A Third Team In Sydney - It's Only a Matter Of Time !!

Tasmanian saint

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I don't think you know what "over the very long term" means.

GWS should be reviewed after 30 years of existence. If support is strong (20k average) and NSW continues to produce more players, then this sets the 3rd team in motion. If not, more time is obviously required so any plans should be delayed further. These requirements are then taken again before a 4th team is relevant.

This is what is meant by generational - when kids who have grown up with the Giants being a thing all their lives have their own children.

I don't know any possible location mentioned, including those I said were unreasonable, that could possibly eat into the Suns support area. Just for your reference, the North Shore is Sydney north of the harbour/river, and the Central Coast is around Gosford (an hour or so north of Sydney). Newcastle is something like 8 hours drive to the Gold Coast, and it is the closest of all the areas mentioned. I also mentioned that all those regional locations make little sense, as they would struggle as much as the Giants did, but they wouldn't have the potential upside that the Giants do. Additionally, only the Central Coast region feeds into the Sydney metro TV numbers, meaning none of the others would offer the broadcast rights upside that the Giants do.
That’s the point mate we’re talking very long term 30 -50 years
 

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abcde12345

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That’s the point mate we’re talking very long term 30 -50 years
That might be what you are saying. That is not what I said.

30 years would be the minimum time frame after GWS for the 3rd team. It depends on the fundamentals - how well entrenched the Giants have become from a supporter base perspective (20k average figures would be acceptable), and from a junior grassroots base (continued growth in participation, and more AFL level players being produced from the Sydney region). I would argue that both these metrics are on track at this point, but there is still a long way to go.

Sydney 3 would need that much more time AGAIN at least, before Sydney 4 would be reasonable, unless something drastic changes in the AR landscape in Sydney. It all depends on the fundamentals.

I think you should slow down and properly read the things you are replying to.
 

Tasmanian saint

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That might be what you are saying. That is not what I said.

30 years would be the minimum time frame after GWS for the 3rd team. It depends on the fundamentals - how well entrenched the Giants have become from a supporter base perspective (20k average figures would be acceptable), and from a junior grassroots base (continued growth in participation, and more AFL level players being produced from the Sydney region). I would argue that both these metrics are on track at this point, but there is still a long way to go.

Sydney 3 would need that much more time AGAIN at least, before Sydney 4 would be reasonable, unless something drastic changes in the AR landscape in Sydney. It all depends on the fundamentals.

I think you should slow down and properly read the things you are replying to.
I fully read your post like I said were looking a lot of years down the track mate no one can predict the future maybe if gws win on the wknd it will rapidly speed things up for them support wise and totally change the landscape in nsw a lot sooner but there’s a lot of different factors that go into creating and supporting a afl club just basing it on population figures for an area is irresponsible should never be the sole reason for creating a club !
 

abcde12345

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I fully read your post like I said were looking a lot of years down the track mate no one can predict the future maybe if gws win on the wknd it will rapidly speed things up for them support wise and totally change the landscape in nsw a lot sooner but there’s a lot of different factors that go into creating and supporting a afl club just basing it on population figures for an area is irresponsible should never be the sole reason for creating a club !
True, hence why there were a number of factors I discussed for each potential team in the original post you replied to. I don't see where you're getting the impression that I only looked at population from if you did read the post properly.
 

Established1870

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There are a few regions outside the metro that have been mentioned, including Central Coast, Illawarra and Newcastle. Again, I struggle to see it. These regions would have the difficulty of a Giants bid, but without the TV money upside (regional areas). Areas that don't benefit from the TV money and massive population growth upsides should be built from the ground up, similar to that of the Tasmania bid.
Seeing the Mariners struggle like they do in the A-League is enough for me to think that Central Coast will never have an AFL side in my life time but as a long-time supporter of further NSW/QLD expansion, I would argue that Illawarra/Wollongong and Newcastle make a lot more sense for a 3rd and 4th AFL team in NSW then just putting more teams in Sydney itself. Both areas already have strong population growth from what I've read and are more economically viable then Tasmania with the bonus of being in NSW and close to Sydney. Newcastle in particular has a strong footy league and it's steadily growing and Illawarra having a league at all is vast progress. I know both areas would need lots of ground work but by 2035-2040, GWS and the Suns should be fully embedded into the league which would give the AFL ample amounts of time to set things up. I also agree somewhat with your point regarding Canberra but in 20 years time, the ACT should have its own side. They should have had a side 20 years ago.

You're more informed regarding these areas but I was just watching those videos regarding the NRL possibly culling a Sydney club (the AFL has the same problem in a different city) and the two teams constantly mentioned were Manly (Northern Suburbs) and Cronulla (Southern Suburbs), two areas you mentioned that further expansion in Sydney would make the most sense for. Are there other factors for those two being the ones earmarked for death such as a lack of supporters/success/sponsorship or are the areas just not amiable for professional sporting teams?
 

Pippen94

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Seeing the Mariners struggle like they do in the A-League is enough for me to think that Central Coast will never have an AFL side in my life time but as a long-time supporter of further NSW/QLD expansion, I would argue that Illawarra/Wollongong and Newcastle make a lot more sense for a 3rd and 4th AFL team in NSW then just putting more teams in Sydney itself. Both areas already have strong population growth from what I've read and are more economically viable then Tasmania with the bonus of being in NSW and close to Sydney. Newcastle in particular has a strong footy league and it's steadily growing and Illawarra having a league at all is vast progress. I know both areas would need lots of ground work but by 2035-2040, GWS and the Suns should be fully embedded into the league which would give the AFL ample amounts of time to set things up. I also agree somewhat with your point regarding Canberra but in 20 years time, the ACT should have its own side. They should have had a side 20 years ago.

You're more informed regarding these areas but I was just watching those videos regarding the NRL possibly culling a Sydney club (the AFL has the same problem in a different city) and the two teams constantly mentioned were Manly (Northern Suburbs) and Cronulla (Southern Suburbs), two areas you mentioned that further expansion in Sydney would make the most sense for. Are there other factors for those two being the ones earmarked for death such as a lack of supporters/success/sponsorship or are the areas just not amiable for professional sporting teams?
If NRL is culling clubs because they represent too small an area why would AFL put a team there?
 

Pippen94

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2nd team was placed in league to increase TV audience, particularly for GF. Well, new team made GF & ratings didn't move at all. There won't be anymore teams in NSW.
 

abcde12345

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Seeing the Mariners struggle like they do in the A-League is enough for me to think that Central Coast will never have an AFL side in my life time but as a long-time supporter of further NSW/QLD expansion, I would argue that Illawarra/Wollongong and Newcastle make a lot more sense for a 3rd and 4th AFL team in NSW then just putting more teams in Sydney itself. Both areas already have strong population growth from what I've read and are more economically viable then Tasmania with the bonus of being in NSW and close to Sydney. Newcastle in particular has a strong footy league and it's steadily growing and Illawarra having a league at all is vast progress. I know both areas would need lots of ground work but by 2035-2040, GWS and the Suns should be fully embedded into the league which would give the AFL ample amounts of time to set things up. I also agree somewhat with your point regarding Canberra but in 20 years time, the ACT should have its own side. They should have had a side 20 years ago.
There are a lot of issues with the non-metro regions in NSW in terms of an AFL team. These regions typically come with a smaller population to draw from, poorer infrastructure making accessibility to games more difficult, and significantly weaker economies. Newcastle would have comfortably the strongest demographics out of the Central Coast/Illawarra/Newcastle group mentioned. Even still, Sydney has an economy 10x the size of the Hunter region (less corporate dollars to spend) and a population 6x the size of the Hunter. In addition to this, the Hunter region covers an area about 8x the size of the whole of Sydney, meaning accessibility to games is significantly more difficult. Throw in the fact that Hunter contributes nothing to 5 Metro Split TV figures, as well as the hostility of the region to the game, and it makes the project a very uphill battle for a limited return. The only real reason the AFL should consider pursuing a region in this situation is if they believe it is likely to become the next major city, overtaking Adelaide (unlikely for a looooong time based on current projections).

The fundamentals for a team in the North Shore of Sydney are much stronger. A larger and faster growing population in an area one seventh the size of Newcastle, as well as an economy over 2x as big as Newcastle and it actually feeds into the TV ratings for the metro areas. I would argue the region is also much less hostile to the game than Newcastle. The are has issues (poor infrastructure relative to Sydney south of the Harbour, not much availability of land near infrastructure, cannibalisation of existing teams), however I would argue it's the next most likely growth region for an AFL team at the present point. Still won't happen for another 30-50 years most likely (GWS needs to be strong off-field before its relevant).

I would rather see a Tasmanian side brought in over the next few of years (if the AFL can extend its current contract for another two years, 2025 would be perfect I think), and then the AFL get more creative with fixturing. Use byes to extend the season while giving teams more rest throughout the year, which will hopefully lead to better quality finals as teams will be carrying less niggles and will be less exhausted. Having teams play only 20 games, but using byes to keep the season 23 or 24 weeks long, allows for even more prime time games (less issues with Thursday night games and team rest), as well as less games that overlap.

You're more informed regarding these areas but I was just watching those videos regarding the NRL possibly culling a Sydney club (the AFL has the same problem in a different city) and the two teams constantly mentioned were Manly (Northern Suburbs) and Cronulla (Southern Suburbs), two areas you mentioned that further expansion in Sydney would make the most sense for. Are there other factors for those two being the ones earmarked for death such as a lack of supporters/success/sponsorship or are the areas just not amiable for professional sporting teams?
I think the issues the NRL face are very different to the AFL - almost so different that they don't bear much relevant comparison. Manly as a team is very insular. They're the team everyone hates unless you support them (like Collingwood in the AFL), however their supporter base is very small. They do not try to appeal to the Northern Suburbs, focusing very much on the peninsula instead. Their facilities are also horrendous from what I understand, and are very inaccessible. Picture Fremantle playing games at a very run down Fremantle Oval - it would limit their support from the rest of Perth, and be very difficult for anyone outside of the immediate surrounding suburbs to get to.

Cronulla has similar issues to Manly in that everyone hates them while having a small supporter base. Their stadium is a bit more accessible, and not as run down as Manly's facilities, but the population of the area is relatively small, they are wedged between the two support areas of a much bigger club (St George) and the available corporate dollars of the Southern Suburbs is already pretty small. My understanding is that the Cronulla team has had a lot of off-field issues with it's players and the law too. Could definitely be wrong on that, but from what I understand, the media likes to label them as public enemy number 1 (at least that's the impression I get from QLD - might have more to do with QLD hating Gallen than anything else).

Anyone with more NRL knowledge can feel free to correct me on this part if I've made any mistakes.

For what it's worth - I wouldn't suggest a Southern Suburbs team as a prospective area for an AFL team either. South-West is a different area (Campbelltown, Liverpool, Camden). An AFL team in the south-west would be an even longer term proposition than GWS I think. Don't see it happening for a loooooong time.
 

NoobPie

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I really just don't see the value in going to 3 teams even in the longer term.

I've said previous in this thread, diminishing returns kicks in big time shifting from 2 to 3 teams.

The "worst" case scenario is that game grows to the point where sydney resembles another west coast eagles financially though support is softer for the game at the north and south extremities (eg Manly and the Shire) than in the east, north shore, inner south and west etc.


1570076005986.png
 

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BringBackTorps

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The Australian J. Stensholt 27.9.19

Pimco "...American bond traders who are in charge of hundreds of billions of investor dollars globally, but have quietly been putting their own millions into the GWS Giants...the sports loving pair maintain an extremely low profile when it comes to their passion for Australian Rules football...stumped up $2.5 million annually to buy naming rights...for...Giants Stadium...they have fallen in love with the game, and with the team...they came to us (AFL- my word), it was not a matter of us approaching them...Ivascyn...manages...more than $300 bn in funds...".

Good ol' GWS, helping the AFL with connections to Pimco American "old money" in LA, NY & Boston.
Where will these types of relationships eventually develop for GWS- &, perhaps, more importantly, for the AFL?

Daily Mail UK S.Gibbs 27.9.19

(note typo: $300 million should be $300 billion)


The Australian (FULL article)


(behind a paywall- can anyone open it)

Sydney is Australia's financial centre, CBA & Westpac have HQ's there, & has the majority of foreign company HQ's in Aust. It is Aust.'s wealthiest city (through private property wealth), & the ABS estimates it will have c. 8,000,000 by 2050.
(But NAB, ANZ & the Industry Super Funds have their HQ's in Melb. Also, the rapidly growing Industry Superannuation Funds, which swamp the other super Funds, will get much bigger when employer super increases- from current 9.5 to 12%)

The AFL has no choice but to "follow the money"; & the "power centre". If the AF acquiesces, permanently, significant large areas to other sports etc, these other sports will, undoubtedly, get much stronger & richer- &, inevitably, attack AF heartland areas.
It would be too risky for the AFL not to have, eventually, a 3rd team in Sydney; & to follow the power centre- Canberra.
The team (Sth Sydney Canberra- 6-5 split of games) will be formed only after GWS regularly gets lockout crowds... in 15+ years ?
 
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madmug

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The Australian J. Stensholt 27.9.19

Pimco "...American bond traders who are in charge of hundreds of billions of investor dollars globally, but have quietly been putting their own millions into the GWS Giants...the sports loving pair maintain an extremely low profile when it comes to their passion for Australian Rules football...stumped up $2.5 million annually to buy naming rights...for...Giants Stadium...they have fallen in love with the game, and with the team...they came to us (AFL- my word), it was not a matter of us approaching them...Ivascyn...manages...more than $300 bn in funds...".

Good ol' GWS, helping the AFL with connections to Pimco American "old money" in LA, NY & Boston.
Where will these types of relationships eventually develop for GWS- &, perhaps, more importantly, for the AFL?

Daily Mail UK S.Gibbs 27.9.19

(note typo: $300 million should be $300 billion)


The Australian (FULL article)


(behind a paywall- can anyone open it)

Sydney is Australia's financial centre, CBA & Westpac have HQ's there, & has the majority of foreign company HQ's in Aust. It is Aust.'s wealthiest city (through private property wealth), & the ABS estimates it will have c. 8,000,000 by 2050.
(But NAB, ANZ & the Industry Super Funds have their HQ's in Melb. Also, the rapidly growing Industry Superannuation Funds, which swamp the other super Funds, will get much bigger when employer super increases- from current 9.5 to 12%)

The AFL has no choice but to "follow the money"; & the "power centre". If the AF acquiesces, permanently, significant large areas to other sports etc, these other sports will, undoubtedly, get much stronger & richer- &, inevitably, attack AF heartland areas.
It would be too risky for the AFL not to have, eventually, a 3rd team in Sydney; & to follow the power centre- Canberra.
The team (Sth Sydney Canberra- 6-5 split of games) will be formed only after GWS regularly gets lockout crowds... in 15+ years ?
The 2nd Sydney team made strategic sense for the growth of both ARF & the AFL.

However, I don't see much upside in a 3rd side for a very very very long time, if ever.

I certainly don't see a time we'll get an Illawarra or Newcastle area teams.

Canberra should have happened years ago, b4 NRL took what was a growing AR city. I think that's in doubt now as GWS need Canberra.

So what do people think is the optimum number of teams in the AFL into the future?

EPL & most other big soccer leagues have 20 teams, in much bigger populations than Australia.
 

Johnny Bananas

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The 2nd Sydney team made strategic sense for the growth of both ARF & the AFL.

However, I don't see much upside in a 3rd side for a very very very long time, if ever.
As has been discussed before, they can be very different areas. North Sydney or Campbelltown are both practically different cities altogether to Homebush.

So what do people think is the optimum number of teams in the AFL into the future?

EPL & most other big soccer leagues have 20 teams, in much bigger populations than Australia.
20 is the optimum number. What you're ignoring is that the PL and other soccer leagues have 60+ other professional teams in lower leagues who have serious fanbases and can potentially join the top league through promotion and relegation. And all those leagues have a couple of behemoths in the big cities, whereas the AFL is much better at spreading fanbases around thanks to equalisation measures.
 

madmug

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As has been discussed before, they can be very different areas. North Sydney or Campbelltown are both practically different cities altogether to Homebush.


20 is the optimum number. What you're ignoring is that the PL and other soccer leagues have 60+ other professional teams in lower leagues who have serious fanbases and can potentially join the top league through promotion and relegation. And all those leagues have a couple of behemoths in the big cities, whereas the AFL is much better at spreading fanbases around thanks to equalisation measures.
LGA's may be different, but were talking about an AFL club. None of those areas you mention will ever have an AFL team. Geez North Sydney couldn't sustain the Bears in the NRL, Campbelltown get a few Wests Tigers games a year.

The number of professional soccer teams below the EPL & the other Eurosoccer leagues is irrelevant. EPL only ever has 20. Its TV revenues that sustain the EPL. Below that many clubs struggle for existence.
 

NoobPie

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As has been discussed before, they can be very different areas. North Sydney or Campbelltown are both practically different cities altogether to Homebush.


20 is the optimum number. What you're ignoring is that the PL and other soccer leagues have 60+ other professional teams in lower leagues who have serious fanbases and can potentially join the top league through promotion and relegation. And all those leagues have a couple of behemoths in the big cities, whereas the AFL is much better at spreading fanbases around thanks to equalisation measures.
Valid point but i suspect maybe only English soccer has 60 plus pro teams outside of the top division.

Even the bigger countries cease to be pro at either the third or fourth tiers
 

HavUEvaSeenTheRain

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The 2nd Sydney team made strategic sense for the growth of both ARF & the AFL.

However, I don't see much upside in a 3rd side for a very very very long time, if ever.

I certainly don't see a time we'll get an Illawarra or Newcastle area teams.

Canberra should have happened years ago, b4 NRL took what was a growing AR city. I think that's in doubt now as GWS need Canberra.

So what do people think is the optimum number of teams in the AFL into the future?

EPL & most other big soccer leagues have 20 teams, in much bigger populations than Australia.
The Canberra example is the exact reason I’m a huge fan of the GC. I’ve been told by plenty of friends and family from Canberra than have been involved in the game their for generations that it was more AR then League at one stage and was lost because League beat them to it.
Although GC will never be majority AFL their is a huge chance that in 20-30 years they could be extremely even with league and like Canberra they may not be ready for a side but if the AFL didn’t make the move when they did they probably never would be.
 

Johnny Bananas

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LGA's may be different, but were talking about an AFL club. None of those areas you mention will ever have an AFL team. Geez North Sydney couldn't sustain the Bears in the NRL, Campbelltown get a few Wests Tigers games a year.
Well not with that attitude they won't. Is your only criterion whether those areas can support an NRL team? That would ignore the massive demographic and infrastructure changes that are taking place. The sheer number of people flooding into Campbelltown and Camden means that it's going to become a large population centre in its own right, while North Sydney will be very well connected to the rest of the city by the metro when it's completed. And the Western Sydney Airport could be a real game changer for the economy of the west. I can assure you that Sydney in 20 years time is going to be a very different place from Sydney in the early 90s.

The number of professional soccer teams below the EPL & the other Eurosoccer leagues is irrelevant. EPL only ever has 20. Its TV revenues that sustain the EPL. Below that many clubs struggle for existence.
I don't think it's irrelevant. TV revenues cannot capture how many clubs below the PL regularly get 30 000 people per week to games, despite being in a lower league and often in fairly small towns. As I said above, soccer works on the basis of having a couple of behemoths with global fanbases who earn the money in TV rights. We have a very different, much more even landscape and we don't need a Manchester United or equivalent to do the heavy lifting, so the comparison isn't really valid.


Valid point but i suspect maybe only English soccer has 60 plus pro teams outside of the top division.

Even the bigger countries cease to be pro at either the third or fourth tiers
So 40 extra teams then. My point is the same.
 

madmug

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Well not with that attitude they won't. Is your only criterion whether those areas can support an NRL team? That would ignore the massive demographic and infrastructure changes that are taking place. The sheer number of people flooding into Campbelltown and Camden means that it's going to become a large population centre in its own right, while North Sydney will be very well connected to the rest of the city by the metro when it's completed. And the Western Sydney Airport could be a real game changer for the economy of the west. I can assure you that Sydney in 20 years time is going to be a very different place from Sydney in the early 90s.


I don't think it's irrelevant. TV revenues cannot capture how many clubs below the PL regularly get 30 000 people per week to games, despite being in a lower league and often in fairly small towns. As I said above, soccer works on the basis of having a couple of behemoths with global fanbases who earn the money in TV rights. We have a very different, much more even landscape and we don't need a Manchester United or equivalent to do the heavy lifting, so the comparison isn't really valid.



So 40 extra teams then. My point is the same.
You paint a lovely AR picture for Sydney. Its not real though. Where, realistically, can the supporters & finances come from? SW Sydney area is huge, but running an AFL club out of it is a long bow to draw. Again, how many teams is optimal for the AFL. Given that, Is 3 in Sydney realistic in the foreseeable future? The Swans soaked up most of the AFL support in the city, & that took a long time. GWS have a huge are to draw from but that sort of cultural change will take ages, if it ever really does change that much. A third???

You should look up the average home crowds for the Leagues below the EPL. I saw only 2 clubs below EPL ( 3 levels of Sky bet Leagues) getting 30k. A number of the bigger traditional clubs get over 20k. But so many clubs get very much less than that, much less than 10k for most of them. (check Football Web Page).

The AFL does relly on the bigger clubs generating crowds & TV viewers. How else do some smaller Melbourne clubs survive?
 

Marcel Proust

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THE AFL is taunting rival footy codes by erecting free goalposts in a staggering 100 schools throughout Sydney and regional NSW.

It has left the NRL, ARU and FFA deeply concerned.

With cash, ambition and resources, the AFL continues to push deep into the rugby league and rugby union heartlands. Parents have noticed the AFL posts popping up around NSW.

The success of Sydney Swans and GWS Giants has further enhanced the AFL’s product and brand throughout Sydney and NSW.
thats pretty smart actually
 

Tasmanian saint

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Well not with that attitude they won't. Is your only criterion whether those areas can support an NRL team? That would ignore the massive demographic and infrastructure changes that are taking place. The sheer number of people flooding into Campbelltown and Camden means that it's going to become a large population centre in its own right, while North Sydney will be very well connected to the rest of the city by the metro when it's completed. And the Western Sydney Airport could be a real game changer for the economy of the west. I can assure you that Sydney in 20 years time is going to be a very different place from Sydney in the early 90s.


I don't think it's irrelevant. TV revenues cannot capture how many clubs below the PL regularly get 30 000 people per week to games, despite being in a lower league and often in fairly small towns. As I said above, soccer works on the basis of having a couple of behemoths with global fanbases who earn the money in TV rights. We have a very different, much more even landscape and we don't need a Manchester United or equivalent to do the heavy lifting, so the comparison isn't really valid.



So 40 extra teams then. My point is the same.
Very inaccurate comments re English football you obviously don’t follow the lower leagues very closely if you think the majority of clubs are getting crowds of 30,000 on a regular basis there are a handful of clubs in the championship that get those numbers your Leeds United’s type clubs who were long time pl clubs but in league 1 and 2 the majority of clubs are playing out of small stadiums getting crowds around 10-15 thousand you know you don’t need to try and act like an expert on everything on big footy especially when it’s obvious you don’t have a great deal of knowledge on the topic English football writing I’ll informed comments
 

BringBackTorps

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1. The Australian C. Lacey 27.9

The Principal of Rooty Hill HS (42 kms west of Sydney, near Mt Druitt) discusses the impact of GWS in her school & area.

According to the 2016 Census, persons who described themselves as from "Australian" background were 13.2%; form "English" background 12.2%; & from "Filipino" background 18%. 55% were born overseas.

An interesting snapshot of GR AF in WS in 2009, & now.

"In the region there is now at least junior club in each of the west's 14 local government areas form just two or three in the region when work began in 2009 to secure the code's new licence.
Since the introduction of the Giants into the AFL competition at the start of 2012, registered participants in NSW and the ACT have grown by 105 per cent to 280,000. In the same period, club teams have grown from just under 1200 to a little over 2000".


The growth of AF in WS, & other parts of NSW, has been very significant in the last 10 years. There are now, in Sydney only, c. 13,000 regd jnr AF club players from U9- U17 (this 13,000 does not include players from 5 y.o.-8 y.o., where many thousands are in Club Auskick).

In the WS in 2012, there were 67 AF teams from U10 - U17; in 2019, over 174 (additional WS teams play in the Swans Zone, for higher competition).
In the Swans Sydney Zone in 2012, there were 210 teams; in 2019, 491 teams.
(Neither figures include the many thousands playing Club Auskick)

From the late 1990's, AFL drafting of players from the AF heartland of sthn. NSW & the ACT had crashed to very low nos- but since 2011, good Draft nos. have occurred. In 2019, there are c. 100 players born in NSW, ACT & Qld on AFL lists (c. 50 from NSW & ACT).

GR AF is almost in a position of "critical mass" in all areas of Sydney ie an AF club less than 15 minute drive from home. When this happens, the "convenience factor" will deliver further big increase in nos.
It is in the youngest age groups where AF is having most growth. Combined with the significant GR AF growth in primary & secondary schools (public & private), AF is expected to continue its recent strong growth in the next 10 years. If this occurs, GR AF will be in a very strong position in NSW & ACT by 2029.

2. Camden, in far SW Sydney, was, unusually, promoted to the senior Sydney FL Premier Division in 2019- even though, in 2018, it only finished 3rd in Platinum Division (below Premier).
Southern Power, in Sydney's south- Sutherland, won its Platinum Seniors & Reserve GF's in 2019, & will be promoted to Premier Div. in 2020. Promotion is not automatic from Platinum to Premier each year for GF winners.

3. FULL Pimco article on GWS funding, from The Australian. re my post #1162
Click on journalist P. Williams' tweet 26.9 for complete story.



EDIT:
It's actually 62 players on AFL lists from NSW/ACT in 2019- this is massive!
There are also some guns from NSW/ACT being highlighted for the 2019 Draft. The AFL has no choice but to focus on 52% of the Aust. population, particularly when one considers the long term, significant decline in GR male RL & RU regd. comp. players.

There would have been far less just prior to GWS creation, the GWS & Swans Academies, with their essential GWS & Swans branding/link to local tribalism, have been brilliant- a game-changer (figuratively & literally).

Thanks, Prof, for your link below- I don't know how I missed your Thread.

Yes, I agree, with your view on the SW. IMO, Campbelltown (42 km from CBD) would be the best location if there was a combined South Sydney Canberra team- a reasonable drive from the ACT; &, also, the new Club should play some games in Wollongong, to pick up the Illawarra & South Coast. I think some Melb. Clubs would be encouraged (for $) to play Home games in Wollongong, if it had a suitable ground.
 
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Professor Knowall

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An interesting snapshot of GR AF in WS in 2009, & now.

"In the region there is now at least junior club in each of the west's 14 local government areas form just two or three in the region when work began in 2009 to secure the code's new licence.
Since the introduction of the Giants into the AFL competition at the start of 2012, registered participants in NSW and the ACT have grown by 105 per cent to 280,000. In the same period, club teams have grown from just under 1200 to a little over 2000".


... In the WS in 2012, there were 67 AF teams from U10 - U17; in 2019, over 174 (additional WS teams play in the Swans Zone, for higher competition).
In the Swans Sydney Zone in 2012, there were 210 teams; in 2019, 491 teams.
(Neither figures include the many thousands playing Club Auskick)

From the late 1990's, AFL drafting of players from the AF heartland of sthn. NSW & the ACT had crashed to very low nos- but since 2011, good Draft nos. have occurred. In 2019, there are c. 100 players born in NSW, ACT & Qld on AFL lists (c. 50 from NSW & ACT)...
Actually, there's 62 players raised in NSW/ACT in 2019 - https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/62-afl-listed-nsw-players.1223103/

In looking at future growth patterns in Sydney, and assuming that by c2035-2040, GWS has built up to having good support and financial security, the now 'outer SW' would have grown to the extent to make it the most likely location of any Sydney third club. Such a club could also claim the Illawarra and South Coast as part of it's region.
 

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