Botanic Gardens, the National Arboretum, National Zoo and Aquarium, the National Dinosaur Museum, the AIS and a bunch of others.

And as others have pointed out, tourism is ultimately a side issue and has little to do with whether or not a footy club would thrive in the Canberra region. Canberra is full of ex pats from footy states. It has the country's highest median income and more than 1 in 10 Canberrans earns more than $3,000 per week. So Canberrans have money to spend. Canberra has a highly developed airport, all the infrastructure in place to support influxes of interstate supporters coming in for games, is conveniently located between Melbourne and Sydney. Manuka's new eastern stand will take capacity to 20k which is a sustainable starting point.

If it's a national competition, put a team in the nation's capital.

 

[Leeda]

Flip the script.

When asked if there should be Qld3 and the answer was

No way
Get f@cked
F@ck off

He’d get flogged for it


Storm in a small teacup. Professional lawyer having an each way bet.

We need mulch on our garden

 

[lizard man]

What about a second Tasmanian team …. I think a domestic rivalry is exactly what’s needed to kick start an afl frenzy down there

 

[Cmarsh]

What about a second Tasmanian team …. I think a domestic rivalry is exactly what’s needed to kick start an afl frenzy down there

Hawthorn vs North?