Autopsy AFL 2018 R9: Liked, Hated, Learnt

[Final Siren]

Learned: Richmond losing away interstate to a grand total of two sides across all of 2017 & 2018 (the Grand Finalist and the current #1 side) means they can't travel.

 

[DangerSloane]

Learned: Richmond losing away interstate to a grand total of two sides across all of 2017 & 2018 (the Grand Finalist and the current #1 side) means they can't travel.

What do you play like 5 out of victoria every year?
Not exactly a large sample size, which I think is kinda the point.

2/2 this season out of Victoria you've been belted.
So you can make it out that its 'only 2 games', but its 'only 2 games, out of only 2 games'

 

[Final Siren]

What do you play like 5 out of victoria every year?
Not exactly a large sample size, which I think is kinda the point.

2/2 this season out of Victoria you've been belted.
So you can make it out that its 'only 2 games', but its 'only 2 games, out of only 2 games'

When the trend goes away as you widen the sample size, that's a hint that there might not be much to it. This year it's 2/2 after playing two strong teams; last year it was 2 losses from 6 interstate games. And that includes a 3-pt loss to a preliminary finalist, a 50-point win, and a 100-pt win.

 

[DangerSloane]

When the trend goes away as you widen the sample size, that's a hint that there might not be much to it. This year it's 2/2 after playing two strong teams; last year it was 2 losses from 6 interstate games. And that includes a 3-pt loss to a preliminary finalist, a 50-point win, and a 100-pt win.

Then you look at the trend and notice that 3 of the interstate teams you played away last year were bottom 6 teams.

So out of the competitive teams. You won 1/3

Now of course its harder to beat good teams than bad teams, but beating up on the low teams doesnt really mean you're going well interstate.

 

[West Coast 06]

and we get the feeling you'll be too tall n too slow at the mcg in september
thats if you make it

Why do you think Richmond are monty’s to make it?

Would love to finish first and play tigers in a home prelim.

That’s if you make it.

 

[Final Siren]

Then you look at the trend and notice that 3 of the interstate teams you played away last year were bottom 6 teams.

So out of the competitive teams. You won 1/3

Now of course its harder to beat good teams than bad teams, but beating up on the low teams doesnt really mean you're going well interstate.

It doesn't mean there's something weird about Richmond's interstate results, either. They're doing the same thing as most teams.

 

[DangerSloane]

Why do you think Richmond are monty’s to make it?

Would love to finish first and play tigers in a home prelim.

That’s if you make it.

They play half a year of good footy and now they're a 'powerhouse' lol

 

[DangerSloane]

It doesn't mean there's something weird about Richmond's interstate results, either. They're doing the same thing as most teams.

Well not really.
8 of the teams play interstate every 2nd week.
Lets compare with the top interstate teams

West Coast have lost 0 of those 4 away games.
Adelaide have lost 1 of those 4 away games.
Port have lost 2 of those 5 away games.
Sydney have lost 0 of those 4 away games.

If you think 100% isnt different to 18% then maybe you need to reassess

 

[roacheee]

Why do you think Richmond are monty’s to make it?

Would love to finish first and play tigers in a home prelim.

That’s if you make it.

we wont finish 4th, why
check our fixture
also watch the game and see how many times we didn't man the mark, wont happen again
our pressure was 3rd worst this round, wont happen again

 

[WCE Wizard]

In Round 1, everyone's first game at Optus.
Don't see it happening again this year.

We were beaten by a freak name Buddy Franklin, was just too damm good

 

[WCE Wizard]

Liked: That the patronising and condescending crap that Richmond has endured for 37 years is no more, we are now despised by the general football community as represented by the Big Footy Main Board. Long may it continue.
Liked: Brisbane winning their first game, deserved and overdue, and the recruit guy kicking a "snag"

Hated: Being outworked and outplayed for 3 quarters. Kudos to West Coast as their running, ball use and marking was outstanding.

Learnt: That West Coast are now red hot premiership favourites... in May!! When will the football public and football media learn that the AFL is such a volatile competition. Last week Geelong was the realistic challenger to Richmond, this week it's a Melbourne v west Coast Grand Final, next week...

Wouldnt say red hot just yet, i think you boys have that covered. We still have a long way to go for that. Even the most passionate eagles supporters will tell you. I want to see how we go in a few more big games. Its only round 9 and a long way to go. However pleased to see how we are playing, i definately did not have us at 8-1. Exactly there are so many good teams from 1 to 8 that its anyone game really

 

[WCE Wizard]

Learned: Richmond losing away interstate to a grand total of two sides across all of 2017 & 2018 (the Grand Finalist and the current #1 side) means they can't travel.

Its only an issue if Richmond play Adealide, West Coast or Sydney in a prelim away from Melbourne, the chances of that happening are me winning the lottery. If you finish top 2 and the odds are your team will. Then its no problem.

 

[DangerSloane]

Liked: That the patronising and condescending crap that Richmond has endured for 37 years is no more, we are now despised by the general football community as represented by the Big Footy Main Board. Long may it continue.
Liked: Brisbane winning their first game, deserved and overdue, and the recruit guy kicking a "snag"

Hated: Being outworked and outplayed for 3 quarters. Kudos to West Coast as their running, ball use and marking was outstanding.

Learnt: That West Coast are now red hot premiership favourites... in May!! When will the football public and football media learn that the AFL is such a volatile competition. Last week Geelong was the realistic challenger to Richmond, this week it's a Melbourne v west Coast Grand Final, next week...

How good was Eagles' celebration. I mean everyone is pumped for their first goal, but his seemed to have a bit extra on it.

You must be excited about the CL final coming up. It hurts me to say but I hope Liverpool win

 

[DangerSloane]

Its only an issue if Richmond play Adealide, West Coast or Sydney in a prelim away from Melbourne, the chances of that happening are me winning the lottery. If you finish top 2 and the odds are your team will. Then its no problem.

Really?
The chance of the teams in 1st 4th 5th and 6th (including Port) are 1 in a million to finish top 2?

Id say the chances are actually pretty good.

 

[WCE Wizard]

Really?
The chance of the teams in 1st 4th 5th and 6th (including Port) are 1 in a million to finish top 2?

Id say the chances are actually pretty good.

Yeah but if West Coast or Adelaide were to finish 3rd or 4th for argument sake then our first final would be at the MCG.

Also Richmond has another 8 games at the G, that would take them to 15 wins, i am a very conservative fan mate, haha would rather be surprised

 

[This Is Anfield]

Wouldnt say red hot just yet, i think you boys have that covered. We still have a long way to go for that. Even the most passionate eagles supporters will tell you. I want to see how we go in a few more big games. Its only round 9 and a long way to go. However pleased to see how we are playing, i definately did not have us at 8-1. Exactly there are so many good teams from 1 to 8 that its anyone game really

Was having a dig at the media TBH. Round 9 to Round 23 anything can happen! Every win/loss is over analysed because there are so many talking heads.

How good was Eagles' celebration. I mean everyone is pumped for their first goal, but his seemed to have a bit extra on it.

You must be excited about the CL final coming up. It hurts me to say but I hope Liverpool win

More shitting bricks than excited! No idea how it will pan out.

 

[DangerSloane]

Yeah but if West Coast or Adelaide were to finish 3rd or 4th for argument sake then our first final would be at the MCG.

Also Richmond has another 8 games at the G, that would take them to 15 wins, i am a very conservative fan mate, haha would rather be surprised

Not having a go at all.
Just saying the way things are panning out with interstate sides possibly filling 4 of the top 6 conservatively... that there are a lot of combos where Richmond have an away prelim.

If they finish 3-4 or if they finish 1-2 and somehow lose their first final, they're very likely to cop an interstate prelim.

 

[Magpie Monopoly]

what does that make the pies? you conceded 4 goals in 5 minutes against us when you had a chance to win
mentally non existent?

2 down on the bench on a 3 day turnaround is what it makes it

 

[DangerSloane]

what does that make the pies? you conceded 4 goals in 5 minutes against us when you had a chance to win
mentally non existent?

They barely had a rotation.
Jeeze you have no clue. Why dont you let the adults talk.

 

[WCE Wizard]

Not having a go at all.
Just saying the way things are panning out with interstate sides possibly filling 4 of the top 6 conservatively... that there are a lot of combos where Richmond have an away prelim.

If they finish 3-4 or if they finish 1-2 and somehow lose their first final, they're very likely to cop an interstate prelim.

Oh yeah good point there excellent point, the beauty of finals

 

[Hobbes]

Learned: Richmond losing away interstate to a grand total of two sides across all of 2017 & 2018 (the Grand Finalist and the current #1 side) means they can't travel.

Don't be silly. They beat North Melbourne by almost two goals, and nearly five miles away from their home ground.

 

[HTT]

Learned: everyone’s so busy focussing on what grounds games are played at, that they can’t notice the real trend. Richmond’s poor 3rd quarters. Happened against Melbourne, Freo, North and now West Coast. That’s a good team, a middling team, a poor team, and Melbourne (whom I’m not willing to place). That’s at the G, Etihad, and interstate.
A lot of variables, but one thing’s constant - our poor 3rd quarters.

If I was an opposition side I’d be loading up for a big 3rd quarter

 

[Stocks_go_Up]

Learnt: Chris Scott still hasn't figured out how to play the MCG. Geelong are terrible at the MCG against teams that move the ball quickly.

 

[Final Siren]

Well not really.
8 of the teams play interstate every 2nd week.
Lets compare with the top interstate teams

West Coast have lost 0 of those 4 away games.
Adelaide have lost 1 of those 4 away games.
Port have lost 2 of those 5 away games.
Sydney have lost 0 of those 4 away games.

If you think 100% isnt different to 18% then maybe you need to reassess

I think it's silly to cherry-pick from a tiny sample size in order to generate inflated percentages.

The reality is that all of those teams tend to perform somewhat better at home than away interstate - with the exception of Sydney, who are being strange this year.

 

[Final Siren]

Learned: everyone’s so busy focussing on what grounds games are played at, that they can’t notice the real trend. Richmond’s poor 3rd quarters. Happened against Melbourne, Freo, North and now West Coast. That’s a good team, a middling team, a poor team, and Melbourne (whom I’m not willing to place). That’s at the G, Etihad, and interstate.
A lot of variables, but one thing’s constant - our poor 3rd quarters.

If I was an opposition side I’d be loading up for a big 3rd quarter

Richmond's 3rd quarters are only poor relative to Richmond's other quarters, which are very good. They're not poor compared to the league average. This was generated before last round, but:

From here: