List Mgmt. AFC - 2014 Drafting and Trading

[I Lost My Keays]

AFC site has a "who we picked at 14 previously" story.
Brodie Smith (awesome) but then the other two were Watts and Sellar......depressing.

Durdin is an unknown quantity and as much as he might remind you of Sellar its unfair to say he is the second coming of him.

There are some concerns around the season he just had and the gradual improvement as the season went on, which definitely raises concern.
Having said that there are a number of KPP's that will be available at our pick that all have question marks over them. This is why the AFC team get paid the big bucks to not make the Watts mistake again!

Exactly haha

If i had to pick a KPD it would easily be Goddard , I think he will be a great KPD in the future tbh

 

[DroppingTheBall]

I didn't realise that draft picks are missing out on the start of their first preseason at their new club. Must put them behind the 8-ball.

 

[Canberra Based Crow]

I didn't realise that draft picks are missing out on the start of their first preseason at their new club. Must put them behind the 8-ball.

Yeah, not ideal. Father-son picks are at their clubs already, but Adelaide wouldnt know what one of them is yet......

 

[Danoz]

Yeah, not ideal. Father-son picks are at their clubs already, but Adelaide wouldnt know what one of them is yet......

http://www.sen.com.au/news/2014-afl-mock-draft-30

14. ADELAIDE – Brayden Maynard | Sandringham Dragons
Possibly a slight reach, but after just missing Maynard as a father-son, they take the punt and not risk waiting to their second round selection.
In the mix: Sam Durdin, Caleb Marchbank

 

[I Lost My Keays]

http://www.sen.com.au/news/2014-afl-mock-draft-30

aha no. We would not use a first on him , maybe a second though

 

[Matman23]

We need as close to a sure thing at pick 14 as possible after missing 2 drafts.
Durdin is not that player

Unfortunately Key Position Players are always a risk. As are outside types to an extent. We are going to need to take a gamble to fill the needs. The reason we are in this position is because we have played it safe in inside mids in the past. Understandably though.

 

[baldandbroke]

Unfortunately Key Position Players are always a risk. As are outside types to an extent. We are going to need to take a gamble to fill the needs. The reason we are in this position is because we have played it safe in inside mids in the past. Understandably though.

Other teams will be sifting through the draft trying to find inside mids !

I was checking out the SA options for a key defender, as that is where I thought we might find a gem for later in the draft and it made me wonder how much the go home factor has increased as a parameter in the picking of draftees? Not just picking someone from your home state - but picking someone less likely to play that card down the track.

I saw Jarrod Pickett's interview where he said that he was not a homesick type - I reckon that is a huge tick.

"In the past, Indigenous boys have been known to drop out and fall behind and stuff like that," he says.

"Nothing affects me. I'll do fine in the AFL and I'll show everyone that all Indigenous players aren't the same. Some people, they talk about you without even knowing you or knowing about you. They just assume. 'Picketty might be this' or 'He might get homesick'.

"I don't think I will. I'll be a good pick for whichever club picks me. And the clubs that didn't pick me, thinking I might have been one of those boys, I'll prove them wrong."​

We seem to see these Free Agent discussions about players "going home" a lot now. Even young first year / second year players are looking to get home pretty early on - albeit these guys are usually fringe players (Boyd the exception)

PS - that U/18 highlight reel is something else for Pickett (http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-11-...g-question-for-draft-speedster-jarrod-pickett)

 

[Matman23]

Other teams will be sifting through the draft trying to find inside mids !

I was checking out the SA options for a key defender, as that is where I thought we might find a gem for later in the draft and it made me wonder how much the go home factor has increased as a parameter in the picking of draftees? Not just picking someone from your home state - but picking someone less likely to play that card down the track.

I saw Jarrod Pickett's interview where he said that he was not a homesick type - I reckon that is a huge tick.

"In the past, Indigenous boys have been known to drop out and fall behind and stuff like that," he says.

"Nothing affects me. I'll do fine in the AFL and I'll show everyone that all Indigenous players aren't the same. Some people, they talk about you without even knowing you or knowing about you. They just assume. 'Picketty might be this' or 'He might get homesick'.

"I don't think I will. I'll be a good pick for whichever club picks me. And the clubs that didn't pick me, thinking I might have been one of those boys, I'll prove them wrong."​

We seem to see these Free Agent discussions about players "going home" a lot now. Even young first year / second year players are looking to get home pretty early on - albeit these guys are usually fringe players (Boyd the exception)

PS - that U/18 highlight reel is something else for Pickett (http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-11-...g-question-for-draft-speedster-jarrod-pickett)

I like the idea of taking a key defender late in the draft. Kory Beard would be my pick. Darcy Cameron in the rookie draft for development. Depending on what type of player we take with our first. I also like the look of Violo-Rainbow or Oscar McDonald if they are around at our second pick.

 

[Vader]

I was checking out the SA options for a key defender, as that is where I thought we might find a gem for later in the draft and it made me wonder how much the go home factor has increased as a parameter in the picking of draftees? Not just picking someone from your home state - but picking someone less likely to play that card down the track.

Historically, Adelaide haven't worried too much about picking players from SA, with players from SA now a significant minority on our team list as a result. That said, they don't often draft players from Vic Metro or WA, so it's definitely a consideration.

Here are our 1st draft selections from the last 10 years:
2004 - John Meesen (Vic)
2005 - Richard Douglas (Vic)
2006 - James Sellar (SA)
2007 - Patrick Dangerfield (Vic)
2008 - Phil Davis (SA)
2009 - Daniel Talia (Vic)
2010 - Brodie Smith (SA)
2011 - Sam Kerridge (Vic)
2012 - Sam Siggins (Tas)
2013 - Matt Crouch (Vic)

Only 3 of 10 are from SA. Of those 10, only one turned into a "homing pigeon" - and he was drafted from a South Australian club!

What is the real lesson here? People need to broaden their horizons a little. The Crows generally avoid drafting from WA & Vic Metro, but the rest of Australia (particularly Vic Country) is definitely fair game. It might be worth considering non-SA based options on that basis.

 

[splat868]

Last one from these stats

Compare AFC to Hawthorn:

Key Defender: #1 Gibson, #15 Lake, #18 Startton,
Small / Medium Defender: #2 Burgoyne, #7 Birchall,
Midfielder: #21 Lewis, #22 Mitchell, #29 Hodge,
Key Forward: #2 Roughhead,
Midfield/ Forward: #9 Rioli, #15 Hill,
Small / Medium Forward: #1 Breust, #3 Gunstan, #10 Puopolo
Ruck: #8 McEvoy, #14 Hale, #29 Ceglar

One difficiency I see in these stats is that it is based over 2 years of games.

As such, it doesn't give recognition to players just coming on.

We have

B Crouch
M crouch
Brown
Kedge
Cameron
Grigg

Who could all push into that category in a year or 2 whereas Hawthorn have a mature list.

We have a great base, just need a few more to develop.

It also doesn't really rate shut down defenders like Talia, and favours rebounding defenders.

I do like the ratings system, but it could use a few tweeks.

 

[baldandbroke]

One difficiency I see in these stats is that it is based over 2 years of games.

Nah, those Hawks #'s were from 2014

 

[Matman23]

Nah, those Hawks #'s were from 2014

Player ratings are based on a players last 40 games.

 

[Freddy Bassett]

Unfortunately Key Position Players are always a risk. As are outside types to an extent. We are going to need to take a gamble to fill the needs. The reason we are in this position is because we have played it safe in inside mids in the past. Understandably though.

Agree and agree... But Durdin just seems to be an inbetween player to me.... Like Mckernan and Sellar
Plays his best football in a position he will not be able to play in the AFL... That is a major concern

 

[Freddy Bassett]

Other teams will be sifting through the draft trying to find inside mids !

I was checking out the SA options for a key defender, as that is where I thought we might find a gem for later in the draft and it made me wonder how much the go home factor has increased as a parameter in the picking of draftees? Not just picking someone from your home state - but picking someone less likely to play that card down the track.

I saw Jarrod Pickett's interview where he said that he was not a homesick type - I reckon that is a huge tick.

"In the past, Indigenous boys have been known to drop out and fall behind and stuff like that," he says.

"Nothing affects me. I'll do fine in the AFL and I'll show everyone that all Indigenous players aren't the same. Some people, they talk about you without even knowing you or knowing about you. They just assume. 'Picketty might be this' or 'He might get homesick'.

"I don't think I will. I'll be a good pick for whichever club picks me. And the clubs that didn't pick me, thinking I might have been one of those boys, I'll prove them wrong."​

We seem to see these Free Agent discussions about players "going home" a lot now. Even young first year / second year players are looking to get home pretty early on - albeit these guys are usually fringe players (Boyd the exception)

PS - that U/18 highlight reel is something else for Pickett (http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-11-...g-question-for-draft-speedster-jarrod-pickett)

If Rendell said that he would be hung...

 

[LC40]

Sellar 2.0

Durdin is so much better than Sellars.
I respect your opinion but could you give an explanation as to how you come to that conclusion that is football based and hopefully not a gut feel.

 

[Matman23]

Durdin is so much better than Sellars.
I respect your opinion but could you give an explanation as to how you come to that conclusion that is football based and hopefully not a gut feel.

I feel that the situation has similarities to the Sellar one:
A highly rated SA KPP that slid in the lead up to the draft and fell into our lap. Mostly due to injury and form.
Obviously nothing against Durdin or his ability but probably just reminds people of the lead up to us picking Sellar.

 

[Freddy Bassett]

Sellar was a more decorated junior IMO...

 

[mickfaxis]

Sellar was a more decorated junior IMO...

What a dud!

 

[baldandbroke]

Player ratings are based on a players last 40 games.

Yep - you are right - I was thinking of some stats I crunched the other day

Looking at how they are worked out though - does suggest that they weight the recent games more highly and would accommodate a player with less than 40 games statistically.

A player's rating is determined by aggregating his points tally based on a rolling window of the previous two seasons. For example, after round six of the 2014 season, a player's rating will be based on matches from round seven of the 2012 season onwards. However, only a player's most recent 40 matches are used in the calculation of his rating. This creates a buffer for players missing matches through injury, suspension, omission or by not being involved in finals. A player's most recent 20 matches are given greater weight in determining his rating. Matches 21 through 40 are progressively reduced in weighting, from 100 per cent down to five per cent for the earliest game in the window.​

 

[LC40]

I feel that the situation has similarities to the Sellar one:
A highly rated SA KPP that slid in the lead up to the draft and fell into our lap. Mostly due to injury and form.
Obviously nothing against Durdin or his ability but probably just reminds people of the lead up to us picking Sellar.

Fair enough I'm a fan and have stated the reason many times before. If he slid to us I would be pleased but I would be just as happy with Goddard.
Durdin will be a very good player IMO.

 

[Freddy Bassett]

What a dud!

Not sure any draft pick in our entire history had me as excited as when Sellar dropped to 14...
And I remember being so annoyed when we overlooked Ebert for some unknown Victorian..
Just shows we really know SFA

 

[splat868]

Not sure any draft pick in our entire history had me as excited as when Sellar dropped to 14...
And I remember being so annoyed when we overlooked Ebert for some unknown Victorian..
Just shows we really know SFA

Yep,

We picked up Tippett in the same draft.

I remember thinking how exciting our future forward line would be with these 2.

That couldn't have turned out much worse. :-(

 

[Canberra Based Crow]

http://www.sen.com.au/news/2014-afl-mock-draft-30

Another example of where we miss out......

 

[NTRabbit]

Brayden Maynard is one of those players that gets by with very little fan fare. He isn’t an overly impressive kick and doesn’t have a huge tank on him, but that doesn’t stop him tenaciously chasing down opposition players and making sure they know he’s around.

Maynard is a fantastic tackler and in this day and age of forward pressure, he offers it in bucket loads.

He has also been trialled up the ground through the midfield, but due to his lack of endurance, he hasn’t been able to sustain it for long periods of time.

While he might not do too much damage disposal-wise, he will rake in the turnovers either directly or indirectly through the pressure he puts on his opposition.

Didn't we just delist Jared Patrenko?

 

[Mego Red]

Another example of where we miss out......

If that ends up being out draft, I'm going to riot.